SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[CajunMama]

Winds are causing cancellation of continental flights between lafayette and houston. I know it's windy out. We have a side fence that was damaged in rita and it's completely down now.

[JenBayles]

First warnings should be up soon, storms out west near Bellville-Hempstead are quickly going severe.

I agree, I was noticing that and this is just the start of what appears to be a long afternoon for much of the Eastern half of Texas. It looks like there will be a lot of training of these storms also, so some areas have a potential for flooding on top of the damage threat. Everyone stay alert and be safe.

Hey vb! I've been wondering where you were. Looks like a crazy day unfolding!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Winds are causing cancellation of continental flights between lafayette and houston. I know it's windy out. We have a side fence that was damaged in rita and it's completely down now.

999 mb (29.51") around San Antonio, 1004 mb at IAH. 1010 mb at LFT. Now, that is a manly-man (or womanly-woman) pressure gradient. I don't think LFT has a North-South runway. Been a while since I've flown from there, but at least I think Continental has replaced the little prop-job puddle jumpers with little jet powered puddle jumpers.

[southerngale]

Geez, it's windy out! The storms are still far away and I already lost electricity for over an hour today. When I called this morning to get an update, the recording said they expected to have it on by 3pm. Thank goodness it didn't take that long. I opened the windows to cool the house off and the wind was blowing small items around in my house! lol

With the last real threat of severe weather (when we were in a moderate risk about a month ago), I went to my parents house and it was much ado about nothing. Any reason to think this threat is worse? I DON'T want to leave my house, but it's not the safest place to be in severe weather (just one of the reasons I'm looking for a new house).

[southerngale]

I was busy all morning and didn't see anything weather-related until after my power came back on. I didn't realize there was a High Wind Warning. Also Lake Wind Advisory, Tornado Watch, Coastal Flood Advisory, etc. goodness!


High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
556 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...

.AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AND APPROACH THE AREA ON TODAY. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

LAZ041-042-051-TXZ215-216-181900-
/O.UPG.KLCH.HW.A.0001.080318T1200Z-080319T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.HW.W.0001.080318T1200Z-080319T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.LW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-080318T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.LW.Y.0016.080319T0000Z-080319T0600Z/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CAMERON...
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
556 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS...SUCH AS
TRASH CANS AND LAWN ORNAMENTS...THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY THE
STRONG WINDS. MOTORISTS TRAVELING ON AREA HIGHWAYS WILL ENCOUNTER
DIFFICULT DRIVING... ESPECIALLY IF OPERATING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SUCH AS TRACTOR TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING WHICH CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

[srainhoutx]

For those traveling by air, FAA website info for IAH...snipet...

Due to WEATHER / WIND, there is a Traffic Management Program in effect for traffic arriving George Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport, Houston, TX (IAH). This is causing some arriving flights to be delayed an average of 5 hours and 6 minutes. To see if you may be affected, select your departure airport and check "Delays by Destination".

http://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp

It's going to be a long afternoon/evening traveling in and out of IAH for sure.

[JenBayles]

Geez, it's windy out! The storms are still far away and I already lost electricity for over an hour today. When I called this morning to get an update, the recording said they expected to have it on by 3pm. Thank goodness it didn't take that long. I opened the windows to cool the house off and the wind was blowing small items around in my house! lol

With the last real threat of severe weather (when we were in a moderate risk about a month ago), I went to my parents house and it was much ado about nothing. Any reason to think this threat is worse? I DON'T want to leave my house, but it's not the safest place to be in severe weather (just one of the reasons I'm looking for a new house).

'gale - the last couple of expected storms couldn't break the cap here in Houston. Not so this time around, but I haven't looked at Beaumont area. Maybe someone else can check those soundings for you?

We lost power here a couple times yesterday afternoon due to the wind. I'm charging up my battery-operated TV/DVD just in case it goes again today. Pretty cool gadget I got when Rita threatened, and I've used it several times. It works on rabbit ears or cable, and also has a charge connection for use in the car.

[CajunMama]

Some schools in cameron parish are closing early. The roads are flooding because of the higher tides caused by the wind. There's already water over some of the roads. Also there is a marsh fire down there that the wind isn't helping.

[JenBayles]

Winds appear to be backing off a bit for the past couple of hours under the Bear Creek Dome. It's either nothing, or high gusts for a short time. I'm ready for the end of the wind if nothing else - I'm sick of cleaning tree trash out of my pool!

[CajunMama]

I wish it were dying down over here. We are having steady 25mph winds with gusts up to 43mph.

[KatDaddy]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
5 products issued by NWS for: 5 Miles NNW Cuero TX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC123-182015-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0029.080318T1908Z-080318T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
208 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DEWITT COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.

* AT 208 PM CDT...NWS RADAR SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEWITT
COUNTY...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE YORKTOWN...CUERO...WESTHOFF
AND HOCHHEIM.

AT 208 PM THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER DEWITT COUNTY AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 60 MPH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2887 9730 2892 9743 2882 9757 2900 9776
2919 9752 2939 9723 2911 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 196DEG 40KT 3132 9656

[jasons2k]

First Tornado Warning:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
235 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS
SOUTHEASTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
FLOUR BLUFF...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF CC NAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CC NAS BY 240 PM CDT...
FLOUR BLUFF BY 245 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

[JessRomero]

Well it is WINDY here geez! I am kinda worried being home with my kids by myself with this storm coming through I sure hope it doesn't get to bad but the way they r making it sound it is going to be crazy! I am turning my a/c down to cool the house off so if the power goes out so it won't get hot in here fast! SouthernGale I completely understand with what ur saying about the winds blowing stuff around u should of seen me and my 2 yr old and 1 yr old out side trying to play that was a sight! lol Well I hope they r making this out worse than what it will be! I just finished the outside of my house this week from rita I swear if this storm tears anything off I am going to have a FIT!

[Ed Mahmoud]

RUC sounding for 4 pm looks quite supportive of severe storms and tornadoes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

More squall line, less tornadoes?

GIVEN THE LINEAR STRUCTURE THAT HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED IT APPEARS A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
BUT MARGINAL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPRESSING THE
INSTABILITY OVER AN OTHERWISE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MID
DAY SOUNDINGS FROM LCH/SHV/LZK ALL SUPPORT STRONG/DEEP ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STORM MODE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR MAY PRIMARILY BE LINEAR ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT. EVEN
ALONG THE INCREASING SQUALL LINE SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

Relevant snip of new SWODY1

[JenBayles]

It's held off so long today I'm beginning to wonder if the BC Dome will prevail as usual...

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THE CAP
HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPRESS THINGS OVER THE COASTAL AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONE STORM DID BREAK THROUGH THE CAP EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN BRENHAM AND CLL. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE WAS
LOCATED AT 1930Z FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO CRP. EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER 20Z. COMPARING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND CONTINUITY...EXPECT THE LINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.

SOME SHORT TERM ISSUES INCLUDE SURFACE WINDS AND THE SEVERE
THREAT. THROUGH 00Z...WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 45 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WILL SEE PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. EXPECT MOST OF THESE INLAND
COUNTIES TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND SUNSET. OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THE ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO BE MORE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME THREAT TO THE SOUTH. THE SQUALL LINE HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ONCE MORE. WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES
IN FOR A PART OF THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS IS
DOWNPLAYING THIS EVENT A BIT MORE. OTHERWISE...A MILD WEATHER
PERIOD IS IN STORE INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

[jasons2k]

Jen, the squall line will be solid when it comes through.

We haven't see much today as the clouds prevented anything from busting the cap and forming ahead of the line, except for that one storm earlier near Hempstead...

[JenBayles]

jason - I've seen this too many times. A "solid" squall line bears down and magically parts around the Bear Creek Dome. With the cap holding solid all day, I'll bet it splits the line.

[Ed Mahmoud]

jason - I've seen this too many times. A "solid" squall line bears down and magically parts around the Bear Creek Dome. With the cap holding solid all day, I'll bet it splits the line.

There is no geographic feature I can see that would make storms avoid someplace just West of Houston on I-10.


PDS Watch a about 4 hours old, and not a tornado warning yet inside the watch boundaries, and so far the line isn't looking super impressive. Seems like SPC watches bust more around Houston in general than most places in the US, but until the line passes, something could still pop.