Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

DEATH TOLL RISES AS RECORD RAINFALL CONTINUES IN EL SALVADOR

The rains have continued today in El Salvador the effects from this event are:
-32 deaths.
-150 000 people affected directly or indirectly
-18845 homes have been flooded
-More than 32000 people have been displaced.

Here you will see different galleries from the tragedy (in Spanish): http://mediacenter.laprensagrafica.com/galerias/

Official numbers from the emergency in El Salvador

The highest rainfall registered yesterday was 297.5 mm/11.71 inches. Here's the map with the rainfall registered yesterday:



The total rainfall since the event began has reached record levels never seen before, the wettest place has been Huizucar with 1267 mm/49.88 inches in just 7 days! Most of the southern half of the country has registered at least 20 inches. This map shows the rainfall in the country in the last 168 hours:

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

Marcocane,that is an immense tragedy that has occured over there. Hopefully,things return to normal as soon as possible.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL MOVE TO 30 DEGREES NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CUTOFF LOW EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY...BUT THE STRONG NORTH JET...OVER 100 KNOTS AT 250
MB...WILL CAUSE ANOTHER TO QUICKLY RE-FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND COME WITHIN 400 MILES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MAINTAINING EAST TO
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE NOW IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH THE AREA HAS BORNE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE MOVED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO
RICO. THE MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWS ONLY FILAMENTS OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NORTH AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO COME IN TODAY. SOUNDERS ALSO SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS BEEN DECREASING FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AGAIN TODAY...SOME AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RECEIVING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND DECENT HEATING. THESE
AREAS ARE MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND DOWNSTREAM FROM EL
YUNQUE...WHICH WITH CURRENT FLOW...WOULD INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN TRUJILLO ALTO AND DORADO. ALTHOUGH SOME
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVY WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. BUT...MORE IMPORTANTLY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL ABATE. ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW WILL CROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BOOST THE STRENGTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL FORM IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

THE 17/18Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS MORE FAVORABLE TO THE PROSPECT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALBEIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TO
BRING WINDS OR RAIN TO THE AREA...BUT THE 18/00Z RUN LEAVES ONLY A
WEAK LOW THAT CROSSES THE WESTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO...AND THIS
WOULD BRING MORE SHOWERS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY FAVOR THE
LATTER SITUATION DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS A FIXTURE OF
THE ATLANTIC AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF LOWS THAT HAVE THUS
FAR PREVENTED MUCH TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH ABOUT
18/12Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 18/16Z MAINLY IN
WESTERN PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AND MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT
TJMZ/TJBQ AND POSSIBLE AT TJSJ THRU 18/23Z. WINDS AT THE SFC FROM
THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK IN
THE AREA...SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS DECREASE AS
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO NAVIGATION OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD ARISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 78 / 20 10 10 30
STT 87 77 88 77 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

They continue to advertise about possible Tropical Cyclone formation by next week in Caribbean,so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE OCT 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST WITH TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC TO RETROGRESS
INTO OUR AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. TROF WILL LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 650 MB WITH MAINLY ISOLD TO SCT SHALLOW
CONVECTION NEXT FEW DAYS. RIDGE LIFTS OUT WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TUTT
TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INVERTED TROF
AT THE SFC. AREA LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE UPPER CONVERGENT SIDE OF
TUTT SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

NEXT WEEK THINGS LOOK TO GET MORE INTERESTING. TROF LIFTS OUT
WITH A H25 ANTICYCLONE AND BROAD LOW PRES AT THE SFC ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TC
FORMATION. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE ATLC...ONE
CURRENTLY APPROACHING 50W AND ANOTHER LARGER ONE NEAR 30W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC AND REACH OUR AREA DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD SERVE AS SEEDLING FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. PAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN TC
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WINDWARDS WITH THE 12Z RUN SUGGESTING
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF 70W. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...IT
APPEARS THAT VERY DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT. ATTM PREFER A SLOWER
SOLUTION THAN THE 12Z GFS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFES WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVING NEXT WED OCT 26 RATHER THAN MON AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 12Z GFS. WITH A DEEP TROUGH LOCKED ACROSS ERN NOAM AND A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70W...ANY TC DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
STEERED THIS WAY. LATEST CPC GLOBAL TROPICS HAZARD ASSESSMENT PAGE
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN UNDER HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND ABOVE AVG RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 0 10 20 20
STT 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 30 30

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Little earthquake felt in Guadeloupe by many citizens of Guadeloupe given our local radio RCI. If i have more infos about that i will keep you informed...
Gustywind

[Macrocane]

Hi. The death toll didn't increase today and stood at 32 but the number of people displaced from their homes increased to 35000. Thankfully the rains today have been much more lighter than in previous days although tomorrow the rains are expected to increase again as the first significant cold front of the season approaches the region and interacts with the monsoon trough, after that the skies will become clear again, northerly winds will increase and we will see the sun after 10 gray days. The highest accumulations since the event began on October 10 are:

Huizucar 1386 mm/54.57 inches
Los Naranjos 1188 mm/46.77 inches
Chiltiupan 1114 mm/43.86 inches
Juayua 1120 mm/44.09 inches
Santiago de María 1000 mm/39.37 inches

All of them are well above the previous record of wettest event that was held by Hurricane Mitch with 861 mm/33.90 inches from October 28 to November 4.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST WED OCT 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A TUTT LOW
NO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DIGS IN AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OF WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH PW AT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WE HAVE HAD THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA AND THE TUTT LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ON THOSE DAYS.

FURTHER INTO THE LONG RANGE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT FOR THE
WEEKEND...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENTER THE AREA.
PW AT VALUES ARE SHOWN AS LOW AS 1.2 INCHES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. IN ADDITION...GFS
SHOW UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEING MORE PRONOUNCED DURING THE
WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO
THE REDUCED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT.

THE MODELS KEEP INSISTING THAT AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
ENTER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...EITHER AS A TROPICAL WAVE OR A BROAD LOW. THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS OVER ERN PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH ABOUT
19/12Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 18/16Z MAINLY IN
WESTERN PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT
TJMZ THRU 19/23Z. LLVL WINDS AT THE SFC FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 30 20 20 50
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 20 20 40

[Macrocane]

After a small relief yesterday the rains increased again after midnight and it's still raining hard over the country, this will be the last day of the longest and wettest rain event ever registered in El Salvador. The first image shows the cold front that re-inforced the rains (but th high behind them will put an end to them), the second one is a radar image from a few minutes ago and shows rainfall in most of the country.

[cycloneye]

Little earthquake felt in Guadeloupe by many citizens of Guadeloupe given our local radio RCI. If i have more infos about that i will keep you informed...
Gustywind

Gusty,I posted the graphic of the quake at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic activity thread.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2201591#p2201591

[Macrocane]

This is the rainfall registered in the last 24 hours in El Salvador, most of it fell overnight. As you can see there are still very high amounts of rainfall the highest was 131.4 mm/5.17 inches in Los Naranjos

[Gustywind]

Little earthquake felt in Guadeloupe by many citizens of Guadeloupe given our local radio RCI. If i have more infos about that i will keep you informed...
Gustywind

Gusty,I posted the graphic of the quake at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic activity thread.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2201591#p2201591

Thanks always there... Cycloneye

[msbee]

macrocane
I am so sorry to hear of the loss of life and flooding in your country
Barbara

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED OCT 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT LATE
THURSDAY WITH TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC TO RETROGRESS INTO
THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. TROF LIFTS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 20N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N AND
50W XPCD TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIB SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MID UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 600 MB. RIDGE HOLDS FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH
ONLY ISOLD SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST PR.

TUTT ACROSS CNTRL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT RETROGRESSES
TOWARD THE AREA OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS. MODELS SHOW AREA UNDER UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW SO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. FEATURE OF INTEREST IS LARGE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N AND 50W WHICH HAS SHOWN A SIG INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION OVR THE PAST TWO HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CARIB SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD SERVE AS
SEEDLING FOR TC FORMATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM BUT LATEST 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS SYSTEM REMAINING WELL SUPPRESED
TO THE SOUTH WITH A STRONGER RIDGE NOW BUILDING ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AS COMPARED TO PAST FEW RUNS. BOTTOMLINE IS TROPICS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL TC FORMATION OVR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 85 / 20 20 50 50
STT 79 88 79 86 / 30 30 40 40

[Macrocane]

macrocane
I am so sorry to hear of the loss of life and flooding in your country
Barbara

Thanks Barbara, the rains registered today have been heavy but fortunately it's the last day for this event and tomorrow drier air behind a cold front will bring the much needed relief. According to the latest report the death toll is still 32 but the number of people with damaged or destroyed homes has increased to 48700.

This map shows the rainfall registered in the last 9 days (not including today's rains), the wettest place is still Huzucar with 1470 mm/57.87 inches



This map shows the rainfall from this event compared with other events, as you can see the total rainfall is well above the previous record (Mitch) although the record for highest rainfall in 24 hours is still held by Agatha. The SNET released the graphic yesterday so that's why the bar doesn't reach 1470 mm yet.

[cycloneye]

Finnaly good news for you Marcocane and hopefully,a dry pattern develops to allow things to return to normal over there.

Here is the 8 PM EDT discussion of the two waves that are east of the Lesser Antilles.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N33W TO 13N38W TO 8N40W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N49W TO 5N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. After a few good days,it looks like bad weather will move into the Eastern Caribbean by early next week,so be on alert.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST THU OCT 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE WIND IS EXPECTED MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY. NUMERICAL MODELS STILL INSIST ON BETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GENERAL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE THE SAME AS IT HAS
BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING NORTH AS A
TUTT LOW APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS TE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND STREAMERS COMING OFF THE USVI AND EL YUNQUE
RAIN FOREST WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND... DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS THE TUTT LOW APPROACHES
OUR AREA...HOWEVER...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
TUTT LOW...LIMITING CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
COMBINATION OF THE ALREADY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THOSE DAYS AND
DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN
YESTERDAY...BRINGING THE WAVE ON EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE ON MONDAY SEEMS TO BE SHALLOW...AS THE SAME MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE
OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES
OF MORE THAN 2.2 INCHES FOR TUESDAY AS THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AT THE SURFACE AND AT THE MID LEVELS. SO EXPECT AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS OVER ERN PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH ABOUT
20/12Z. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 20/16Z
MAINLY IN WESTERN PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT TJMZ THRU 19/23Z. LLVL WINDS AT THE SFC FROM THE
EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AFT 20/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 75 / 30 70 70 20
STT 88 79 86 79 / 30 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Macrocane]

THE SUN FINALLY SHINES OVER EL SALVADOR

The sun is finally shining for El Salvador after the longest and wettest rain event ever registered in the country. The patterns has completely changed and now we have mostly clear skies, with northerly winds blowing thanks to the fisrts cold surge of the season, actually the minimum temperatures registered today were the coldest in 6 months, I will post them tomorrow.

Unfortunately even if the sun shines the damages are already donde and the disaster left:
-32 fatalities
-at least 52000 people homeless or with flooded homes
-85% of the coast is flooded
-all the rivers in the country overflowed
-The roads in the country have been cut because of the floods and mudslides
-20000 homes have been damaged
-70 schools have been damaged
-24 bridges were affected, 18 destroyed.
Here's the link with those official numbers (in Spanish): Afectaciones por depresión tropical 12E y bajas presiones

And here you can see one of today's newspapers (in Spanish as well) with pictures and information of the emergency: http://epaper.laprensagrafica.com/20111020/default.html?pageNumber=1

[PTrackerLA]

Wow some of those totals are nearly 50" of rain!! That's unbelievable sorry to hear about all the loss of life and damage .

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP
OF HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA