Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF
MARGARITA ISLAND VENEZUELA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LARGE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
921 PM AST MON OCT 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM NORTH OF
VENEZUELA WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS DENSE FOG COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAYEY MOUNTAIN
RANGE.

CONVECTION ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF BROAD LOW PRES AREA NORTH OF
VENEZUELA WILL SKIRT THE FAR SRN CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST PR ON NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS. HAVE LOWERED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
FOR TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 00Z JSJ RAOB AROUND
H85. ISOLD OVR LAND AREAS AND SCT OVER WATERS. AREA UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TOMORROW SO ISOLD CVRG SHOULD SUFFICE. MOISTURE
INCREASES FURTHER ON WED WITH PW UP TO 2.0 INCHES AND SHOWALTER
INDEX BECOMING NEGATIVE. ANTICIPATING DEEP CONVECTION TO ERUPT WED
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PR.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BOTH WANE RAPIDLY WED EVENING BEHIND
EXITING LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH A RETURN TO TYPICAL TRADE WIND
CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TISX AND TKPK OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WITH -SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
XCPT WEST PR TERMINALS TUE NIGHT THRU WED MORNING IN MDT
SHRA/TSRA. TSTMS LIKELY AT JMZ WED AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS FROM WED NIGHT ON THRU SAT WITH JUST
YOUR TYPICAL TRADE WIND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT ACROSS BOTH ATLC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. A SMALL NORTH SWELL GROUP
WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS ON FRI WHICH COULD
RAISE SEAS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 86 / 40 40 50 50
STT 78 88 78 87 / 60 60 50 50

[Macrocane]

COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPS IN MONTHS REGISTERED YESTERDAY IN C.A.

The cool temperatures have continued in Central America and the lows registered yesterday were the coolest in several months, the highs were also cooler than normal in all the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F) Coldest since March 14
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.2°C (59.4°F) Coldest since February 16
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.5°C (50.9°F) Coldest since March 23
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.7°C (40.5°F) Coldest since May 8
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F) Coldest since April 14
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.5°C (61.7°F) Coldest since March 27
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.4°C (48.9°F) Coldest in El Salvador since April 8
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F) Coldest since March 27
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F) Coolest since May 17
Boquete, Panama 13.0°C (55.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30°C (86°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.1°C (62.8°F)

[cycloneye]

TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 83.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST. RINA IS SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BONAIRE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[BZSTORM]

4pm press release from NEMO Belize:
National Emergency Management Organization
“Preserving Life and Property”
DATE: Monday 24th, October 2011 TIME: 5:00 pm


NEMO PRESS RELEASE #2
REVISED


At 3:00pm the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.1 N, Latitude and 83.1 W, Longitude or about 350 miles east-southeast of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.

The NEMO National Executive Committee met and the following public advisory for the Country will be placed into action:

NEMO declares Phase II-Red 1, Hurricane watch from Belize City Northward to the Belize Mexican Border.

Water Taxi operations may be suspended for tomorrow due to the possible evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker. The public is to take note that this will affect their travel plans tomorrow.

School will be closed for San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow. The UB Gymnasium will be used as shelter for San Pedro and UB Scarlet Macaw for Caye Caulker. The Coast Guard will coordinate Caye Caulker evacuation.

Some of the public transportation in the North of the country will be disrupted to assist with coastal to inland evacuation. The public is to take note that this will affect their travel plans tomorrow.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Rina. Please continue listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service.

:-End of Release -:

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST TUE OCT 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ALMOST NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE IS BRINGING
THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...AS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 300 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PW VALUES WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FROM 1.6 INCHES TO
AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL
INDUCE A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINALS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS OF
TJPS AND TJMZ.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 86 77 / 20 50 40 20
STT 88 78 87 79 / 20 60 20 20

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ARUBA...CURACAO
AND BONAIRE...THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,you are out of the warning area right?

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST TUE OCT 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EAST AND MOVE INTO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE BROAD SURFACE LOW.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BROUGHT SOME
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
PUERTO RICO...AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES
WEST. AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
ONLY PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PARTS OF
PR THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR/IFR CONDS OVER THE LOCAL TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY TJMZ AND TJPS. IN ADDITION...PASSING SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA EN ROUTE BTWN EASTERN PR AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ACCOMPANYING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOV ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PREVAILING E TO ENE WINDS AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 40 20 20
STT 78 87 79 88 / 60 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,a big change from those very wet days over there for sure.

[BZSTORM]

The following is a press release from the Belize National Emergency Management Organization.

NEMO urges the public to pay keen attention, listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service. Rina is likely to become a powerful hurricane.
------------------------------

NEMO Public Advisory #3 - Hurricane RINA By NEMO Information Unit Oct 25, 2011, 9 a.m.

NEMO PRESS RELEASE #3

At 9 a.m. the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.4 N, Latitude and 83.9 W, Longitude or about 284 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west northwest at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. TS force winds extends out to 115 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 15 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become to major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.

The NEMO National Executive Committee met at 6:30 am this morning and discussed the projected forecast, reports and advisories. Hurricane Rina has moved both westward and northward closer towards Belize.

This morning at 6:25 a.m. 42 people were evacuated from Caye Caulker. The UB Scarlet Macaw building has been prepared to shelter the evacuees from Caye Caulker. 234 people were evacuated from San Pedro. The UB Gymnasium has been prepared to shelter the evacuees from San Pedro.

The Coast Guard has been warning and evacuating people from the atolls and surrounding cayes. The public is advised that prevailing sea and wind conditions can change suddenly even when the sky is clear. People who do not evacuate when the conditions are favourable must be aware that there will be no evacuation by NEMO once the weather conditions do not permit.

NEMO remains at Phase II-Red 1, Hurricane Watch from Belize City northward to the Belize/ Mexican Border.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. NEMO urges the public to pay keen attention, listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service. Rina is likely to become a powerful Hurricane. Stay alert! Stay tune! Take the necessary actions!

:-End of Release -:

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

[Macrocane]

Macrocane,a big change from those very wet days over there for sure.

Yes, thankfully that's true and we are still enjoying the dry and windy weather, the remain pretty cool and the highs are cooler than normal in most of the region (only Nicaragua has registered near normal highs). This are the temperatures registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.7°C (53.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.2°C (46.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.6°C (49.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17°C (63°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22°C (72°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.1°C (68.2°F) Coolest since April 21
Boquete, Panama 13.3°C (55.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.2°C (59.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24°C (75°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 29°C (84°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)

[BZSTORM]

NEMO PRESS RELEASE #5

At 6:00pm the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.5 N, Latitude and 84.5 W, Longitude or about 244 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extends out to 140 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 30 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become a major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.

With effect from 5:00 p.m today, NEMO suspended evacuation operations from the Cayes.

Boat owners are urgently advised to move their vessels to safe harbor. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea.

Coastal evacuation is being planned for 5:00 am tomorrow morning for Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. It is very likely that public transportation for Central and Northern Belize will be disrupted tomorrow to facilitate the possible evacuation of Belize City. NEMO will confirm this decision at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. In regards to this planned evacuation NEMO urges everyone to listen to their radio and television throughout the night.

Those persons who are capable of leaving on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate Belize City, rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. Communities of concern are Belize City, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill; Maskal; Bomba; Progresso; Copper Bank; Chunox up to Sarteneja. Evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker resumes in the morning at 6:00am if sea conditions permit.

Tomorrow school will be suspended for the entire Cayo, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including Belize City. School staff and management must report to school to prepare their schools. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.

It is anticipated that Phase III-Red 2 will be declared at 6:00 .a.m. tomorrow morning.

NEMO continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. STAY ALERT! STAY TUNE! TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS AS ADVISED!

[cycloneye]

...RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST WED OCT 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE SSW OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE EAST AND MOVE INTO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. AT AROUND MIDNIGHT
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES
OF ARECIBO WEST TO AGUADILLA. RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
OVER THIS REGION. IN THE LAST HOUR NEWLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE DOPPLER RADAR ALSO AN EVEN
LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SSW
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
TO THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FUEL LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND ONLY PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...AND
TISX THROUGH AT LEAST 26/16Z. BETWEEN 26/16Z-26/22Z...PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
NORTHERLY SWELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE FIRST NORTH
SWELL EVENT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL AROUND 2
METERS AND WITH PERIODS OF AROUND 10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL BE AT 15 KNOTS
THEREFORE EXPECT A SLIGHT CHOP OVER THESE SWELLS. THE NEXT SWELL EVENT
WILL OCCUR ON NOVEMBER 2...THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
AT AROUND 2 METERS AND PERIODS OD AROUND 10 SECONDS. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
LIGHTER WINDS FOR THESE EVENT WITH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 76 / 40 20 20 30
STT 88 77 87 79 / 30 20 20 20

[Gustywind]