Caribbean - Central America Weather

[BZSTORM]

Southern Belize (where I am) well out of the track bubble, Belize NEMO has stepped up to Phase III- Red -2
Evacuation of Border villages near Mexican Border resumes today these areas prone to flooding and can easily be cut of when this occurs. Although track has pulled Belize out of the window, Belize remains vigilant as historical experience with both Mitch & Iris have shown Oct storms in past do not always follow projected track.
Press Release #6 By Belize NEMO Information Unit

NEMO PRESS RELEASE # 6

At 6:00am the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.6 N, Latitude and 85.3 W, Longitude or about 198 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west at 4 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extends out to 115 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 25 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become a major Hurricane within the next 24 hours. NEMO declares Phase III-Red 2 with effect 6:00 a.m. today.

Evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker resumes this morning at 6:00 a.m. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea.

NEMO assisted evacuation will be conducted for the Belize, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts.

Communities of concern in Corozal District that will be evacuated are:
• Buena Vista will go to the R.C. Primary School
• Caledonia will go to the R.C. School
• Chunox will go to the Community Centre & Saint Viator H. Schoool
• Consejo will go to the CZL Town-CCC
• Copper Bank will go to the Orange Walk – Copper Bank RC School & Copper Bank Inn
• Fireburn will go to the Orange Walk-Multipurpose Building
• Progresso will go to the RC School &Community Centre
• Ranchito will go to the Community Centre
• San Victor will go to the RC School
• Sarteneja will go to the La Immaculada RC School & Saint Viator High School
• Yo Chen will go to the Cristo Rey Nazarene Church Bldg

Communities of concern in Orange Walk District that will be evacuated are:
• San Lorenzo will go to the Trial Farm Roman Catholic Primary School

Communities of concern in Belize District that will be evacuated are:
• Bomba will go to the Maskall Community Centre
• Boston will go to the King’s College Evangelical High School
• Davis and Grace Bank will go to the Orange Walk-Town Administration Building
• Western Paradise will go to the Belmopan-Garden City Primary School
• Free Town Sibun will go to the Belmopan – UB Jabiru Bldg
• Lords Bank will go to the La Immaculada Bldg 3, Orange Walk
• Rhaburn Bridge will go to the Orange Walk, Carmelita Government School
• St. Ann’s will go to the Community Centre
• St. Paul’s Bank will go to the Belmopan-Garden City Primary School
• Willows Bank will go to the Methodist Church & Belmopan-Garden City Primary School

There will be no evacuation of Belize City instead Shelters will be open as follows in Belize City:
• Mesoptamia will go to the Grace Primary & Salvation Army
• Freetown will go to the All Saints Pallotti
• Caribbean Shores will go to the Trinity Methodist
• Albert will go to the St. Ignatius Primary School (new bldg)
• Lake I will go to the St. Martin De Porres
• Port Loyola will go to the St. Johns Vianney
• Queen Square will go to the Queen Square Primary
• Fort George will go to the Pallotti High School
• Collet will go to the Gwen Liz.
• Pickstock (South) will go to the St. Martin de Porres
• Pickstock (North) will go to the Holy Redeemer

The normal bus schedule runs will continue today. If the need arises the public will be notified if bus transportation will be disrupted.

Schools have been suspended for the entire Cayo District, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including Belize District. School staff and management must report to school to prepare their schools. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters in Orange Walk, Corozal, Belize City and Belmopan. Shelters are expected to open this afternoon.

NEMO continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. STAY ALERT! STAY TUNE! TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS AS ADVISED!

:-End of Release -:

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

[Macrocane]

Yesterday temperatures in Central America
-Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras had cooler than normal lows, actually some places were very cold , the rest of the region had near normal lows.
-The highs were near normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, cooler than normal highs were registered in the rest of the countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.0°C (53.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.5°C (38.3°F) Coldest since April 14
Zacapa, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.3°C (48.7°F) Coldest in El Salvador since April 8
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F) Coolest since Septmeber 21
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.0°C (39.2°F) Coldest since Septmeber 15
Panama city, Panama 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.4°C (56.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.9°C (78.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.9°C (67.8°F)

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,good news that Rina is weakening.

HURRICANE RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1145 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED...

RECENT REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1230 PM
CDT...1730 UTC...IN PLACE OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


SUMMARY OF 1145 AM CDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED OCT 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST WHILE
LEAVING SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...GIVING US EASTERLY
WINDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE MORNING HOURS. EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOME AREAS RECEIVED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS.

THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA DOMINATES THE LOCAL PATTERN...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
ENTER THE AREA BUT GENERALLY UNDER A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WOULD BE EMBEDDED IN THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE OR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING AT TJMZ AND AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 26/22Z...IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 87 79 88 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD

[BZSTORM]

check out the 400km radar Rina very clearly seen - looks to small and compact much like Iris was.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-static

[BZSTORM]

and belize has issued all clear as of 5pm tonight - National Emergency Management Organization "Preserving Life and Property"
DATE: Wednesday October 26th, 2011

TIME: 5:00 p.m.

"ALL CLEAR DECLARED"

NEMO has declared the "All Clear" for the country of Belize with effect from 4:00 p.m. today.

Classes will resume tomorrow.

A Bus will depart Belmopan UB Gymnasium at 7:00, 8:00 and
9:00 a.m.
for all evacuees to be transported back to San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow. Boats will leave Brown Sugar between
8:30 a.m. and noon.

NEMO thanks all private sector and public sector personnel who assisted and supported the people of Belize in our time of threat for Hurricane Rina.

:- End of Release -:

Full article at
http://www.nemo.org.bz/nemonews/news_re ... cle_464.ph

[cycloneye]

and belize has issued all clear as of 5pm tonight - National Emergency Management Organization "Preserving Life and Property"
DATE: Wednesday October 26th, 2011

TIME: 5:00 p.m.

"ALL CLEAR DECLARED"

NEMO has declared the "All Clear" for the country of Belize with effect from 4:00 p.m. today.

Classes will resume tomorrow.

A Bus will depart Belmopan UB Gymnasium at 7:00, 8:00 and
9:00 a.m.
for all evacuees to be transported back to San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow. Boats will leave Brown Sugar between
8:30 a.m. and noon.

NEMO thanks all private sector and public sector personnel who assisted and supported the people of Belize in our time of threat for Hurricane Rina.

:- End of Release -:

Full article at
http://www.nemo.org.bz/nemonews/news_re ... cle_464.ph

That is great news for you over there. Hopefully,Rina continues to weaken and not affect much Cozumel and Cancun.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST THU OCT 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR REPORTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

THE GUANAJIBO RIVER CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF ITS BANKS THEREFORE
THE FLOOD WARNING WAS CONTINUED THROUGH 10 AM. THE RIVER IS
ALREADY SHOWING A DECREASING LEVEL TREND.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL GENERATE A MUCH
DRIER AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER COULD ALSO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS WEST SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING
AT TJMZ BTWN 27/17-21Z...IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA. AVG LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERLY
SWELL TO OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SUGGEST MOST OF
THE ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM OUR LOCAL WATERS...THEREFORE SEAS WILL
BE NOT AS BIG AS THE WATERS EAST OF ANEGADA. THE BUOY 41049 IS
REPORTING SWELL HEIGHT OF 9.2 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 11 SECONDS AND
THE BUOY 41047 IS REPORTING SWELL HEIGHT OF 7.2 WITH PERIOD OF 10
SECONDS. THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THESE SWELLS WILL BE ON FRIDAY
MORNING...PEAKING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 87 78 88 78 / 30 40 40 40

[BZSTORM]

Good Morning Carib friends this morning is cool and dry in southern Belize. Rina looks like shes falling apart fast so good news for Mexico. But got to wonder what the big blob hanging off Niguagua/Honduras is going to do, our met service is forcasting heavy thunderstorms and high winds for saturday & sunday.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/forecast/4-day-forecast so guessing this blob will end up on our doorstep. At least finally my internet seems to be back and working properly.

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

The temperatures are starting to rise in most of Central America as the high pressure that brought cooler air has weakened, a summary of yesterda temperatures:
-Cooler than normal lows in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Near normal lows in the rest of the region.
-Cooler than normal highs in Belize and Honduras. Near normal highs in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama although they're the warmest in more than 2 weeks. Warmer than normal highs in Nicaragua.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.9°C (53.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.5°C (54.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.4°C (39.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.2°C (68.4°F) Coolest since February 14
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)

[cycloneye]

Gusty and rest of Eastern Caribbean friends. It looks like next week we will have bad weather so let's be on alert.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU OCT 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL HELP AMPLIFY A WEAK TUTT WHICH NOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...TO JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIMITED
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST ATLANTIC
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
FRAGMENT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
NOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL INFLUENCES TO PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE MODERATE TRADES WILL HOWEVER
CONTINUE TO STEER MUCH OF THE RAINFALL QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND MAINLY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THEREFORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS OVERALL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST.
BY THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT RETROGRESSES WEST INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN... AND TUTT LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ITCZ MOISTURE TO
BE DRAWN UP ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...AT THIS
TIME LOOKING FOR AN OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUS BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH ALL SUGGEST A WETTER
WEATHER PATTERN...SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ UNTIL 27/22Z...IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL...WESTERN
INTERIOR...AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 20K
FT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT.

&&

MARINE...THE LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41049 WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
STILL SUGGESTS A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL SHOULD PEAK BY LATE FRIDAY
AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN BE TAKEN
OVER BY EASTERLY WIND GENERATED SWELL ACTION OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 20 20
STT 77 88 78 87 / 50 50 40 40

[Gustywind]

Gusty and rest of Eastern Caribbean friends. It looks like next week we will have bad weather so let's be on alert.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU OCT 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL HELP AMPLIFY A WEAK TUTT WHICH NOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...TO JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIMITED
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST ATLANTIC
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
FRAGMENT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
NOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL INFLUENCES TO PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE MODERATE TRADES WILL HOWEVER
CONTINUE TO STEER MUCH OF THE RAINFALL QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND MAINLY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THEREFORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS OVERALL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST.
BY THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT RETROGRESSES WEST INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN... AND TUTT LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ITCZ MOISTURE TO
BE DRAWN UP ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...AT THIS
TIME LOOKING FOR AN OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUS BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH ALL SUGGEST A WETTER
WEATHER PATTERN...SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ UNTIL 27/22Z...IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL...WESTERN
INTERIOR...AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 20K
FT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT.

&&

MARINE...THE LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41049 WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
STILL SUGGESTS A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL SHOULD PEAK BY LATE FRIDAY
AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN BE TAKEN
OVER BY EASTERLY WIND GENERATED SWELL ACTION OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 20 20
STT 77 88 78 87 / 50 50 40 40

Thanks Luis for this info , let's be on our guard as you well said.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...CENTER OF RINA PASSING JUST WEST OF COZUMEL...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO SAN FELIPE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST THU OCT 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO COLLAPSE OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS
AS TUTT PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. BROAD TROUGH
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH 00Z RAOB INDICATING 2.08 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND NO
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY
INMINENT DRYING OVERNIGHT SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS APPEARS ON TAP
FOR FRI PER LATEST 18Z GFS GUIDANCE AND ANIMATION OF THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT. WEEKEND APPEARS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT A SIG PATTERN
APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD TROUGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS TO START THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...
AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 28/12Z. BETWEEN 28/16Z-28/22Z...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 6-7 FT ACROSS LOCAL ATLC
WATERS IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SWELLS
WILL PEAK EARLY SAT AND THE BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ACROSS THE CARIB
WATERS SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FT IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. HAVE
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND KEPT IT BELOW SCEC BUT SWELLS WILL
BRING SEAS TO SCA ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 88 / 50 10 20 20
STT 80 87 80 87 / 40 10 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Prepare for a change in the weather from good to bad for the Eastern Caribbean starting on Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST FRI OCT 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
WEEKEND. RETROGRESSING TUTT WILL ENVELOP THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS WELL AS ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY AS WELL AS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTERS
OF SHALLOW CONVECTION MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH SOME
OF THE CELLS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. A RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC/CIMMS TPW ANALYSIS. A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS APPEARS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT PER LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE AND ANIMATION OF THE MIMIC TPW PRODUCT. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS SCATTERED CLOUD CLUSTERS ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLANDS
IN A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING RISK
OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...WITH PATTERN EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT RETROGRESSING WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ALLOWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW/TUTT...WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...
AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 28/12Z. BETWEEN 28/16Z-28/22Z...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 6-7 FT ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SWELLS
WILL PEAK EARLY SATURDAY AND THE BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FT IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 76 / 10 20 20 30
STT 87 78 88 79 / 10 40 40 30

[Gustywind]

I found this article pretty interresting especially for those who live in the Lesser Antilles and thus, the Greater Antilles...

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 143615.php

WEATHER: BEWARE OF THE "BARBADIAN".

Mr. a. France-Antilles Guadeloupe24.10.2011

They develop in a few hours, not far from our coast, and are difficult to predict their trajectories. Were dubbed these cyclones of the "Barbadian".

The harder the cyclone season is past. But it is also not even completed. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach - University of Colorado, globally recognized - specialists reminded on September 30 in announcing a very active season end in the Caribbean basin, up to a higher activity of more than 200 to normal (read our October 13 Edition).

We reach the end of October. The conditions of formation of cyclones Cape Verdeans - those formed from phenomena from the coast of Africa - are more truly met. Nevertheless, the heat of water, in the Caribbean Sea, remains higher than normal and the return of la Niña profile. It is enough to fear a continuation of the cyclonic activity in the Caribbean in November. With the emergence of hurricanes late, including a "Barbados". Cyclones so named because they form near the Caribbean, to Barbados. And be wary of the "Barbadian". Seriously. Some names are sufficient to illustrate this need of mistrust: Marilyn, José Tomas, to name a few, are phenomena Barbadians.

They hit by behind

"Barbados" are generally not very powerful. It is rare that they exceed the category of hurricane of class 2. Yet, they are dangerous, and sometimes produce more damage than to intense cyclones. For at least three reasons. The first, it is that their appearance is brutal and leaves little time for people to prepare. The second is that their path is very difficult to predict. Marilyn, in 1995, is a good illustration of these erratic trajectories. The last is that effects - including the swell - speakers in an unusual meaning and hit coast little protected and therefore vulnerable. At this level, any resident of the Leeward coast could forget Lenny (read here), even if it is not strictly speaking a "Barbados". Finally, these late cyclones occur late in the season, at a time where the population already, often lived several alerts and where vigilance is blunted. One of the last Barbados dated Tomas, illustrates all of these data. From a cloud mass that crossed the Atlantic evolves slowly, it had increased very quickly - within 24 hours - while it was more than 300 miles southeast of Barbados. It was on October 30, 2010. No model has seen him come, and populations alert implementation intervened only 18 hours before the event from its effects. Although it has peaked in class 2, he killed eight people in Saint Lucia and 35 in Haiti, through disastrous floods and mudflows... It was the final hurricane of the season 2010.

-Lenny, you remember?

November 13, 1999, a rainy disturbance develops in a broad low pressure area in the West of the Caribbean Sea. It is classified a tropical depression while its centre is positioned between the Honduras and the Jamaica. It evolved little over 24 hours, and then quickly explosively strengthens position 14 end of the day and at night. Class 2, Lenny Hurricane then moves eastward in a little classic, made trajectory in flows of Western sector at all levels. It passes within 400 km south of Hispaniola, and then strengthening again, after a dozen hours of respite. While the hurricane headed north-east to threaten the Virgin Islands, an unusual swell of West sweeping violently on the shores, usually protected, the islands of the Caribbean arc, including those located between Martinique and Montserrat. He struck the island of St. Croix 17 with the intensity of a hurricane of class 4, and then significantly slows its movement, and performs a small loop, becoming line East-West cyclone during 24 hours, on the islands of Anguilla, Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy, while he begins to weaken significantly. Violent wind and torrential rain has befallen these islands, already affected directly by José a month earlier. Losing his vigor, Lenny began a descent to the Southeast, becomes tropical storm, crosses Antigua 19, and passes a 40 km east of La Desirade 20 at the break of day.

Guadeloupe undergoes violent peripheral effects as early as 17 in the morning regards swell cyclonic of sector southwest to West, devastating on the West coast of the Basse-Terre, and 19 in the morning, with torrential rains causing severe flooding. 17, Cyclonic waves pass over the islets of the Cousteau reserve to boiling, which gives an estimate of wave of 10 to 13 metres height. Damage to boiling and Deshaies were considerable.

The damage of the swell and rain related to Lenny, in 1999, were considerable, including in Leeward coast.

-20 cyclonic phenomena

Since the beginning of the cyclone season, there are 20 cyclonic events. One remained at the stage of mere tropical depression, 15 - including the last three, Maria, Ophélia and Philippe - reached the tropical storm stage, 4 the hurricane, including 3 major hurricanes.

A 21st phenomenon could quickly appear.

In Caribbean indeed, "a cloud mass stagnates in the vicinity of the Honduras and the Nicaragua explains to weather France." It is linked to a low pressure area. Surrounding conditions become favourable to its strengthening. It is likely that this system is slowly changing to a cyclonic phenomenon in the coming days. »

-Alice, a record

Officially, the cyclone season on the Atlantic opens June 1 and ends November 30. But cyclones are sometimes out of season. Thus, the earliest hurricane is that appeared on March 7, 1908. The latest cyclone to date is Alice, appeared on December 31, 1954, and who lived even early January 1955.