MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302342Z - 310115Z
   
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ORGANIZED AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
   WRN IA.  WITH THIS LINE FORECAST TO EXIT WW 111 AND MOVE INTO ERN IA
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW
   OVER WRN IA...ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS
   CONVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CENTER /NOW OVER
   NERN KS/SERN NEB/ AND NEAR THE NOSE OF A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.
   
   
   AIRMASS ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO SWRN WI/NWRN IL APPEARS TO BE
   DRIER/MORE STABLE THAN AREAS FURTHER W.  HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF UPPER
   SYSTEM -- MARKED BY STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET EITHER SIDE OF
   THE MID MO VALLEY -- SHOULD ASSIST IN MAINTAINING AN ORGANIZED LINE
   OF STORMS AT LEAST ACROSS ERN IA.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND
   FIELD...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
   ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   42869424 43249360 43209214 42059173 40629181 40569332

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN OK...NWRN AR...NCENTRAL/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112...
   
   VALID 310148Z - 310345Z
   
   SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 112 THROUGH THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HRS. MAIN SVR THREATS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER ECENTRAL
   OK/NWRN AR...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/NRN TX. MAIN
   SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
   
   PERSISTENT SUPERCELL TSTM OVER HASKELL COUNTY WILL MOVE EWD AROUND
   30 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 112 /NWRN AR/ THROUGH 04Z. STG
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO. RECENT OBS OVER WRN/CENTRAL AR INDICATE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY.
   GIVEN CURRENT STORM/CLUSTER MOTION...THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY
   OUTRUN MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 04Z.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND AREAS EAST OF WW 112 IN
   WRN/CENTRAL AR MAY NEED AN ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 06Z. FURTHER
   SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
   TO MAINTAIN A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
   STG INFLOW. AGAIN STG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   FINALLY...THE CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
   SERN KS/NERN OK WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG
   WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LINEAR NATURE SUGGEST A
   LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   37519551 36839639 35729646 34899643 34349693 33869776
   33329817 32939709 32989537 33729522 34789453 35759363
   36489350 36499454 37009480 37219496

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WRN IL*
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 310157Z - 310300Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME INTO NERN AND E CENTRAL MO/W
   CENTRAL IL.  NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY
   ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.  BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT AN EWD
   CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION.  WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
   SUFFICIENT FOR -- AND SHEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR -- DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO INTO W
   CENTRAL IL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   40619027 39718956 37848979 37339191 38109205 40479312

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0829 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 111...
   
   VALID 310229Z - 310400Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM N
   CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO SERN KS AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL/MORE
   SCATTERED STORMS E OF THIS LINE OVER ERN MO.  ISOLATED STORMS ALSO
   CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MO AND INTO SRN IA JUST AHEAD OF MAIN
   UPPER CIRCULATION.
   
   THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF MO /MEAN-LAYER
   CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG
   AS 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES SHIFTING ACROSS MO SE OF
   MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION.  THERFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
   TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   WITH WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 31/04Z...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MO.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...
   
   39269404 40499436 41009382 40729343 36539163 36439460
   37889492

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 113...
   
   VALID 310508Z - 310615Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH/SHIFT E OF WW.  WATCH WILL BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 31/06Z.
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE MS RIVER/OUT OF WW 113.  WITH
   CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN IA...STRONGER
   CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO NWRN IL.  THEREFORE...WW
   WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...
   
   40679121 41989131 42018999 40689047

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NWRN AR/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112...
   
   VALID 310534Z - 310600Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA...THOUGH
   PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER SERN OK/NERN TX MAY
   LINGER BEYOND 31/06Z.
   
   TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ACROSS WW ATTM -- 0NE
   ACROSS NWRN AR AND THE OTHER OVER SERN OK/NERN TX.  STORMS OVER NWRN
   AR CONTINUE MOVING EWD...AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WW 112 INTO WW 115
   BY 31/06Z.  MEANWHILE...CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS
   PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- APPARENTLY WITHIN AREA OF WARM
   ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET.  THOUGH LONG TERM TREND
   WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD BE DOWNWARD AS LOW-LEVEL
   JET VEERS/MOVES EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSING UPPER SYSTEM...SEVERE
   THREAT MAY LINGER OVER A SMALL AREA FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.  WW MAY
   BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT
   OTHERWISE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 31/06Z.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   36329314 34859412 33399551 33519702 34249643 34859497

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN/ERN IL AND WRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 310658Z - 310830Z
   
   NARROW STRONG TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD AT
   AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE KSTL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL IL...ALONG THE NOSE
   OF 80+ KT H5 SPEED MAX.  TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF IND THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRONG UVV TRANSLATES EWD.
   THOUGH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIES ALONG/W OF THE MS RVR...STRONG
   SWLY H85 WINDS SEEM TO BE ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MSTR NWD AHEAD OF THE
   STORMS...RESULTING IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION.  EVENTUALLY...TSTMS
   SHOULD OUT PACE THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AND RESULT IN WEAKENING
   STORMS.  MOREOVER...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME ROOTED JUST
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LESSENING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. SO...DESPITE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS IN PLACE...THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO ERN IL AND WRN
   IND THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   38709072 39758984 41048939 41398880 41498742 40918635
   39748612 38788676 38168767 37618951 37779101

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 310713Z - 310815Z
   
   STRONG H5 JET OF 80+ KTS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
   MIDWEST WITH ATTENDANT LLJ SHIFTING NEWD WITH TIME.  AS SUCH...TSTMS
   ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...WITH THE TORNADO
   THREAT DIMINISHING.
   
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN OK AND NRN
   TX WHERE ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER MAY PERCOLATE MOST OF THE MORNING.
   FARTHER N...HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT SEEM MUCH SUPPORT THE
   REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.  AS A RESULT...CURRENT
   TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36449376 37349231 37519079 37068967 35899046 35149238
   35259424

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MI...MUCH OF IND...INTO E CNTRL/SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 311857Z - 312100Z
   
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
   ALLOWING FOR AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...EAST OF THE OZARK
   PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  MORE
   SPECIFICALLY...THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTH INDIANA...WITH MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING
   TO THE EAST...ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER 60S DEW POINTS HAS RECENTLY SURGED THROUGH
   SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
   INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DRY LINE STRUCTURE IS
   EXPECTED TO SET UP BY AROUND 21Z...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
   REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   AS INCREASING COOL/CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO
   WEAKENING INHIBITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF TERRA
   HAUTE INTO THE FORT WAYNE AREA...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21Z...BEFORE
   ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AREAS OF SOUTHERN
   ILLINOIS AROUND MT.VERNON.  GIVEN FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
   ...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT
   CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  DESPITE
   NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LARGE
   BENEATH 50 TO 60 KT 850 JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE
   IN ADDITION TO RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   41498596 42588468 42398381 40638481 39428601 38668647
   38058728 37838847 37998905 38598856 39828763 40198722
   40918656

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 311958Z - 312130Z
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER A BROAD ZONE FROM AR AND LA
   EWD INTO MS/AL/TN/KY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS NRN MS/AL AND WRN TN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING AS MID 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT NEWD
   OUT OF ERN TX/LA...WITHIN DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN
   WAKE OF STRONG TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE MODEST AT BEST AT 6.0-6.5 C/KM DUE TO WARMING ALOFT...THUS HAIL
   PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWERED IN 20Z OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
   PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OVER 50 KT. THEREFORE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR
   WIND MAY OCCUR. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   ESPECIALLY OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL AND SWRN MIDDLE TN WHERE MODERATE
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   32839214 34229245 36139292 36439067 37078845 37028810
   36378719 34218672 32018859 31758909 31719055 32019189

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 312141Z - 312315Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
   REGION OF ENHANCED...ALBEIT WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY
   LINE.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
   AXIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED
   FURTHER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BY APPROACH OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH.  UPPER IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS INTO AMPLIFYING BROADER
   SCALE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH IS TENDING TO INHIBIT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 01/00Z...NEAR THE
   JUNCTION/SAN ANGELO AREA.  DESPITE WARM/MOIST HIGH-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE
   AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG.  MOIST LAYER IS CAPPED BY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...BUT
   STILL SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
   
   31910123 32170066 32259988 31919940 30939939 30590042
   30620106 30970166 31030182

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...118...
   
   VALID 312203Z - 312300Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...
   SUPPORTED BY STRONGER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW WHICH IS
   SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  LEADING
   EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
   FEATURE IS NOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE
   AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA.
   INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SCATTERED VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
   TERRE HAUTE AREA BY 00Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   38788800 39558770 40168728 40568665 40948629 41558566
   42268484 42698465 42908435 42638363 41838387 41088422
   40348516 39348657 38738701 38518775

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AR INTO TN AND NRN MS/AL/NWRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 010130Z - 010300Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASING
THREAT WITH TIME.

SWLY FETCH OF RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FEED STORMS
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND PROFILER DATA
INDICATE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH MODERATELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ESPECIALLY INTO MIDDLE TN. WITH TIME...LOW
LEVEL JET WILL VEER AS UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD...WHICH WILL
DECREASE SHEAR PROFILES AND ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH CESSATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY THE
TIME WW 119 EXPIRES. THE THREAT HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...MOST LIKELY SUB-SEVERE...IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN MS AND AL WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2006

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...ERN THROUGH SRN IND AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...118...

VALID 010017Z - 010145Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 117 AND 118.
STORMS WILL APPROACH THE ERN PORTION OF THE WATCHES BY 01Z. WW MAY
BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SERN IND INTO WRN OH.

EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD
THROUGH NWRN OH INTO CNTRL AND SWRN IND. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 30 KT. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF BEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE
STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO OH WHERE LESS HEATING OCCURRED TODAY.
THIS COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR AS STORMS MOVE EWD.
HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME NEWD DESTABILIZATION INTO WRN OH THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2006


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY...SWRN OH THROUGH EXTREME SERN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120...

VALID 010338Z - 010445Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 30 MIN IN REMAINING PORTION OF
WW 120. BEYOND THIS TIME...ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
HAVE SHIFTED S OF WW 120 INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME NRN KY BY 04Z.

SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SWRN OH SWWD THROUGH EXTREME NRN KY INTO
SRN IND. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 20-25 KT. STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS IN
PROXIMITY TO FEED OF BETTER INSTABILITY...WHILE STORMS ON THE NRN
END WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT. OVERALL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOR
STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2006

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND THROUGH NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118...

VALID 010226Z - 010330Z

TORNADO WATCH 118 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND 03Z FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN
SRN IND AND NRN KY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING.

SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM WRN KY INTO SRN IND. THE LINE IS MOVING
SEWD AT AROUND 20 KT. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER STORMS TO PERSIST
ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE ACROSS SRN IND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
FEED OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL
AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2006


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...PAH...

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 010421Z - 010545Z

STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN TX MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

LATE THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN OK SWWD THROUGH
NWRN TX. WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NWD DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 KT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM FRONT IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVECTED NWD OVERNIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
WRN TX JUST S OF LUBBOCK WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF THE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THE UPPER
PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE PRIMARILY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MUCAPE SUGGEST A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL. LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER
BROAD AND IS FORECAST TO VEER WITH TIME. THIS SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NE INTO NWRN TX MAY BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2006


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX AND SWRN-SCNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 010707Z - 010930Z
   
   TSTMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL SPREAD ENEWD FROM WRN N TX
   INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH 12Z.  WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT FROM SERN OK SWWD INTO THE
   TX S PLAINS.  SLY 30-40 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY
   AND IS SUPPORTING ELEVATED MULTI-CELL TSTM CLUSTER OVER WRN N TX.
   AS THE LLJ VEERS THIS MORNING...TSTMS ARE APT TO MOVE/DEVELOP
   FARTHER N/NE ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH DAYBREAK. 
   
   CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO CLOSE
   PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  BUT...PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS
   WILL BE EMANATING FROM STEEP LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN STRONG TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH HAIL. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
   OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE NEAR-SFC INVERSION AND CLOUD BASE...GUSTY
   WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STORMS AS WELL.
   
   GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF HAIL SIZE AND SPATIAL COVERAGE...A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   34510051 34979900 35129706 34989644 34539623 33879634
   33459757 33329861 33249961 33610007

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN PA...CNTRL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 011139Z - 011415Z
   
   A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS /ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/
   AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL AS IT MOVES ACROSS EXTREME NERN
   PA...CNTRL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING.  WW IS
   NOT EXPECTED.
   
   LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   LEVEL LOW WAS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS REGION AT DAYBREAK
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME ACTIVE
   SINCE 09Z WITH A FORCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS WRN NY
   AND NCNTRL PA. THIS LINE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES
   ENEWD AT 30-35 KTS INTO CNTRL/ERN NY AND NERN PA BETWEEN 13-16Z AND
   INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTN. 
   
   INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BE MARGINAL...THOUGH A NARROW
   TONGUE OF 50-55F DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF
   THE LINE.  ANY POCKETS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BOOST BUOYANCY
   AND THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.  MOREOVER...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME AOA
   30-40 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC COULD CAUSE LOCAL OUTFLOW
   ACCELERATIONS/SMALL SCALE BOWS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT ISOLD
   DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SMALL
   HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   42117709 43277633 44137580 45067388 44687313 43957298
   43017311 42287329 41947381 41627555

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011606Z - 011800Z
   
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBILITY OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   A STRONGER RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/
   EASTERN PLAINS IS BECOMING JUXTAPOSED WITH ZONE OF STRONGER LOW/MID
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE OF LARGE NORTHEASTERN STATES UPPER
   TROUGH...AND AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR RECENT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
   ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS INHIBITION WEAKENS INTO EARLY
   AFTERNOON THROUGH A RATHER BROAD AREA OF EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   THOUGH...IN GENERAL...FLOW FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SHEAR SEEMS
   SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS
   DEVELOPING IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
   INITIAL STORMS...AND THIS THREAT COULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BECOMES
   INCREASING SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN PRESENCE OF DRY
   MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS BY PEAK
   HEATING.
   
   MOST CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH
   BROADER SCALE RIDGE COULD AID THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 21Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   35789620 36249569 36019416 35659271 35399165 34739115
   33979121 33249281 33259393 33629499 33889552 34679610
   34869614