MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1033 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA THRU THE DELMARVA PEN INTO SRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011633Z - 011830Z
   
   NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
   MARGINAL/LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EAST OF THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
   THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
   ...AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS
   OVERSPREADS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY
   18Z...MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA...WITH ACTIVITY
   GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...THE
   DELMARVA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY THROUGH NEW JERSEY BY 21Z.
   
   IN GENERAL...MOISTURE LEVELS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS...BUT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COULD COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT...
   CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG BY
   PEAK HEATING.  IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED AND COOL CYCLONIC
   FLOW REGION...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  OTHER STORMS FARTHER
   NORTH COULD ALSO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...
   
   36507587 36307670 36547813 36947830 37597767 38147706
   38797655 39437597 39937521 40367449 40417419 40317376

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE CO/WRN KS SOUTHWARD THRU FAR WRN OK AND
   MUCH OF THE TX PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011812Z - 011945Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 03/21Z...WITH INCREASING
   TORNADIC POTENTIAL BY 02/00Z.  A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   BY 20Z.
   
   UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL
   CONSIDERABLE.  BUT...IT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH SHEARING IMPULSE COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN BROKEN
   LINE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...AS IT LIFTS OUT OF
   BROADER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH INTO CENTRAL U.S.. RIDGE. DRY LINE IS
   EXPECTED TO SHARPEN NEAR THE ELKHART/AMARILLO/LUBBOCK AREAS BY PEAK
   HEATING...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD
   QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE IN STRONGLY SHEARED...CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT.
   
   MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
   ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE...CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH
   A LINE OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE SHORTLY AFTER
   INITIATION...SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE.
   CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DODGE CITY...GAGE
   AND CHILDRESS/ALTUS AREAS BETWEEN 21-00Z... ENCOUNTERING INCREASING
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND MID/UPPER JET STREAK
   BEGINS TO NOSE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
   COLORADO...HODOGRAPHS/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BY EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...
   
   35880221 36740221 38070159 38750044 38349942 37459977
   36139957 34969937 34269984 33390101 33000228 33580244
   34250235 35000200

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012021Z - 012145Z
   
   WE ARE MONITORING THE DRYLINE SOUTH OF LBB FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN
   ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE E OF DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES
   RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. MODIFIED 18Z MIDLAND SOUNDING YIELDS
   STRONG INSTABILITY USING LOWER 60S DEWPOINT WITH LITTLE INHIBITION.
   ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STRONG FARTHER E AS SEEN ON OUN
   AND FWD SOUNDINGS...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
   TEMPERATURES WITHIN CAPPING LAYER AND REDUCE CIN. GIVEN A FEW MORE
   HOURS OF HEATING...AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE...AT
   LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. EXISTING SHEAR PROFILES
   AT 20Z ALREADY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH TIME AS
   LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THUS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   33820150 33799906 32549891 31869885 31660123 32350131
   33190139

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS INTO SW NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 012116Z - 012245Z
   
   AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   SURFACE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO IS SLOWLY DEEPENING...AND
   FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
   PERHAPS SHIFTING TOWARD THE GOODLAND AREA BY 02-03Z.  THIS WILL
   OCCUR AS INITIAL SHEARING IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
   TOWARD CREST OF BROADER SCALE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY REGION.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF LOW...BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   IN PROCESS OF RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.  SIMILAR
   DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF NORTH PLATTE
   NEB BY AROUND 00Z.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY
   UNDERWAY ALONG DRY LINE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH WARM SECTOR
   TO THE NORTH/EAST...BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. THIS
   IS EXPECTED BY 00Z...WITH FURTHER INCREASE EAST OF GOODLAND AND
   NORTH PLATTE INTO THE HILL CITY/GRAND ISLAND AREAS THROUGH 03Z.
   
   SHEAR PROFILES IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE RANGING
   FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ARE ALL LIKELY.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   38460149 39060152 40330121 40970032 41179889 40969832
   40199797 39309868 38699929 38490010

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0408 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS / WRN OK / ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...
   
   VALID 012208Z - 020015Z
   
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL.
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E OF DRYLINE WHERE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME
   VERY UNSTABLE. SEVERAL CLUSTERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION...OVER
   SWRN KS...NEAR BGD AND SW OF CDS AT 22Z. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
   OVER FAR WRN OK WHERE TCU ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING.
   
   AREA PROFILERS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WITH 50+ KT
   MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 3 KM ACROSS W TX. LOW LEVEL JET/850 FLOW IS
   ALSO INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD
   BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME...WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES
   INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   33779854 33780127 38190145 38199848

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0537 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK INTO CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...123...
   
   VALID 012337Z - 020100Z
   
   ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   KS INTO SRN OK...
   
   MULTIPLE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS WRN KS...SWD INTO
   NWRN TX.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS IT SPREADS
   DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS AND OK OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS LLJ WILL INCREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR.  THIS WILL
   AID LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STORM INFLOW FOR MAINTAINING SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES EAST OF CURRENT WATCHES.  TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
   FOR THIS REGION BY 01Z.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   34329854 38179837 38989733 38189608 34419658

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...
   
   VALID 020030Z - 020200Z
   
   ...LARGE HAIL MAY STILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...
   
   WARM ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AID NWD
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR THIS EVENING.  WITH LOSS
   OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE
   LESSENING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS NWD PROPAGATION.  GIVEN DYNAMIC
   PROCESSES ARE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO KS...LARGE
   SCALE PROCESSES WILL NOT PROVE TOO SUPPORTIVE FOR SUSTAINING
   ORGANIZED SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER DARK.
   
   NOT ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
   
   33729237 34549423 36209493 36029262 34299111

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020138Z - 020315Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS SERN NEB AND NERN KS.  SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON...
   
   SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS BECOMING A BIT
   MORE ORGANIZED AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS EVENING.  IT
   APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EAST AND NORTH OF CURRENT
   TORNADO WATCHES INTO A SLOWLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS CAPABLE OF
   MAINTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.  STRENGTH OF UPPER
   SHORTWAVE/ENHANCED LIFT SUGGEST SQUALL LINE WILL NOT DECREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   38689709 40089786 40439930 41319826 40489613 38379551

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020153Z - 020330Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
   SWRN/CNTRL TX...
   
   CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED OVER SWRN TX ALONG DRY LINE FROM
   ERN PECOS COUNTY INTO REAGAN COUNTY.  DRT SOUNDING AT 00Z WAS NOT
   TERRIBLY CAPPED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL CAA NOTED AROUND 700MB.  IT
   APPEARS SRN END OF PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX AIDING THIS CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM.
   ALTHOUGH FWD SOUNDING EXHIBITED QUITE A BIT MORE INHIBITION...SHEAR
   PROFILES SEEM FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING SQUALL LINE STRUCTURE AS IT
   SPREADS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
   
   30700178 31520103 32200013 31669901 30630096

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0817 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...
   
   VALID 020217Z - 020345Z
   
   ...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS OK...
   
   SQUALL LINE HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS WRN OK AND IS SURGING ENEWD AT
   ROUGHLY 35KT.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED IN
   INTENSITY ALONG THIS LINE AND HAVE BECOME ILL DEFINED AS CELL
   MERGERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES. IT APPEARS THE
   GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LARGE
   HAIL...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF
   BOW-TYPE FEATURES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   36699636 34939684 34059792 34239894 34989825 36719788

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CST SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL MO...ECNTRL OK AND
   NWRN/NCNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020644Z - 020845Z
   
   LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM ERN OK AND ERN KS TOWARD WRN MO
   AND NWRN AR EARLY THIS MORNING.  BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE WILL BE
   MOVING ACROSS WS 127 AT 45 KTS INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR WITH GUSTY
   AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH 8-9Z.  HOWEVER...
   DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS
   THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE OZARKS. THUS...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS
   WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM
   INTO CNTRL MO OR NCNTRL AR.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...OUN...
   
   39689532 39759370 39229290 38189235 37429218 36499216
   35969243 35219362 34909623 36029494 37139460 38619525

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021441Z - 021645Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD
   BECOME NECESSARY BY 18-20Z...IF NOT BEFORE.
   
   COLD CORE OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A
   NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION IS SUPPORTING ONGOING
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTH WEST OF
   SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DRY LINE.  SURFACE LOW IS
   CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH NORTHWEST OF MANHATTAN KS...AND WILL
   CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE ALONG EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT
   ...TOWARD THE ST. JOSEPH MO AREA THROUGH 18Z. 
   
   INSOLATION IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST/
   WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER...
   BUT ENVIRONMENT ON NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WRAPPING INTO
   CYCLONE IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  AS STRONGER
   FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID DAY...
   INCREASING/INTENSIFYING TRENDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
   CONTINUE.  LARGE  HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. BUT...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO
   THE ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY MO AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED IN STRONGLY
   SHEARED CONVECTIVE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SQUALL LINE MAY BEGIN TO
   EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME
   FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   40489761 40769613 40669474 40529369 40039297 39399272
   38769310 38239372 37749431 37859525 38469562 39079690
   39389767

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...SE MO...WRN KY...WRN TN...NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021542Z - 021715Z

WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

IN WAKE OF INITIAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LIFTING THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A MORE SUBTLE SUBTROPICAL STREAM
IMPULSE...LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO WESTERLY ACROSS MISSOURI
ARKANSAS. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON
EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WRAPPING INTO DEEP SURFACE
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD OF THE OZARKS TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER...SCATTERED
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
WARMING WITH INSOLATION...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BECOME DEEPLY MIXED
UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...THROUGH THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME
SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE INVERSION
LAYER. ANY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 1000
J/KG IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...

[weatherlover427]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021603Z - 021800Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY SHORTLY.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS HAVE WEAKENED INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR
INITIAL OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF WACO.
VEERING LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING APPEAR
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF CAP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH/WEST OF WACO
INTO THE TYLER/LONGVIEW AREAS. THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR...CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY MID-LEVELS WILL BE SUPPORT OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SW/S CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021634Z - 021830Z
   
   A TORNADO WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY AROUND 18Z...OR SHORTLY
   THEREAFTER.
   
   MOISTENING/HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR...EAST OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
   TRAILING FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHICH IS NOW
   WEST/NORTHWEST OF ST. JOSEPH MO.  LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   COOLING ALREADY APPEARS TO BE OVERSPREADING DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
   AXIS...AND INHIBITION IS WEAKENING.  THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   NEW BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS 18-20Z
   SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA.
   
   BROKEN SQUALL LINE SEEMS LIKELY TO QUICKLY EVOLVE...IN ENVIRONMENT
   WITH MIXED LAYER INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  70 KT MID-LEVEL
   JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   MAY NOT POSSESS STRONG CLOCKWISE CURVATURE...SHEAR BENEATH 30 TO 40
   TO WESTERLY 850 FLOW WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC
   ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN STRONGER/MORE ISOLATED CELLS WITHIN LINE.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   38049433 38719402 39699329 39509222 39159166 38219149
   37659170 36779206 36549322 36599383 37069429

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED......PARTS OF NE MS/NRN AL AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO
   PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021814Z - 021945Z
   
   TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...
   SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY FROM
   SUPPORTING STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF
   ACTIVITY INTO RETREATING WARM FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND SUSCEPTIBLE
   TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AS CLUSTER SPREADS INTO
   EXTREME NORTHERN ALABAMA/MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 20-21Z...THIS MAY OCCUR
   ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL. GIVEN LIKELY
   CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST MOTION OF 40+ KT...TENDENCY FOR STRONG
   SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS MAY
   INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   35838823 36588764 37268540 36998431 36468407 35668430
   35348481 34918552 34638617 34448722 34418761 35008835

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021915Z - 022045Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A NEW WW
   MAY BE NEEDED BY AROUND 21Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
   
   WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINTS IS NOW
   WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   ARKANSAS.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE
   INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG.  INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN
   BASE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THE
   PRESENT TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT AS
   IMMINENT AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...MODELS
   SUGGEST EROSION OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING. THIS
   MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS 21-22Z. 
   
   STRONG SHEAR NEAR 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE OZARK
   PLATEAU WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  POTENTIAL
   FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IN STRONGER
   CELLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  TORNADO POTENTIAL
   COULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS FROM CENTRAL
   INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE SURFACE FLOW MAY MAINTAIN A MORE
   SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...
   
   35569341 36029307 36339245 36519155 36309097 35839067
   35009070 34529099 33819118 33219219 33099276 33209379
   33769402 34459416 34979381

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...
   
   VALID 022016Z - 022145Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  NEW WW MAY BE
   NEEDED NORTHEAST OF WW 130 BEFORE 21Z.
   
   RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
   INSTABILITY AXIS...TRAILING FROM DEEP SOUTHWEST IOWA SURFACE
   CYCLONE...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS.  BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
   SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   DESPITE LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN
   WARM SECTOR...SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR RISK OF TORNADOES IN
   SUPERCELLS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG
   DEVELOPING LINE.  BETTER RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP IN THE
   21-00Z TIME FRAME...AS SUPERCELLS WITHIN LINE BEGIN TO CROSS OLD
   WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS INTO THE
   QUINCY/OTTUMWA AREAS.  WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THIS
   REGION...BUT SURFACE WINDS MAY BE SLOWER TO VEER TO A WESTERLY
   COMPONENT...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   41039285 41739264 42019165 42089067 41588928 40538889
   39498889 38568920 37548986 36739113 36739330 38099278
   39829255

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...
   
   VALID 022202Z - 022330Z
   
   AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS
   INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING SWWD
   FROM SE OK ACROSS THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   BOUNDARY. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
   EVENING...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE DUE TO STRONG
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW 40 TO 45 KT OF
   VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING
   MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF NE TX. IF STORM COVERAGE
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS MANY OF THE
   SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
   REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   31629426 30959625 31209721 31979706 32889473 32349404

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133...137...
   
   VALID 022351Z - 030045Z
   
   ...MULTIPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL RACE NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL IL...
   
   MULTIPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED LINE
   OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM HENRY COUNTY IL...SEWD INTO
   WAYNE COUNTY IL.  A NARROW WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR SUPPORTIVE OF
   MAINTAINING THIS TORNADIC ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD INTO ECNTRL IL/SWRN
   IND.  GIVEN STORM MOTION IS QUITE FAST...APPROACHING 50 KT...THERE
   IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
   POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OVER CNTRL IND.  EVEN SO...TORNADIC STRUCTURES
   AT SOME POINT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO DAMAGING BOW-TYPE FEATURES
   THAT WILL RACE NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW137 WITH ACTIVITY
   REACHING WRN OH BY LATE EVENING.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   37958833 39158899 40528981 41008872 40358664 38768629