Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST THU DEC 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...
BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF
ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXCEPT ST CROIX...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 4 AM AST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHRA...MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
CONDS OVER TJSJ...TJBQ...TNCM...AND TKPK. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR DURG THE MORNING HOURS.
PREVAILING ENE SURFACE WNDS OF 10-20 KTS BLO 20 KFT...WITH OCNL
SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
RESULTANT WIND WAVES...TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 71 81 / 30 40 30 40
STT 74 85 73 85 / 20 40 30 40

[Macrocane]

The temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:
-Near normal lows in Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama and the high areas of Honduras; warmer than normal lows in the rest of the region.
-Near normal highs in Nicaragua and Panama, warmer than normal highs in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.6°C (58.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.1°C (41.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.4°C (48.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F) Coolest since November 9
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F) Warmest since November 17
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (56.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.2°C (82.8°F) Warmest since November 16
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.0°F) Warmest since November 15
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.0°C (96.8°F) Warmest since October 7
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.5°C (68.9°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST THU DEC 22 2011

.UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS NEVER COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED FROM THE
ISLANDS AND NOW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE INCREASING.
SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL THAT CLOUD COVERAGE UPSTREAM TO OUR
EAST NORTHEAST IS INCREASING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
AS USEFUL IN DETERMINING RAINFALL CHANCES/POTENTIAL...BUT THE
MOISTURE FIELD BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH
OF PONCE AND QUITE DIFFUSE...HAS BEEN INCREASING AND BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM OVERALL...THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS MORE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. NO CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MARINE SITUATION WITH 8 TO
10 FOOT SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL DEFER TO NEXT
SHIFT ON DECISION TO CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY...BUT WILL
RECOMMEND THAT IT CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM AST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No big change from the present typical winter weather here for this Christmas weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST FRI DEC 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENT
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FA...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS IMAGES
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS BRUSHED THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT GENERALLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. MID TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN COMBINATION WITH DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND
PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHRA...MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS OVER
TJSJ...TJBQ...TNCM...AND TKPK. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR DURG THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING ENE
SURFACE WNDS OF 10-20 KTS BLO 20 KFT...WITH OCNL SFC WND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO COMBINE WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND RESULTANT WIND
WAVES...TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 81 72 / 40 40 70 40
STT 85 73 85 74 / 30 30 40 30

[cycloneye]

For all the Caribbean and Central American friends,Merry Christmas.

[msbee]

Merry Christmas! A special shout out to Luis, who keeps this site going,and to all the rest of our friends here,
Happy Holidays!

[Gustywind]

Merry Christmas! A special shout out to Luis, who keeps this site going,and to all the rest of our friends here,
Happy Holidays!

You're right Msbee, this guy is amazing... making a strong job here, that's wonderfull Cycloneye, Merry Christmas to you and all our friends... Firebird, Expat2carib, HUC; Macrocane, Abajan and the others, i like this family!!!!

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI DEC 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE NECESSARY TO FORECASTS. UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES NEAR 45W WHILE RIDGE DOMINATES BAHAMAS. OVER NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A FLAT RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A SLOW AND
MODERATE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO FINISH OUT THE YEAR.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONTINUE AND MOST OF THOSE OVER
CARIBBEAN. WIND TO REMAIN A BIT GUSTY UNTIL UPPER WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY. SO FAR...EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS AT BUOYS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHRA...MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAINLY OVR
TJSJ...TJMZ...TJBQ...TNCM...AND TKPK. PREVAILING EASTERLY L/LVL WNDS
OF 10-20 KTS BLO 10 KFT...WITH OCNL SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS MODELS EXPECTED BUT
WIND REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF LOCAL WATERS ON ALL SIDES OF THE ISLANDS AS THE DECREASE
WILL BE VERY SLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 71 81 / 40 70 40 40
STT 74 86 75 84 / 30 40 30 40

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America.
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize, El Salvador (except for the high areas), Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal lows in the rest of the region.
-Warmer than normal highs in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal highs in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.4°C (47.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.1°C (79.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F) Warmest since August 11
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.8°C (87.4°F) Warmest since November 3
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F) Warmest since November 14
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F) Warmest since August 17
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No big changes to the pattern that we have seen in the past couple of weeks. Merry Christmas to all our friends in the Caribbean and Central America.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST SAT DEC 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND NORTH
OF THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
IS HOWEVER FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND RELAX
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
THEREFORE SLIGHTLY DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800 MILLIBARS WHERE A 4-5 DEGREE CAP INVERSION WAS
APPARENT IN RECENT TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS.

OVER THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN DOING SO LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE...AND THUS MAY LEAD
TO FORMATION OF SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR EACH DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND COOL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST..TNCM...AND TKPK. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 20 KFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...2011 IS NOW THE SECOND WETTEST YEAR IN NEARLY 113 YEARS OF
RECORD KEEPING IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THE YEARLY PRECIPITATION
TOTAL OF 87.66" IS 32.53" ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDING TO COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER DATA...2011 WAS ALSO WET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH 128% OF THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS ALL PUERTO
RICO AND 124% OF THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...2011 RANKS AS THE TENTH WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD AT TIST AND THE 9TH WETTEST YEAR AT TISX WITH A RAINFALL
TOTAL OF 45.91" AND 47.45" RESPECTIVELY.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 72 / 50 40 30 30
STT 86 74 85 75 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST SAT DEC 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND NORTH
OF THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
IS HOWEVER FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND RELAX
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
THEREFORE SLIGHTLY DIMINISH BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED BELOW 800 MILLIBARS WHERE A 4-5 DEGREE CAP INVERSION WAS
APPARENT IN RECENT TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS.

OVER THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN DOING SO LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE...AND THUS MAY LEAD
TO FORMATION OF SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR EACH DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND COOL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST..TNCM...AND TKPK. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 20 KFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...2011 IS NOW THE SECOND WETTEST YEAR IN NEARLY 113 YEARS OF
RECORD KEEPING IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THE YEARLY PRECIPITATION
TOTAL OF 87.66" IS 32.53" ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDING TO COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER DATA...2011 WAS ALSO WET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH 128% OF THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS ALL PUERTO
RICO AND 124% OF THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...2011 RANKS AS THE TENTH WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD AT TIST AND THE 9TH WETTEST YEAR AT TISX WITH A RAINFALL
TOTAL OF 45.91" AND 47.45" RESPECTIVELY.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 72 / 50 40 30 30
STT 86 74 85 75 / 30 30 30 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! Everyone hope you have a great and enjoyable Chrsitmas Eve and Merry Christmas as well!

These are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:
-Warmer than normal lows in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, only in Guatemala they were near normal.
-Warmer than normal highs in Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and COsta Rica. Nicaragua and Panama had near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F) Warmest since October 18
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F) Warmest since November 20
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.3°C (54.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F) Warmest since October 29
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F) Warmest since July 24
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F) Warmest since October 9

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.4°C (79.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F) Warmest since November 3
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.7°C (53.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)

[cycloneye]

I am back from having a great Christmas day with family.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SUN DEC 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND NORTH
OF THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. NO OVERALL CHANGES IN THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...ARE FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. IN THE LONG
TERM...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THE WIND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND BRING WITH IT AREAS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN THE NEAR
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND NEAR ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 20 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 80 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No big change to the actual pattern on the last week of this year.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST MON DEC 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AS IT PASSES
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE USVI. WE CAN EXPECT THIS
PATTERN TO CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS
PATTERN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY AROUND THURSDAY WITH SOME OF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THIS WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...XPCT VFR CONDS XCPT MVFR IN BRIEF SHRA...MOSTLY EARLY
THIS MORNING ON NORTHERN PR COAST. ISOLD SHRA OTHW THRU TUE ACROSS
REGION...SCT AT TIMES FOR EAST END OF PR. WIND THRU TUE BLO 15 KFT
TO CONT ENE OR E 15-20 KT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF UNDER 6
FEET AND WINDS OF 14 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BUT THERE ARE PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS DUE TO THE
FORECAST OF WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ANOTHER
SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EXITS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 72 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST MON DEC 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND NORTH
OF THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. COLD FRONT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST 26/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF ONLY
1.06 INCHES....WITH VERY DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS. MEANWHILE
THETA-E VALUES REMAINS BETWEEN 315K-320K. LIKE YESTERDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH LITTLE
SHOWER AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. NO OVERALL CHANGES IN
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOMINATING THE LOCAL
REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW...ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
IN THE LONG TERM...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK...AS THE WIND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND BRING WITH
IT AREAS OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN
THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR IN BRIEF
SHRA NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND THRU 27/12Z EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BELOW
15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 71 82 / 30 30 20 20
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing moisture for the end of the week in the NE Caribbean is expected so prepare for that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE DEC 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED PATTERN OF PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY HELP
DEVELOP MORE PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK. WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED AS FAR AS THE LOCAL WEATHER IS
CONCERNED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION BUT THE OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE PATTERN OF
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED VERY SIMILAR. ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.8
TO 1.1 INCHES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THE OW VALUES MAY INCREASE AS MUCH AS 1.8 FOR FRIDAY
MORNING THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 1.1 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT ACCORDING
TO THE GFS. SO AS FAR AS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...AS OF
NOT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE FAVORING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN OVERALL
INSTABILITY FOR THAT SAME PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AVAILABLE ENERGY AND OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS K-INDEX
AND TOTAL TOTALS.

THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS EXPECTED TOP MOVE EAST AS A
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
KEEPING THE LOCAL WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST UNTIL THURSDAY.
FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WILL DRAG MOISTURE IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN...CAUSING THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL AS
AN INCREASE IN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IN THE 850 MB
LAYER AND IT MAY EVEN SHIFT THE WINDS A LITTLE BY GIVING IT A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 28/12Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY ALG N COAST OF PR AND NRN VI. OCNL BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED
TNCM AND TKPK IN LIGHT SHRAS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
AROUND 10 TO 25 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20 KFT.
OCNL MTN OBSCURATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS SOME OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED WINDS EXCEEDING 17 KNOTS AND SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET. EVEN THOUGH THE LOCAL BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING
SEAS OF UNDER 6 FEET...A SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A MODERATE SWELL THAT WILL INVADE THE LOCAL
WATERS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 82 72 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND A
GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED...BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE OUR NEXT SWELL EVENT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN INVADING PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE WINDS AND NORTH SWELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 71 82 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 86 74 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather pattern for the last days of the year with scattered showers with intervals of sun will prevail.

Congratulations to our friend in El Salvador Macrocane for his birthday today and have many,many more.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST WED DEC 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE USVI AS THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH A
GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA...THESE PATCHES
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...GIVING US THESE SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS TODAY AND
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. FOR TOMORROW EVENING INTO FRIDAY...AN
EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT RISE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE LONG
RANGE MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...MOSTLY ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ. EXPECT MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SWELLS THAT WILL INVADE OUR AREA
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OF UP TO 22 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 7 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 72 / 30 20 40 50
STT 86 74 85 75 / 20 30 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED DEC 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE HAS PASSED BY AND EXTENDS
WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI. THIS WILL
CAUSE SHORTWAVES TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
...UNTIL THE RIDGE RETROGRADES TO CUBA BY THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS
A RELATIVELY DEEP SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THU NIGHT/FRI WITH BETTER
MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE MODEL SHOWS PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR
1.9 INCHES BU FRIDAY...WITH THETA-E VALUES REACHING 333K.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL INDUCE A
STRONG EAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.

IN THE LONG TERM...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...PASSING
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT MAINLY
IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. IS NOT UNTIL A WEEK FROM
NOW...MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONT BUT ISOLD SHRA MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CIG...
MAINLY TONIGHT FOR VI TAF SITES. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THU TO BE ESE
15-25 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 81 / 20 40 50 50
STT 74 85 75 85 / 30 40 50 50