Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Happy Belated Birthday Macrocane
Hope it was a good one!

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Between and will be the pattern for the final days of the year and the first days of 2012.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST THU DEC 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BUILDS TO THE
WEST TO CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY VERY DRY UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND MAINTAINS A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN WEAK TROUGHINESS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PATCHES OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED ONSHORE COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW...AND MIMIC PRODUCT CONFIRMS...AN AREA OF MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF THE RAINFALL ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR FLOODING BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOIL MOISTURE AT HIGH
LEVELS IN THOSE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE BEYOND 7
DAYS...BUT MODELS SHOW NO FRONTS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 10 DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OUT OF THE HIGH IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 10 KFT DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 8.5 TO 10 FEET WERE INDICATED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
BUOY 41043 TO OUR NORTH WITH PERIODS OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS. MOST OF
THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE DUE TO SWELL. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AROUND 8 AM AST REACHING AT LEAST 7 FEET. THIS
WOULD CAUSE BREAKERS OF 10 TO 16 FEET GIVEN PERIODS UP TO 16
SECONDS. THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. MODELS
UNDER-FORECAST THIS SWELL EVENT...BUT IT PEAKED LATER THAN
FORECAST AS WELL. EXPECT THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...HENCE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST WATERS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BUT THE HIGH NORTH SWELL MAY LAST ONLY FOR A SHORT WHILE
SO HAVE LIMITED HIGH SURF ADVISORY TILL THIS EVENING PENDING
OBSERVATIONS AT THE OUTER BUOY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT BEING FROM THE EAST...SEAS GENERATED WILL
NOT IMPACT THE ISLANDS` COASTS AS MUCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 72 / 50 60 60 60
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 50 50 40

[Macrocane]

Thank you very much everyone!!!
I had a great day with family and friends.

By the way, I'm going to post observations from Central America later today

[Macrocane]

Finally after several days of warmer than normal temperatures they returned to near normal values in the last couple of days. (El Salvador stations have not been working so I had to use weather underground data for San Salvador).

These are the temperatures registered on December 27.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.0°C (55.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.9°C (33.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17°C (63°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.1°C (57.4°F) Coldest since February 23
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F) Coolest since October 24
Boquete, Panama 15.4°C (59.7°F) Warmest since July 24

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30°C (86°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.5°C (79.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.7°C (67.5°F)

[Macrocane]

And these are the temepratures registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17°C (63°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30°C (86°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST THU DEC 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...BUT WERE FAST MOVING...PRODUCING LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS NOT LOOKING TOO
IMPRESSIVE IN LATEST SATELITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST PROBABLY IS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER THAN RAINFALL ITSELF. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS TJPS AND
TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS OF EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 60 60 60 60
STT 74 85 75 86 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Keep the umbrella with you as scattered showers will move thru the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST FRI DEC 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE HIGH MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY LESSER PATCHES OF MOISTURE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SHEAR LINE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT
WILL BE REPULSED BY THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS LEFT THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE GREAT MAJORITY OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
FROM CANOVANAS TO GUAYAMA COVERED WITH MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AMOUNTS IN A
FEW AREAS MAY HAVE EXCEEDED THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MIMIC TPW
PRODUCT SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER CROSSING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE ALREADY THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SHOW MORE
PULSES ARE DUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EACH WHICH SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA`S ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED AS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
PUERTO RICO...PERHAPS SAINT CROIX...THEN FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE TRIES TO APPROACH THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONTO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN A CONTINUATION OF THE INTERMITTENT PATTERN OF LIGHT
RAIN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST WEEK. TRADE WINDS STILL APPEAR TOO
STRONG TO LET COLD FRONTS PASS BEFORE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY IN THE MORNING AND FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 30/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE PLATEAUED AT THE OUTER BUOY AND THIS HAS KEPT
SEAS AT THE INNER BUOY CLOSE TO 7 FEET...WITH PERIODS HOVERING
BETWEEN 13 TO 15 SECONDS. MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY UNDER-FORECAST
THE PERIOD BUT SHOW A GRADUAL SUBSIDENCE OF SWELL HEIGHT AND
PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TO COINCIDE WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN AMZ712. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT MODELS
SEEMED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 KNOTS TOO HIGH AND HAVE ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 81 72 / 60 60 60 60
STT 85 74 85 74 / 50 40 40 50

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was a normal day in terms of temperatures for most of Central America, the lows were pretty cool as it is expected for December.
-The whole region had near normal lows only Costa Rica and Panama experienced warmer than normal lows.
-Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama had near normal highs. Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica had warmer than normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.8°C (55.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.9°C (33.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.1°C (44.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 16.4°C (61.5°F) Coldest since January 7
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.4°C (59.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30°C (86°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19°C (66°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34°C (93°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.5°C (79.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F) Warmest since November 18
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER LOCALLY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...AND
FEW NEAR MAYAGUEZ AND RINCON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES HAS INCREASED DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...CONDITIONS AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY STABLE. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING
WITH IT SOME PASSING SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. `

IN THE LONG TERM RANGE...MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MID NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE TO THE
LOCAL AREA...IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...AND LASTING PROBABLY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH IMPACT
WILL HAVE THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND MOST OF TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS BECOMG MORE NMRS
AFT 00UTC ALONG EAST HALF OF PR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND VARYING FROM 20-25 KTS FROM FL010 TO FL090.
VCNTY TAPA AND TNCM MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AS SCT-NMRS SHOWERS
APPROACH FROM THE EAST THROUGH 22Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 81 / 60 60 60 40
STT 75 85 74 85 / 40 40 50 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Happy New Year to all our friends in the Caribbean and Central America.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SUB-EQUATORIAL JET ARCHING THROUGH
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NOW THROUGH MID WEEK. A PASSING LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH WILL FLATTEN BUT NOT DISLODGE THE RIDGE FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A PASSING LONG WAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT...BUT A SECOND TROUGH WILL DIG CLOSER ON
FRIDAY. MID LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS TO FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SHEAR LINE MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS COVERED MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN WEST OF
COROZAL AND PONCE DUE TO TERRAIN BLOCKING THE FLOW...BUT MUCH OF
THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTS SAW MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. RADAR SHOWED AS
MUCH AS TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES. GAGES AMOUNTS WERE LIGHTER...
WITH THE MOST BEING REPORTED...AS OF 4 AM AST...BEING 1.51 INCHES
AT RIO HUMACAO AT LAS PIEDRAS. MIMIC IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST
MOISTURE MOVING WEST JUST SOUTH PUERTO RICO. SAINT CROIX HAD A
TOTAL OF 0.23 INCHES SINCE 6 PM AST FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER BAND YET TO PASS...BUT IT IS WEAKEST JUST EAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND SAINT THOMAS...SO WILL NOT YIELD AS MUCH AS THE
PREVIOUS BANDS. AT PRESENT THE BREAK BETWEEN THE BACK EDGE OF THAT
BAND AND THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE IS ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS WIDE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR THE SAN JUAN AREA ABOUT MID
MORNING AND YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MANY
AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE RAIN FOREST. NEW YEARS FESTIVITIES MAY BE
DAMPENED TONIGHT BUT LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THAN WAS HAD
THIS MORNING. THE MODEL THAT HAS CONFORMED MOST CLOSELY TO THE
PATTERN SEEN...THE GFS...INDICATES THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WON`T CROSS
THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL AFTER 1 AM AST. THAT SAID
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT POPS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL EXCEED 50-50.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE GFS RUN AT 31/00Z WAS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED IN
THAT DIRECTION THOUGH THE ADJUSTMENT WAS SMALL. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOIST THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING 6 DAYS.

CURRENTLY BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGEST THAT A SHEARLINE WILL
PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA THAN DOES THE GFS
AND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND THROUGH THE ISLAND. THE GFS IS
SHOWING THE RAIN BAND HELD BACK BY THE TRADE WINDS AND WILL USE
THIS SOLUTION EXCLUSIVELY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO PAST
PERFORMANCE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL SETS FROM THE NORTH ARE DIMINISHING...BUT WINDS
ARE KEEPING SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN MANY AREAS. MOST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT WILL HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN
ALL BUT A SMALL AREA IN THE WIND SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO. THE WAVE
WATCH MODEL IS SHOWING SWELL UP TO 10 FEET FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST ENTERING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
ANOTHER HIGH SURF EVENT IF SAID SWELL MATERIALIZE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 81 72 / 60 60 30 60
STT 85 74 85 74 / 40 40 30 40

[msbee]

Happy New Year!

[Macrocane]

Thank you very much cycloneye and msbee!!! Happy New Year to you too!!



And as you said let's hope for better weather on 2012. Here in El Salvador we've had 3 straight years of weather disasters hopefully this year won't be the same.

These are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:
-Cooler than normal lows in Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador and warmer than normal in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.
-Near normal highs in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Warmer than normal in Costa Rica and Panama.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.4°C (36.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17°C (63°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8°C (46°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17°C (63°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F) Warmest since November 10
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F) Warmest since July 23

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31°C (88°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20°C (68°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36°C (97°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.1°C (93.4°F) Warmest since July 23
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F)

By the way, a strong cold front will affect us next week and the high associated to it will produce strong winds starting tomorrow, I will keep you updated.

[Jimsot]

HAPPY NEW YEAR everyone!

As I promised here are the rainfall totals for Anguilla from my location on the South East coast at Sandy Hill Bay. Although the year started slow rain wise it didn't stay that way! November was spectacular with two seperate storms dropping 6 inches and 13 inches respectively. Micro climate is interesting as the West End of the island did not get this kind of rain. Annual rainfall for Anguilla is usually stated as 35 inches. We almost doubled that this year at 68.9 inches!

Month Rainfall in inches

January 0.81
February 0.61
March 5.71
April 3.42
May 2.54
June 4.91
July 7.25
August 6.0
September 7.62
October 1.75
November 24.12
December 4.16

[cycloneye]

This will be the weather conditions that will be present when the new year arrives.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST SAT DEC 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS TO FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SHEAR LINE MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRYER AIR MASS MOVED OVER THE REGION LIMITING THE
SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE DOPPLER
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND
IS GENERATING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS ARE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AT AROUND SUNSET. AT THIS MOMENT MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS ARE WEAK AND ISOLATED...THEREFORE NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE WILL HELP INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
NEXT YEAR. THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED WILL THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME VCSH OVER
TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 18 TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS MOS OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS
WINDS RELAX...SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE. A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT
THE GFS AND THE SWAN MODEL A SUGESTING SWELL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 10
FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 71 81 / 50 40 50 50
STT 74 85 74 84 / 30 30 40 40

[Macrocane]

Thanks for the info Jimsot! It's always interesting for me to read about the climate of other parts of the world.

[Macrocane]

I have updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations for the last event that affected us: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2209798#p2209798

Have a nice New Year's Eve

[cycloneye]

Good morning on this first day of 2012!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MID
NEXT WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE FAST
MOVING...THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW...WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN PRODUCER DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC..IS IN TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
LOCALLY...AND NO CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AT LEAST
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A
LITTLE BIT BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INDUCE A DECREASE IN WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA ATTM OVR USVI AND NORTH PR COAST TO CONT TIL
CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF 800 MB WAVE PASSES THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT TNCM/TKPK AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THE SHRA WILL DECREASE BY 12Z AT TIST/TISX AND 15Z FOR TJSJ
TODAY. WILL LEAN ON THAT TIMING FOR ANY UPDATES AND FOR 12Z TAF
PACKAGE. XPCT WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT AND DECR LATE MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 71 / 40 50 50 30
STT 85 74 84 73 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

2011 ended as the second most year of rainfall ever in Puerto Rico behind 2010 as 88.15 inches fell vs 89.50 inches that fell last year.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.32          2.50 1936   0.15   0.17      T
  MONTH TO DATE    8.19                      5.02   3.17     7.47
  SINCE DEC 1      8.19                      5.02   3.17     7.47
  SINCE JAN 1     88.15                     56.35  31.80    89.50



[Gustywind]

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2012 my friends . Wishing the best things for you and your familly (joy, health and many more). Cycloneye thanks for your daily job here, that's wonderfull we enjoy it and we love you too Hey guys, we should continue have our carib links strong to keep this family alive, and let it always agrabable

Regards

Gustywind 2012

[cycloneye]

Thank you Gusty and the rest for the New Year messages.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT AT THIS
TIME...IT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PULSE
OF MOISTURE WILL APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND MAY
INCREASE THE SHRA COVERAGE AFT 02/06Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND SOME VCSH...ESPECIALLY OVER TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK
AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FM THE EAST AT
15-25 KT BTWN SFC AND FL150.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...MAINTAINING ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. A
NEW ROUND OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 71 81 / 50 50 30 20
STT 73 84 74 84 / 40 40 30 20