Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Lakeland got down to 36 last week so that GFS depiction is still considerably milder than our last cool snap. seems reasonable.

[northjaxpro]

Also, one other potential major factor to consider is the forecasted winter storm that will impact the Deep South this weekend. We could be looking at a potential fresh snowpack across the region just north of the peninsula which could help to keep surface temperatures from moderating much late this weekend into early next week.

Temps may be colder just a bit by Monday morning at least across North Florida than what is being shown currently, depending on how much potential snowfall depth occurs this weekend. GFS model fron early today was showing up to potentially 7 inches in Atlanta metro area and as much as a foot in the Raleigh-Durham, NC region.

It would be impressive to say the least if we see snowfall depths like that up across those areas.

[psyclone]

My NWS forecast shows a high of just 58 on Sunday with windy conditions...looks rather unpleasant. OTOH, the newly issued 8-14 day outlook shows a broad swath of above normal temps across all of the southern and eastern US so it looks like we're going to have a period of cool (but not freezing) weather followed by an eventual return to above normal temps over the next couple of weeks.. Should that happen that would take us effectively to half time in the freeze season with no freeze threats thus far in the ag regions of central and southern florida.

[gatorcane]

Seems the models are trending colder for this upcoming cold front for Florida...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z still extnding freezing line further south into Citrus County, FL. CMC doesn't hold back and takes it into Hillsborough. Hopefully, the GFS continues to trend to the CMC solution.

[psyclone]

I'm guessing the strawberry, tomato and tropical fish farmers in Hillsborough don't share your enthusiasm. I think they'll be good. Current NWS forecast bring lows to the upper 30's to near 40 in northeast Hillsborough which would imply meaningfully warmer temps in the metro areas to the west. This cool, but not freezing weather would be beneficial to the strawberry crop as well as citrus. We're having another non winter so far and I'd be reluctant to bet against persistence at this point absent compelling evidence to the contrary...which isn't in sight. Nevertheless I'm looking forward to the cool snap. Brisk football weather for the championship game is definitely on tap.

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFS continuing the trend on Monday morning temperatures going colder, which is not surprising at all because the GFS is taking into account the anticipated snowpack this upcoming weekend. If the snowpack is realized, the airmass will not modify much, it at all through at least Tuesday of next week.

Current 12Z run shows mid-upper 20s across North Florida for Monday morning. Monday high temps only in the mid -upper 40s for Jax.

[psyclone]

this looks like a 2 day cool snap quickly followed by a return to above normal temps. The CPC outlooks show torch city across the south.

[northjaxpro]

this looks like a 2 day cool snap

quickly followed by a return to above normal temps. The CPC outlooks show torch city across the south.

This cold snap should last through Tuesday of next week. Temps should be in moderation in earnest by Wednesday of next week.

I will enjoy this brief cold snap while we have it, especially given how warm it has been so far this Fall/Winter season to this point.

[gatorcane]

The most detailed discussion I have seen in a while from NWS Tampa on this upcoming cold front / weekend weather-maker. Note wind chills into the 30s all the way down to Punta Gorda!

LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Wednesday)...
A big change in pattern expected toward the beginning of the long
term period. We end the work week on Friday with a large scale
pattern across the conus feature broad synoptic troughing...with a
series of shortwave impulses migrating across the country. The
impulse that will become most influential in our weather will be
dropping out of the central Rockies into the southern/central
plains during Friday....and then advancing into the lower MS
valley Friday night. Although the timing and general synoptic
pattern is in good agreement among the ensemble members...some of
the finer details related to the initial shortwave...especially
amplitude are still in question. We will try to sort everything
else with the information we currently have.

First things first. The majority of the daylight hours of Friday
look to be generally dry and quiet. Depending on the degree of
moistening in the lower levels...a few showers are possible very
late in the day...however...the consensus is that measurable QPF
holds off until at least Friday evening. During the day Friday...a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will extend from the north-
central Gulf of Mexico to north Florida/ or south GA. With our
forecast area to the south of this boundary we can expect
seasonably warm conditions...with the best potential for sunshine
during the earlier portion of the day. Temperatures should
generally reach the lower 70s north to the mid/upper 70s
central/southern zones. The boundary may initially try to sink
south a bit during the morning...however the approach of the upper
energy later in the day/evening is forecast to trigger a surface
reflection/wave along the boundary over the Gulf...which should
stop or even treat this boundary back north a bit Friday night.

Increasing deep layer Qvector convergence/synoptic support...along
with favorable RRQ jet dynamics swinging across the region Friday
night into Saturday morning should support sct-nmrs
showers/storms...or even areas of straight steady rainfall to move
ashore from the Gulf of Mexico. Just how efficient/potentially
heavy this rain event will be is still in question. There is
still a lot of uncertainly regarding this aspect of the forecast.
So...while the potential for rain is very high...the certainly in
heavy precip is still rather low. Also...we will have thunder in
the forecast...as most guidance does have showalter indices at
zero or slightly negative late Friday night/Saturday
morning...however...at the moment the ingredients are not coming
together for much of a severe threat. We will however obviously be
watching future guidance runs in case things trend otherwise.

Upper trough pivots across the region late Saturday/Saturday
night...propelling a significant cold front through the peninsula.
Will end any lingering precip early Saturday night to the south of
Tampa Bay...followed quickly by strong cold/dry air advection by
Sunday morning. For the mariners...this cold front will be moving
through the eastern Gulf during Saturday...with a quick wind shift
to the north and development of hazardous winds and seas. These
hazardous conditions for small craft will linger through the
duration of the weekend...so not a great period for boating.

The colder temps will be very noticeable Saturday night...with
early morning low temperatures down into the 30s anywhere along
and north of the I-4 corridor...and 40s elsewhere. Only locations
that will potentially see near freezing conditions should be
limited to locations north of Crystal River. However...it will
also be quite breezy Saturday night...so expect even lower still
wind chills (20s north of I-4...and 30s down as far as possible
Punta Gorda region).

A chilly Sunday in the forecast (especially compared to the
weather we have seen recently). Despite sunshine...high
temperatures may be held in the 50s for the I-4 corridor
northward...and only lower 60s down toward Fort Myers. Sunday
night will be another chilly one...with lows in the 30s for I-4
and northward and lower to middle 40s further south. The surface
high looks to stay well to our north with this event...keeping our
winds steady. So...once again...wind chills Sunday night/Monday
morning will feel even colder.

The early portion of next week looks dry...with a slower
moderating trend in temperatures than we have seen with the past
few cold front events. Will likely take until the middle of the
week before we once again see widespread high temperatures in the
70s.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:uarrow: I'm guessing the strawberry, tomato and tropical fish farmers in Hillsborough don't share your enthusiasm. I think they'll be good. Current NWS forecast bring lows to the upper 30's to near 40 in northeast Hillsborough which would imply meaningfully warmer temps in the metro areas to the west. This cool, but not freezing weather would be beneficial to the strawberry crop as well as citrus. We're having another non winter so far and I'd be reluctant to bet against persistence at this point absent compelling evidence to the contrary...which isn't in sight. Nevertheless I'm looking forward to the cool snap. Brisk football weather for the championship game is definitely on tap.

From those I've talked to, for the most part they're alright with one night of a freeze, especially with temperatures returning to blowtorch levels again later in the week. It's multiple days of freezing weather that does the real damage. In Jan 2010, which was probably the last year I can remember where FL saw temps in the 20-30s as far south as CFL for several days, the strawberry farmers around my parts actually used so much water to protect strawberries from the freeze that it created massive sinkholes all over the place. The mid 1980s were also absolutely brutal for citrus crop, as another example.

[psyclone]

Inland Hillsborough county cools very efficiently in radiational cooling nights but that is not on tap as winds are expected to be up the whole time...so the wind chills will feel lousy but the actual temps should remain above freezing there. I don't expect the sprinklers to be needed over the strawberry fields..in fact cool weather benefits the crop so this should be a net win.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Nice psyclone. I love strawberries. Where I live in Hollywood. Probably see mid 50's. Too close to the coast to get colder but will see.

[northjaxpro]

The latest 6Z GFS numbers show very cold for Sunday across North Florida as the arctic front moves through the area during Saturday. Pretty decent rain amounts should occur across North Florida with some projected totals of up to 3 inches of rainfall as the Gulf Low moves through the region late tonight into Saturday morning. Also, the arctic frontal boundary passes through in the aftermath of the Low moving off the NE Florida coast by mid morning Saturday. North wind will increase significantly and temps will drop through the day into the 40s across the northern peninsula.

Low temps Sunday morning forecasted mid 20s over the Suwanee River Valley region and upper 20s -lower 30s around interior Northeast FL. and highs on Sunday only in the mid-to-upper 40s across North Florida with strong cold advection. Also, strong north winds will really add biting wind chill indices well into the 20s all during the day on Sunday across the northern peninsula. Also, the snowpack across the areas just north of the peninsula in North Georgia and through the Carolinas will keep the air mass from moderating the next couple of days. The areas across the interior Nature Coast area also will see temps near the freeze mark on Sunday morning, as well as Ocala and Leesburg areas. Orlando metro proper looks to be in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees along the I-4 corridor for Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will only be the low 50s across Central Florida on Sunday. Brisk winds on Sunday will really make it feel very cold on Sunday.

Also, I will watch the cold air stratocumulus cloud deck from the Atlantic very closely beginning late Sunday afternoon as the wind veers from north to N/NE as a very strong 1045 mb Arctic High builds in from the Central U.S. east toward the Mid -Atlantic region .

This potentially may spare interior areas of Jax from having a significant freeze with the potential onshore flow on Monday morning. Also, as a curiosity, I would not be shocked in the least that a stratocumulus deck off moving in from the Atlantic during the day on Sunday may bring snow flurries right along areas just inland from the Northeast FL coast (within 10-15 miles). The current potential set-up is similar to just nearly one year ago to the day when flurries occured here in Jax on 1/8/15.

[psyclone]

This event is going to suck. One bit of good news is the rain potential which looks decent. (only .5" here during the past 3 months). At least we have no freeze in the ag regions and a fairly quick rebound to more normal temps but the persistent winds will make things very unpleasant. I plan to hibernate, stoke up the fireplace and make a big pot of chicken and dumplings.

[psyclone]

some pretty good thunderstorms are offshore approaching the coast...if they maintain they look to reach the Dixie/Levy/Citrus/Hernando county regions this evening. What a dynamic system this is. Earlier today Port Arthur Texas had a thunderstorm with a temp of 37. Meanwhile a blizzard warning is now valid for Virginia beach. This is going to be a memorable event for some areas.

[northjaxpro]

Big shield of rain and even some embedded thunderstorm cells moving out of the GOM and moving across North and North-Central peninsula. The strong shortwave. Moving into the Tennessee Valley currently is triggering the development of the rain as the Gulf Low also is beginning to crank up as well. Rainfall amounts expected to be generally between .50 and 1 inch, but there could be areas that see up 1 to 2 inches later tonight into tomorrow morning as the Low Pressue area moves through North Florida.

As discussed earlier, cold, blustery conditions on tap for this weekend. Latest GFS now showing possible light freeze for interior NE Florida away from the coast for Monday morning. It will be a close call about that as wind is forecast to veer onshore from the Atlantic by that time and we also may have a stratocumulus deck moving in over the Jax area which may spare my locale a freeze on Monday morning.

No doubt we will see a significant freeze at my locale on Sunday morning as upper 20s expected here. Temperatures in the mid 20s expected in the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley. Sunday morning. Wind chill indices on Sunday morning will be in the upper teens across my locale and all of North Florida on Sunday morning.

[psyclone]

lightning data is showing a broken squall line becoming more defined (mostly out of radar range) from southwest of port st joe southwestward to southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi accelerating eastward...the southern extent of which is probably feeding off some pretty warm water. sometimes these weaken as they head over the colder shelf waters and sometimes upper air dynamics are sufficient for maintenance as they approach the coast. should these hold together they would move into the "marginal" risk area outlined by the SPC later tonight. It's nice to finally have a reason to pull up the local radar and we really need any rain.

[NDG]

Cloud to ground lightning during a strong thunderstorm woke me up tonight, it had been a long time, my grass is jumping with joy tonight.

Regarding low temps Sunday morning h925 winds will be switching in off of the Atlantic bringing in possible cloud cover from Daytona down to Orlando to SE FL sparing this side of the FL coast from dropping down too low, temps staying in the 50s for highs on Sunday for Central FL, Monday morning not as cold with temps getting back up to the 60s as a big warm up is coming for the entire eastern US for next week. We once again lucked out in my area from freezing temps.
Houston TX down to the low to mid 20s tomorrow morning, wow!

[northjaxpro]

Heavy rain and thunder pounding here at my locale currently. This awakened me out of my sleep lol.. Getting some very welcomed rainfall. Barametric pressure is 1009.6 mb. South wind 16 gusting to 26 mph. Temp 65.3 degrees. The Low Pressure area is sitting right over Jax area at 8Z. I already have measured nearly 1.5 inches and sdtill have a bit more rain for the next 2 to 4 hours. The Low will continue to intensify as it moves off the. SE coast during the remainder of this morning. Arctic front should move in my locale within the next couple of hours. I will know it for sure when that blustery north wind comes in and the temps fall later this morning.