Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Hopefully more fear but nothing more.

SAINT-FRANCOIS. Controversy around a crash

B.C. / S.S. franceantilles.fr30.01.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 156396.php

This morning, around 11 p.m., a small single-engine missed its landing, the départemental airfield of Saint-François. He finished on the roof at the end of runway, due to a hole which was on its trajectory. The two occupants are free. It would be a pilot instructor and his student. The follow-up, tomorrow, in your daily France West Indies.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT CLOUD CLUSTERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE RAINFALL TOTALS WERE AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT CLOUD CLUSTERS AS WELL AS PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS EACH MORNING. DUE TO
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LEAVE MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PWAT VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...AND TJBQ IN PASSING SHRA.
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT
10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 72 / 70 10 20 30
STT 80 73 80 73 / 70 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT BANDS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS GUIDANCE...A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A FAIRLY STABLE
AND A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...AS OCCURRED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE THE
GENERATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY
IN THE MORNINGS. DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY LEAVING ONLY MINIMAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 1.00-1.50
INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL. THIS PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. FEW OF THEM
AFFECTED ST CROIX FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF
VCSH...SHRA AND MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT TJPS TO EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON NORTHERN COASTS. PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TIL 01/13Z IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OTHERWISE
VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
01/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 73 80 73 80 / 30 30 10 30

[Macrocane]

Finally seasonable temperatures have been registered in the last couple of days, these are the temperatures registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Warmer than normal in Honduras and the caribbean coast of Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.7°C (42.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.7°C (51.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.5°C (76.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica -0.1°C (31.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.3°C (55.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in all the countries.

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.6°C (60.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.7°C (96.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F) Coolest since December 27 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.9°C (46.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.9°C (66.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST WED FEB 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT CLOUD CLUSTERS AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAINFALL TOTALS WERE MINIMAL.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT CLOUD CLUSTERS AS WELL AS PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THESE FAST
MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAVE MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN. ENE WINDS TODAY AT 15G25KT
FINALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10KT. STILL BREEZY OVR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DURING THE DAYTIME WITH ENE WINDS 15G20KT ALTHOUGH
NOT AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 82 73 / 40 20 20 40
STT 78 75 78 75 / 40 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

The actual pattern of rapid passing showers will continue at least until next Saturday.


AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED FEB 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...BUT REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGHS PASS WEST TO EAST AT MID LATITUDES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE COOL AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED GOOD SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CULEBRINAS RIVER TO GUAYAMA WITH THE BEST
AMOUNTS WITHIN A 25 MILE RADIUS OF SAN JUAN. HEAVY SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM CABO ROJO TO PENUELAS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIE OUT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWEST. THE NAM SUGGESTED A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 02/00Z AND 02/04Z SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
NORTHEAST COASTAL PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AMOUNTS AND RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO DIMINISH AFTER
SATURDAY. FRONTAL BANDS CONTINUE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE MOIST BELOW 7 THOUSAND FEET
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AREAS...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT...TO INSIGNIFICANT ACROSS SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS EAST OF PENUELAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF
VCSH...SHRA AND MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS. EAST NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY ON
NORTHERN COASTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 02/12Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02/20Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ROUGH AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON ON FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN EXPOSED
WATERS NOT UNDER ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 82 / 70 70 70 70
STT 74 83 74 84 / 60 60 50 50

[Macrocane]

Yesterday the lows returned to above normal levels in some countries but the highs were cooler than normal in most of the region. These are the observations for January 31 2012.

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala and Costa Rica. Warmer than normal in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.8°C (51.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.3°C (55.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.6°C (49.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.8°C (87.4°F) Coolest since December 19
Boquete, Panama 18.6°C (65.5°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1021 PM AST WED FEB 1 2012

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM TERM FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MAINLY BELOW 800 MILLIBARS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE AND DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS RESULTING IN CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN OFFICE.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/12Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TO OCCUR ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...AND TJSJ IN
FAST MOVING PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

[Macrocane]

A moderate quake (5 magnitude and V intensity in San Salvador) occurred in El Salvador tonight, no damages have been reported thankfully. More info here:

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2212730#p2212730

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
CLOUD CLUSTERS AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT CLOUD CLUSTERS AS WELL AS PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THESE
FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAVE MINIMAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH IS STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH PRES
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LOOSEN SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A DIMINISHING TREND IN WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS FROM THE ENE 15G20KT WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE DAY
AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT NIGHT WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
THIS SHOULD BE THE NORM FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. A SHEARLINE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP AND
THUS CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 75 82 75 / 20 10 30 40
STT 78 75 78 75 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT CLOUD
CLUSTERS AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE
INTERVALS 0F CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND SOMETIMES
NUMEROUS...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. INCREASED THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE THE VERY BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT...AS IT EXPIRES FOR MOST OF THE WATERS AT 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN ONLY FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE...THIS MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES...MARINERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 71 81 / 50 50 40 40
STT 75 78 75 78 / 20 20 40 40

[Macrocane]

The temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in Guatemala and Costa Rica. Warmer than normal in Belize El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.7°C (56.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.6°C (47.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.8°C (53.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in Belize and Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.0°C (62.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.0°C (96.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.2°C (66.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. I was without internet this morning and that is why this morning's discussion was not posted. Here it is.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM AST FRI FEB 3 2012/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST
TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...WEAKER PRES GRADIENT TODAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ON EAST NORTHEAST
TRADES. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE WWD OR RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR/USVI SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A SFC TROF. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH PW INCREASING
TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES SUN AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED SUN NIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY AS OPPOSED TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS EL YUNQUE AND ACROSS WRN/NW PR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 03/14Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS STILL AROUND 6.5 FT AT BUOY 41043 WHICH IMPLIES
LEAVING THE SCA FOR AMZ710. WINDS SUBSIDE OVR THE WEEKEND AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA AT SOME TIME. WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH SCEC LIKELY.

FIRE WEATHER...SVRL WILDFIRES WERE REPORTED YDAY ACROSS
COAMO...SANTA ISABEL...SALINAS AND GUAYAMA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TODAY AND THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT-SUN.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD WILDFIRES YESTERDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY. ANY FIRES WILL BE FUEL DRIVEN WHICH REMAIN VERY
DRY ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 73 81 73 / 40 30 40 50
STT 83 74 83 74 / 40 20 30 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST
JUST AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHEARLINE WILL RETROGRESS
AND HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 03/12Z SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE MOISTURE STILL
REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND ACCORDING TO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THIS PATTERN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN INCREASE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A SHEARLINE RETROGRESSES AND MOVED BACK OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
STARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FORECAST BY THE MODELS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM 1.05 ON SATURDAY MORNING TO 1.52 ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASE IN OVERALL INSTABILITY...SO
THIS INFORMATION IN COMBINATION TO THE SREF SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT
THERE IS IN FACT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED...BUT AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY FOR SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO MORE OF AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SHALLOW BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CAUSE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURG THE NEXT 24 HRS. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BTW
10 TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCNL SCT-BKN LYR MAINLY BTW 020-080 KFT. THE
UPPER LEVELS WESTERLIES WILL BRING INCR SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS FLYING AREA DURG THE NEXT 24 HRS. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LWR IN
PASSING CLDS AND SHRA BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS...GIVEN THE
FACT THAT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THE FORECAST SHOWS SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WITH
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR THE SMALL CRAFTS FOR SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 73 82 / 30 40 50 50
STT 74 83 74 83 / 20 30 70 70

[Gustywind]

Good afternoon. I was without internet this morning and that is why this morning's discussion was not posted. Here it is.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM AST FRI FEB 3 2012/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST
TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...WEAKER PRES GRADIENT TODAY SHOULD ALLOW BETTER SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ON EAST NORTHEAST
TRADES. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE WWD OR RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR/USVI SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A SFC TROF. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH PW INCREASING
TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES SUN AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED SUN NIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY AS OPPOSED TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS EL YUNQUE AND ACROSS WRN/NW PR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 03/14Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS STILL AROUND 6.5 FT AT BUOY 41043 WHICH IMPLIES
LEAVING THE SCA FOR AMZ710. WINDS SUBSIDE OVR THE WEEKEND AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA AT SOME TIME. WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH SCEC LIKELY.

FIRE WEATHER...SVRL WILDFIRES WERE REPORTED YDAY ACROSS
COAMO...SANTA ISABEL...SALINAS AND GUAYAMA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TODAY AND THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT-SUN.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD WILDFIRES YESTERDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY. ANY FIRES WILL BE FUEL DRIVEN WHICH REMAIN VERY
DRY ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 73 81 73 / 40 30 40 50
STT 83 74 83 74 / 40 20 30 70

Thanks to keep us informed Cycloneye in spite of this rare event from you . You're always so precious with this forecast from PR . Even if most of of our carib friends are shy , i read carefully all your posts especially concerning this type of forecast .

Gustywind

[Gustywind]

SAINT-FRANÇOIS

Accident

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 156795.php

Boris COLOMBET France-Antilles Guadeloupe02.02.2012

CONTROVERSY. Faced with an engine failure, the pilot of the Cessna 150 thought that hard was behind him after the aircraft without case sensitive. It was not to mention the presence of a channel reported on any map and hidden by weeds. (Sylvère Selbonne)

No appreciation or pilotage error was conducted by the pilot-instructor victim Monday, the plane crash. Today, it is on what happened just after the exit of runway and explains why the single engine is returned.






"I have committed no fault and I am in no way responsible for the accident." On the contrary, I exactly did all that was needed. Anyway, I didn't have much alternative. "Except, perhaps, go ask me on a golf course filled with players or then planting me on the supermarket", now slip François.

Taunted by some of our users and third parties, prematurely, to have missed its landing, this pilot-instructor totalling nearly 4000 flight hours decided to speak. And deliver its version of the facts, dispel any misunderstanding. "Contrary to what one could hear, he was not a failed takeoff and still less than a crash." On the contrary, I perfectly managed my landing. "Anything good happened", he assures.

Words hardly admissible in view of the damage sustained by the aircraft? Not really... Because the incident which almost turn to drama, played just after. Not because of a hole or a bleeding, as the aircraft written, but simply of a "small drainage channel hidden by tall grass, pas reported on maps of aerodrome and not covered." Its presence, to the perpendicular of the runway, is unimaginable. Defective. It's a miracle we are still there. »

AN EMERGENCY LANDING

The genesis of the accident on Monday morning? She wished first of all to an engine failure, unpredictable and remained so far unexplained. But a failure by the driver. "It's true that I would be worthy almost ' a medal in chocolate for what I did", slides François.

And come back on the thread of events: "I was with Alexandra, my student for an instructional flight." It had just take off when arrived at 300 feet, we have been facing a loss of engine power. »

From yield to any panic while he had never been confronted with this type of incident (read below), François would immediately applied the emergency procedure. As taught in textbooks, that, too, to be applied in extreme situations: "it is level and it is preparing to ask." I therefore started a tour of the runway, to have a wind from the front. Because it always takes off and it always arrives with a wind from the front. »

During this manoeuvre, the situation is would be degraded a little more. "The engine was still lost its power." It decreased more and more. "In this context, François ensures have hardly had the choice: to avoid the Cessna would eventually win for good and to crashes, it stopped the u-turn to touch land as soon as possible. Even approach the runway "at against RWY" and therefore... with a wind in the back.

[b]TOO SHORT TRACK

"After having turned 180 degrees, I found myself parallel to the runway which was on my right, with still a wind in the back about 20 knots." The aircraft could no longer at all to hold altitude. At the last moment, I turned one last time to put myself in the axis. "In this manoeuvre of last chance, pilot-instructor knew perfectly well:"between the wind and my position, I couldn't take the beginning of runway. I have it touched in the last quarter. I was aware that she would be too short and I me would stop too long. But it was expected, I had the trajectory in mind. »

François would like to to allow a digression and cut short any sterile controversy: his decision was not suicidal. "Given the conditions, even if I had taken the trail at the beginning, it is would be shown too short." And then land too long, it sometimes. We end up in the grass and this is. The aircraft is planned for it, as very many tracks, at aerodromes are budding. » [/b]

"WITHOUT THE CANAL, IT STOPPED WITHOUT INCIDENT."

Except that there was this famous large gap. All expected in this landing step disaster. "Honestly, it was a miracle to be able to reach the runway." But was done and it landed normally. It remained only to stop. Without the channel, everything was well. "It stopped without incident,", resumed François which de jure be never doubted a moment of what would follow.

"When the aircraft is returned, I have not understood what was going on." I there didn't. The effect of surprise was terrible... So with herbs, this channel was not visible. Yet 30 years I'm flying on Saint-François and I no I had never heard about... If it had been reported, I have to avoid it. Turn right for example to work around this issue. What is certain, is that without it, there was no accident and the aircraft sank not. »

Between anger, bitterness and convinced to have escaped narrowly at worst "because of this" garbage"runway", François but also the owner of the machine say "to take to file a complaint."
-Gestation a complaint against the Department

The accident of the small Cessna 150 could quickly bounce in the judicial field. This is in any case that was, yesterday late in the day, Mr. Alain Roth, Council of the owner of the aircraft. After he went to the scene of the accident, counsel believes that the responsibility of the General Council but also that of its President Jacques Gillot can be committed. "I think file an interim administrative measures." Here, nothing seems to standards. ", and criticised Me Roth. And to address specifically the presence of the canal which, in the opinion of the driver, precipitated the disaster: "There was failure, in my view, to raise the offence of endangering others."


-Already in the air

François, the instructor pilot at the controls of the Cessna 150 that is returned Monday at the end of runway, was soon to resume a device handle. Yesterday morning, he also put gas on another device and was soaring again. "Why chasing I fly?". When a car accident, do you think that stop driving? ", questions, almost surprised.

Difficult, however, to forget the accident: "Until now I had never lived failure." I even thought the engine of an aircraft was exceptional and I had total confidence in him. Yet this morning, there was a bit of apprehension. In flight, I taken the ear for a suspicious noise. Despite nearly 4,000 hours of flight, I think that I will keep in a small corner of the head the memory of what I experienced. "Apparently the same is true of Alexandra, the 33-year-old student in the cockpit during the series of incidents encountered in the air and on the ground... "It will thrown in the afternoon." I must admit that it was perfect when the aircraft began to lose power. »


-"Sound of sheet is torn."

Even if he had good reflexes and took the right decisions, François admits: "It had the chance." From bravado, he admits even had "the fear of his life." Understandable. Above all when this driver is on the moments when everything changed: "A wheel fell into the canal and the aircraft returned by sliding several metres. It was impressive. There were pieces of plexiglas windshield flew by, noise of scrap metal which scraped the ground, one sheet is torn. All this adds yet dust and the engine oil that is upon us. The worst is that everything happens while it is not expected. The effect of surprise is total: on bute on something that could not see. Without knowing immediately what that it could well be. »

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WX FEATURE. A SFC TROF EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRESS WWD LATE TONIGHT AND SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER WX IS EXPECTED TODAY AS COMPARED TO PAST FEW
DAYS BUT A SFC TROF LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING
FIRST ACROSS ST. CROIX AND THEN WWD ACROSS ERN PR AND THE ATLC
AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL THIS EVENING. SFC TROF THEN MOVES INTO THE
MONA PASSAGE BY SUN AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH
SHOULD LOOSEN THE PRES GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP. LOW-LVL WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHEAST FOR A CHANGE ALLOWING SCT-NMRS SHRAS AND EVEN POSSIBLE
TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR. DID NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER AT THIS
TIME GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR BUT THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
REEVALUATED AS K INDICES CLIMB TO NEAR 30.

NEXT WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS BUT WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLD TO
SCT SHRAS WITH WRN AND NW PR THE MOST PREFERED LOCATION DUE TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WHICH IS QUITE A
CONTRAST FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFT 05/00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...INTENSE LOW PRES ACROSS THE NW ATLC IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL 50+KT VECTORS BY A
0105Z ASCAT PASS. THIS INSTRUMENT HAS A SIG LOW BIAS FOR WINDS AT
THIS MAGNITUDE AS COMPARED TO THE OLD QUIKSCAT SATELLITE WITH
RESEARCH STUDIES DONE INDICATING THAT WINDS OF 50+KT INDICATED BY
THE ASCAT SHOULD BE INCREASED TO A LEAST ONE CATEGORY. SO IT IS
ASSUMED THAT A SMALL AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS BEING
GENERATED BY THIS INTENSE LOW PRES AREA. ANYTIME HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OCCUR ACROSS THE NW ATLC DURING THE WINTER SEASON THIS
TYPICALLY YIELDS HIGH SURF WITH BREAKING WAVES GREATER THAN 10 FT
ON THE ATLC COAST OF PR. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-6 FT BUT INCREASE UP
TO 9 FT BY MON IN NORTH SWELLS. SCA AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL
BE REQUIRED BUT TOO EARLY ATTM TO ISSUE THEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER TODAY THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER THAN YDAY. WHILE MIN_RH MAY DROP INTO THE 40-45%...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER UP TO ABOUT 15KT. FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN BY FUELS WHICH REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS OF COAMO...SANTA ISABEL..SALINAS AND GUAYAMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 73 83 73 / 40 40 50 10
STT 84 74 84 74 / 30 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE TOUGH TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES RETROGRESSES...AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA STARTING TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL WATERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS SAINT THOMAS. 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTED THAT MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS AT 1.08 INCHES.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS
TIME...EVEN THOUGH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FOR SUNDAY BUT SO FAR
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY SEEM LOW. ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND REMAIN FROM THAT DIRECTION UNTIL MID WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 05/00Z. AFTERWORDS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A LONG PERIOD SWELL
FROM THE NORTH INVADES THE LOCAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE UP TO 9 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 71 82 / 40 50 10 20
STT 74 84 74 84 / 50 50 20 20