Texas Spring 2023

[Iceresistance]

As expected, most of OK has been downgraded to marginal. Looks like a small area of favorable tornado potential could materialize in far SW OK/NW TX along the red river, where a 5% tor area has been added.

Getting some solid rain/non severe storms though, so I'm certainly not complaining. I'd much rather have this than something like 2/26 or 4/19

Rain is definitely overperforming here for sure

Got an inch already, parts of OKC may have gotten 2.

[Iceresistance]

18z HRRR shows that there is a Supercell threat for DFW tonight, and there is a non-zero chance for storms on Friday, even though I strongly doubt any will develop in Central Oklahoma because of stronger inversion with weaker instability.

Saturday? Well, that is much more likely...

[bubba hotep]

18z HRRR shows that there is a Supercell threat for DFW tonight, and there is a non-zero chance for storms on Friday, even though I strongly doubt any will develop in Central Oklahoma because of stronger inversion with weaker instability.

Saturday? Well, that is much more likely...

It has been trending that way all afternoon. It's convinced those storms in the western portion of the watch will bend back SE later this evening.

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM also on board.

[bubba hotep]

Who had large hail after dark for DFW? 20z HRRR with some very stout UH tracks across DFW. Even a tornado can't be ruled out.

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/LandonWX10/status/1654238674815533056

[txtwister78]

Large Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1654243527675740161

[ElectricStorm]

18z HRRR shows that there is a Supercell threat for DFW tonight, and there is a non-zero chance for storms on Friday, even though I strongly doubt any will develop in Central Oklahoma because of stronger inversion with weaker instability.

Saturday? Well, that is much more likely...

As of right now, I don't really see Saturday being a big event overall. There will probably be some big parameters but not a whole lot in terms of actual storms. That being said though, it's May so most days will see severe weather somewhere, and more than likely one or both of the marginal risk areas get upgraded to slight.

Personally I'm more interested in Sunday for now, I think it's got some decent potential for a bigger event, but we'll see.

[Iceresistance]

18z HRRR shows that there is a Supercell threat for DFW tonight, and there is a non-zero chance for storms on Friday, even though I strongly doubt any will develop in Central Oklahoma because of stronger inversion with weaker instability.

Saturday? Well, that is much more likely...

As of right now, I don't really see Saturday being a big event overall. There will probably be some big parameters but not a whole lot in terms of actual storms. That being said though, it's May so most days will see severe weather somewhere, and more than likely one or both of the marginal risk areas get upgraded to slight.

Personally I'm more interested in Sunday for now, I think it's got some decent potential for a bigger event, but we'll see.

Yeah, the GFS shows that possibility.

Also, we are likely in the beginning of an extended Severe Weather Sequence. It all started on May 2nd.

[Cpv17]

That’s one incredibly strong storm that’s about to hit Comanche, TX.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado on the ground north of Brownwood.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR was like, "oh, yeah, no storms for DFW this Spring" lol

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

This cell could be trouble for the NE burbs of DFW if it holds together and continues to deviate SE

[bubba hotep]

The ultimate DFW watch lol

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/chasetxwx/status/1654224248985067521

[Cpv17]

The ultimate DFW watch lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FvU7AfnacAMOjlU?format=jpg&name=small

Lmao wtf!!! That’s wild

[HockeyTx82]

Does that storm in NW Denton county have some rotation or am I seeing things?

[bubba hotep]

Does that storm in NW Denton county have some rotation or am I seeing things?

The hail core is ticking up for sure. Looks to be trending toward Denton, might move just north of there.

[HockeyTx82]

Does that storm in NW Denton county have some rotation or am I seeing things?

The hail core is ticking up for sure. Looks to be trending toward Denton, might move just north of there.

Seeing some purple, that storm is flexing.