Florida Weather

[psyclone]

30% severe risk on Sunday from the I-4 corridor of central Florida up to extreme southeast Georgia...there's some potential of a significant event here in what is a very El Nino-ish pattern. Probably a good squall line propagating east very rapidly with all modes of svr wx possible.

[Ntxw]

Some of the ensemble guidance retrograde the PNA ridge which then brings back some southeast ridging towards the end of the 14 day period. Regardless before then +PNA will send a trough and perhaps a quick, sharp cold air mass to the eastern Conus and towards Florida by month's end. The retrogression just means it won't have staying power and moderates shortly after. No help yet seen from the AO/NAO to hold it in place.

[Patrick99]

I'm in Boca Raton and the coldest low I see is 59 degrees on Feb 1st so I'm totally not buying the cold air making it down here.

I agree. It'll be cool for a couple mornings, with temps in the low 50s, but not all that significant, at least for South Florida. Just plain old nice winter weather for us. It looks like the colder days will be Jan 29-31.

[gatorcane]

Some of the ensemble guidance retrograde the PNA ridge which then brings back some southeast ridging towards the end of the 14 day period. Regardless before then +PNA will send a trough and perhaps a quick, sharp cold air mass to the eastern Conus and towards Florida by month's end. The retrogression just means it won't have staying power and moderates shortly after. No help yet seen from the AO/NAO to hold it in place.

The GFS has shown a persistent trough with shortwave after shortwave pivoting around the long-wave trough in the long-range as shown the 12Z GFS run animation below from hour 168 to 384. If this happens and the NAO goes negative for a change, this would be an extended period of cold for Florida with possible freeze threats into the peninsula of Florida.

[otowntiger]

I like it. Bring on some refreshing, bug/exotic plant killing cold to central Florida for a change. I love to be able to light my fire place every now and then.

[AdamFirst]

I like it. Bring on some refreshing, bug/exotic plant killing cold to central Florida for a change. I love to be able to light my fire place every now and then.

Yeah, my dad hasn't had much opportunity to use the fire pit much this winter. He loves using it.

[gatorcane]

Models looking quite cold for Florida starting around the 27th-28th featuring a long-wave pattern with a sharp trough over the Eastern Half of the United States with multiple reinforcing shortwaves rotating around the long-wave trough - haven't seen this setup in a long time if it verifies. Would bring NW flow from Canada directly down into Florida for an extended period of time. The GFS parallel, which seems to have had a warm-bias this winter so far oozes a freeze into Central Florida, in the long-range:

[chaser1]

Yep, quite interested in seeing how much global models bolster a nice fat deep layer ridge over the Western U.S/Aleutians. Such a set up as opposed to a more transient yet progressive one would certainly seem to put us here in Florida under a far more consistent overall northerly flow, while simply allowing new shortwaves to drive southward with reinforcing pockets of cold air. I'm seeing the potential for what might turn out to be at least a solid couple weeks of colder conditions for nearly all Florida.... perhaps much of February.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS just out and yet again show a persistent trough that develops over the Eastern United States ushering an extended period of below normal temps for Florida.

Animation of long-range 168 hours to 384:

[MetroMike]

I'm more concerned over the severe weather threat for Sunday Afternoon/evening across Central FL.
This is the next event which could wind up being a large issue.
https://uploadpie.com/rsZl7C

[northjaxpro]

I'm more concerned over the severe weather threat for Sunday Afternoon/evening across Central FL.
This is the next event which could wind up being a large issue.
https://uploadpie.com/rsZl7C

Agree. I have been monitoring this severe wx potential for the past few days. The threat really has been enhanced significantly across North Florida in particular. Looking at the latest models, helicity values look very concerning for the northern peninsula. The threat for tornadoes and wind damage and hail are really going to be a danger this weekend. I am expecting SPC to issue watches for much of parts of the Deep South and portions of the Florida peninsula beginning Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening period. I will be on the alert most definitely during this weekend!!!!

[psyclone]

I'm more concerned over the severe weather threat for Sunday Afternoon/evening across Central FL.
This is the next event which could wind up being a large issue.
https://uploadpie.com/rsZl7C

You are correct. This has significant potential. Forbes is giving a torcon of 4 for central florida....a respectable number but the potential of damaging straight line winds is probably the biggest threat. We're probably going to see a fast moving squall line rip across the state and it could be a whopper...this has had my attention for days and if anything the potential has increased as the event draws nearer. As for the cool down I definitely buy it but it remains to be seen whether any freeze threat develops.

[northjaxpro]

SPC has wide area of Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region of North Florida for Enhanced risk for severe wx Saturday afternoon into evening. and Marginal risk for aresa down to the Central Florida region. A very active srvere wx event potentially taking shape.

[gatorcane]

Both the 18Z GFS and parallel GFS are cold for Florida with a deep long-wave trough over the Eastern United States

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope it happens but I don't see any signals that would put that kind of cold down the peninsula. Maybe I'm wrong but NAO/AO shows no real neg.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[NDG]

Definitely a pattern change coming for the FL Peninsula starting next week with a big ridge developing over western Canada & NW US resulting in lower heights for the southern US. Currently the NAO is slightly negative but all ensemble members show it going back to a positive phase which means the temps over the next 7-14 days will not be record breaking cold by no means, IMO, we may see a couple of frosty morning across the I-4 corridor but I just don't see damaging freezing temps for the upcoming days due to the NAO going back positive. It will be a nice change to give my A/C a break before the Spring warmth really takes over later in February/March.

[psyclone]

SVR risk Sunday remains substantial with slight risk over south florida and enhanced over portions of central to north florida. Sig severe risk is collocated with the ENH zone which is roughly north of a line from the cape to Sarasota and east of a line from Cape San Blas to the GA/FL/AL triple point. In general the Eastern TLH CWA, JAX CWA look to be really under the gun.

[northjaxpro]

Currently watching a very strong.line of thunderstorms occuring just north of the Interstate 10 corridor near and along the Florida-Georgia border. I am watching this line closely as it will impact all of extreme SE GA and eventually move into North and Northeast Florida within the next couple of hours.

[chaser1]

SVR risk Sunday remains substantial with slight risk over south florida and enhanced over portions of central to north florida. Sig severe risk is collocated with the ENH zone which is roughly north of a line from the cape to Sarasota and east of a line from Cape San Blas to the GA/FL/AL triple point. In general the Eastern TLH CWA, JAX CWA look to be really under the gun.

Looking at the satellite loop and slow east and southward progression of strong showers just north of Jax (and likely developing to the West and SW of there), i'd guess that cells containing significant energy might not propagate much further south than the Jax area this evening, with intensities beginning to wane by 1:00 or 2:00am. Tomorrow's another story and while I have a somewhat different take on the overall likelihood for severe weather to effect the West Florida Coast through Central Florida, I would guess that those area's along N.E. Florida (perhaps Cocoa Beach north to Jax) might have the best shot at seeing some tornadic cells or significant straight line winds.

My thoughts are (and I could admittedly be dead wrong) that there will be little threat for any organized or widespread severe conditions for areas from Tampa to Gainesville, south to Orlando and points south and west of Lake O. My reasoning is that the primary energy from the Low itself appears to me to be moving a bit more north than eastward and I'm thinking that we might see an exaggeratedly bowing and fragmented narrow squall line fly through tomm. evening anywhere from dusk to mid evening as it outruns ahead of the main vorticity forecast to drop southeast and through Central Florida at least 6 hours or more later early Monday a.m. I could possibly see a secondary squall line forming crossing Central Florida around midnight to early a.m. hours but given the primarily unidirectional low to mid level southwesterly flow, I'm thinking that that there wouldn't be as much threat for tornadic activity relative to if the surface flow were more southeasterly. I'm not aware of any tornado or severe storm watches in effect thus far either.

[psyclone]

new day 1 has moderate risk scraping northern florida...the tornado probs are disconcerting up that way with the southern extent of the 10% hatched zone getting as far south as Hernando county...south of there straight line winds appear to the be the primary hazard and with those very strong winds aloft some svr wind reports seem a good bet. I expect tornado watches to eventually be hoisted for much of the peninsula to cover these hazards with the higher end probability watches to the north. Nevertheless the severe potential around central florida looks meaningful and certainly the highest of this winter season thus far.