Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are the temperatures registered on March 9 2012 in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.9°C (30.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.6°C (47.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.8°C (74.8°F) Warmest since November 15 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 34.0°C (93.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.7°C (101.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.6°C (70.9°F)

[Macrocane]

And these are the temperatures registered on March 10 2012.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.6°C (38.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.9°C (53.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.9°C (78.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.9°C (102.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.7°C (67.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST MON MAR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF OF THE
U.S. MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ON MONDAY

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.

ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THEREFORE EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO SUPPORT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR...SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12/18Z. BETWEEN 12/18-12/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TJPS...AND TJMZ IN SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A MODERATE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES BY MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 72 / 40 20 20 50
STT 83 72 83 73 / 50 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A variable weather pattern will prevail in the NE Caribbean thru this week with intervals of sun and scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST MON MAR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRODUCT
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
WHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND LIFTS SIGHTLY EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS CREATE MODERATE TO
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
IN THE MEANTIME HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH JUST EAST OF THE REGION...WILL HELP CREATE
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
INDUCING A PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS WEAK
SHEAR LINE WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN BY MID WEEK...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. IN THE MEANTIME...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
AT LEAST MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DECREASING DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

UNTIL THEN...WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE/SHEAR LINE AND PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE AND STREAM PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT THE DAYTIME ACTIVITY TO
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
DUE TO THE CURRENT WIND FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN SOME AREAS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...
TJMZ...AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 12/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 82 / 30 30 40 40
STT 72 83 73 83 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST TUE MAR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER
LAND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO GET DRIER TODAY...AS A
SLOT OF DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS SHOWS THIS VERY WELL...WITH PW DROPPING TO BELOW 1.0
INCH. HOWEVER...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK TO
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION
OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE KEEP MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS PROMISE TO BRING THESE PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
FACT...COMPUTER MODELS AGREE THAT WETTEST CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY...AS A BIG AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG
WINDS AT 250 MB...PROMISE TO BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS TO BE LIMITED NEXT 24 HOURS BUT NOT W/O ISOLD
SHRA TODAY. LACK OF MOISTURE ENSURES THAT MVFR CONDS WILL BE VERY
BRIEF IF AT ALL. SLIGHT INCR IN MOISTURE TONIGHT SUGGESTS PSBL SCT
SHRA EASTERN PR AND USVI...BUT STILL XPCT VFR TO DOMINATE. WIND ENE
TO 15 KT AOB FL050 BUT LGT/VRBL ABV TO FL150.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 83 73 / 10 40 40 40
STT 83 73 83 73 / 20 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Same weather pattern is expected for Puerto Rico with some scattered showers moving thru tonight and lasting until Wednesday,but overall good weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST TUE MAR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS
WILL HOLD A STRONGER THAN USUAL JET STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. BEST PATTERN OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT APPEARS ONLY
ON SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL DIG OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE IN THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A BAND OF MOISTURE IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
AND WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON A WIND SHIFT ON FRIDAY AND LINGER UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE PATTERN OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAY BREAK
DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A SHORT PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AS OF 3 PM AST AND DOWNSTREAM
FROM MOST OF THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WERE
MOVING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN A SHORT WHILE AFTER SUNSET. LATER THIS
EVENING A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO AND THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BETTER BAND OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME AFTER 14/08Z. SINCE THE BAND IS
FAIRLY BROAD AND NOT PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING...EFFECTS FROM THE
BAND IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS THEN SHOW
AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS RETURNING SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...THAN ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND AFTER SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO HELP THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MUCH SINCE THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW. A PERSISTENT
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS IS
HOLDING A VERY STRONG JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA...WITH
GFS MODEL WIND SPEEDS AT 250 MB BETWEEN 80 AND 105 KNOTS OVER SAN
JUAN...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO THE EAST. BUT WITHOUT THE CONNECTING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN NOT AGAIN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK
IF AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
ABOUT 13/22Z. AFT 13/22Z...PASSING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF TJSJ AND TIST THROUGH 14/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE WAVE WATCH SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH OVER 10 FEET AT BUOY 41043. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGH...BUT SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT`S SEA
ACTION WILL BE A MIX OF NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL OF AROUND 10 SECONDS
AND A NEARLY EQUAL WIND WAVE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 9 SECONDS.
SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MET
IN THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT WHERE WINDS AND SEAS ENTER FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 83 / 50 50 30 30
STT 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 20 20

[msbee]

Hurricane Hunters will be on St. Maarten on Friday

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/component/ ... craft.html

[cycloneye]

Barbara, after St Maarten, San Juan will be the last stop (On Saturday) of this years awareness tour.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 24391.html


Hunting hurricanes of the reserve air force American aircraft will return to the Isla Grande airport on Saturday 17 March so that the public can know it, as well as reports on the precautionary measures that should be taken prior to the start of the hurricane season.

The executive director of the State Agency for the management of emergency and administration of disasters (AEMEAD), Heriberto Saurí, reported that that day will be given literature on the subject and there will be around 29 exhibitions of other agencies of the Government, Federal agencies, municipalities and private enterprise.He said that there will also be an exhibition of rapid response and rescue vehicles.

"This visit of the fighter aircraft hurricanes intends to guide and educate citizens about storms and hurricanes, their careers and the development of the same to take precautions to ensure that they can protect their lives and properties before an event of this nature", the official said.

[Macrocane]

Hi! The Caribbean side of Central America has experienced cooler than normal highs thanks tostronger than normal trades but the Pacific side has been warmer. These are the temps registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador and Panama. Near normal in Belize, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.2°C (32.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.5°C (50.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.6°C (78.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.2°C (77.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.4°C (101.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.8°C (51.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.4°C (93.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.4°C (66.9°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST TUE MAR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC TO THE
CNTRL CARIBBEAN OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL DRYING AND A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHEAST US COAST IS FCST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WRN ATLC THU-FRI AND ALLOW SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO BUILD NWD
INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK FCST
TO RELOCATE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. AS TRADE
WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK EXPECT AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PR. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IS ALSO FCST TO INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH SETTLES TO
THE WEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FOCUS ACROSS WRN PR WITH
NORTH AND SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS REMAINING MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ALSO...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ DUE TO
LOWER CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 14/17Z TO 14/21Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING DURING THE DAY
MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS XCPT FOR A WEST WIND ALONG THE WEST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS ARRIVED AT BUIY 41043 THIS MORNING AND
SWELL DECAY NOMOGRAMS INDICATE THAT THESE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AT
THE ATLC COAST SHORTLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-8 FT. WAVE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY AND THIS WARRANTS SCA FOR ALL
OPEN WATERS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO WAVE HEIGHTS AND SCAS
WITH 1030 PM ISSUANCE TO SPEED UP START TIMES OF SCA`S.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NMRS FIRES BURNED TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY. IT APPEARS THAT THE VERY DRY SOILS AND
LACK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ACROSS THOSE AREAS ARE HAVING A STRONG
EFFECT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS AS OBSERVED BY THE CAMP
SANTIAGO RAWS WHICH MEASURED 90F/58F AND MIN_RH OF 35-37%. CONDITIONS
TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LARGEST RAINFALL
DEFICITS ARE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND COULD
SUPPORT RAPID AND EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH GIVEN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
WINDS STILL BE CRITICAL TOMORROW WITH A DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED
THU AND ESPECIALLY OVR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 82 / 10 10 10 10
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 10

[Macrocane]

I have updated the Central American Cold Surges thread with the observations from last week event, that possibly was the last one of the season. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2216751#p2216751

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST WED MAR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING
THE NORTHEAST USA IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
THE LOCAL WATERS...AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS WERE SAINT THOMAS...EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST BETWEEN MANATI AND ARECIBO. THE
PREVAILING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. THEN...
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MODELS SUGGEST A PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. AS THE WINDS DECREASE...MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE CYCLES. IF THE
CELLS GROW ENOUGH...THE VENTILATION ABOVE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS BETWEEN 14/17Z AND 14/21Z IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS ARRIVED AT BUOY 41053 THIS
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHT HAS BEEN AROUND 7 FEET WITH PERIOD BETWEEN 9
AND 10 SECONDS. WAVE MODELS APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY AND
WE EXPECT THAT THE SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
REMAINING COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LARGEST
RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
AND COULD SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH GIVEN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
WINDS STILL BE CRITICAL TODAY WITH A DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 84 73 / 40 40 40 20
STT 83 73 84 73 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The long range forecast shows increasing moisture with better dynamics for heavy thunderstorms to form in the afternoon's,so we will watch for that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST WED MAR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS CONTINUES WEST OF
THE AREA WITH A STRONG JET OVER AND EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE EAST
AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE THE NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FORM JUST EAST OF VIRGINIA AND
SINK SOUTH TO EAST OF FLORIDA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP WEST OR WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND
MUCH OF NEXT. MID LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY DRY UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK BAND OF MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR. THE RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE AROUND 33 NORTH WILL GRADUALLY FADE LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES.
MODEL HINTS AT WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN FORMED OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM GUAYANILLA TO PONCE...LEAVING UPWARD OF 3
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN A FEW LOCAL AREAS. SOME SHOWERS ALSO MOVED
IN OVER CEIBA...FAJARDO AND LUQUILLO. A WEAK BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLOODING TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIGHT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GFS HAS HAD PROBLEMS. WHOLE
CHUNKS OF BOTH THE 06 AND 12Z RUN WERE MISSING. IT ALSO HAS HAD
TROUBLE WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES WITH THE CORE HEIGHTS VARYING AS MUCH AS 80 METERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS CAUSED LOW PRESSURE TO FORM A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND RAISED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER LATE IN THE
FORECAST RUN. AT THIS TIME SUSPECT THAT FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
SHOWERS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED UNTIL THEN...WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN PART OF PUERTO
RICO EACH DAY. PASSING PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS.

SHOULD MODEL TRENDS HOLD...A TRANSITION INTO A WETTER PATTERN
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SEEN AREA-WIDE. THE GFS WAS
SHOWING WINDS AT 850 MB GAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK AND PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AT 700 MB...ALL OF
WHICH WOULD AID BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
ABOUT 14/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPROVE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH NOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO BE DOWN EVERYWHERE BEFORE THE END OF FRIDAY AND SEAS
BELOW 6 FEET BEFORE MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 82 / 40 40 20 20
STT 73 84 74 84 / 40 40 20 20

[Macrocane]

El Salvador is still the outsider in Central America and has experienced much above normal maximum temperatures while the others have been normal or below normal, actually San Salvador experienced its warmest temperature in over 2 years. These are the temp registered yesterday March 13 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.7°C (35.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.8°C (53.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.9°C (58.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 36.0°C (96.8°F) HOTTEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2 2010
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.4°C (102.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.6°C (92.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA MEANDERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MOVING MAINLY WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS. CLEAR SKIES WITH NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SURFACE WINDS WAS INFLUENCED BY THE LAND BREEZES. AT THIS TIME...
SATELLITE DERIVED PW ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER(PW) VALUES OF LESS THAN
AN INCH WITH THIS AIR MASS. THE LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE LOCAL REGION AS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA. OVERALL...IN ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...
EXPECT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE TRADES WILL EASE TO MODERATE RANGE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND
TJMZ BETWEEN 15/17Z AND 15/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 72 / 0 10 10 10
STT 84 74 84 73 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Not much changes to the pattern that we are experiencing for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG WIND
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATE IN THE MORNING THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...ACROSS THE FA...AS A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE EFFECT OF THE COMBINATION OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...
ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ALOFT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ACCORDINGLY TO GFS...PWAT VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1.00 TO
1.25 INCHES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE SATURDAY. THESE VALUES OF PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
GENERATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCAL INTENSE
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON SPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDUCING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY AND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE
THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
SPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 15/21Z.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
STT 72 84 71 84 / 10 20 0 10

[Macrocane]

El Salvador continues to be a hell (except for the high areas) while the other countries have experienced cooler than normal highs. In the case of Panama it has been almost 10 days with well above normal lows. These are the temperatures registered yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.2°C (32.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.0°C (53.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.5°C (77.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Belize. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F) HOTTEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2 2010
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.5°C (103.1°F)
Puente Cuscatlán, El Salvador 41.0°C (105.8°F) HOTTEST TEMPERATURE IN EL SALVADOR SINCE MAY 6 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A mainly good weekend weatherwise is expected in the NE Caribbean with some passing showers moving with the trade winds. The normal interior afternoon showers in PR will occur.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS PRESSING AGAINST A SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINING A TIGHT GRADIENT AND A
SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL PREVAILED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MOVING MAINLY WEST AT AROUND 15 KTS. THE MOST INTENSE CELL WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 30 NM NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA. ATTM...IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING MAINLY TO THE WEST AND MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE DERIVED PW
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) OF
AROUND ONE INCH JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DRIER AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THIS
TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONDUCIVE TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEST MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...
LOCAL EFFECTS AND SUFFICIENT VENTILATION ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE 0-6 KM AVG WIND AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER LAND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN 16/18Z
AND 16/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 74 / 20 10 10 30
STT 84 72 84 74 / 30 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST FRI MAR 16 2012

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED JET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. IN
FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH MODEST PW VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE 1.20 INCHES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING AFTERWARDS AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE INTENSIFIES. AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS ON
MONDAY-TUESDAY COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ
BETWEEN 16/18Z AND 16/22Z. CONDS CLEARING FROM THE E AFT 16/22Z.
LLVL WINDS EASTERLY 10 TO 20 KT UP TO 8 KFT...WESTERLY ABV 12 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 83 / 10 10 20 30
STT 72 84 74 83 / 10 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

El Salvador was a little less hot yesterday. These are the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.2°C (46.8°F) Warmest since February 10
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.9°C (78.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in El Salvador and Belize. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.2°C (100.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.3°C (50.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)