Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe a good cool down mid Feb.. Just was looking at the AO/NAO. Shows AO crashing. But I've seen that before. Then the models flip back. The NAO going a little Neg. too. Will see. I guess. At least down here it will get back to normal temps this weekend.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[northjaxpro]

Stormy night across Jacksonville and Northeast Florida. Some severe storms moving through the area. Gainesville reported 1/2 inch hail the past 30 minutes. Wind gusts to near 50 mph in Keystone Heights in Clay County. Currently, heavy rain falling here at the home station.

[Bocadude85]

Hey all. I haven't posted in awhile, we really haven't had much of a winter in S.Fla that is for sure. I will be relocating to Kona, Hawaii in about three weeks so my eyes will be on the pacific hurricane season this year. Hope everyone stays safe and happy weather watching.

[psyclone]

a much more refreshing airmass is advecting in with dews crashing in north florida. tonight's seasonal low near 50 in the bay area will feel frigid after all this warmth and humidity. another multi day stretch of phenomenal weather is on the way.

[Patrick99]

There was a lot of fog in Miami this morning. Seemed more like a late March-April thing....didn't burn off as quickly as usual, either.

Can't wait for this little cool hit. Looking back in the thread to some of the long range projections, this one really went from something to practically nothing

[northjaxpro]

GFS has been very consistent the past few days of developing an active southern jet stream, and eventual slow moving Low Pressure system off the Texas coast early next week. The Low then slowly moves east across the Northern GOM and gradually intensifies as it moves across North Florida from 2/16 - 2/18 (next weekend). This potentially could be another severe weather event and big rain event as well. Something to watch in the coming days.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yea looks like both GFS and EURO depicting some kind of noreaster forming down texas and heading north.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=300

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[psyclone]

I'm intrigued by the heavy rain/svr potential. FWIW the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have florida on the wet side of normal so there's a decent signal...especially considering those forecasts have been overwhelmingly (and accurately) dry this winter. I find stormy weather far more interesting than fantasy freezes anyway so this could be interesting to watch evolve. Feb/March is Florida's spring svr season so it makes sense from a climo standpoint too.

[Patrick99]

These long range winter fantasy freezes are starting to become like model runs in the summer that show Cat 3 hurricanes into Miami 10-14 days out.

[TheStormExpert]

These long range winter fantasy freezes are starting to become like model runs in the summer that show Cat 3 hurricanes into Miami 10-14 days out.

Couldn't agree more! The GFS is most known for this especially since it's runs extend 15 days out. But one has to wonder why there have not been any fixes to these errors with all the money put into them for upgrades?

[Patrick99]

So now, apparently, passage of cold fronts now makes it warmer

NWS Miami snippet:

" Convective possibilities are something that bears
watching, but for now confidence too low to include thunder the
the grids. Little cool air is currently expected with this front,
and present forecast suggests even warmer temperatures in drier
air behind the front on Sunday."

[psyclone]

with the eastern 2/3 of the nation expected to torch for the remainder of Feb, it's past due to state the obvious...another non winter is spent, dead and finished. Marginal risk covers most of Florida in the day 3 convective outlook...so we do have something to watch.

[Hurricaneman]

with the eastern 2/3 of the nation expected to torch for the remainder of Feb, it's past due to state the obvious...another non winter is spent, dead and finished. Marginal risk covers most of Florida in the day 3 convective outlook...so we do have something to watch.

Yep, We may get a cool shot in March but otherwise it looks unseasonably warm with maybe a chance of T-Storms on Thursday

[CDO62]

Hopefully some much needed rain for Central Florida will be moving in tomorrow. 2 winters in a row now without any serious freezing temps. Another winter like this. and I'll be planting Coconut Palms in my yard north of Tampa.

Latest Tampa NWS discussion......


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
High amplitude U/L pattern will persist across the CONUS
with an extensive ridge over western North America...and a
split flow pattern circumventing the ridge. A strong
southern stream disturbance currently over the Lower
Mississippi Valley will come in phase and be absorbed by the
northern stream tonight and Wednesday as it tracks across
the southeast U.S. Strong southern stream zonal flow will
develop across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

At the surface, high pressure will move over the western Atlantic
tonight exiting the region while an area of low pressure tracks from
the Lower Mississippi Valley to the southeastern states. Increasing
southerly flow tonight ahead of the front will create favorable
conditions for low clouds and patchy fog to develop after midnight.
Decreasing risk for fog early Wednesday morning as boundary layer
winds strengthen which will enhance low level mixing. A cold front
will approach the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight/early
Wednesday morning with a band of showers and strong thunderstorms
ahead of the front...which will push across west central and
southwest Florida on Wednesday. The gradient will tighten
significantly ahead of the cold front with Lake Wind Advisories
likely needed on Wednesday as southwest winds gusting to around 30
mph are expected to develop in many areas, with higher gusts along
the immediate coast of west central Florida. High risk of rip
currents and high surf will likely develop at area beaches.

There will be both aiding and inhibiting factors for severe weather
on Wednesday as the band of showers/thunderstorms move across the
region. Relatively low CAPE/high shear environment will develop over
the forecast area Wednesday with bulk shear values increasing to
around 40 knots with helicity values around 150 to 200...and CAPE
around 1000-1200. Timing of a strong 90 to 100 knot southern stream
jet speed max, which is expected to move across the southern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida on Wednesday, may aid in enhancing U/L diffluence
over the region as it potentially couples with an exiting polar jet
running up the eastern seaboard. However the southern stream speed
max may exit east of Florida prior to the line of convection
reaching the forecast area. Mid level dry air over west central and
southwest Florida will hinder widespread deep convection, although a
few stronger updrafts may entrain dry mid level air which will
enhance risk for strong downburst winds. Low level flow will also
become increasing uni-directional through the afternoon hours as
boundary layer winds shift to the southwest which will weaken low
level convergence. This all lends itself to the current SPC
analysis of a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the
entire forecast area on Wednesday, although the best chance for
severe thunderstorms would appear to be across the northern forecast
area where the best large scale dynamics will be in place as the
line of showers/thunderstorms initially approach the region.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Every week the models show a vigorous system with a chance of stong storms. By the time it gets close it peters out down here. Once again the models show a vigoruos system for like 2/22-2/25. Most likely it will not happen once again.

hile this system is
still quite distant in the forecast period, the amount of
consensus between the 00z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf) in a strong system
entering the Gulf with a mid-level cutoff low capable of digging
as far south as Cuba (if the European model (ecmwf) can be believed here) raises
some need to maintain awareness of the forecast evolution over the
next week or so as the extended period draws to a close.

[gatorcane]

Both the EC and GFS are in pretty good agreement here. Looks like this one needs to be watched as a potential big weather maker for the FL peninsula early next to mid-next week. Pattern continues to be quite "El Nino-ish" with the active subtropical JET.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'll believe it a little when it gets closer to 22-24th and the models are still consistent.

[psyclone]

watch the WPC 7 day QPF maps...from day 5 to day 7 there is a big eastern lurch across the gulf of heavy precip...if we just extrapolate beyond that forecast timeframe it would seem to imply very wet conditions incoming. the CPC 6-10 day is also wet. Obviously too soon to know but the signals are there so this will be an interesting situation to keep tabs on as it reels in closer. As others have said it is a very el nino-ish pattern.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Speaking of el ninoish. The SOI index fell to -40 today and nino 3.4 hit .715 today. Which was posted in the tropic section of storm2k.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... nino34.png

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... /index.php

[gatorcane]

Impressive