Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

It will be a variable weekend in Puerto Rico with sun mixed with clouds and heavy downpours in the afternoons in interior PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW ATLC
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACARS PLOT CLEARLY SHOWED THAT LOCAL AREA WAS UNDER
THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION TODAY OF
125-KT JET STREAK NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WHICH RESULTED IN VERY
MINIMAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TOMORROW AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY OVR THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DIGS INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CARVES OUT A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. AS THIS
OCCURS...JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITH LOCAL AREA EXPECTED
TO BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY FVRBL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET STREAK SAT AND
SUN TO GIVE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT SHOULD CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES GIVEN AN ENE LOW
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
EAST UNDER A WEAK 0-6KM MEAN FLOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO EXPECTED SLOW MOTION.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT JMZ AND JPS DUE
TO VCSH/VCTS. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH JUST SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
SIMILAR WX IS XPCD SUN WITH A DECREASING TREND IN CONVECTION
EXPECTED MON-WED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY AT 4-5 FT ATLC WATERS BUT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVR THE WEEKEND WITH 2-4 FT SEAS COMMON ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS. SCEC WILL REMAIN EFFECT DUE TO WINDS 15-20 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE SRN SLOPES SAT AND SUN AS THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER
INCREASINGLY FVBRL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WRN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. NOT SURE WHETHER SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN WILL
SEE ANY SIG RAIN BUT CONVECTIVE BLOWUP FROM TSTMS SHOULD RESULT IN
SIG CLOUD COVER AND KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW. NORTH COASTAL AREAS AND
USVI WILL REMAIN DRY BUT INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF FUEL IGNITION LOW IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 82 / 0 0 20 20
STT 73 76 73 76 / 0 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST SAT MAR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT IN OCCASIONAL BANDS
AND PATCHES OR WILL POOLED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...
GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE FA AND A STRONG JET REMAINING
NEARBY...EXPECT THE MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND DYNAMICS...TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJPS BETWEEN 17/18Z AND 17/22Z. PREVAILING SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FM THE EAST AT 15 KTS OR LESS. JET MAX OF
100+ KTS WAS MEASURED AROUND 42 KFT BY THE TJSJ 17/00Z SOUNDING.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES TODAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOCAL AREA COMES UNDER INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST OF
THE LOCAL REGION. NOT SURE WHETHER SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN WILL SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN BUT CONVECTIVE BLOWUP FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND KEEP FIRE DANGER
LOW. NORTH COASTAL AREAS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF FUEL IGNITION LOW IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 72 / 0 20 20 40
STT 84 73 84 73 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT MAR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING...REACHING
PUERTO RICO EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO ITS
CURRENT POSITION MONDAY AND PUSH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG JET WILL REMAIN OVER AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH WILL
THEN BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN A MUCH WEAKER CONDITION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AFTER 17/17Z BUT GROWTH THROUGH 19Z WAS STUNTED...REACHING ONLY
ABOUT 25 KFT. NEVERTHELESS AMOUNTS OF OVER ONE HALF INCH HAD BEEN
OBSERVED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR UP TO THAT TIME. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THROUGH SUNSET AND LINGER A FEW
HOURS BEYOND THAT IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A BOUNDARY TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA
AND BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN PATCHES OF
MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY GENERATOR OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SINCE MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY...SHOWERS
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SCATTERED...INFREQUENT
AND EXCEPT FOR THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST...FAIRLY
LIMITED IN AMOUNT OF RAIN THEY CAN PRODUCE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TENDENCY TO OVER-PREDICT THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEYOND DAY 5 AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE THAT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS
UNTIL AT LEAST 17/22Z. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FM
THE EAST AT 15 KTS OR LESS. JET MAX OF 100+ KTS WAS MEASURED AROUND
36 KFT BY THE TJSJ 17/12Z SOUNDING. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 18/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SLOWLY WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 18 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOME SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 81 / 20 30 20 30
STT 73 83 73 83 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Over 30,000 people saw the Hurricane Hunter plane in San Juan

I couldn't go but apparently it was a success because is the first time since the folks from the NHC and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters have comed to Puerto Rico that over 30,000 people go to the exhibition.Here is what occured in a translation to english from the newspaper El Nuevo Dia site.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 14946.html

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are th temps registered on March 16 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Near noraml in El Salvador and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize and Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.0°C (53.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.6°C (34.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.5°C (50.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.9°C (75.0°F) Warmest since August 6 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.8°C (40.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 25.6°C (78.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.5°C (77.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.6°C (60.1°F) Warmest since December 31 2011

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Belize Guatemala and Panama. Cooler than normal in Honduras. Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.7°C (101.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.9°C (51.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.1°C (95.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.8°C (67.6°F)

[msbee]

Over 30,000 people saw the Hurricane Hunter plane in San Juan

I couldn't go but apparently it was a success because is the first time since the folks from the NHC and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters have comed to Puerto Rico that over 30,000 people go to the exhibition.Here is what occured in a translation to english from the newspaper El Nuevo Dia site.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 14946.html

It was very successful here too Luis.
I couldn't go either but I am sorry I missed it.
A lot of people, including school groups, and even our Prime Minister visited.
Here are some news reports of their visit here, with some nice pictures.

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... bbean.html

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... -pjia.html

[cycloneye]

Over 30,000 people saw the Hurricane Hunter plane in San Juan

I couldn't go but apparently it was a success because is the first time since the folks from the NHC and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters have comed to Puerto Rico that over 30,000 people go to the exhibition.Here is what occured in a translation to english from the newspaper El Nuevo Dia site.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 14946.html

It was very successful here too Luis.
I couldn't go either but I am sorry I missed it.
A lot of people, including school groups, and even our Prime Minister visited.
Here are some news reports of their visit here, with some nice pictures.

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... bbean.html

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... -pjia.html

Very good success there as I see Barbara. Hopefully,we wont deal with any hurricanes in the Eastern Caribbean,but this visit by the crew of the C-130 Hurricane Hunter is a wakeup call for us that hurricane season is approaching and we must be prepared for anything that mother nature may bring.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN MAR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT STILL APPEARS THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT IN OCCASIONAL
BANDS AND PATCHES OR WHERE POOLED AT THE SURFACE BY SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAIRLY FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE FA AND A
STRONG JET REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT THE MOISTURE THAT IS
AVAILABLE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHINESS AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FOR A TIME...AS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...APPROACHES FROM
THE EAST AND THEN PASSES ACROSS THE FA. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS
BETWEEN 18/18Z AND 18/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE FM THE EAST AT 15
KTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 110+ KTS WERE MEASURED
AROUND 35 KFT BY THE TJSJ 18/00Z SOUNDING.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL OFF SHORE WATERS OF BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAINFALL
SHOULD HELP THE SITUATION AGAIN TODAY...THERE IS STILL A RISK OF
A COUPLE OF WILDFIRES OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY FROM YAUCO EAST THROUGH GUAYAMA...DUE TO
VERY DRY FUELS AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 72 / 30 20 30 30
STT 83 73 83 73 / 30 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

Over 30,000 people saw the Hurricane Hunter plane in San Juan

I couldn't go but apparently it was a success because is the first time since the folks from the NHC and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters have comed to Puerto Rico that over 30,000 people go to the exhibition.Here is what occured in a translation to english from the newspaper El Nuevo Dia site.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 14946.html

It was very successful here too Luis.
I couldn't go either but I am sorry I missed it.
A lot of people, including school groups, and even our Prime Minister visited.
Here are some news reports of their visit here, with some nice pictures.

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... bbean.html

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... -pjia.html

Hi my friends ! That's a very good thing. Glad to see that! Thanks for your reports that's pretty informative.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon.A trough nearby will cause moisture to increase mainly in the afternoon hours on interior and SW PR in the next couple of days and some scattered showers at night on the Eastern and Northern part of the island.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN MAR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST NORTHWESTWARD OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND A JET STREAM ALOFT WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DYNAMIC PRODUCED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A JET STREAM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. IN
FACT...ACCORDINGLY TO LATER TJSJ SOUNDINGS...PWAT VALUES ARE
SLIGHTLY INCREASING STEADILY AND GFS PWAT VALUES ALSO INDICATED
THE SAME TENDENCY. HOWEVER THESE VALUES OF PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ONLY FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. LIMITED SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPO SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TIST AND TISX DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...IN AND AROUND OF TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJMZ UNTIL
SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 83 / 20 30 30 40
STT 73 83 73 84 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE PREVAILING
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS AND GOOD VENTILATION
ALOFT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EACH DAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 1.0 INCH ON TUESDAY...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THESE VALUES OF PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO
RICO. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS XPCD TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES AND MOVE
GENERALLY ESE TOWARD THE CARIB COAST AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT JPS. FOR
NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND A PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 19-23Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND TSRA. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO SIG
WX. JMZ MAY SEE A VCSH WITH BKN CIGS AOB 030 BUT BELIEVE CHANCES TOO
SMALL TO MENTION IT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE WINDS AND MIN_RH MAY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AS OBSERVED IN THE CAMP
SANTIAGO RAWS YESTERDAY...THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS
TSTMS DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND NOON ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES AND MOVE
GENERALLY ESE AROUND 10 KNOTS GIVEN 0-6KM AGL MEAN FLOW. SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF PR-52 IN
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ AND SANTA ISABEL. AREAS SOUTH OF PR-52 MAY NOT
SEE MUCH RAIN BUT CONVECTIVE BLOWUP FROM TSTMS WILL TEMPER THE FIRE
RISK IN THAT AREA.

HOWEVER...AFTER TODAY THINGS DRY OUT RAPIDLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC. THIS WILL ACT TO SPEED UP THE DRYING OF FINE DEAD FUELS FROM
WHATEVER MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND OVR THE LAST SEVEN
DAYS. SO EXPECT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TUE-THU DUE TO INCREASING WINDS...LONG TERM DRYNESS AND VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NOTE THAT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
NOT BE CONFINED TO JUST SRN PR. NORTH COASTAL AREAS...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND ALL OF THE USVI HAVE BEEN VERY DRY OVR THE PAST TWO WEEKS
AND LATEST NDVI AND TRUE COLOR IMAGERY FROM NASA SATELLITES AND KBDI
VALUES INDICATE THAT FUELS ARE READY FOR FIRE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 73 / 30 0 0 30
STT 83 74 83 74 / 20 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon fellow NE Caribbean friernds. A lot of rain this afternoon is unfolding in interior and Southern parts of Puerto Rico that have prompted flood advisories being issued. Lingering troughs in the vicinity are the cause of the inestability and it will continue at least until Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENINGS...AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS MID/UPPER
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCED THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACTIVITY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN UNTIL 19/22Z IN AND AROUND TJPS
SHRA/TSRA. AFTER 19/22Z MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SJU 19/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 10K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 73 82 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 83 74 83 / 10 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Another round of flash flood advisories are expected on Tuesday for interior and Southern PR as the trough lingers causing plenty of rising motion with the diurnal heating.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST MON MAR 19 2012

.UPDATE...THE EXPLOSIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED ACROSS
THE WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO QUICKLY DIMINISHED
AFTER SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE EXPECT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AT LEAST TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL EFFECTS...LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATION AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. ACTIVITY
WILL HOWEVER BE LIMITED DUE TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
20/18Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS PSBL BTW
20/18Z-20/22Z IN AND AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SFC-050K FT WILL BE MAINLY FM NE AT 10 KTS OR LESS...THEN
BACKING W/HT BCMG WESTERLY ABV 15K FT...WITH A WND MAX OF AROUND
110 KTS NR 35K FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 0.43 INCHES WAS SET
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT IN ST THOMAS USVI TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE
OLD RECORD OF 0.39 SET IN 1961.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another afternoon of heavy downpours is expected in interior and Southern parts of PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST TUE MAR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA IS NOW UNDER CONFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN
A JET STREAK OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AND ANOTHER WEAKER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ROUNDING
THE BASE OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS.

AT LOW LEVELS...A WEAK 05-10KT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DIURNAL BREEZES TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1.0 INCH
TODAY...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE
VALUES OF PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOULD BE A LOT LESS CVRG TODAY THAN YDAY AS AREA
IS NOW UNDER UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING. STILL XPC SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES AND
MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD SW PR. PROB OF SHRA AT JPS DOES NOT WARRANT
MORE THAN A VCSH ATTM. ELSEWHERE...P6SM SKC OR P6SM FEW030 WITH
ONSHORE WINDS 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FELL YESTERDAY AT SALINAS
AND COAMO BUT LARGE RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN AT GUAYAMA AND
ARROYO. ALSO...NORTHWEST PR...THE NORTH COASTAL PLAIN FROM MANATI
EAST TO SAN JUAN AND ALL OF THE USVI HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN
THE PAST TWO WEEKS WHERE LATEST MODIS TRUE AND NDVI IMAGERY AND
KBDI ANALYSIS INDICATE FUELS ARE MORE THAN READY FOR FIRE. EAST
COASTAL AREAS FROM NAGUABO TO YABUCOA ARE ALSO DRYING OUT
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER IN THAT AREA AS WELL. EXPECT
INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY WED AS WINDS INCREASE AND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE. SFC WINDS 10-14 KT TODAY XCPT A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR
AGUADILLA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON WED ALMOST EVERYWHERE
14-18KT. A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 0 10 10 50
STT 81 72 81 72 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. As expected,another round of flash flooding is occuring in interior and Southern PR as the upper trough lingers nearby. By late Wednesday thru Thursday,a weak frontal boundary will arrive triggering more shower activity this time for northern PR.

Marcocane,did the 7.4 quake that was centered East of Acapulco was felt also on a less strong way in El Salvador?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST TUE MAR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY...THEREFORE ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE
THEY DISSIPATE.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE DYNAMIC PRODUCED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION AND A JET STREAM ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP INCREASE THE MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AND NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...RIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 20/22Z IN AND AROUND TJPS
AND TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TJSJ 20/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP
TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND UP TO 100 KNOTS ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...THEY WILL NOT PEAK UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 81 / 10 10 50 50
STT 72 81 72 81 / 10 10 30 30

[Macrocane]

We didn't feel the quake fortunately, although I've heard that it was felt in parts of Guatemala.

[cycloneye]

We didn't feel the quake fortunately, although I've heard that it was felt in parts of Guatemala.

That is good news from there. By the way,the quake was downgraded to 7.4. See thread at Geology forum.

[Macrocane]

Thanks for the info cycloneye.

The pattern has changed in Central America, te subtropical ridge weakened so did the trades, a trough over Mexico is enhancing southerly windflow over the region, the parts that were warmer than normal last week are trending cooler and the ones that were cooler are trending warmer. These are the observations for March 18 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal n Belize, Honduras and Panama. Near normal in El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Coole than normal in Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.6°C (38.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F) Warmest since February 13 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.5°C (47.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala. Near normal in El Salvador, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29.3°C (84.7°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 28 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.8°C (100.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.7°C (94.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.6°C (65.5°F)

[Macrocane]

These are the temperatures registered on March 19 2012.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala and El Salvador. Cooler than normal in Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.6°C (49.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F) Coldest since February 20 2011
Panama city, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador (finally) and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another round of flash flood advisories is expected for this afternoon in interior and southern PR. But adding to that will be moicture moving from the Atlantic towards northern PR late today,so it will be a rather wet day today and also tommorow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD SWD OVR THE
WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE...COMBINATION OF VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF...DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ARE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. AS WINDS
INCREASE TODAY EXPECT LESS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THUS SIG LESS
SHRA AND TSTM COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE ATLC WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRES GRADIENT WITH A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THU. THIS
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED ALSO WITH A SURGE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU. CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ANTICIPATED FOR THU WITH A SLOW DRYING
EXPECTED FRI FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STILL TO CROSS THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND EXPECT AT LEAST SCT
SHRA AND TSTMS FRI-SAT.

UPPER CONFLUENCE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILD IN LATE SUN-SUN
NIGHT FOR A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION. NEXT SIG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THIS FEATURE IS
FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVR THE WEEKEND AND BREAK DOWN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND INDUCE
STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NW ATLC WITH A SHEARLINE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUE AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA
BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURG
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TJPS AND TJMZ AFTER 21/16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
WILL EVALUATE GUIDANCE SOON AND ISSUE ANY SCA`S AS NECESSARY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER THREAT STILL THERE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST...USVI AND GUAYAMA AND ARROYO WHERE
GREATEST RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE. FUELS ARE MORE THAN READY FOR
FIRE IN THESE AREAS PER LATEST KBDI ANALYSIS AND MODIS IMAGERY.
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE AND WINDS PICK UP TODAY
CREATING SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THINGS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TONIGHT AND THU WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 74 82 74 / 20 60 60 70
STT 82 73 82 73 / 20 50 50 40