Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It looks like the next few days will be with scattered showers in Puerto Rico / USVI,BVI and Northern Leewards as the trough lingers in the area and moisture is plenty.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING HAS
PROVOKED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS INCREASING AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO AROUND
1.6 INCHES ON THURSDAY AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AS WELL WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN GIVE US AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS.



&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ESPECIALLY ACROSS
TJPS AND TJMZ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS WIND WILL
ALSO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 PM
THIS EVENING AND THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS HAVE PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 18 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 73 81 / 60 60 70 70
STT 73 82 73 82 / 50 50 40 40

[Macrocane]

These are te temperatures registered in Central America yesterday:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Honduras and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.3°C (45.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.1°C (53.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F) Warmest since January 1 2012
Choluteca, Honduras 20°C (68°F) Coolest since November 9 2011
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.2°C (55.8°F) Coldest since February 19

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Honduras and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.6°C (63.7°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 14 2010
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.3°C (82.9°F) Coolest since February 18 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.5°C (97.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)

[Macrocane]

7 earthquakes have been felt in El Salvador today, they have been low in magnitude but people are kind of worried. No damages have been reported. More info in my last 2 posts of this thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2217408#p2217408

[cycloneye]

A wet next couple of days are instored for Puerto Rico/VI and Norhern Leewards.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
916 PM AST WED MAR 21 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST 22/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING CAME WITH PW VALUES OF
1.59...WHICH COINCIDE WITH WHAT COMPUTER MODELS WERE
INDICATING...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING TONIGHT. DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR AND SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS NICELY THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH ALL THE GREATER ANTILLES.
GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WET SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AN OLD AND DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH 22/21Z AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS
WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT. LLVL WINDS ARE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KT BELOW
10 KFT. WEST WINDS UP TO 80 KNOTS CONT NEAR 40 KFT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wet,wet,wet is the only word to describe what todays weather will be like in Puerto Rico/USVI.BVI and Northern Leewards.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST THU MAR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SWD OVR THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ACARS PLOT INDICATE
THAT THE TWO SEPARATE JET STREAKS THAT WERE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTH OF PR EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAVE MERGED INTO ONE SINGLE
JET STREAK PER SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
RECENTLY AND ACARS PLOT SHOWING THE CORE OF A 90-KT JET STREAK NOW
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS BUT IT IS THE S/W TROUGH
OVR ERN CUBA CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD NEXT 24 HRS AND ENHANCE CHANCES OF SIG RAINFALL TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO BECOME UNDER THE DIVERGENT SIDE
OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90KT JET STREAK LOCATED SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST PR TODAY. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST PR AS PW VALUES
RISE TO NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND K INDICES
RISE TO 30 AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE. NORTHEAST PR IS AN AREA TO CLOSELY
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AS AREA RIVERS ARE SHORT IN
LENGTH AND VERY FLASHY.

SLIGHT DRYING WILL COMMENCE ON FRI AS JET STREAK DEPARTS AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ADVECTING LOWER PW VALUES
BUT WITH ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY STILL TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
ASSOCIATED TO CUTOFF LOW UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SUN WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE
WEATHER EXPECTED.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF LOW OVR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND INDUCE STRONG SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE TIDEWATER AREA OF VIRGINIA ON SUN. AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NW ATLC LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AND BRING A SHEARLINE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE WITH CDFNT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON THU. THIS LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE STORM TO
POTENTIALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS THIS LOW
GETTING CUTOFF AS IT GETS BLOCKED BY CNTRL ATLC BLOCKING RIDGE. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SFC RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING ACTUAL CDFNT/DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY THROUGH
OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP NORTHERLIES WITH A REFRESHINGLY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. LLVL
WINDS ARE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS TODAY AS 20-KT WINDS GENERATE 5-7 FOOT SEAS.
WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR MASS KEEP RISK OF FUEL
IGNITION LOW. A CDFNT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA NEXT THU
WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR MASS BUILDING BEHIND IT. HOPEFULLY...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SUFFICIENT RAINS OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS TO MITIGATE
ANY POTENTIAL THREATS LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.42 INCHES WAS SET AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/USVI YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD
OF 0.25 SET IN 2001. NEW DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE
SET AT SJU LMM INTL AIRPORT LATER TODAY AS SIG RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 73 82 73 / 70 70 70 30
STT 82 74 82 74 / 70 70 70 30

[cycloneye]

As advertised,copious amounts of rain has fallen since early this morning and continue thru almost all of Puerto Rico and VI. I am posting the flood advisories at the thread for that.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=112426&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU MAR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA INCLUDING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT MOSTLY FOR THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WITH SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THEN DECREASE ON
SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS HELPED CAUSE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD GIVE US MORNING SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WEST...AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TJSJ. LLVL WINDS
ARE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS WINDS MAY REACH 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 21
KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 70 70 30 30
STT 74 82 74 82 / 70 70 30 30

[Macrocane]

These are the temperatures in Central America for March 21 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.6°C (47.5°F) Warmest since February 8 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (51.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.2°C (57.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.3°C (97.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.6°C (92.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

[cycloneye]

The only news that occured on Thursday with the rain that fell was a bridge that collapsed,but no injuries occured.

Information translated to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 28335.html

[cycloneye]

More rain is expected in the overnight hours going thru Friday,so more flood advisories for sure will pop up,but hopefully nothing bad in terms of flooding nor mudslides occur.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST THU MAR 22 2012

.UPDATE...SATTELITE DERIVED PW IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THIS
AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS AND NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST CHARTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. MADE CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS
TO ACCOMMODATED FORECAST WITH ONGOING SITUATION.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected for today as the trough lingers nearby.I will keep you informed about any flooding news that may occur as grounds are saturated from the previous days of rains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST FRI MAR 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THOSE SECTOR DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS SHOWERY WEATHER IS THE RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN COMBINATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE AGAIN A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DISSIPATES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE SINKING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN CIG/VSBY AT LEAST
TIL 23/14Z. IN ADDITION...MTN OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND RAGGED
LOW CLDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...
WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS AT TJSJ...TJNR...TIST... TNCM AND TKPK AT LEAST
TIL 23/14Z. LLVL WINDS ARE EASTERLY BLO 10K FT...BCMG WESTERLY AND
INCR W/HT ABV 15K FT. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KNOTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED
BTWN 35-45K FT TODAY.SFC WND GUST BTW 20-25 KTS PSBL W/PASSING
SHRA/TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MINIMIZING THE
FIRE THREATS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 60 50 60 30

[cycloneye]

Soufriere Hills Volcano turns very active,go to Geology forum for information

This post is to let know the folks who live close to Montserrat where the Soufriere Hills volcano is (Guadeloupe,Dominica,St Maarten,Nevis,St Barts) to be on alert to a big eruption that can occur as the volcano has increased it's activity on this Friday. It may not occur that a big eruption like the Febuary 11, 2010 happens,but you never know. Go to the thread at Geology forum to get all the latest information.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107244&p=2217519#p2217519

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A little bit more rain is expected tonight and on Saturday as the trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST FRI MAR 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...WITH A SERIES OF
ASSOCIATED PASSING PERTURBATIONS...WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOCATED
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALL IN ALL...EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...WITH A SERIES OF
PASSING PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE FA...REMAINS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
AT THE SAME TIME...REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A VERY OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND THESE
TWO FACTORS IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL EFFECTS...
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE AFTERNOON
RAINFALL OCCURRED. ALSO...SMALL ASH AND GAS EMISSIONS CONTINUE
FROM THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ON MONTSERRAT...BUT MOST WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 81 72 82 / 60 60 30 30
STT 73 83 73 84 / 60 60 40 40

[Macrocane]

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Guatemala. Near normal in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F) Warmest since February 17
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.2°C (48.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.8°C (40.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.5°C (95.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.0°C (68.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected for today as the trough nearby lingers. Get all the latest information about what is going on with the Soufriere Volcano at the thread on the Geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107244&p=2217519#p2217519


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST SAT MAR 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WET
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTED ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THOSE SECTOR DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOWERY WEATHER IS THE RESULT OF THE
INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN
THE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THESE VALUES OF
PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE AGAIN A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF
SHOWERS AND THE VERY COOL AIR ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE VI AT LEAST TIL
24/14Z. THEREFORE TEMPO MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT...TJSJ...
TJNR...TNCM AND TKPK DURG THAT TIME. MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS IN PASSING
SHRA/LOW CLDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
OVER PICO DEL ESTE...EL YUNQUE...DURG THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. LLVL WNDS FM ENE 10-15 KTS BLO 8K FT BCMG WESTERLY ABV
15K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 82 73 / 60 50 70 50
STT 83 73 84 74 / 60 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. No big change to the rather wet pattern for Puerto Rico / USVI and BVI for the next couple of days. The latest update on the Soufriere Volcano is posted at the thread at Geology forum.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT MAR 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A SERIES OF
ASSOCIATED PASSING PERTURBATIONS...WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOCATED
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF
RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...WITH A SERIES OF PASSING PERTURBATIONS
MOVING ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE FA...REMAINS LOCATED IN A MOSTLY
FAVORABLE POSITION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME
TIME...REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A VERY OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND THESE TWO FACTORS IN
COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL EFFECTS...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAUSING PERIODS OF TSRA ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
24/22Z. THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EASTERN PR AS WELL AS THE USVI AT LEAST TIL 25/14Z. MTN
TOP OBSCURATIONS IN PASSING SHRA/LOW CLDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN PR. ALSO...SMALL ASH AND GAS
EMISSIONS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ON
MONTSERRAT...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 73 83 / 60 70 50 40
STT 73 84 74 83 / 60 60 50 50

[Macrocane]

Hello, I hope that those ashes doesn't cause any major problems.

These are the temps registered on March 23 2012 in Central America.

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and El Salvador. Near normal in Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.1°C (37.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F) Warmest since August 23 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.6°C (49.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.4°C (93.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.8°C (85.6°F) Coolest since December 19 2011
Boquete, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)

[cycloneye]

The persistance of the rain at this time of the year when it is suppose to by dry as Febuary and March are the most driest months of the year is very amazing. But hopefully,no big flooding events occur while this pattern lasts.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
901 PM AST SAT MAR 24 2012

.UPDATE...A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAS BEEN MAKING SLOW
PASSAGE DUE WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM FAJARDO TO FLORIDA AND
ARECIBO. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN CLOSE BY OVER SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT CROIX. THE 25/00Z SOUNDING REVEALED A WHOPPING 1.9 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TOPS HAVE REACHED 38 KFT NORTH OF TOA BAJA WITH
LIGHTNING REPORTED. THE HIGHEST TOPS ARE GENERALLY OFFSHORE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN
AND MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD PUERTO RICO. THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE
HAVE BEEN MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND
HAVE KEPT ACTIVITY WELL POWERED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
FOR ALMOST A WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD HALF OF
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND TOMORROW NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. LONGER
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK...AND WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
GRADIENTS RELAX CONSIDERABLY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE...BUT UP TO NOW
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN JUST SHY OF THE NECESSARY AMOUNT TO MAKE THEM
OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. SHOULD RAINFALL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED...SATURATED SOILS WILL BEAR MOST OF THIS
WATER QUICKLY INTO LOCAL STREAMS AND SOME RIVER RISES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY...AT THIS TIME SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING FROM
THE EAST AND THIS HAS GIVEN RIVERS FLOWING ONTO THE EAST COAST
SUCH AS THE FAJARDO RIVER A CHANCE TO RECEDE.

.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST TO MENTION SHRA AND FOR MVFR CIGS. SOME GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS MAY ACCOMPANY THOSE SHWRS. MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS IN
PASSING SHRA/LOW CLDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN PR. LLVL WINDS ARE MAINLY EASTERLY UP TO 10 KFT AND
STRONGER WESTERLY ABV 20 KFT. TJSJ EVENING SOUNDING MEASURED WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS AROUND 35 KFT

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected today as the trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENS TODAY...INDUCING A MORE
EASTERLY OR EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THOSE SECTOR DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOWERY
WEATHER IS THE RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND A
SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION...BUT DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
DAY OR TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF
1.50-1.75 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT...DECREASING SLIGHTLY
AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THESE VALUES OF PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE AGAIN A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE STORMS...
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLDS MAINLY
BTW 020-090K FT...AND TSTMS WITH MAX TOPS NEAR 35K FT. AT LEAST TIL
25/14Z EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CIG/VSBY DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AND
AROUND...TJNR...TJSJ...TJBQ...TISX AND TIST. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHRA/TSRA. MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS IN RA AND
LOW FRACTUS CLDS LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PR. LLVL WND
MAINLY FM EAST UP TO NR 10K FT...BCMG WESTERLY AND INCR W/HT ABV 20K
FT. ONGOING GAS AND OCNL LGT VA EMISSIONS CONTINUED FROM THE
SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ON MONTSERRAT...HOWEVER VA NOT DISCERNIBLE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUDY CONDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 72 / 70 50 50 10
STT 84 74 83 74 / 70 50 50 10

[cycloneye]

More rain,rain,rain for tonight and next few days for PR and we are supposed to be in the dry period.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 PM AST SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH BRIEF
SHORT WAVE RIDGING DURING MONDAY. ADDITIONAL TROUGHINESS WILL
BECOME LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE NEAR THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAD A RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AGAIN LOCALLY...WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS. RECEIVED SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLOODING OF URBAN AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND SOME
STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS REMAIN NEAR BANKFULL. EXPECT LINGERING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. IN GENERAL...DESPITE
AFOREMENTIONED BRIEF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY...STILL
EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE ONGOING RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN
LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR LINGERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...COMBINES WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND CONTINUES TO BE VENTILATED BY BASE OF
WESTERLIES. THUS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
MONDAY...WITH MORE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALL IN ALL...
EXPECT INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. IN
ADDITION...WILL BE WATCHING WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSSIBLY MOVING NEAR THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL AT
LEAST 25/23Z AT TJMZ...TJBQ...AND POSSIBLY TJSJ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER WINDS CLOSE TO THE SHRA/TSRA. THE USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 26/00Z
WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE DAILY RAINFALL FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 345 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SAN JUAN LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 3.09
INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MARCH
25TH OF 1.75 INCHES SET IN 1956. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MONTHLY
TOTAL OF 6.30 INCHES HAS BROKEN THE OLD MARCH MONTHLY RECORD OF
5.41 INCHES SET IN 1958.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 83 / 50 50 20 20
STT 74 83 74 84 / 50 50 40 40