MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149...
   
   VALID 042334Z - 050030Z
   
   ...ISOLD SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF FRESNO/HANFORD THROUGH
   02Z...
   
   LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS CNTRL CA...WHERE WIND
   FIELDS REMAIN EXTREMELY STRONG AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. STORMS
   HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE AT LEAST MINUS 20
   CELSIUS OR BELOW AND THIS IS PROMOTING STEEP LAPSE RATES. SEVERE
   THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND THE EXPIRATION OF WW 149 AND THE
   WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. SVR THREAT WILL MAINLY EXIST
   FOR LARGE HAIL. WINDS VEER TO WLY BEHIND CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH
   EXTENDS FROM NE OF FAT TO HJO...SO PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
   OVER PARTS OF MADERA/FRESNO/TULARE COUNTIES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   35571825 35601901 36872002 37882038 38551976 38421872
   36941704 36141715

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT WED APR 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT/WRN CO AND SW WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051653Z - 051900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS WRN CO...ERN UT AND SWRN WY. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
   HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW WILL LIKELY
   BECOME NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE WEST COAST
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A DRY SLOT AND BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT DRIFTING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. A LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP ACROSS ERN UT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
   70 F AND ASCENT INCREASES IN THE NOSE OF A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW VERY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING
   SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SFC
   TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL EXCEED 30 DEGREES F ENHANCING THE
   WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...PIH...
   
   36770798 36740897 37400978 38851007 40951077 41831106
   42231108 42741046 42950907 42490809 41200763 40080736
   38740711 38670697 37530713 37060743

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 PM CDT WED APR 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052159Z - 052330Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE S OF LND AND SW COD WITH
   ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MT AND THEN
   INTO CNTRL SD. TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED SWD FROM THESE LOW
   PRESSURE CENTERS INTO WRN CO.  WELL-DEFINED RISE-FALL COUPLET FROM
   N-CNTRL WY INTO ERN UT SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO SRN MT THIS EVENING.
   
   MODIFICATION OF 18Z RIW SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   ACROSS N-CNTRL WY INDICATES STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH DCAPES OF 1000-1300 J/KG...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   MOREOVER...40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A THREAT OF
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   STRENGTHENING UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN WY INTO S-CNTRL AND
   SERN MT.  PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL SUFFICIENTLY OFFSET A COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AFTER
   23-00Z...SUSTAINING A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   43190960 44161028 45750960 46490779 46300568 44980442
   43590459 42890561 42560709

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT WED APR 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WY / ERN UT / WRN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...
   
   VALID 052241Z - 052345Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND
   23Z...HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF 2225Z FROM N-CNTRL NM NWD
   THROUGH PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL CO INTO WRN AND CNTRL WY WITHIN
   ZONE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
   LOW EVOLVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED
   SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.  HOWEVER...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
   AND PRECIPITATION HAVE RESULTED IN COOLING OF PRE-FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL CO WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY
   LIMITING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
   
   THROUGH 23-01Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN
   PORTIONS OF WW AREA INTO N-CNTRL WY/S-CNTRL AND SERN MT WHERE
   INTENSIFYING LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH A ZONE
   OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.  ELSEWHERE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT MAY EXIST BEYOND 23Z...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE
   TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS THREAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT THE
   ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...PIH...
   
   43521113 43560949 42540830 42470568 36600617 36741098

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 PM CDT WED APR 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO NWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 060336Z - 060500Z
   
   ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
   STORMS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   AS OF 0320Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF
   ELEVATED STORMS FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY NWWD INTO CALLAWAY COUNTY MO
   WITH NICKEL TO GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED.  ANOTHER
   CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS PERSISTED FROM NEAR CID SEWD TO E OF
   UIN.  FINALLY...IR SATELLITE DATA SHOW A BAND OF CLOUD ENHANCEMENT
   FROM THE ONGOING...E-CNTRL MO ACTIVITY NWWD TO NEAR OMA.
   
   REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
   THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG AN INTENSIFYING SLY/SWLY LLJ
   ON THE ERN OR NERN EDGE OF CAP WHICH IS IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL
   PLAINS /PER 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS/.  HERE...INCREASING MOISTURE
   IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   RESULTING IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH
   MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT OWING TO
   FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LLJ AND RESULTANT FORCING VIA WAA AND
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH
   THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   38479132 38539224 40279512 41519592 41969536 42129316
   41839182 40539070 39079055 38699088

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN SD AND EXTREME NRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 060620Z - 060745Z
   
   TSTMS OVER SWRN SD WILL LIKELY EXPAND ESEWD INTO EXTREME NRN NEB AND
   ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SRN/CNTRL SD EARLY THIS MORNING.  STRONGER
   STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
   BE REQUIRED.
   
   H5 JET OF 70+ KTS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WY UPPER LOW WAS NOSING
   NWD INTO WRN NEB...PLACING A STRONG DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  CORRESPONDING
   SLY LLJ OF AROUND 50 KTS WAS IMPINGING ON AN E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
   ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NE/SD BORDER. RESULTING DEEP UVV WAS
   ALREADY SUPPORTING TSTMS ACROSS SWRN SD.
   
   PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG/N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO EXTREME NRN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN SD THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THOUGH EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 35
   KTS...LAPSE RATES WERE QUITE STEEP.  THUS...AS TSTMS
   DEVELOP...UPDRAFTS WILL BE STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION QUITE
   LIKELY.  AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE...COMPETITION OF UPDRAFTS
   MAY TEND TO TEMPER THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE MORNING.
   BUT...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   44870270 44689987 44379712 44039719 42089784 42319911
   43020306

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 061101Z - 061300Z
   
   AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE TOP/OAX/EAX WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...
   THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO UPGRADE SERN NEB...NERN
   KS AND NWRN MO TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AT 13Z.
   
   H5 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 210 METERS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN
   ALONG THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL KS AS
   INHIBITION IS ERODED.  STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
   SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /H5 FLOW OF 105 KTS
   OVER OKLA...WITH AOA 60 KTS INTO ERN KS/.
   
   THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING
   BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
   EVOLVE INTO A MIXED MODE OF LEWPS/BOWS WITH TIME.
   NONETHELESS...BACKED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E/NE OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
   FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AS THE STORMS
   MOVE ENEWD AT 30-40 KTS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NWRN MO. VERY
   LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.
   
   ..RACY/EVANS.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   38339578 39589716 40779702 40919601 40319468 39399408
   38529421 38249500

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/SW MO/WRN AR/ERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061603Z - 061800Z
   
   ...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTN FROM ECNTRL
   OK SWD TO PARTS OF ERN TX...AND EWD INTO AR...
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ECNTRL OK...WITH LATEST
   TULSA OK RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING INTENSE MID LEVEL CORES. LATEST WV
   IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL KS/OK...AND
   THIS IS LIKELY AGITATING THE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM
   NORMAN OK SHOWED AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
   CAPE EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SPRINGFIELD MO SOUNDING. SPECIAL 15Z
   SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SUGGESTS STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 700MB.
   STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   /AROUND 40 KT/ AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   33039395 30769505 30649667 33689707 36159641 37239475
   37299338 36099266 33919325

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/ERN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN IL/FAR SWRN
   IND/FAR WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061619Z - 061715Z
   
   ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
   SERN IA SEWD THROUGH ERN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN IL INTO FAR SWRN IND
   AND FAR WRN KY.
   
   LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LOCATED
   OVER ERN NEB...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SWRN IA/NRN
   TO ERN MO AROUND STL..AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO FAR SRN IND.
   A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM CENTRAL MO /BOONE COUNTY/ INTO
   NRN AR.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED
   OVER CENTRAL KS/OK WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS TO THE
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THIS MID
   LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS TODAY.
   
   SPECIAL 15Z SOUNDING AT SGF CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT OVER MO...BUT THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED. 15Z RUC
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SUGGEST STORMS ARE ROOTED
   AROUND 850 MB WITH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED ROTATING
   STORMS.  WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER
   CORES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATED A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   HAIL...LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS AT TIMES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   40639240 41659279 41989165 41799039 40608889 39848761
   38408698 36838743 36628864 36728976 37889107 39269164

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061712Z - 061915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB
   SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   APPEAR LIKELY INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. THREATS WILL
   INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
   OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN E CNTRL
   NEB SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS THEN SWD AS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
   THROUGH WRN OK AND THE ERN PORTION OF WRN TX. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
   LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET ADVANCING ENEWD THROUGH
   WRN KS AND WRN NEB. ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER N CNTRL KS
   THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS
   ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SWRN KS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER NEB SHOULD BECOME MORE ELY WITH SOME WWD
   RETREAT OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING...ASCENT...AND EWD ADVANCE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM CNTRL
   THROUGH ERN NEB SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS ARE PROBABLY INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING
   EDGE OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE AND HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD EWD...STORMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF FRONT/DRYLINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWD
   THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. DEEP LAYER AND LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER JET ADVANCES EWD
   AND AS SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS
   KS/ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   41229639 39119663 37159726 37339891 39319945 40499975
   42000019 42469914 42259744

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH PARTS OF NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061751Z - 061945Z
   
   N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SSWWD
   THROUGH WRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX NWD THROUGH W CNTRL
   OK AND INTERSECTS THE FRONT IN S CNTRL KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
   AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW AN AXIS OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG ACROSS W CNTRL OK IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE. PRESSURE FALLS
   INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD
   ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN AND W CNTRL KS.
   THIS ZONE OF FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD WITH SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL KS NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW
   DEEPENS...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AND THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL
   SHARPEN. THE INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF
   CNTRL OK AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY
   LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING OVER W CNTRL OK JUST W OF OKC.
   STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   35099786 35689789 36379788 36949788 36849577 35919599
   35119696

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK THROUGH SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 061815Z - 061945Z
   
   ...DRYLINE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SW OK
   THROUGH TX...
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BLOWING DUST WEST OF THE
   DRYLINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS EAST. EARLY THIS AFTN...THE
   DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF HBR/FDR/SNK/FST. UPPER/MID LEVEL
   CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON WV LOOPS NOW APPROACHING TX PANHANDLE.
   ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF
   THE AREA...STRONG SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ASCENT FOCUSED
   ON THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS THIS
   AFTN. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS...IF AND WHEN DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   34709755 32949716 31199785 30259964 30960080 31370067
   32439994 32849982 34149889 34429876 34869833

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SD/WRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061902Z - 062100Z
   
   ...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   DAKOTA NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...
   
   MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 850 MB REVEALS BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
   NRN NEB/SRN SD...AND THIS IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   THIS AFTN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST SFC
   OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL. IN ADDITION...TRAINING CELLS WILL ALSO POSE A HEAVY RAIN
   THREAT AS WELL. STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD EWD INTO WRN
   PORTIONS OF MN LATER THIS AFTN DUE TO INCREASING WAA.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   43819657 43770137 44310263 45640292 46249941 45899568
   44269571

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 154...
   
   VALID 062024Z - 062230Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARD
   EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP INTO NERN NEB AND WRN IA AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
   THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
   FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
   JET OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED OVER
   CNTRL KS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE...AND LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO UNDERWAY OVER N CNTRL
   KS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
   SHORT TERM HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
   RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER-TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS.
   HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN KS
   INTO SERN NEB...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SOME DECREASE IN
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO OCCUR TOWARD EVENING AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH ERN AND NERN NEB AS
   WELL AS WRN IA TOWARD EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD.
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES WITH LARGE
   HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
   
   41939463 41409479 41239539 41629610 41739734 41809878
   42329901 42829747 42609539

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO/NCNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...
   
   VALID 062029Z - 062200Z
   
   THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS WW 153 IS NOW EAST OF A RUE/BPK LINE.
   ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR...WITH THE
   MOST INTENSE STORM NOW PASSING SE OF FLP. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...AS STORMS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SFC
   BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL OK. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NW
   AR/SW MO HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED DUE TO ELEVATED STORMS
   WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER AND DESTABILIZATION WILL NEED TO OCCUR.
   SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOWS MID LEVEL WARMING HAS
   OCCURRED ROUGHLY IN THE 600-700MB LAYER. MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-2000
   J/KG WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL OK. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
   STEEP...AND WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS.
   
   TO EXPRESS THIS INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NE OK/NW AR...THE
   HIGH RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS AREA AS OF 20Z.
   
   FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 153 HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
   TSTMS IS DIMINISHING...AND THE WATCH WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
   AT 23Z. A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN A FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY
   INCLUDING ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 155 AND POINTS FARTHER EAST.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...
   
   35479151 35079341 35809321 37319268 37639151 37169144
   35999136

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0421 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...
   
   VALID 062121Z - 062245Z
   
   ...WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN
   AR...
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING MOVING INTO SEBASTIAN CO ARE SFC BASED...AND WILL
   HAVE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS/TORNADOES. THUS...A
   TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AR AND MO SOON.
   
   FARTHER WEST...TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SUPERCELL ACROSS OSAGE
   CO AND VAD WIND DATA FROM TULSA CONTINUES TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   34149385 34419573 35529671 36869665 37109581 37019491
   36399162 34609218

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 062153Z - 062330Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 154 BY 23Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
   BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 21Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
   OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGING ENEWD THROUGH
   S-CNTRL INTO ERN KS.  INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
   OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT JET STREAK ARE
   CONTRIBUTING INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM MARION
   COUNTY KS SEWD INTO OSAGE COUNTY OK.
   
   STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND MODEST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON E OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPES OF
   1000-2000 J/KG.  REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE DESCENDING MID
   AND HIGH-LEVEL JET ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 55-65 KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  MOREOVER...TRENDS IN NEODESHA KS PROFILER SHOW
   THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
   THIS EVENING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   39979556 40569467 40589317 39699257 37519211 36699275
   36509328 36539433 36669483

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
   
   VALID 070007Z - 070130Z
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
   LUD/SEP/DRT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SVR TSTM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
   BURNET COUNTY...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL CORE AND WITHIN A STRONGLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD
   EXTENDING SWD TO DRT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOWS MLCAPE RANGING
   FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN AIRMASS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
   60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONGEST FORCING IS FOCUSED
   FARTHER NORTH...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD.
   HOWEVER...ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
   WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   30199683 30379848 31379861 33979708 33789457 30709622

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA / NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 070012Z - 070115Z
   
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 154 PRIOR 01-02Z.  A NEW WW
   WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 2355Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD TSTMS
   ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...TO THE E OF OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
   OVER CNTRL NEB.  WITHIN THIS BROADER CONVECTIVE SHIELD...A MESOSCALE
   CIRCULATION WAS OBSERVED LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
   SEWARD...LANCASTER...SALINE...JEFFERSON AND GAGE COUNTIES.  OMA AND
   TOP RADAR DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SMALLER-SCALE SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITHIN N-S BAND ALONG ERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION AS FAR
   S AS NEMAHA AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES IN NERN KS.
   
   PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN DIFLUENT REGION OF
   UPPER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO
   WRN IA/NWRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE LARGELY MERIDIONAL MID
   AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BACKED SURFACE WINDS E/SE OF THE
   SURFACE LOW ARE RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH AN ANTICIPATED CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE
   HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   
   42119626 42249580 42129513 41199411 39519384 39119413
   38949469 39219512

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...157...
   
   VALID 070053Z - 070230Z
   
   ...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WITH DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN OK....
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELL TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
   FAR SE KS TO SE OK. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   STORM ROTATION...WITH 0-1 SRH NEAR 400 M2/S2. HASKELL OK PROFILER
   AND VAD DATA FROM BOTH TULSA AND FORT SMITH SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE
   DIRECTION/SPEED SHEAR WITH 50 KT OBSERVED NEAR 1 KM. LAMONT AND
   PURCELL PROFILER DATA ALSO SHOW 100KT DOWN TO 3KM...INDICATING THE
   EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING JET STREAK.
   SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED BRIEF
   TORNADOES...INCLUDING A RECENT REPORT OF A TORNADO WEST OF EUFAULA
   DAM IN HASKELL CO JUST BEFORE 730PM. STORM SIGNATURES DO INDICATE
   THAT STORMS ARE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTREME SHEAR.
   
   HOWEVER...THE STORMS /BY MAINTAINING SOME SPACE BETWEEN CELLS/ ARE
   NOT DESTRUCTIVELY INTERFERING...WHICH DOES INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR TORNADOES. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL
   AR. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ACROSS NW AR...BUT MOISTURE IS
   RAPIDLY RETURNING IN A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FASHION. STRENGTH OF SHEAR
   SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF WW 157 /INTO NRN
   AND WRN AR/ THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33789476 33839619 35609549 36979517 36929403 35429388
   34569387