Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Don't look now, the 18z GFS is even MORE bullish!

Wow

[TheStormExpert]

Told you not to look.

Anyways, despite the teleconnections being anything but favorable to support such cold, could this really happen with a -PNA, +NAO, and +AO?

[NDG]

GFS MOS guidance not biting on the raw GFS numbers for next week for my area. MOS showing highs in the upper 60s and lows in upper 40s/low 50s for Wednesday and Thursday.

[psyclone]

that seems like the most reasonable outcome. 3 days of what would have been normal in January. Cool, about 5 to 7 degrees below normal. It is going to feel terrific with the dry, cooler air offset by a strengthening sun.

[northjaxpro]

We will get a re-inforcing shot of cool air by the middle of next week , which will keep us cooler than the normal for mid-March. Looks as if the Easterm CONUS we be locked in with a period of significantly below normal temps finally for a change. An impressive long wave upper level trough will amplify significantly by mid-week. Cooler temps on the way for the peninsula for next week.

The latest 6Z GFS is suggesting temps approaching the freeze mark in the Tallahassee area and interior areas around the Suwannee River Valley.by Thursday morning. But, of course the GFS has been way too cold biased all season long. So I would definitely not trust that completely that is for sure.

I think mid to upper 30s are more reasonable expectations in those areas, with upper 30s here In interior Jax by Thursday.morning. Well, at least we will get some type of semblence of cool weather. Better late than never I guess.

[gatorcane]

Latest 12Z GFS run remains bullish with 30s well down into the peninsula of Florida:

[psyclone]

Nobody believes the GFS. I do have mid 60's over mid 40's in my forecast now. Giddyup.

[northjaxpro]

Well, as is usually the case in cold weather events in our neck of the woods, much will depend on how close the polar HP axis will get to the region by Thursday and Friday morning of this coming week. This will be very vital in that the closer the axis gets, the wind will lay down, which could allow for markedly better radiational cooling for Thursday and Friday mornings. This could bring a late season light freeze to areas of North Florida late next week.

As for right now, model guidance is depicting Wednesday morning will be an advective cooling event with wind as the polar HP builds southeast into the region from the Central Plains. We should see good, breezy north-northwest winds early Wednesday with some very decent wind chill values across the northern peninsula. I am sticking with my instincts and think the GFS showing temps near freezing on Wednesday morning across portions of the Big Bend and Suwanee River Valley region is a bit too cold biased for this particular time. But, I think temps in mid -upper 30s will be more the rule . I will monitor this closely as the event gets closer by Wednesday. The model keeps trending colder though, even with this morning's 6Z run. The pattern set-up for this coming week is very impressive for cold air advection nonetheless, with Polar HP building southeast into the Deep South and deepening nor'easter off the NE U.S. Coast, advecting in a much colder, drier northwestly flow into the peninsula.

However, if the HP axis gets close enough to the peninsula, temps very well could get to the freeze mark in many spots across the panhandle and interior North Florida on both Thursday and Friday mornings. Also, if HP gets close enough, frost looks like a possibility late next week as well across the northern peninsula. Central Florida looks to have minimum temps well down into the lower to mid 40s next week. I would also be inclined to think that temps may drop into the mid-upper 30s by Friday morning in the colder locales across the Nature Coast like Brooksville for example. Interior areas of South Florida may see lows in the mid-upper 40s by late week as well.

A remarkable major, late season winter storm will organize beginning late Monday and intensify off the Northeast U.S. coast beginning Tuesday, and combined with an amplifying upper level trough across the Eastern CONUS, it is amazing how Mother Nature can turn the page on the pattern. This week's pattern will be more like you would expect to have in December and January. The effects of the La Nina really caused many of us this past meteorological winter to not have any type of extended period of cool weather like we will have this coming week. So, beginning Monday, we will have below normal temps this upcoming week, as much as 15 degrees below normal averages for mid-March for some of us across the peninsula. This will be the case at least until next Saturday, when the upper trough axis finally will lift away from the region, and another cold front is forecast to come into the Southeast U.S. by next weekend.

[NDG]

Though this upcoming chilly weather during mid to late next week might be a shock to many after such a warm winter and only a week away from the official start to Spring, just last year we also had a late season shot of cold air, right on the start of spring, with central FL reporting highs only the mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, with areas near the Nature coast near freezing, but it was a quicker moving cold air mass than the one coming down.
Higher sun angle, equivalent to a late September day sun angle, will make it feel not as cold during the day.

[psyclone]

I distinctly recall a tax day (4-15) several years ago that featured cobalt blue skies with wall to wall sun and highs near 65. Potent cold fronts are fairly common in March and sometimes happen in April. These events chill the shelf waters and give us a Summer heat deferment in my neck of the woods so I cheer them on. This set up would have given us a big time freeze in mid winter so once again we escaped a potential whopper.

[gatorcane]

GFS sticking to its guns. May have to give kudos to the GFS for showing this so far many days ago:

[AdamFirst]

Better late than never, I guess. Any extended shot of cooler weather down here is always welcome.

[psyclone]

Should my forecast high of low 60's Thursday come to pass it would qualify as one of the colder days of the winter. Solid jacket weather deep into Florida looks like a lock at this point. Good opportunity to use up any leftover firewood and break out the slow cooker/stock pot and make some comfort food.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I must admit I am quite impressed with the strength of the coming cold snap. We are going from temperatures near 80 and a very warm February to struggling to hit the lower 60s the middle of next week.

[gatorcane]

The overnight GFS runs have not backed down and have actually gone even colder by a couple of degrees for Florida with 30s into Central Florida. Could be the real deal and the GFS finally got one right

[northjaxpro]

Thursday will really be a chilly day . Current model guidance has 31 degrees for the forecasted low on Thursday morning at the NWS Jax office, and max temp of only 57 degrees.

We have only had a total of 4 morning freezes at my home station this season. The last freeze of any kind here was on January 8, when it got to 25 degrees here, by far the coldest temp of this season. So, we have a shot of seeing a very late season freeze later this week.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/840916875462758402

[HURRICANELONNY]

Awesome

[MetroMike]

How awful and what a set back from the nice winter overall.The Spring breakers will not be thrilled I know.

[TheStormExpert]

How awful and what a set back from the nice winter overall.The Spring breakers will not be thrilled I know.

Yes it is so awful having nice unseasonably cool weather in the middle of March when all winter it felt like Summer.