Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Happy Easter everyone!
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Happy Easter Barbara and to the rest of Caribbean and Central America friends.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUED
TO ERODE TODAY...AS A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION NOW MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...WILL QUICKLY APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH NOW NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN... WITH MOISTURE ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THEN INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN
IS HELPING TO CREATE WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MAINTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES OR SO. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
REGION ...IT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE WHICH WILL DIP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
PATTERN. AS A RESULT SOME SHOWER MAY BE ENHANCED BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS...AND MAY REACH PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ON FRIDAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...WITH NO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ON SUNDAY WILL HOWEVER BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 05/22Z IN SHRA.
AFT 05/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUED
TO ERODE TODAY...AS A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION NOW MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...WILL QUICKLY APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH NOW NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN... WITH MOISTURE ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THEN INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN
IS HELPING TO CREATE WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MAINTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES OR SO. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
REGION ...IT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE WHICH WILL DIP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
PATTERN. AS A RESULT SOME SHOWER MAY BE ENHANCED BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS...AND MAY REACH PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ON FRIDAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...WITH NO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ON SUNDAY WILL HOWEVER BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 05/22Z IN SHRA.
AFT 05/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DEEP POLAR TROUGH FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN
NOAM/WRN ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO STALL NW OF OUR MAOR MON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SVRL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS TO HELP TRIGGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NULL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINS AS IT
WAS THE CASE TODAY. ON SUN...STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH COAST.
POLAR TROUGH FCST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS ERN NOAM/WRN
ATLC AND WILL HELP PUSH A CDFNT TO NRN HISPANIOLA WHERE IT WILL
STALL MON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING MID
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURGES MON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION MON-WED. POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EVENT DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.
THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT WED NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS
FRONT DISSIPATES AND JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI WHILE TNCM AND TKPK SHOULD EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
06/12Z. AFTER 06/12Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ MAINLY AFTER 06/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH 6-8 FT
SEAS IN NORTH SWELLS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOMORROW.
ANOTHER GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS IS EXPECTED MON-MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH
NOT AS LARGE AS THE ONE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 84 / 0 20 0 20
STT 75 78 75 83 / 20 20 20 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DEEP POLAR TROUGH FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN
NOAM/WRN ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO STALL NW OF OUR MAOR MON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SVRL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS TO HELP TRIGGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NULL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINS AS IT
WAS THE CASE TODAY. ON SUN...STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH COAST.
POLAR TROUGH FCST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS ERN NOAM/WRN
ATLC AND WILL HELP PUSH A CDFNT TO NRN HISPANIOLA WHERE IT WILL
STALL MON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING MID
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURGES MON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION MON-WED. POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EVENT DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.
THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT WED NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS
FRONT DISSIPATES AND JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI WHILE TNCM AND TKPK SHOULD EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
06/12Z. AFTER 06/12Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ MAINLY AFTER 06/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH 6-8 FT
SEAS IN NORTH SWELLS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOMORROW.
ANOTHER GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS IS EXPECTED MON-MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH
NOT AS LARGE AS THE ONE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 84 / 0 20 0 20
STT 75 78 75 83 / 20 20 20 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning on Good Friday. It looks like the weekend will be good in terms of weather conditions,but by early next week,increase showers will be the rule. Also,swells will be very high today so watch for that if you go to the beach.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...REMANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BROAD POLAR TROUGH ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY. MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SHEAR LINE REACH THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT MID/UPPER LEVEL...SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND INFLOW OF MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STORM MOTION OF
3 KTS OR LESS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER LONGER
OVER LAND.
THE APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALSO...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH CONDITIONS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 06/18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI WHILE TNCM AND TKPK SHOULD EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH 06/12Z. AFTER 06/12Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ MAINLY AFTER
06/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS WITH 6-8 FT SEAS IN NORTH SWELLS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS IS EXPECTED
MON-MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS LARGE AS THE ONE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 74 / 20 10 20 10
STT 85 75 84 76 / 20 20 10 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...REMANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BROAD POLAR TROUGH ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY. MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SHEAR LINE REACH THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT MID/UPPER LEVEL...SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND INFLOW OF MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STORM MOTION OF
3 KTS OR LESS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER LONGER
OVER LAND.
THE APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALSO...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH CONDITIONS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 06/18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI WHILE TNCM AND TKPK SHOULD EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH 06/12Z. AFTER 06/12Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ MAINLY AFTER
06/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS WITH 6-8 FT SEAS IN NORTH SWELLS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS IS EXPECTED
MON-MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS LARGE AS THE ONE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 74 / 20 10 20 10
STT 85 75 84 76 / 20 20 10 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS IN AND AROUND THE U.S.V.I. LATER
IN THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE
RULE OUT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORM MOTION OF 3 KTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS OR SO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE REACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEREFORE A WETTER/MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 07/18Z WITH BRIEF AND LOCAL EXCEPTIONS OVER NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WHERE MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06/18Z AND 07/03Z. LLVL WINDS ESE BELOW 6 KFT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 6 AND 15 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 83 / 10 40 10 20
STT 75 84 76 85 / 20 10 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS IN AND AROUND THE U.S.V.I. LATER
IN THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE
RULE OUT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORM MOTION OF 3 KTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS OR SO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE REACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEREFORE A WETTER/MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 07/18Z WITH BRIEF AND LOCAL EXCEPTIONS OVER NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WHERE MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06/18Z AND 07/03Z. LLVL WINDS ESE BELOW 6 KFT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 6 AND 15 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 83 / 10 40 10 20
STT 75 84 76 85 / 20 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good evening! These are the temperatures registered in Central America on April 4, and some locations had their hottest temperature in 1 or even 2 years:
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.8°C (51.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 33.2°C (91.8°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 29 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.8°C (76.6°F) Warmest since August 10 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 33°C (91°F) WARMEST SINCE MARCH 30 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 27 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.1°C (55.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 37.2°C (99.0°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 22 2010
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.8°C (51.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 33.2°C (91.8°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 29 2011
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.8°C (76.6°F) Warmest since August 10 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 33°C (91°F) WARMEST SINCE MARCH 30 2011
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 27 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.1°C (55.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 37.2°C (99.0°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 22 2010
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
And these are the observations for April 5 2012, it was a cooler day:
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F) Warmest since February 20 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.6°C (42.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F) Warmest since November 20 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.9°C (58.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F) Warmest since October 28 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.0°C (93.2°F) Coolest since February 2 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F) Coolest since March 6 2012
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.2°C (88.2°F) Coolest since February 2 2012
Panama city, Panama 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F) Warmest since February 20 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.6°C (42.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F) Warmest since November 20 2011
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.9°C (58.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F) Warmest since October 28 2011
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.0°C (93.2°F) Coolest since February 2 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F) Coolest since March 6 2012
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.2°C (88.2°F) Coolest since February 2 2012
Panama city, Panama 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY BUT THE ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
AND BY SUNSET THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.
SEAS ARE RECEDING AND NEARSHORE BUOYS IN SAN JUAN AND RINCON ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 4.9 AND 3.9 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED AND THE THIGH SERF ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BOTH AT 6PM AST.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE BIG PICTURE AND THEREFORE WE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. SINCE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT TODAY
WAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 0-6 KM AVERAGE WIND FOR 07/18Z IS AT
ZERO...SAME GOES FOR THE 0-6 KM STORM MOTION. THEREFORE...IF THE
MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...ANY SHOWER THAT WERE TO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
&&
.AVIATION...P6SM SKC OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. AFTERNOON TSTMS
XCPD SAT OVER THE CORDILLERA WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE NNE AROUND
5 KTS AND MAY AFFECT JMZ AND JPS BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. ADDED A VCTS GROUP
FOR THOSE AIRPORTS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE DAY BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY BUT THE ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
AND BY SUNSET THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.
SEAS ARE RECEDING AND NEARSHORE BUOYS IN SAN JUAN AND RINCON ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 4.9 AND 3.9 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED AND THE THIGH SERF ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BOTH AT 6PM AST.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE BIG PICTURE AND THEREFORE WE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. SINCE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT TODAY
WAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE 0-6 KM AVERAGE WIND FOR 07/18Z IS AT
ZERO...SAME GOES FOR THE 0-6 KM STORM MOTION. THEREFORE...IF THE
MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...ANY SHOWER THAT WERE TO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
&&
.AVIATION...P6SM SKC OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. AFTERNOON TSTMS
XCPD SAT OVER THE CORDILLERA WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE NNE AROUND
5 KTS AND MAY AFFECT JMZ AND JPS BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. ADDED A VCTS GROUP
FOR THOSE AIRPORTS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE DAY BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Heavy rains have been registered tonight in the northern countries of Central America, that's bad news for the people that traditionally make salt carpets, dramatize the passion of Christ on Good Fridays and do other outdoor activities every Easter (A nice tradition in our countries IMO). This is a recent satellite image:
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Good morning.
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DEEP POLAR TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES ACROSS WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SHEAR LINE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ABOUT 525
MILES NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KTS. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
WHILE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHEAR LINE WILL
SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY
AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...LAND/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL DOMINATE...
WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND THE INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 07/18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI WHILE TNCM AND TKPK SHOULD EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH 07/12Z. AFTER 07/12Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ MAINLY AFTER
07/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER GROUP
OF NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 30
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DEEP POLAR TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES ACROSS WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SHEAR LINE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ABOUT 525
MILES NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KTS. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
WHILE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHEAR LINE WILL
SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY
AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...LAND/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL DOMINATE...
WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND THE INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 07/18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI WHILE TNCM AND TKPK SHOULD EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH 07/12Z. AFTER 07/12Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ MAINLY AFTER
07/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER GROUP
OF NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good afternoon. An increasing moisture pattern will unfold starting on late Sunday and continuing thru midweek.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT
BE RULED OUT TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE
TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVERS DUE TO STORM MOTION OF 3 KTS OR LESS. IN FACT...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORM MOTION OF 3 KTS OR LESS
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ASSOCIATED
SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A RESULT A
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 08/16Z. ISOLD MVFR CONDS AND SCT MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONT
OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. LLVL WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY 5-15 KT
THROUGH 08/08Z. AFTER 08/08Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND OVER SW PR
AFTER 08/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER
GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT
BE RULED OUT TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE
TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVERS DUE TO STORM MOTION OF 3 KTS OR LESS. IN FACT...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORM MOTION OF 3 KTS OR LESS
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ASSOCIATED
SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A RESULT A
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 08/16Z. ISOLD MVFR CONDS AND SCT MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONT
OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. LLVL WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY 5-15 KT
THROUGH 08/08Z. AFTER 08/08Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND OVER SW PR
AFTER 08/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER
GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 30 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST SAT APR 7 2012
.UPDATE...JUST AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
FORECAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS PRODUCED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER RISES.
SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR TIMING AND CLOUD COVER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ENDED QUICKLY CLOSE TO SUNSET AND NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 06Z WHERE PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW. THIS TIME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BUT ONLY AT 2-3 KNOTS. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AS
OPPOSED TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR WHICH HAS BEEN THE
CASE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...P6SM BKN150 OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. SOME SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT NRN USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. SCT TSTMS XPCD SUN OVR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING JPS BETWEEN 19Z-22Z UNDER A LIGHT
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST SAT APR 7 2012
.UPDATE...JUST AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
FORECAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS PRODUCED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER RISES.
SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR TIMING AND CLOUD COVER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ENDED QUICKLY CLOSE TO SUNSET AND NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 06Z WHERE PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW. THIS TIME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BUT ONLY AT 2-3 KNOTS. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AS
OPPOSED TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR WHICH HAS BEEN THE
CASE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...P6SM BKN150 OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. SOME SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT NRN USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. SCT TSTMS XPCD SUN OVR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING JPS BETWEEN 19Z-22Z UNDER A LIGHT
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.
&&
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Good morning on this Easter Sunday,and Happy Easter to all our friends in the Caribbean and Central America.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES
MOVING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY...BUT A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
INDICATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE COMBINATION OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...DIURNAL
HEATING...GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING
AND SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE USVI AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJPS BETWEEN
19Z-22Z UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 74 / 40 40 40 30
STT 84 76 84 76 / 20 40 40 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES
MOVING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY...BUT A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
INDICATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE COMBINATION OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...DIURNAL
HEATING...GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING
AND SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE USVI AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJPS BETWEEN
19Z-22Z UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. ALL OTHER AIRPORTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MONDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 74 / 40 40 40 30
STT 84 76 84 76 / 20 40 40 30
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
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- Contact:
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
brunota2003 wrote:I've got to ask...cycloneye, do you ever sleep?
Happy Easter. You will not find me here after Midnight.
I usually come after 7 AM EDT.
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
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- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:brunota2003 wrote:I've got to ask...cycloneye, do you ever sleep?
Happy Easter. You will not find me here after Midnight.
Happy Easter to you too! Haha, it just seems like every time I get on you are floating around somewhere
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145526
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...JET ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG WEAKLY INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
NEXT SUNDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL HOLD LONG WAVE
TROUGHS NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS THAT APPROACH THE AREA.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH FROM
THIS SYSTEM...ALREADY PRESENT...WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A
SHEAR LINE FROM ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY ARRIVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND IF MODEL SOLUTION HOLDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAK AND
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHEAR LINE ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAN
JUAN AT 08/18Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WEAKLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AT THE
SURFACE AND BRINGS SOUTHEAST FLOW BACK BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AND
THIS IS THE MAIN VARIABLE IN THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE AND HEIGHTS
OF THE MARINE LAYER SEEM TO VARY LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST LATE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNINGS. THIS PATTERN MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN MORE AND DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MAY SEND ANOTHER FRONT/SHEAR LINE AS FAR AS PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT IS
TOO EARLY TO PUT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS WHICH LIKES TO
EXAGGERATE HOW DEEP FRONTS WILL ARRIVE INTO THE TROPICS HERE.
NEVERTHELESS BANDS OF MOISTURE IN CONVERGENCE THAT OCCURS IN FRONT
OF THIS SHEAR LINE MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA THAN WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 08/22Z IN SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA. AFT 08/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ
AND USVI.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTER THAT. MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO RUN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET HIGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 30 30 60 60
STT 74 84 75 85 / 40 40 60 60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...JET ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG WEAKLY INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
NEXT SUNDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL HOLD LONG WAVE
TROUGHS NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS THAT APPROACH THE AREA.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH FROM
THIS SYSTEM...ALREADY PRESENT...WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A
SHEAR LINE FROM ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY ARRIVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND IF MODEL SOLUTION HOLDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAK AND
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHEAR LINE ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAN
JUAN AT 08/18Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WEAKLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AT THE
SURFACE AND BRINGS SOUTHEAST FLOW BACK BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AND
THIS IS THE MAIN VARIABLE IN THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE AND HEIGHTS
OF THE MARINE LAYER SEEM TO VARY LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST LATE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNINGS. THIS PATTERN MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN MORE AND DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MAY SEND ANOTHER FRONT/SHEAR LINE AS FAR AS PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT IS
TOO EARLY TO PUT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS WHICH LIKES TO
EXAGGERATE HOW DEEP FRONTS WILL ARRIVE INTO THE TROPICS HERE.
NEVERTHELESS BANDS OF MOISTURE IN CONVERGENCE THAT OCCURS IN FRONT
OF THIS SHEAR LINE MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA THAN WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 08/22Z IN SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA. AFT 08/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ
AND USVI.
&&
.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTER THAT. MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO RUN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET HIGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 30 30 60 60
STT 74 84 75 85 / 40 40 60 60
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good afternoon! These are the temps in Central America for April 6 2012:
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.6°C (63.7°F) Warmest since November 16 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F) Warmest since September 8 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.8°C (55.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.0°C (77.0°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 26 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.1°C (44.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 30.0°C (86.0°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 28 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.4°C (99.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.5°C (97.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.1°C (80.8°F) Coolest since December 15 2011
Boquete, Panama 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.6°C (63.7°F) Warmest since November 16 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F) Warmest since September 8 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.8°C (55.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.0°C (77.0°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 26 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.1°C (44.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 30.0°C (86.0°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 28 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.4°C (99.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.5°C (97.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.1°C (80.8°F) Coolest since December 15 2011
Boquete, Panama 21.0°C (69.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
And these are the temperatures registered on April 7 2012:
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Near normal in Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F) Warmest since November 16 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.1°C (50.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F) Coldest since February 25 2012
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.8°C (44.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Guatemala and Honduras. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.0°C (75.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.3°C (97.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Minimum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Near normal in Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F) Warmest since November 16 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.1°C (50.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F) Coldest since February 25 2012
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.8°C (44.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Maximum Temperatures
-Warmer than normal in Guatemala and Honduras. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Costa Rica and Panama.
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.0°C (75.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.3°C (97.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
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Gustywind
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Re: Re:
brunota2003 wrote:cycloneye wrote:brunota2003 wrote:I've got to ask...cycloneye, do you ever sleep?
Happy Easter. You will not find me here after Midnight.
Happy Easter to you too! Haha, it just seems like every time I get on you are floating around somewhere
And this guy is awesome during the hurricane season... less than 7 hours of sleep BUT always pertinent analysis!!! He's incredible,
especially when a cane is looming near the Leewards islands and adjacents islands close to PR . He provides the best and that's an euphemisma. That's a trip monitoring the canes when you're a carib islander 
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