Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Concerning the St Barth crash for those who are interrested, here is a recap and a brief analysis of this catastrophic air crash. Go on this site http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 0barth.htm

You will understand why landing at St Barth is a matter of experts when you have to put your wheels on the runway. Impressive pics will give you a better idea of the environment and how low the planes must have to approach... Remember, the runway requires a special qualification for the pilots related to the rapid descent of the aircraft after the storm pass ( called " Col de la Tourmente"). Often capricious winds or swirling the crossing of the pass make delicate flight. The length of usable runway of St Barth in this sense is only 515 m and landings are spectacular!


St Barth: the crash of the neck of the storm

Saturday, March 24, 2001, the DHC-6 "Twin Otter" of the "Air Caribbean" registered F-OGES company performs the scheduled flight from the island of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy Island, distant 35 km. On board 17 passengers and 2 crew members.
While the aircraft turn short final before the pass of turmoil, many people see get in turn left at large tilt and then stick to the ground where he crashed near a House and catches fire. All the occupants perished and a person who was in the House.
The investigation of the BEA will conclude that a pilot error which would have triggered "the inverter beta" propellers to facilitate the reduction of the approach speed. But this manoeuvre is prohibited in flight by the manufacturer because it induces a strong instability of the aircraft.
Forensics made by Jean Belotti found more "incompatible with the flight safety" crew composition.
4 years of training have led to the indictment for manslaughter of chief instructor pilot and the Director General of Air Caribbean and the airline as Corporation.
The association of the families of victims (ADFV http://www.adfv.com/) was created in the aftermath of the accident and will be present at the trial which will proceed to Base land 29 and June 30, 2006, just after that of Colmar.
To better understand, read the press release of the association and the report of BEA (13 MB).

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

Gusty, that was a terrible crash in St Barth's. I remember it well.
Here is a video of a plane coming in and overshooting the runway in St Barth's. Luckily no one was hurt in this one.
quite an amazing video though

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z2o0acIlm4

[cycloneye]

Here is the climate report of March for Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands and the stats confirm how wet the month was. And that is very unusual as March normally is the second driest month of the year.Wow,incredible amounts that you can see at first line rain year to date. The graphic is for March only.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=mar2012cr

Code: Select all

Sector Rain YTD Normal YTD  PON YTD     
X North Coast 17.54 9.82 179%
X South Coast 8.83 2.42 355%
X North Slopes 17.96 8.51 211%
X South Slopes 11.17 5.96 187%
X East Interior 19.16 11.38 168%
X West Interior 18.80 9.49 198%
Puerto Rico Average 15.58 7.94 196%
X U.S. Virgin Islands 7.36 5.57 132%


[Gustywind]

Gusty, that was a terrible crash in St Barth's. I remember it well.
Here is a video of a plane coming in and overshooting the runway in St Barth's. Luckily no one was hurt in this one.
quite an amazing video though

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z2o0acIlm4

Thanks , this one is amazing too ! Waouw... landing in the Northern Islands is always spectacular

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. More rain is forecast for Puerto Rico by the weekend as a cold front,yes we are in April and we are dealing with a front.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST WED APR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THAT AREA OF THE ISLAND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
AND THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
ISLANDS EFFECTS WILL PRODUCE A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AS OF TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUS THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS THOSE DAYS. A COLD FONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY WEATHER...WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.40-1.60 INCHES
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PR
AROUND TJBQ...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONT THROUGH ARND 12/02Z.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ONLY BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS AT TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 12/18Z. WINDS AT LLVLS BELOW 12
KFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 50 70 70 60
STT 76 78 76 78 / 40 30 40 40

&&

[Gustywind]

Good afternoon. More rain is forecast for Puerto Rico by the weekend as a cold front,yes we are in April and we are dealing with a front.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST WED APR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THAT AREA OF THE ISLAND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
AND THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
ISLANDS EFFECTS WILL PRODUCE A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT AS OF TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUS THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS THOSE DAYS. A COLD FONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY WEATHER...WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.40-1.60 INCHES
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PR
AROUND TJBQ...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONT THROUGH ARND 12/02Z.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ONLY BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS AT TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 12/18Z. WINDS AT LLVLS BELOW 12
KFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 50 70 70 60
STT 76 78 76 78 / 40 30 40 40

&&

Cycloneye what nasty situation PR is dealing with?? There no words to comment these INCREDIBLE amounts of water! Looks like rivers or pools are building in PR?! no? Yah... give us some water Luis, the drought is becoming really menacing if this trend continues in Guadeloupe. Let's hope for the best.

[Macrocane]

In the last couple of days most of Central America has had a relief from the very warm temperatures that had been registered in the las few weeks. These are the observations for April 10 2012.

Minimum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. Cooler than normal in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.4°C (43.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.5°C (61.7°F) Coldest since March 6 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.2°C (100.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 39°C (102°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F) WARMEST SINCE APRIL 26 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The cold front will arrive on Saturday bringing plenty of rain by then for PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL MOVE EWD
NEXT SVRL DAYS PUSHING A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT.
FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE CARIB SEA MON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED TPW AND 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE
ADVECTING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE IR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING
TOPS AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. SHEARLINE EXTENDING ALONG
70W WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND HELP TRIGGER
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
THAT SHOULD TRACK TO THE SJU METRO AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON
WESTERLY STEERING WINDS. LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
600-500 MB LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THIS MAY KEEP TSTM CVRG
SOMEWHAT SCATTERED BUT EXPECT ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP TO BE QUITE
ROBUST/INTENSE. SVRL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE SWEAT INDEX AND
0-3KM SRH SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF SPIN UPS OR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS.
ALSO A 75+KT JET STREAK NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.

EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FRI WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING
FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE THAN LIKELY AFFECT THE SRN SLOPES. WITH A
SLOWER STORM MOTION...CONVECTION MAY POSE MORE OF A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. CDFNT WILL THEN ENTER THE AREA SAT
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM BECOMING TOO EXCESSIVE BUT FVRBL NE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL FAVOR GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST PR.


FRONT THEN SETTLES INTO THE CARIB SEA MON WITH VERY DRY AIR ON ITS
WAKE WITH BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FCST
TO DROP TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SO EXPECT THAT ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY NEXT WEEK. NO MORE THAN ISOLD
CVRG IS WARRANTED AND THIS MIGHT BE TOO PESSIMISTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TIL 12/13Z...
WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TIST AND TISX. SHRA AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO BTW 12/17Z
AND 12/22Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT TJSJ
AND TJBQ. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND USVI
TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SCT TSTMS THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY THROUGH FRI WHICH MAY
REQUIRED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS OUTSIDE
OF TSTMS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SAT AS CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS SAT-SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS
22-KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT IN NORTHEAST WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 85 73 / 60 60 30 50
STT 79 76 77 76 / 30 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

Cyclone: a season quiet?

B.C. France-Antilles Guadeloupe11.04.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 165819.php

"These revisions downward of cyclonic activity is plausible by favourable weather", according to William Gray, specialist in weather forecasting.

Professor William Gray, one of the global references in forecasting of cyclonic activity, has to review its estimates downward. In after him, 2012 should be marked by a sharp decrease in the number of phenomena.

Fewer storms, less days of storms and hurricanes less. While the West Indies will come in the cyclone season within 50 days, Professor William Gray, specialist in weather forecasting, comes to refine its work. Good news: between its first estimates, presented last December, and his latest work revealed recently, the figures have been revised downward.

Thus the number of storms should not exceed the ten fingers of the hands, whereas up to now, there are 12 scheduled. Idem with respect to the number of days of storms to 40 against 64 in the previous forecast. Finally, with regard to the number of hurricanes, it should not be more than 4, while estimates issued in December, provided 7. Alone, forecast to do not vary one iota: the number of major hurricanes which remains fixed at 3.

MORE FRESH WATER AND PROBABLE RETURN OF EL NIÑO

These forecasts downward cyclonic activity is plausible, according to Professor Gray, by favourable weather. So the temperature of the water, the heat is as a fuel for hurricanes, and which would be this year, a priori, colder than in previous years. In the aftermath, the return of El Niño, presented to limit the number of events in the Caribbean and on U.S. coasts, is considered relatively high.

Far from being alone in advance of such findings, Professor Gray joined Philips Klotzbach analyses, a researcher in sciences of the University of the State of Colorado, but also those of specialized Web sites in the cyclone area. This is the case, among other things, of the "hunters of cyclones" site noted that before even the last publication of Gray, that "waters, colder than those observed these last two years, suggest that we should know a cyclonic quieter season 2011 and 2010 which have counted both 19 cyclonic phenomena.".

WHAT PATHS?

Nevertheless, this site intends to be careful and relativizes: "all these forecasts are still with a tweezers." (...) At the present time, with forecasts Enso (El Nino Southern Oscillation) promoting a little more than 50% the chances to meet neutral conditions, we know a more active season than the average but which could be below what we have known these past two years. »
In all cases, all of these studies is not to lose sight a crucial point: the impossibility of predicting the road of these upcoming events. Guadeloupe can be relatively spared many from Hurricane of a season as in recent years, active, and, conversely, be hit head-on in a season considered quiet.

[b]-Weather-France awaits the findings of its studies[/b]

Motus and mouth sewn. Asked to respond to the recent data presented by Professor Gray and Philip Klotzbach from weather-France remains cautious.

"Of course, we had wind of the documents emanating from the United States, but we decided to not comment on." We prefer to wait for the findings of our own research and our analyses to communicate and speak on the upcoming season. "In a word: for guadeloupian forecasters, it still seems premature to speculate on the number of phenomena to fear between June 1 and November 30.


-The phenomena hit in August and September

Most of the identified cyclones in 2011 are developed between August and September (there has been 14 during this period). The majority of them remained at the level of tropical storm but six have reached the stage of hurricane, what weather-France, is "consistent with the average." Among them, Irène, Katia and Ophélia reached the stage of major hurricane (category 3 or greater).

RAIN, FLOODING AND HIGH WAVES...

Locally, the Lesser Antilles had been affected by four phenomena. Emily, who had opened the dance, had generated on 2 August in the morning of heavy rain in Martinique and in particular on the area of Fort-de-France. Maria, then, brought in early September of strong thunderstorms, which generated a significant electrical activity. As Ophelia, whose centre was passed North of the Caribbean arc, spiral bands had resulted on most of the Islands a few storm stormy passages of high intensities, with here and there of the floods. Finally, hurricane of category 4 Katia, who was yet spent well north of the Lesser Antilles, was to create a swell result, with hollow of 5 to 6 m in Guadeloupe.


-Alberto, Beryl and Chris

This year, the list of names used to identify storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean basin will be the same as that used in the 2006 season. Except names that have already been used. The first phenomenon should therefore be appoint Alberto. Then follow Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Hélène, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael and Nadine...


- 20

20 cyclonic phenomena identified in 2011. 18 have been referred to (against 11 on average), which means that they have at least reached the stage of tropical storm. The system that was passed in early September off the coast of Bermuda has been confirmed as the tropical storm that a posteriori by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and has therefore not received, for this reason, name.

[cycloneye]

Gusty,very interesting information from the butterfly island that you brought to the thread. Let's see what occurs this 2012 hurricane season for us who live in the Caribbean and Central America.

Here is the update about what to expect this afternoon in Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST THU APR 12 2012

.UPDATE...UPDATED...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THAT AREA OF THE ISLAND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THIS MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS WILL
PRODUCE A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...THUS THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MORE NUMEROUS. A COLD FONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY
WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE
OF 1.40-1.60 INCHES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONLY FEW MINOR
CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

[cycloneye]

Wow,90% probability of rain for Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS AND MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...THUS THE
CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY WEATHER...WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF
1.40-1.60 INCHES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...AROUND TJSJ
TJBQ...AND TJMZ. THUS...MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONT THROUGH ARND
12/23Z. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ONLY BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS AT TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 13/16Z. TJSJ 12/12Z INDICATED A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...FROM THE SURFACE TO 12K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
24 HOURS...THIS IN COMBINATION OF A NNW SWELL WILL GENERATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 82 / 30 30 50 90
STT 76 77 76 77 / 30 30 30 80

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Gusty,very interesting information from the butterfly island that you brought to the thread. Let's see what occurs this 2012 hurricane season for us who live in the Caribbean and Central America.

Here is the update about what to expect this afternoon in Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST THU APR 12 2012

.UPDATE...UPDATED...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THAT AREA OF THE ISLAND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THIS MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS WILL
PRODUCE A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...THUS THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MORE NUMEROUS. A COLD FONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY
WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE
OF 1.40-1.60 INCHES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONLY FEW MINOR
CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

Glad to bring you the best as well. Yeah let's see what could happen this season supposed to be "quiet"...
Regards.

[cycloneye]

And here comes the next rain event for Puerto Rico.

Night update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST THU APR 12 2012

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AND
AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL SHIFTING
EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. IN THE MEANTIME...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARDS OVER THE LOCAL REGION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL ALSO ENHANCE
NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
CULEBRA VIEQUES AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS THE STEERING WIND FLOW GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY.

[Macrocane]

Central America has had fairly comfortable temperatures for this time of year, actually the Pacific coast of the region may already be in the transition to the rainy season, the transition usually begins in the 3rd week of April and the rainy season begins in the 4th week of May, let's see if this year it begins sooner and that would mean that the maximum temperatures will get cooler sooner as well. These are the temperatures registered on April 11 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras. Near normal in El Salvador and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.5°C (58.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.2°C (50.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.7°C (42.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.5°C (97.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Here comes the rain event for PR on Saturday and Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST FRI APR 13 2012

..SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. JET MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LATER TODAY/EARLY SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS
SHEAR LINE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LIKELY FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARDS OVER
THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/SCT TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
MOUNTAIN RANGE TODAY AND TRACK ESE LIKELY IMPACTING JPS BETWEEN
18Z-22Z. SHOWERS THEN INCREASE IN CVRG TOWARD 12Z NORTH COAST PR
TERMINALS WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MDT RAIN/SHRA AND
EVENTUALLY USVI AND NCM SAT NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SUN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG CDFNT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS UP TO 24-KT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 82 73 / 30 50 90 70
STT 78 77 77 76 / 30 30 80 70

[msbee]

Good morning. Here comes the rain event for PR on Saturday and Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST FRI APR 13 2012

..SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. JET MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LATER TODAY/EARLY SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS
SHEAR LINE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LIKELY FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARDS OVER
THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/SCT TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
MOUNTAIN RANGE TODAY AND TRACK ESE LIKELY IMPACTING JPS BETWEEN
18Z-22Z. SHOWERS THEN INCREASE IN CVRG TOWARD 12Z NORTH COAST PR
TERMINALS WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MDT RAIN/SHRA AND
EVENTUALLY USVI AND NCM SAT NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SUN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG CDFNT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS UP TO 24-KT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 82 73 / 30 50 90 70
STT 78 77 77 76 / 30 30 80 70

Please send some our way!

[cycloneye]

I will try to send some Barbara.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 AM AST FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...CLOUDINESS HAS INCREASED ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN THE
MORNING. MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA HOWEVER HAS REMAINED DRY WITH ONLY
SHOWERS PRESENT ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.

13/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AVAILABLE ENERGY. COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND IN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
ADJUST FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Here comes the rain event for PR on Saturday and Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST FRI APR 13 2012

..SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. JET MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LATER TODAY/EARLY SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS
SHEAR LINE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LIKELY FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARDS OVER
THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/SCT TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
MOUNTAIN RANGE TODAY AND TRACK ESE LIKELY IMPACTING JPS BETWEEN
18Z-22Z. SHOWERS THEN INCREASE IN CVRG TOWARD 12Z NORTH COAST PR
TERMINALS WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MDT RAIN/SHRA AND
EVENTUALLY USVI AND NCM SAT NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SUN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG CDFNT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS UP TO 24-KT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 82 73 / 30 50 90 70
STT 78 77 77 76 / 30 30 80 70

Please send some our way!

Please seng some our WAY in the butterfly island

[cycloneye]

Folks,here all starts this afternoon as flood advisories start to pop up. Let's see how big this event will be in terms of having massive flooding or will be a minimal event. I will be posting the flood advisories at the thread for that.



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