Caribbean - Central America Weather

[HurricaneFan]

Will the rain reach Anguilla in the Leeward Islands?
Which area in DR,PR,VI & LI should get the heaviest rain?(forecast say DR but can maybe change?)
So with the event lasting from Saturday through at least Thursday as the forecast say,what is the possibility of a flash flood watch being issued for any of these areas?

[cycloneye]

Hi,so is the rain coming to Anguilla in the Leeward Islands too?
And if so how much rain should the Leeward Islands get compared to the VI,PR and DR?(I heard the forecast said DR will get the heaviest rain)

First,welcome to the Caribbean and Central America Weather thread. To answer your question,it looks like a good chance for rain for the NE Caribbean in the next few days,especially by Monday and Tuesday of next week.Stay tuned to this thread because you will get the very latest information about what to expect.

[Macrocane]

Good evening, the temperatures in Central America for April 18 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras and Nicaragua. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.6°C (49.3°F) Warmest since February 8 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.3°C (55.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Nicaragua and Honduras. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Belice, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The weekend will see increasing showers,but Monday and tuesday of next week will have the best dynamics for plenty of rain for PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI APR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS RESPECTIVELY...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LOOSING
ITS INFLUENCES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS...WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF
ANY...OVER LAND AREAS. IN COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE
BY SUNDAY AND TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OR EVEN MORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY TODAY AS THEY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS HAPPENS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY SATURDAY AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION...WILL PROMOTE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THUS A SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. UNDER THE EXPECTED
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THE AREA MOST AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE REGION NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFT 20/16Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ DUE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. LATEST VAD
WIND PROFILE AND PREVIOUS TJSJ 20/00Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS NE WINDS OF
10 KTS OR LESS BTW SFC-050K FT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCR ABV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 10 20 20 10
STT 84 74 85 76 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI APR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS
TO RESULT IN SULTRY CONDITIONS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING ALONG 65W DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP CUTOFF LOW FORMING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA MEANING THAT WE`LL EXPERIENCE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY WE ARE
IN FOR A HEAT WAVE WITH SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WE`LL ALSO HAVE DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA UNDER
A SSW STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHEARLINE/DEEP UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO HOLD BACK OVER HISPANIOLA AM
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. EXPECT THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT OVER PR AND THE USVI BEING THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGS WARMER THAN
WHAT WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK. CHANGES IN HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE QUITE DRASTIC FROM TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEK TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. THIS
COULD BE DIFFICULT TO ACCLIMATE TO IN SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
AND THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR EVEN FOR PUERTO RICO STANDARDS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN DEAMPLIFIES LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A RELIEF
TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WINDS ALSO PICK UP AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ALONG WITH SOME DRYING EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AND OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT JMZ AND THEN EVENTUALLY AT JBQ.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 76 85 / 0 20 10 20
STT 75 77 76 78 / 10 10 30 30

[Gustywind]

METEO. Guadeloupe in yellow for heavy rains and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr20.04.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 167017.php

The time is over the next three days often sullen and unstable. The rains are not continuous and widespread, but they are sometimes of high intensity and stormy. South of a more unstable air rising and the lack of wind generate sometimes important storm stormy episodes on our archipelago. He is already fallen since yesterday afternoon on the area between Deshaies and Sainte - Rose, values between 150 and 200 mm of water, on the North high-Earth between 70 and 80 mm and the great funds between 30 and 70 mm. The risk of overflow of gullies, local floods, landslides and lightning strikes are therefore important. The accumulation of precipitation in some areas could result. Caution is advised on the roads. Avoid any hiking in the mountains.

[HurricaneFan]

Did the forecast just did an 180 and switch to a heatwave?

[cycloneye]

Did the forecast just did an 180 and switch to a heatwave?

It appears that most of the rain expected for early next week will be in the Dominican Republic and Northern Puerto Rico.Winds will veer to the SE and South that will cause higher temperatures.

[msbee]

Well, look at this. We have an Invest

[cycloneye]

Well, look at this. We have an Invest

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

The invest has been deactivated,but is the first sign that the hurricane season is approaching fast and we have to be prepared in case the islands are threatened.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al912012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201204201351
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A great discussion made this morning that I dont have to add anything as it explains clearly what will occur starting today thru next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT APR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA LIFTS NORTH AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER PUERTO RICO NOW THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NOW
THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MODEST.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE FORMS JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND MOVES EAST AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS MOIST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST AT 30 NORTH
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STREAMING AROUND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY PUERTO RICO...WHERE SHOWERS ARE BUILDING UP
AGAINST THE WAKE CREATED BY THE LAND BREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND MODELS SHOW A SHARP RISE
FRIDAY...THAT IS YESTERDAY...THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VALUES ABOVE TWO
INCHES AT TIMES DURING EACH DAY...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
BRINGS INCREASING POPS TO THE AREA BEGINNING TODAY AND INCREASING
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A SHEARLINE WILL
REACH THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY AND THE GFS
HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM CONVERGENCE IN A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER US THAT SAME DAY. CURRENTLY BEST DYNAMICS
ALOFT ARE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES GENERALLY DIVERGENT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN INCREASE OF AROUND 6
DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE VALUES
SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
OF PUERTO RICO WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AND HOLD
BACK THE SEA BREEZE MUCH OF THE TIME. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SAN JUAN WILL REACH RECORD
TEMPERATURES WHICH RANGE FROM 92 TO 95 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A FEW STATIONS IN THE AREA MAY BREAK 90 DEGREES.
WITH THE INCREASE IN HEATING ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE PREVALENT. SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH BANISHED TO 50
NORTH 35 WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT TNCM UNTIL 21/11Z.
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VICINITY OF
TIST..TISX...AND TJSJ IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO
RICO...AFFECTING TJMZ...THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VICINITY
OF TJPS...TJSJ...AND TJBQ. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FAR
AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE CONCERNED...BUT THE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE NAVIGATION MORE DIFFICULT...AND SEAS MAY
LOCALLY EXCEED 7 FEET IN THE GUSTY WINDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 75 / 30 50 50 40
STT 77 76 78 76 / 20 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

A updated discussion late this morning tells the story for this weekend and beyond.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 AM AST SAT APR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS DEEP CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. A LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SRN
STREAM OVR THE GMEX CONTINUES TO DIG PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE IS MUCH DEEPER THAN INITIALIZED BY GLOBAL MODELS BASED ON
12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SFC
CYCLOGENESIS FCST TO TAKE PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
GIVEN THAT CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GMEX EXPECT A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

CLOSER TO HOME...SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE ALL WEEK HAS
ERODED BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR LATE APRIL WITH
PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MAIN ELEMENT THAT CALLS MY ATTENTION
THIS MORNING IS DECENT SRH VALUES AROUND 55 M^2/S^2 WITH VALUES
FCST TO PEAK BETWEEN 100-150 M^2/S^2 LATER TODAY ACCORDING TO 12Z
NAM AND 06Z GFS. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH
ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. STORM MOTION IS FCST TO BE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS BASED ON 0-6KM MEAN WINDS.

A HEAT WAVE APPEARS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER AMPLIFLYING
UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGS
WARMER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
THIS WILL BE QUITE A DRASTIC CHANGE AND DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE TO
ACCLIMATE GIVEN THAT IS SO EARLY IN THE YEAR AND REFRESHINGLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN
RANGE AFTER 16Z POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ/JBQ AND JSJ. HAVE VCTS FOR
JSJ AND JBQ AND TEMPO FOR JMZ WITH MVFR CIGS RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT MOST OF THE WEEK IN SE
WIND WAVES. SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST WILL
THE MAIN THREAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 75 / 20 20 40 40
STT 78 75 78 76 / 10 30 30 50

[Gustywind]

A updated discussion late this morning tells the story for this weekend and beyond.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 AM AST SAT APR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS DEEP CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. A LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SRN
STREAM OVR THE GMEX CONTINUES TO DIG PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE IS MUCH DEEPER THAN INITIALIZED BY GLOBAL MODELS BASED ON
12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SFC
CYCLOGENESIS FCST TO TAKE PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
GIVEN THAT CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GMEX EXPECT A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

CLOSER TO HOME...SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE ALL WEEK HAS
ERODED BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR LATE APRIL WITH
PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MAIN ELEMENT THAT CALLS MY ATTENTION
THIS MORNING IS DECENT SRH VALUES AROUND 55 M^2/S^2 WITH VALUES
FCST TO PEAK BETWEEN 100-150 M^2/S^2 LATER TODAY ACCORDING TO 12Z
NAM AND 06Z GFS. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH
ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. STORM MOTION IS FCST TO BE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS BASED ON 0-6KM MEAN WINDS.

A HEAT WAVE APPEARS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER AMPLIFLYING
UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGS
WARMER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
THIS WILL BE QUITE A DRASTIC CHANGE AND DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE TO
ACCLIMATE GIVEN THAT IS SO EARLY IN THE YEAR AND REFRESHINGLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN
RANGE AFTER 16Z POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ/JBQ AND JSJ. HAVE VCTS FOR
JSJ AND JBQ AND TEMPO FOR JMZ WITH MVFR CIGS RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT MOST OF THE WEEK IN SE
WIND WAVES. SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST WILL
THE MAIN THREAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 75 / 20 20 40 40
STT 78 75 78 76 / 10 30 30 50

Very interresting discussion.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion from the San Juan NWS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SAT APR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS DEEP CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. A LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED PROGRESSIVELY DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS OVER THE REGION. THETA-E VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
AROUND 329K..AND THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
335K THROUGH MID WEEK...COMPARE TO 313K WHICH WERE OBSERVED 3 DAYS
AGO. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 2.0 INCHES BY TOMORROW. A VERY MOIST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK. UNDER A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE REGION...THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW
MOVER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IMPORTANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LOCAL
2KM WRF MODEL DEPICT THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND LINGERING THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO...THIS SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL INDUCE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WET PATTERN WILL BE
REPLACE BY A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 22/00Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ...AND POSSIBLE TJSJ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AT
LEAST 21/22Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 20 40 40 50
STT 76 84 77 84 / 30 30 50 50

[Gustywind]

It's raining cats and dogs here in Guadeloupe, especially in my area. My garden is flooded like a small river. Important amounts of water are spreading more than nicely and it's an euphemisma as the wind is so calm! Weather is grey and sad. I continue to follow closely the situation as maybe others localities are maybe dealing with this rain event.

[Macrocane]

Hi! The temperatures on April 20 2012 in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador and Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.0°C (48.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F) Warmest since August 26 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.2°C (54.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize. Near normal in Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in most of Guatemala, in El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.4°C (92.1°F) Coolest since February 2 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.4°C (75.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The more wet period has arrived for Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands and may last until next Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST SUN APR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER FRIDAY FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A SHEAR LINE MAY MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND 1 MAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIA WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTER WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 25 AND 30
NORTH AND EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW RESUMES. GENERALLY GOOD
MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEN
RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A SHEAR LINE MAY MOVE
THROUGH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...A FEW QUITE HEAVY...HAVE BEEN MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THESE
MOVED ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO ON THE WINDWARD SIDE...AND A FEW
SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS AT
ASOS STATIONS WERE NOT MEASURABLE. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY A
MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PW VALUE IN THE SOUNDING OVER
SAN JUAN AT 22/00Z WAS 2.02 INCHES. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS EXTENDS EAST AS FAR AS 55 WEST
AND NORTH AS FAR AS 20 NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL DRIVE SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SATURDAY`S
SHOWERS SHOWED BEST RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST IN
THE VEGA BAJA AND MANATI MUNICIPALITIES AND A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WITH
EXCEPTIONS OF LATE EVENING SHOWERS IN GUANICA AND ADJOINING
MUNICIPALITIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IN ALL AREAS SHOULD INCREASE AS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND A SLOW AND SUBTLE SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO CREATE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
NOTE SOME TRANSIENT AREAS OF DIVERGENCE PASSING OVER THE AREA IN
THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND SOME
DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE 22/00Z GFS MODEL RUN
THAT WILL HELP IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS NOW SHOWING LESS MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY
OVER THE AREA AS A SHEAR LINE APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER
HISPANIOLA CONCENTRATING THE MOISTURE THERE. HOWEVER THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE RESPONDING TO A POSSIBLE PRE-SHEAR LINE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STILL HAS HIGH POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO. WITH RICH MOISTURE UP THROUGH AT LEAST 800 MB WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS TYPICAL OF THIS FLOW PATTERN AND KEEP GENERALLY
HIGH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO...WITH FRINGE POPS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING SHOULD THEREFORE BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS
WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY...INCLUDING TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO IN THE
FAVORED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO
PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE USVI/BVI IN THE MORNING. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND
LOW CIGS ACROSS THE LOCAL SITES...VCTS POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJPS. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEREFORE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJBQ. PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS RUNNING 5 FEET OR LESS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 12 TO 18 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. ALTHOUGH SEAS INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 40 30 50 30
STT 84 76 85 77 / 30 40 40 40

[msbee]

Good morning
I was wakened during the night..I have no idea what time..by heavy rain. I feel back asleep , woke up a little later and it was still raining heavily.
The airport report shows there were rain showers at 2 AM into 3 AM.
This morning the planters are full and the ground is soggy.
My little rain gauge shows almost 3 inches. The pool has filled right up to the brim.
We must have had a lot of rain overnight..thankfully.
The skies are still cloudy this morning.

[Jimsot]

An inch of rain here overnight on the southeast coast of Anguilla. Hadn't seen or heard thunder and lightening in awhile but there was plenty last night. Summer is on its way.

[cycloneye]

The flood advisories are starting to pop up early and that means,there will be many on this Sunday. I went to church with the sun and clear skies and came out of church cloudy and rainy.