Texas Fall 2019

[Brent]

definitely a front at the end of the Euro

Not as drastic as the GFS but the timing is very similar

[Brent]

And now the euro is colder than the gfs

[TheProfessor]

It was brought to my attention from my Ohio State meteorology chat that the pivotal weather now has a hi-res version of the Euro on the site.

[Cpv17]

And now the euro is colder than the gfs

Ehhh I’m not impressed.

[bubba hotep]

It was brought to my attention from my Ohio State meteorology chat that the pivotal weather now has a hi-res version of the Euro on the site.

Lock it in, since I'll be in the area!



However, I'm just being greedy, I should see some snow next week.

[TheProfessor]

It was brought to my attention from my Ohio State meteorology chat that the pivotal weather now has a hi-res version of the Euro on the site.

Lock it in, since I'll be in the area!

https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2019110312/216/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

However, I'm just being greedy, I should see some snow next week.

My family will be heading to DC for Christmas so I'm crossing my fingers for some snow.

[northjaxpro]

The GFS might be an extreme, but there are definitely hints of some colder air diving south in around the 12th or so. Ensemble members are great tools, but they shouldn't be taken verbatim(plus has the GEFS officially moved to the new version?) Anyways both the GEFS and EPS have troughs over the eastern U.S so there are signs for a cool down. The set up really is pretty interesting though, when you look at the teleconnections you have a positive NAO, which usually means the east coast is going to be on the warm side. However, the NAO has some things working against it. Right now the forecast is for the EPO to stay negative, the PNA to go very positive, and the AO to go negative, all those teleconnections favor cold filtering into the U.S. The positive PNA typically favors cold spilling eastward, but I do wonder if the positive NAO will help prevent that. I'm wondering if we could actually get a super interesting setup and end up with possibly a big East Coast or Midwest winter storm. The GFS does develop a subtropical ridge this up coming week, but quickly weakens it. If the GFS is weakening that ridge too quickly and you get a deep trough to dig in response to ridging in Canada and Alaska(due to the +PNA and -EPO) and you now have a boundary for a storm to form on. There are definitely some interesting factors at play here and any change to them could have drastic changes to the weather that the U.S sees.

Excellent post and observations. I wanted to follow up with what you were mentioning regarding the forecast of +PNA -EPO and +NAO by the middle of this month.

We had a situation.in.late December 2017.going into the first week of January 2018 in which we had the similar teleconnections set up which bought very cold temps and freezes to North Florida. Interesting thing to note was that the GFS, at that time , was very adament.on bringing that cold arctic air mass into the Deep South, similar to what today's GFS runs are showing to happen by mid month.

The GFS happened to be correct in not only with the arctic air coming south, but it also was correct.in forecasting a winter storm which occured across Southeast Georgia and into South Carolina in Jan 3-4 2018. The EURO initially missed the magnitude of the cold outbreak in the long range forecast (at least 10 days out) at that time.

So, a couple of things to point out here. The GFS indeed could be on to something here and it gave proof that a -EPO and + PNA can deliver cold arctic air into the Deep South despite a +NAO. It is something to really closely watch in the next few days. The situation that occured in the Deep South back in early January 2018 was handled very well by the GFS and I trusted the GFS that it was right back then with my forecasts, compared to the EURO and the GFS nailed it. So, the GFS has great merit with this situation and I am not saying it will happen exactly like this in 0a couple of weeks. However, all I am stating here is for folks in general to not scoff at what today"s Operational GFS is potentially indicating down the road.

I went back in the archives to pull up the pages on the Southeast U.S. Winter Storm from the Florida Weather Thread on our Storm 2k forum. . I tracked that storm from the early genesis, and how the GFS was spot on both with the arctic air dropping into the Deep South and the development of that winter storm back in Jan 3-4, 2018. All this with the -EPO, +PNA offsetting the +NAO

I decided to bring back the discussion on that storm I had with the gang on here back at that time, which began on pg 602 and you can go from there...…

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=95455&start=12040

[Brent]

0z Euro has a 1043 mb high over Kansas and the coldest air of the season now for next Monday/Tuesday, DFW in the low to mid 20s and highs struggling to the 40s

the GFS stays well above freezing

[gpsnowman]

0z Euro has a 1043 mb high over Kansas and the coldest air of the season now for next Monday/Tuesday, DFW in the low to mid 20s and highs struggling to the 40s

the GFS stays well above freezing

Evan Andrews from Fox4 mentioned a STRONG front next Monday, just outside his 7 day outlook. Giddy up.

[Brent]

0z Euro has a 1043 mb high over Kansas and the coldest air of the season now for next Monday/Tuesday, DFW in the low to mid 20s and highs struggling to the 40s

the GFS stays well above freezing

Evan Andrews from Fox4 mentioned a STRONG front next Monday, just outside his 7 day outlook. Giddy up.

The 12z GFS looks interesting

[PTrackerLA]

00z Euro and 12z GFS showing 20's down to the gulf coast in Louisiana next Tuesday and Wednesday. November 12th/13th what is going on?!

[Cpv17]

The front you guys are talking about for next Monday I’m not too excited about it here in Texas. Looks like the brunt of that cold shot will be aimed towards the southeast and not straight south.

[TheProfessor]

That was a pretty impressive storm on the 0z Euro for New England. Drops 20+ inches of snow for a lot of Massachusetts.

[PTrackerLA]

There's plenty of cold coming for all of us on the 12z Euro! We could be 10-15 degrees below normal for the monthly average for the entire first half of November if this verifies. Doesn't look like the fronts will stop at that point either.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1191432585374830592

[hamburgerman7070]

I think the main key if we will have a cold winter is if the enso 1+2 region warms up. If it does too much, we are screwed lol. If not, prepare now for a long cold winter this winter.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like the 12z Euro forms a Gulf low at the end of its run, would be interesting to see how that evolves over the coming days if it doesn't drop it.

[South Texas Storms]

The front you guys are talking about for next Monday I’m not too excited about it here in Texas. Looks like the brunt of that cold shot will be aimed towards the southeast and not straight south.

It looks like we're going to get more than a glancing blow from that next shot of cold air early next week. While the core of it might pass to our northeast, it will still probably get quite chilly across much of TX.

[Cpv17]

The front you guys are talking about for next Monday I’m not too excited about it here in Texas. Looks like the brunt of that cold shot will be aimed towards the southeast and not straight south.

It looks like we're going to get more than a glancing blow from that next shot of cold air early next week. While the core of it might pass to our northeast, it will still probably get quite chilly across much of TX.

The coldest temp I could find on the 12z Euro for my area over the next 10 days was 43 degrees. We just recorded 33 with the front last week. So yeah it gets cold, but nothing I would consider out of the norm for this time of year. Unless you think it’ll be colder? The front last week looks more potent for our region than next weeks.

[South Texas Storms]

The front you guys are talking about for next Monday I’m not too excited about it here in Texas. Looks like the brunt of that cold shot will be aimed towards the southeast and not straight south.

It looks like we're going to get more than a glancing blow from that next shot of cold air early next week. While the core of it might pass to our northeast, it will still probably get quite chilly across much of TX.

The coldest temp I could find on the 12z Euro for my area over the next 10 days was 43 degrees. We just recorded 33 with the front last week. So yeah it gets cold, but nothing I would consider out of the norm for this time of year. Unless you think it’ll be colder? The front last week looks more potent for our region than next weeks.

I see the 12z Euro has back to back days with highs in the upper 40s in southwest Houston early next week. That's very impressive for early November!

[hamburgerman7070]

The front you guys are talking about for next Monday I’m not too excited about it here in Texas. Looks like the brunt of that cold shot will be aimed towards the southeast and not straight south.

It looks like we're going to get more than a glancing blow from that next shot of cold air early next week. While the core of it might pass to our northeast, it will still probably get quite chilly across much of TX.

The coldest temp I could find on the 12z Euro for my area over the next 10 days was 43 degrees. We just recorded 33 with the front last week. So yeah it gets cold, but nothing I would consider out of the norm for this time of year. Unless you think it’ll be colder? The front last week looks more potent for our region than next weeks.

Cpv17, i hope your talking about 43 for a high lol. Its going to get cold, but the coldest air will be to your northeast. The blast shoukd be alot colder imo.