MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0829 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND ERN NEB / ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154...158...
   
   VALID 070129Z - 070300Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF WW 154 BY
   02Z...THEREFORE THIS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME.
   ELSEWHERE...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
   DIMINISHING ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB...SUGGESTING WW 158 COULD
   POSSIBLY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
   
   AS OF 0120Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS FROM BURT COUNTY NEB SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER
   INTO BROWN AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN NERN KS.  DESPITE LARGELY
   MERIDIONAL INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS...OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT IS MORE
   EWD WHICH SHOULD TAKE THIS DEVELOPMENT INTO WW 160 BY 02Z.  FARTHER
   TO THE N...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE
   STABILIZATION OF AIR MASS WITH MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
   ALONG NRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM GREGORY AND CHARLES
   MIX COUNTIES EWD TO YANKTON COUNTY IN SD.  THESE STRONGER STORMS
   WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   LITTLE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OWING TO
   THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED WIDESPREAD COLD POOL
   DEVELOPMENT.  THEREFORE...SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   CONTINUE...PORTIONS OF WW 158 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY /SPECIFICALLY
   FROM SW TO NE/.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...UNR...
   
   37049626 43110057 43019659 40039540 37049503

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN INTO CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
   
   VALID 070227Z - 070330Z
   
   SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 02Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM E OF ADM
   SWD THROUGH THE METROPLEX TO W OF TPL. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WHICH
   HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NEAR ACT TO AUS
   HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...PRESUMABLY
   OWING TO STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...PRE-FRONTAL
   AIRMASS. 
   
   CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN FRINGE OF
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW IS
   RAPIDLY SHIFTING NE OF THE REGION.  THUS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
   THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...IT APPEARS THAT
   A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   
   34049586 33969479 33409445 30869560 30239713 30259778
   30949808 33999639

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/WRN IA...SWRN MN AND SERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 160...
   
   VALID 070251Z - 070445Z
   
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL STILL
   EXIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS OVER MUCH OF WW 160.
   
   REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 160 /WRN IA/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MAIN MID
   LEVEL FORCING INTERACTS WITH REMAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
   AROUND 1500 J/KG/. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SVR
   HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
   MIDNIGHT OVER SWRN IA WHERE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY
   STABILIZED YET. FARTHER NORTH...MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
   LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ ACROSS FAR NWRN IA/SERN SD AND SWRN MN/ WILL
   SUPPORT MORE LIMITED SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. THUS A NEW WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED NORTH OF WW 160.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL MO...ON THE
   NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH SERN
   PORTION OF WW 160 /CENTRAL MO/ AND INTO NERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HRS. GIVEN WANING INSTABILITY AND DEEPENING STABLE LAYER IN THE
   LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...A SVR WIND THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
   BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WW OVER NERN MO /EAST OF WW
   160/.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   
   44149680 43939777 43319714 42299637 41309594 39759527
   39109505 38919373 39009273 39979196 41719231 43609452

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO / NW AND N-CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...159...
   
   VALID 070321Z - 070445Z
   
   THROUGH 0430Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FROM
   HRO TO W OF RUE EWD TO E OF UNO SWD TO LIT.  ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS FROM BOONE COUNTY AR SWWD TO SCOTT COUNTY AR MOVING
   245/40-50 KTS. EMBEDDED CELLS OVER BOONE AND LOGAN/YELL COUNTIES
   INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MESOCYCLONES WITH REFLECTIVITY DATA
   SUGGESTING HP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.
   
   LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS THE
   NWRN QUARTER OF AR IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500
   M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 65-75 KTS.  PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS
   WHETHER THESE STORMS ARE TRULY SURFACE-BASED OR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.  RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE
   WINDS...GROUND CLUSTER SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON LIT 88D AND RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED TO
   SOME DEGREE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEPTH
   OF THIS INVERSION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL
   EXISTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   FARTHER TO THE N IN MO...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
   BE LIMITING STORM INTENSITY.  SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...AN
   ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS E-CNTRL AND PARTS OF SERN MO.
    HOWEVER...A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NERN AR PERHAPS INTO FAR SERN MO.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   
   38849490 38819167 34639137 34719462

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR...WRN TN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
   MS...SERN MO...WRN KY AND SRN IL...SWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071407Z - 071600Z
   
   PARTS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THREAT FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS
   AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A LONE ELEVATED STORM CONTINUES ACROSS WRN TN.
   THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS OTHER
   CLOUDS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE THICKER STRATUS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A
   MORE CONVECTIVE CHARACTER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW TO MID 60S HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS
   OF THE TN VALLEY. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOW STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY ADVECT EWD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT.
   MORNING ACARS AND RAOB DATA ALSO INDICATE A WEAK CAP REMAINING AND
   SUGGEST ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO
   BECOME SURFACE BASED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT MOVING
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER
   MOISTURE FROM MS NWD THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO AND WRN KY.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
   THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE CAP WEAKENS
   AND AS A VORT MAX PIVOTS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NATURE
   OF THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
   
   36838661 35278727 34128880 34349176 37778961 38158759

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1047 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...CNTRL AND NRN MS...CNTRL AND NRN
   AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071547Z - 071745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   THIS MORNING AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOW TO MID 60S HAS SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATUS.
   HOWEVER...MIXING IS INCREASING AROUND THE EDGES OF THIS STRATUS DECK
   WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE ACROSS ERN AR. THE
   SPECIAL 14Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS SHOWED SOME COOLING HAS OCCURRED IN
   THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITH LITTLE CAP REMAINING. THIS SUGGEST ONLY A
   MODEST AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING IS NEEDED WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS TO
   PROMOTE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
   CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT EWD
   ABOVE THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   INITIALLY OVER SERN AR AND NRN MS THEN SPREAD EWD. A 30-40 KT SWLY
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM SEWD ADVANCING UPPER
   TROUGH. THIS FEATURE AND A STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
   PROFILES AND EXPECTED DISCRETE MODES...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL
   BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   33269277 34719142 34958843 34788574 33298596 32039145

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND...THROUGH W CNTRL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071723Z - 071930Z
   
   PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS AND LINES APPEAR LIKELY
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   50S TO LOWER 60S CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE WLY...THE
   RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF THIS AREA. THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...AND TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN. NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
   AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR S OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN
   OH WWD THROUGH NRN IND AND NRN IL. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. LARGELY WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT
   STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR
   CLUSTERS. WITH THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF
   THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST. THIS IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
   THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   39358373 38678827 38828993 39798993 40518892 40818728
   41178564 40478343

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH/ERN KY/WV/FAR SWRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071835Z - 071930Z
   
   WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN OH SWD ACROSS ERN
   KY/WRN WV AND FAR SWRN VA.
   
   AIR MASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
   /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG NOW INTO FAR SWRN OH/ERN KY/TN/ AS
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ENEWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER OH/TN
   VALLEYS.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER REGIONAL 18Z SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REST OF THIS AREA.  SWLY MID-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS 60-80 JET
   TRANSLATES ENE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY OVER
   50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  ALTHOUGH WIND
   FIELDS ARE GENERALLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WITH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE
   18Z PIT SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
   
   A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
   ERN KY INTO WV...WITH UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS IND AND CENTRAL KY
   EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OH/ERN KY BY 20Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...
   
   40938473 41228324 41048060 38738051 36528169 36288400
   36408477 37418494

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...CNTRL AND
   NRN MS AND AL...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 162...163...
   
   VALID 071922Z - 072115Z
   
   THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY
   NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SRN IL INTO
   SRN IND. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS
   OF SERN AR...NRN LA INTO MS AND AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
   STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
   HAIL ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
   
   THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG FROM
   NERN LA...SERN AR INTO CNTRL AND NRN MS AND NRN AL. THE 18Z RAOB
   FROM JACKSON STILL SHOWED SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE 850
   MB-700 MB LAYER. WARMING AND MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD ADVANCING UPSTREAM VORT MAX
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
   STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION RELATIVE
   TO THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR VERTICAL SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. KINEMATIC AND
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE CONFIRMED WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING THROUGH
   WRN AND MIDDLE TN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SHIFT ENEWD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SHV...
   
   32878673 31849259 35109139 38058958 37828555

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 164...
   
   VALID 072056Z - 072230Z
   
   GREATEST TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SRN PORTION
   OF WW164. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD
   MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW164. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREAT WITH ALL STORMS.
   
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
   AND STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. STEEP MID-LAPSE LEVEL RATES
   AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE
   HAIL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   MID-LEVEL COOLING THAT HAS OCCURRED. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
   SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC STORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW164 AND
   FURTHER S WHERE NEAR-SURFACE BACKING EXISTS. FURTHER N...THE IND VAD
   PROFILER SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE WITH ONLY
   MODEST SPEED SHEAR.
   
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE
   SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF DEC TO MIE AT 20Z. THE STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER WEAK AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AS EVIDENCED BY ILX AND LSX VAD
   PROFILERS SUPPORT A DIMINISHING TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS CNTRL IL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   40128970 40298819 40368555 40178493 39328494 38928505
   38728543 38798670 38608821 38578965 38799022 39578988

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OH/ERN KY/ERN TN/WRN WV/FAR WRN
   VA/FAR WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
   
   VALID 072057Z - 072230Z
   
   PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN/SRN PARTS
   OF WW 165.
   
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ENEWD INTO WRN OH
   AND ERN KY WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDED SWD INTO ERN TN WITH STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS OVER MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN PART OF WW 165
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AREA WSR-88D VADS INDICATED UNI-
   DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A
   CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN PART OF WW 165 WHERE THE TORNADO
   THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST.
   
   FARTHER NE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OH...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS
   RESULTED IN DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR AND AT LEAST 30 DEGREE
   SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  STORMS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT
   MAY HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN WV INTO NRN VA/WRN MD...30-50 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS.  AIR MASS HAS
   BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LIMIT
   SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 165...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...
   
   35128555 36788510 40648484 40648157 39808066 39417788
   38577818 36878108 36428171 34948315

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LA INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072153Z - 072300Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT A SEWD MOVING
   GRAVITY WAVE COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING SEWD ACROSS NWRN TX HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
   BACKBUILDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO S-CNTRL AR AND
   N-CNTRL AR.  ADDITIONAL SWWD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
   AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
   
   AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH
   STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SPLITTING
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND SHOULD IT
   BECOME MORE APPARENT SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
   ESTABLISHED W OF WW 163 AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   33469340 33289303 32149291 31509284 30759375 30309476
   30629552 31379583 32259527

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NERN LA / NRN AND CNTRL MS / NRN AND
   CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 163...
   
   VALID 072212Z - 072345Z
   
   THROUGH 00Z...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME OF THEM
   SIGNIFICANT/ IS EXPECTED IN A SW-NE CORRIDOR FROM SE OF GLH TO NEAR
   TUP TO NE MSL.
   
   SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
   EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE ARKLAMS NEWD ACROSS NRN MS WITH SEVERAL
   STORM SPLITS...SUGGESTING UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.
   THIS NOTION IS CONFIRMED BY CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER DATA WHICH
   EXHIBIT RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WITH AROUND 60 KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2.  21Z JAN SOUNDING
   SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A LOW-LEVEL
   MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 10-11 G/KG...WHICH WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES
   OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THIS SOUNDING ALSO EXHIBITED A MODERATELY HIGH
   LCL /1800 M/ OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS
   OF AROUND 25 F.
   
   DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR TORNADOES WITH ALL RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW 163
   AREA.  COOLING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AFTER 00Z...SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FORT A FEW
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY INCREASE AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   34599268 35768601 32518609 31269275

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072238Z - 080015Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW
   166 BY 23Z.  SHOULD ONGOING STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...A WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A COLD POOL MAY BE
   ORGANIZING WITH ONGOING LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NE OF SSU TO W
   OF BLF.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER CNTRL VA REMAINS QUITE WARM EARLY
   THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  ASSOCIATED
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
   CONDITIONS /I.E. TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 30-40 DEGREES F/
   SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL MAY BE MAINTAINED E OF WW 166 WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DURATION OF THIS THREAT OWING TO THE FACT
   THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   WITH A RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED PRIOR TO AIR MASS
   STABILIZING.  HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT
   OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF WW AREA...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   38577933 38817877 38597776 37477788 36677825 36537882
   36697958

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
   
   VALID 080221Z - 080315Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST
   BEYOND 03Z.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
   OF THIS THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   AS OF 0205Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   LINE FROM LAWRENCE AND CABELL COUNTIES IN WRN WV SWWD TO WARREN AND
   SIMPSON COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KY MOVING SEWD AT 30-40 KTS.  RUC
   OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS TO
   THE W FROM WRN TN SWD INTO MS AND AL WITH AIR MASS ONLY MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN KY...TO THE N OF ONGOING STORMS OVER ERN TN.
   
   CURRENT JKL VWP INDICATES THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY
   SHEARED WITH 50 KT WSWLY WINDS AT .5 KM INCREASING TO 70 KTS AT 5
   KM.  THEREFORE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AS
   THEY MOVE THROUGH NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS.
   
   THIS THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   38577933 38817877 38597776 37477788 36677825 36537882
   36697958

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1016 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA / NRN AND CNTRL MS / NRN AND CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 169...
   
   VALID 080316Z - 080445Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF WW AREA
   THROUGH 04-05Z.  IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
   EXIST FROM JUST SW OF MSL EWD THROUGH HSV...EVENTUALLY INTO FAR NERN
   AL.  FARTHER TO THE W...A CONVECTIVE LINE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
   MORE SW-NE ORIENTED OVER THE MS DELTA SWWD INTO N-CNTRL
   LA...SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM GLH TO
   GWO AND EVENTUALLY SWD TO I-20 OVER W-CNTRL MS.
   
   AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SW-NE ORIENTED
   CONVECTIVE SHIELD FROM N-CNTRL LA ACROSS NRN MS...NWRN AL INTO
   MIDDLE AND ERN TN.  SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
   LARGER COMPLEX...THE MOST INTENSE OF WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER LAWRENCE
   AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL AL.  KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT /AS
   SAMPLED BY BHM VWP/ REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED OWING TO 50-60 KT SWLY
   WINDS AT 1 KM WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-400 M2/S2.  00Z BHM OBSERVED
   AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT INFLOW AIR MASS MAY BE
   SLIGHTLY CAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THOUGH ONGOING
   INTENSE UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE SUCCESSFULLY OVERCOMING ANY CIN.
   
   EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT LAWRENCE/MORGAN COUNTY SUPERCELL TAKES IT
   VERY CLOSE TO HSV BY 330Z...AND TO NEAR THE AL/GA STATE LINE BY
   430-05Z.
   
   FARTHER TO THE W...CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED FROM
   TALLAHATCHIE AND LEFLORE COUNTIES IN NWRN MS SWWD TO WEST CARROLL
   PARISH IN NERN MS.  SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...THIS CONVECTION
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORMAL TO 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOW OR LEWP ECHO EVOLUTION AND
   A RESULTANT INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   33469206 35608530 32858543 30759199

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 167...
   
   VALID 080355Z - 080530Z
   
   THROUGH 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS
   CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.
   
   A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE HAS RAPIDLY EVOLVED OVER THE PAST
   HALF HOUR ALONG COLD FRONT FROM S-CNTRL AR SWWD INTO SERN TX /SE OF
   LFK/.  CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR
   MASS ACROSS LA REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 60S.  MOREOVER...WINNFIELD LA PROFILER SHOWS THAT AMBIENT
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 50-60 KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2.
   
   GIVEN THE PROMINENT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG FRONT...IT APPEARS
   THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
   STORMS CONTINUE SEWD AT 30-35 KTS.  HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OR LEWP
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   32979447 33599173 30589174 29959457

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN / WRN AND CNTRL KY / FAR NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
   
   VALID 080405Z - 080600Z
   
   LATEST DATA SHOW COMPLEX SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ATTM
   OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL.  COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW ACROSS ERN AR IS
   INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO SEWD ACCELERATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF
   WRN AR UPPER VORT.  SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXTEND GENERALLY ENE FROM THE
   LOW...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FOR SEVERE PURPOSES NOW
   NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME SRN KY.
   
   CONTINUED E/SE MOTION OF AR VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
   COOLING/ASCENT SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN FAR SRN KY/NW TN.
   OTHERS MAY ALSO FORM SOMEWHAT LATER SWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO WRN
   TN.
   
   AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   AND OTHER MODES OF SUSTAINED STORMS.  THE PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
   STRONG THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AT LOWER LEVELS...THE
   OBSERVED DATA AS WELL AS MODEL FORECAST WINDS SHOW EVIDENCE OF
   CONVECTIVE MODIFICATION AND BACK-VEER PATTERNS WITH HEIGHT.  THESE
   TENDENCIES SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN WW 170...ESPECIALLY IN SW TN
   AND NW MS.  NEVERTHELESS...WITH APPROACH OF UPPER VORT...A THREAT
   FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
   SATURDAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   36469030 35229040 33999025 34728802 35748515 37078497
   38268533

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WV/SOUTHWEST VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...168...
   
   VALID 080406Z - 080500Z
   
   PRIMARY SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SEVERE WATCHES 166/168 ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA.
   OTHERWISE WATCHES 166/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
   05Z.
   
   STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS SEVERE WATCHES 166/168 ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST VA IN AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF BLACKSBURG AND ROANOKE.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG/SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE REINFORCED
   BOUNDARY...WITH AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTLY FEED STILL IMPINGING ON THIS
   BOUNDARY. SIMILAR TO CURRENT TRENDS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL
   REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH REMAINDER OF THE
   NIGHT...AND SEVERE WATCHES 166/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT/BY
   SCHEDULED 05Z EXPIRATIONS ACCORDINGLY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...
   
   37658164 38037971 37387842 36707865 36637983 36748121
   37048190

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 169...
   
   VALID 080730Z - 080900Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 169.
   THREAT MAY SPILL S OF WW WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REQUIRING NEW WW
   ACROSS SRN AL AND PERHAPS SERN MS.
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW
   CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY/LA. RAOB FROM JACKSON MS AT 06Z REVEALS
   CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.  THOUGH
   CAPPING REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH SWD EXTENT -- AS CONFIRMED BY LIMIT TO
   SWD EXTENSION OF STORMS ALONG FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT
   MAY SPILL SWD OUT OF WW --- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN AL S OF WW.
   FURTHER...STORMS MAY NOT COMPLETELY VACATE WW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AL BY 09Z -- WHEN WW IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE.
   THEREFORE...NEW WW COULD BE NEEDED FROM SRN PORTIONS OF WW 169 SWD
   INTO PARTS OF SRN MS/SRN AL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   31189195 32759033 34578547 32038519 30619030 30789198