Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

No change to the relativly normal weather that is expected in PR for the next few days with the usual afternoon showers in the interior and a few at night.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND WILL TRY TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE...TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL STILL COMBINE
EACH DAY...TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR THROUGH 15/22Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS. IN ADDITION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 40 30
STT 86 76 86 78 / 10 20 20 40

[Macrocane]

Very wet days are ahead for Central America a broad low is developing in the region and is interacting with the monsoon trough:

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on May 14 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 27°C (811°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.4°C (48.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.5°C (58.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.7°C (62.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.4°C (93.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.7°C (83.7°F) Coolest since April 6
Boquete, Panama 26.6°C (77.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another day of afternoon showers caused by diurnal heating.It looks like a dry period will arrive on the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS TIME UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
UNDER ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AT 16/12Z AND
16/18Z STILL INDICATE ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...AND INTERESTINGLY THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 16/12Z IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY 15/12Z. SINCE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE 0-6 KM AVERAGE WIND MAKING
IT MORE EAST SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE
DRYING THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY. STARTING ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS
START A DRYING TREND THAT TAKE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.85
INCHES ON SUNDAY TO 1.14 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND A STRONG CAP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WE
WOULD HAVE DRY AND WARM DAYS AHEAD OF US. FOR THAT REASON...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE LOW 90S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM SUNDAY TO THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SOMEWHAT
OVER PR AND THE USVI. SCT SHWRS WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN PR BUT TAF
SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR EXCEPT TNCM AND TKPK WHERE PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL OCCUR. MVFR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ AT
TIMES AFT 16/17Z. EXPECT TSTMS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 16/17Z
INTERIOR PR SPREADING NW. LLVL WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME ESE-SE 10-20 KT.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO
7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT TODAY AT 9 AM UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 30 30 30 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 20 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

Impressive capture related to "the story" of the giant barracuda of Guadeloupe who caused fear and nasty injuries in the butterfly island. Read it carefully, this thing absolutely awesome ! Be aware islanders especially if you're a swimmer...

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 170294.php

Gosier

A barracuda of 11.5 kg fished near the islet

Harry MAPOLIN France-Antilles Guadeloupe16.05.2012

This diver meet of barracudas in the area and off the tip of the castles, but for him, it is taking more low water. (Gerald Sylvestre)

"It is a solitary old male about 7 years," says Julien Tixier, submarine Hunter that has out of the water a large barracuda, yesterday morning, not far from the islet of Gosier.

Julien Tixier, firefighter Sainte-Anne, great nature lovers and underwater Hunter, is confident of having the skin of this famous barracuda which sowed both fears among swimmers in the range of the dacha. The beast about 1.50 m and weighs 11.5 kg. He made this decision yesterday morning, not far from the islet of Gosier, but do not see this as a sporting feat, given the low depth of the waters where the fish was caught. "I I picked it for my Doudou making the crossing to the islet of Gosier at least two times per week, but who has a great fear since of bathers were attacked by fish in the area", said the Hunter.

In two years of practice of diving in this portion of sea, it has already had ten barracudas in the same edge, but it is for him particularly.

"MOST AT RISK OF SE ATTACKS BY A DOG".
"I have a about 10 kg two weeks ago, but I just hunt is exceptional." It is a solitary, about seven years old male. His head was full of parasites. And on the disposition of its teeth, with a tooth, this makes me think the injury I had seen on the chest of a swimmer, near a hotel. »

Human is not made known in City Hall. "I've heard of a premium but it doesn't interest me." Can give to an association that wants to democratize the practice of sea. I would like that this phobia created by attack of the fish is fading. It is damage, especially for young people, to live on an island and to be afraid of water because of this. "There is more likely to be attacked by a dog on the street by a fish in the water", he argues.

Indeed many him had discouraged to hunt in this water to avoid any encounter with Barracuda, but this young firefighter is so in love with scuba diving that these implementation-in-custody have never dissuaded him.

"It's as if I was told that there were birds in the air, or animals on Earth." "It is quite normal that there are fish in the water," continues Julien Tixier.

Moreover it recognizes that there are many categories of fish between the beach of the dacha and the islet of Gosier. The presence of vessels in anchorage near the islet is the main reason for this marine impressive. The hulls of the boats are small fish which become larger baits. At the time where swimmers were injured in this area, the representatives of the city had explained the presence of this type of fish by the presence of these vessels in waters are not the municipal jurisdiction.

This fish will be not consumed, because of the risk of contamination by ciguatera and, as is often the case, this Hunter has cut his to bait for its nets.


-The first attacks in 2010

In le Gosier Town Hall, it was clarified that the municipality had not been barracuda bonus. It was a collective of fishermen of the gullet which had launched the idea. Since then, a fisherman who had made an extraordinary decision has affected the premium proposed by the collective of the fishermen.

In the space of a few months, it had noted five injured swimmers in the waters of the gullet between hotels and the islet. The first victim, a child of ten years which nnageait close to the edge was seriously injured at the foot.

Then a young man was attack while he swam to the islet. The presence of a bright Medal on his neck had been identified, because fish are attracted by all that glitters.

Near a hotel in the same area, a swimmer was injured in the chest. No prohibition of bathing has never been taken. For some time there was more was victims of fish in these waters.

[msbee]

hi Gusty
speaking of barracuda, did you see this video? Amazing!!

http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/blog/335 ... into+boat/

[cycloneye]

Very interesting information about the Barracudas.

Moisture will increase in the next few days in PR so more flood advisories for sure will be up. Very dry air will arrive early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
ELONGATED RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCH...
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREA OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT NEARLY TWO INCHES
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE PROVIDES ENOUGH VENTILATION. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH HALF OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MID/UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH 16/22Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND
TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJMZ. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 7
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 30 40 50 40
STT 86 78 87 78 / 20 50 50 40

[Gustywind]

hi Gusty
speaking of barracuda, did you see this video? Amazing!!

http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/blog/335 ... into+boat/

No, but glad to see you link.

[Gustywind]

Here we are: Guadeloupe in yellow alert since 3PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. A pretty large area of thunderstorms is crossing Guadeloupe.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

[Gustywind]

METEO. Guadeloupe in yellow for heavy rains and thunderstorms
franceantilles.fr16.05.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 170368.php

A large thunderstorm area approached the Caribbean arc this afternoon causing heavy rains. This unstable time will persist until tomorrow afternoon with periods of calm and storm-storm episodes, the stormy being increased risk end of the night and tomorrow at midday.

A large thunderstorm area approached the Caribbean arc this afternoon, causing heavy rains which have already given up to 70 litres of water per square metre in 3 hours in the great-Fonds, Les Abymes and Morne-to-l'Eau, 30 litres of water per metre square Gosier and between Capesterre and Trois-Rivières.
The most active part of this stormy zone should remain on the Atlantic close, but stormy grain lines may still to detach and come through the Guadeloupe archipelago as was the case this afternoon. This unstable time will persist until tomorrow afternoon with periods of calm and storm-storm episodes, the stormy being increased risk end of the night and tomorrow at midday.
The stormy showers expected are generally not durable, but by their intensity, they can generate ad hoc and temporary, as well as the problems of traffic floods and overflows. Turbulent also involves a risk of lightning strikes.

[cycloneye]

This is a reminder to us that Hurricane Season is almost upon us as NHC introduced two Tropical Waves.



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER W AFRICA ALONG 15N9W TO
7N9W CAUSING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS W AFRICA. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OVER E
ATLC WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N50W TO 4N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KTS.
WHILE THE WAVE WAS NOT EASILY IDENTIFIED OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC
WATERS...UPPER AIR TIME SECTIONS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATE
THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST AROUND 10/1200 UTC. THE
CURRENT SPEED IS BASED OFF THIS ESTIMATION. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS AS WELL AS TO THE W OF THE AXIS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE
AXIS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FARTHER W NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAN THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY INTERACT AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST WED MAY 16 2012

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...US VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS MOIST
AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE ONCE AGAIN WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED. MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION.

[Macrocane]

The highs have been cooler than normal in Central America because the last 2 days have been very cloudy.

The temperatures in Central America, May 15 2012

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Honduras. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.4°C (48.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.4°C (61.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Nicaragua and Panama. Cooler than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.1°C (93.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.8°C (78.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected for PR today thru Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST THU MAY 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ELONGATED RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS BRINGING A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATED
VALUES OF OVER 2.0 INCHES JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED PUERTO RICO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IS LIKELY WITH
THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK BUT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO MID WEEK. EVEN THOUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IT WILL BE DRIER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR EXCEPTIONS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 17/17Z AND 17/22Z. LLVL
WINDS SE 10 TO 20 KT. WINDS NW 35-60 KT BTWN 35-50 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS ARE PICKING UP QUITE A BIT
SO MOST OF THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES HAVE PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS FOR WINDS BETWEEN 18 AND 21 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 77 / 50 50 40 40
STT 86 77 88 78 / 50 40 40 40

[Gustywind]

METEO

Rise in yellow vigilance for heavy rains and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr17.05.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 170368.php

A large storm-thunderstorm area addressed CRA Caribbean Wednesday afternoon, causing heavy rains and accompanied by thunder. Already there was up to 70 mm of water in the great Fund as well as on the relief, 50 to 60 mm on the South Basse-Terre and the Leeward coast.

Cloudy packets continue to cross our islands and issue yet showers that can be at times accompanied by thunder and good intensity. Even if these showers are becoming less frequent, they evolve in a still unstable atmosphere conducive to the strengthening of the rainy activity, which explains the maintenance of this
Yellow vigilance. This unstable time will persist today with periods of calm and stormy episodes.
A large storm-thunderstorm area addressed CRA Caribbean Wednesday afternoon, causing heavy rains and accompanied by thunder. Already there was up to 70 mm of water in the great Fund as well as on the relief, 50 to 60 mm on the South Basse-Terre and the Leeward coast.
The stormy showers expected are generally not durable, but by their intensity, they can generate ad hoc and temporary, as well as the problems of traffic floods and overflows. Turbulent also involves a risk of lightning strikes.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST THU MAY 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST AREA LIES BETWEEN
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROVIDING AN INFLOW OF
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS BRINGING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THE CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5-3.0" IN PARTS OF AGUADILLA...MOCA AND SAN
SEBASTIAN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN PREVAILED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC/CIMMS PWAT
ANALYSIS. MODELS SHOW THAT THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
FAVOR THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH GOOD VENTILATION
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER
MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ISLANDS DURG THE REST OF THE AFTN. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR AND LCL
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OR PR UNTIL 17/22Z. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ALSO PSBL EN ROUTE BTW ERN
PR AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE AND NOT WIDESPREAD. GENERAL WIND FLOW FM SE BTW
15-20 KTS BLO 15K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY AT 15 TO 21
KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WHERE SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS EVERY DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 77 88 / 50 60 40 40
STT 77 86 78 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 PM AST THU MAY 17 2012

.UPDATE...RATHER ACTIVE EVENING AGAIN...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP
UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

[Gustywind]

METEO

No more threats of heavy rains, back to green

franceantilles.fr17.05.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 170368.php


The extensive storm-storm system moves slowly towards the East Atlantic. We are still a flow of moist and variable Alizé in low layer. The threshold of yellow vigilance is more reached but we are not from a good thunderstorm showers located during the next few days.

This episode of rain and thunderstorms generated in 24 hours by location a few good showers or about 100-120 mm in the mountains, 50 to 80 mm on the north low - Earth, plain and near the Pointoise agglomeration.
The extensive storm-storm system moves slowly towards the East Atlantic. We are still a flow of moist and variable Alizé in low layer. The threshold of yellow vigilance is more reached but we are not from a good thunderstorm showers located during the next few days. Be still careful....

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A mainly weekend with scattered showers is expected for PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST FRI MAY 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THESE SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING
PUERTO RICO HAVE DIMINISHED AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN.
SATELLITE BLENDED TPW IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BAND OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST AND NOW IS OVER PUERTO RICO AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST.

THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MORE NUMEROUS AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL
ALSO OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN OF SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...THEN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...UNTIL MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE A BIT AND MOISTURE WILL
START TO DECREASE...LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MOMENTS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS TJBQ SITE DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18/17Z...VCTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ AT THAT TIME AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AST
FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. WINDS WILL BE
UP TO 21 KNOTS AND WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST THE
LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 87 77 / 50 50 40 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon.After this weekend that will bring scattered showers to PR,a drying trend will start early next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST FRI MAY 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LEEWARDS THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A PREVAILING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENT PATTERN IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THEREBY INDUCE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL HOWEVER BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC
HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY STREAM
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY
INDUCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

OVERALL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AS TRADE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS SUGGEST
INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH MODERATE CAP NEAR 700
MILLIBARS BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL DRYING
IS STILL EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LESSER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 18/23Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND TJBQ...TJSJ...TISX AND TNCM. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 87 / 30 30 20 30
STT 77 87 78 88 / 30 30 20 40