Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Hazy and dry weather is expected this weekend in the Eastern Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI JUN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY. AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUST WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
IN FACT...TJSJ 01/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.16
INCHES AND THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES OF MORE
THAN 2.00 INCHES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING RAPIDLY TO 1.5 INCHES OR LESS TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND...AS AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH
SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. LATEST
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SAHARAN DUST BY TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE BY LATE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT VERY HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT FEW PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 01/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 01/16Z-01/22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
TJMZ AND TJBQ. LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 25K FEET...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 0 10
STT 88 77 88 77 / 30 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

2012 Hurricane Season starts officially today

Ok fellow Caribbean and Central American friends,here we are on June 1rst that marks the start of the 2012 hurricane season. Let's be vigilant and see if this season,the islands and parts of Central America will be threatened by storms. Let's prepare for the worse but hoping for the best. Here is the Tropical Weather Outlook.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALBERTO AL BAIR- TOE LESLIE LEHZ- LEE
BERYL BER- RIL MICHAEL MY- KUHL
CHRIS KRIS NADINE NAY DEEN-
DEBBY DEH- BEE OSCAR AHS- KUR
ERNESTO ER NES- TOH PATTY PAT- EE
FLORENCE FLOOR- ENCE RAFAEL RAH FAH ELL-
GORDON GOR- DUHN SANDY SAN- DEE
HELENE HEH LEEN- TONY TOH- NEE
ISAAC EYE- ZIK VALERIE VAH- LUR EE
JOYCE JOYSS WILLIAM WILL- YUM
KIRK KURK

THE ATLANTIC SEASON HAS ALREADY GOTTEN OFF TO A QUICK START...WITH
TROPICAL STORMS ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1908 THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES
DEVELOPED BEFORE 1 JUNE. TROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH CAME ASHORE
NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY ON 28 MAY...IS THE STRONGEST PRE-JUNE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1
AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS
HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED
IS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER
CASE.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Statement from NWS San Juan

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 AM AST FRI JUN 1 2012

...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON...

THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A NEAR
NORMAL ONE. SEASONAL PREDICTIONS FROM NOAA CALL FOR A NEAR NORMAL
SEASON AT THIS TIME. NOAA`S FORECAST PREDICTS 9 TO 15 TROPICAL STORMS...4
TO 8 HURRICANES AND 1 TO 3 MAJOR HURRICANES. THE HISTORICAL LONG
TERM AVERAGE IS ABOUT 12 TROPICAL STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 3
MAJOR HURRICANES.

PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL YEARS IN WITNESSING FEW MAJOR HURRICANES. IN RECENT
MEMORY...MAJOR HURRICANES GEORGES IN 1998 AND LUIS AND MARILYN IN
1995...AFFECTED PARTS OR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND FLOOD DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE BIG ISLAND OF
PUERTO RICO HAS NOT HAD A DIRECT HIT FROM A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE FOR OVER 70 YEARS. THAT IS ABOUT THREE GENERATIONS THAT
THESE ISLANDS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 4 OR
5).

ACCORDING TO NOAA RECORDS...THE HURRICANE SEASONS SPANNING
1995-2011 COMPRISED ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS OF HURRICANE
ACTIVITY IN HISTORY. MOST HURRICANE RESEARCHERS AND SCIENTISTS
BELIEVE THAT WE ARE IN AN ERA OF INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY. THIS
ALSO MEANS INCREASED PROBABILITY OF LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE
CARIBBEAN REGION.

SEASONS WITH NORMAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AVERAGE ONE OR TWO
LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND ONE
IN THE CARIBBEAN.

AS NOTED...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FROM 1995-2011 HAS BEEN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES OF 14 TROPICAL STORMS...8
HURRICANES AND 4 MAJOR HURRICANES...THE REAL PROBLEM IS NOT HOW
MANY TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES DEVELOP...BUT WHERE THESE
STORMS TRACK. DURING THE LAST FOURTEEN YEARS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO HAVE RECEIVED THE UNWELCOME VISITS OF HURRICANE
HUGO IN 1989...LUIS AND MARILYN IN 1995...BERTHA AND HORTENSE IN
1996...GEORGES IN 1998...JOSE AND LENNY IN 1999...DEBBY IN
2000...JEANNE IN 2004 AND OLGA IN 2007 JUST TO NAME A FEW. IN 2011
TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MOVING
OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND PUERTO RICO. ALSO IN 2011...TWO
OTHER SYSTEMS ALSO AFFECTED THE AREA...TROPICAL STORMS EMILY AND
MARIA...THIS STORMS ALSO BROUGHT MAJOR FLOODING TO PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE SPAWNED DISASTERS OCCUR EVEN IN YEARS WITH NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL ACTIVITY. HURRICANES DONNA OF 1960...AND DAVID AND
FREDERIC OF 1979...ARE REMINDERS OF THE DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS THAT CAN OCCUR DURING A SEASON OF NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
ACTIVITY.

NEW SATELLITES AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ALLOW US TO MONITOR AND
TRACK DISTURBANCES EMERGING OUT OF AFRICA OR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS...WELL BEFORE THEY REACH OUR LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BE PREPARED WELL IN ADVANCE.

LETS USE THE MONTH OF JUNE TO PREPARE OR REVISE OUR FAMILY EMERGENCY
PLAN...PREPARE A DISASTER SUPPLIES KIT AND STOCK UP ON NECESSARY
NON-PERISHABLE FOOD SUPPLIES.

SAFEGUARDING THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO IS A TEAM EFFORT. PREPARATION AND COORDINATION BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE COMMONWEALTH OF PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT (PREMA)...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TERRITORIAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY (VITEMA)...STATE AND MUNICIPAL
GOVERNMENTS...UNIVERSITIES AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR ARE CRITICAL TO
MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES. EVERYONE MUST BE PREPARED.


$$

[cycloneye]

Dry weekend ahead with very hazy conditions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST FRI JUN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CONSIDERABLY AS WELL AS BRINGING HAZY
AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT...A DRIER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NAAPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY. TODAY...THE HEAT INDEX WENT
UP TO AS MUCH AS 107 DEGREES IN PONCE AND 100 IN SAN JUAN WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE REACHING 91 DEGREES
IN PONCE AND 93 DEGREES IN SAN JUAN. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...SATURDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST AND SUNDAY HAS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO BUT
WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

AFTER THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY...A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT
01/22Z. SOUTHEAST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY UNTIL 01/22Z
THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 0 10 10
STT 77 88 77 89 / 10 10 0 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry and hazy weather will continue for the next couple of days in the Eastern Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT JUN 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...VERY DRIER...HAZY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY...AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND INDUCING ALSO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR
THIS MORNING. AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES OF
1.5 INCHES OR LESS UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT FEW
PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM...ALTHOUGH
SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS
FLYING AREA. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 0 0 10 0
STT 88 77 89 77 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT JUN 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURE WITH HEAT INDEX IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
SAHARAN DUST TO DECREASE ON MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND WEATHER
RETURNING TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AS THE
SAHARAN DUST KEEPS AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN AS EXPECTED. NAAPS
MODEL SHOWS THE HIGHER SURFACE DUST CONCENTRATION TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT US UNTIL MONDAY BUT WITH SOME...BUT NOT MUCH...CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

STARTING ON TUESDAY...A MORE NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN MUNICIPALITIES.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CAUSE HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BUT VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. HOWEVER...WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
VISIBILITIES AT A COUPLE OF TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY TISX...
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO LESS THAN 6 MILES IN HAZE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 0 10 0 10
STT 77 89 77 88 / 0 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another warm,dry and hazy day is expected today for PR and most of the Eastern Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SUN JUN 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DRY...HAZY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INDUCING WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS.
AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.
WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES OF 1.5
INCHES OR LESS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEREFORE NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
FEW PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS
FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN 6 TO 8
SM...BUT SOMETIMES MAY REACH 5 SM. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AT AROUND 10 TO 20
KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 78 / 0 0 10 10
STT 89 77 88 77 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

NW Cuba Flooding Event

Different from what most of the Caribbean is enduring with dry and hazy weather,in parts of Cuba flooding is occuring:

Heavy rain in northwest Cuba caused flooding throughout Mayabeque province and forced the evacuation of hundreds of people. Torrential rain began early this morning and continued for six hours. Flood waters were up to people's waists in some areas. About 100 homes were flooded and 500 people had to move to higher ground. Many roads have been washed out and forecasters say more rain's in store for the area tonight and tomorrow.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?page ... -35307-CUB

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN JUN 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAIN AIR LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MON AS IT PUSHES WWD AND AWAY. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD MID WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK THEN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK PRETTY
DISMAL AS AREA REMAINS INITIALLY UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER THEN
UNDER A BUILDING STRONG MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU
HOWEVER MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. IT WILL ALSO HAVE TO FIGHT AGAINST STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MASSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OVERALL...HOT AND DRY NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE RELIEF TO
THE HEAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK JUNE 11...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES CUTOFF ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC BUT AT THE SAME TIME MODELS INDICATE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE
AS STRONG AS THE ONE JUST EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. DUE TO SAHARAN DUST...VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 5 OR 6
SM...ESPECIALLY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 04/00Z. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES OF 5SM ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 04/10 BUT WERE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUAL CONCENTRATION
OF THE SAHARAN DUST AT THAT TIME. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS...DECREASING AFTER 04/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT BY MID WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COMPARISON OF MODIS IMAGERY BETWEEN MAY 26 AND
JUNE 02 INDICATE DRAMATIC DRYING IS OCCURRING ACROSS LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. THIS AS A RESULT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY/DESSICATE FUELS NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND INCREASE THE PROBABILITY
OF IGNITION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 88 / 0 0 0 10
STT 79 79 79 79 / 0 0 0 0

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are the temperatures in Central America for June 2 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.2°C (46.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.7°C (65.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.9°C (44.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.7°C (62.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. Cooler than normal in Belize.

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F) The day before it was 33°C (91°F) the warmest since April 21 2012
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.2°C (72.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.1°C (95.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More dry and hazy weather is expected today for the islands of the Eastern Carribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST MON JUN 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS...STILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED LATE EVENING
OR EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWER...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS ESPECIALLY
EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE
BTW 6 TO 8 SM. TJSJ 04/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 15
KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 90 78 / 0 0 10 20
STT 87 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK
AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING
HAZY SKIES...AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY...SOME
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
OROCOVIS...JAYUYA...AND UTUADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE
MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS FEATURE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY DRIER AIR...IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...NO WX EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 89 / 0 0 20 10
STT 77 88 80 90 / 0 10 30 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More dry weather is expected today for PR. On thursday,the tropical wave now just east of Windwards will increase a little the moisture here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST TUE JUN 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD
TO SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE BTW 6 TO 8
SM. TJSJ 05/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5K FEET...BECOMING EAST NORTHEASTERLY BUT
STILL LIGHT FROM 5K-30K AND THEN NORTHERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 21
KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 0 20 10 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 10 30 20 40

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The good news is that the saharan dust is leaving the area,but the bad news is that another episode will come by the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST TUE JUN 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST EPISODE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH 2 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED AT LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 93 DEGREES. THIS WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ANYTIME SOON. SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW...COMBINED WITH HAZY SKIES...AND A VERY STABLE AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SAHARAN DUST WHICH CONTINUES AFFECTING
THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
TROPICAL WAVE PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE..SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

IN THE MID TO LONG TERM...SATELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A BIG
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...EXTENDING EAST FOR FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS AREA OF DUST
AND DRY WEATHER...IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND USVI/LEEWARD TERMINALS BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 5SM OR 6SM DUST HAZE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 88 81 90 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A change to more moisture will occur today in PR as a weak wave moves thru,But the return of dry weather with haze will come by thursday and beyond.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST WED JUN 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TROPICAL WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY. AFTER
TODAY...MORE SAHARAN DUST IS ON THE WAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE. THESE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

GFS INDICATES THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...FROM 1.26 INCHES AS OBSERVED BY THE 06/00Z
SOUNDING TO 1.94 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING
VALID AT 07/00Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE
INCREASES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AND WEAK WINDS
ALOFT SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SEE WHAT THE 06/12Z SOUNDING OBSERVES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES TODAY AND TONIGHT...DRIER AIR MOVES IN ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST. SO STARTING TOMORROW AND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWING...A DRY PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY...MUCH LIKE
WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE WINDS
APPEAR TO BE MORE EASTERLY AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTERLY. GFS MODEL SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OR IN OVERALL INSTABILITY UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ALONG 58 WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA MAINLY OVER TKPK/TNCM...TISX/TIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AS IN AND AROUND TJBQ BTW 06/17Z AND 06/22Z.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 81 90 81 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST WED JUN 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...HAS
NOT BRING TOO MUCH TO THE LOCAL AREA. VERY DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE KEPT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO MINIMAL WITH
ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
STAYED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ONCE AGAIN OVER PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE REACHED 92 DEGREES AT THE LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS IS ONE DEGREE SHY FROM THE RECORD OF
93 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 2006. ALSO...IS THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90S AT THE AIRPORT.

THIS HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHEAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 07/12Z. SOME VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJBQ
THROUGH AT LEAST 06/22Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 89 / 20 20 10 10
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather returns for the next few days to PR with Saharan Dust after the wave moved thru yesterday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST THU JUN 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW WEST SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOW THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED PAST THE LOCAL
AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STARTING TO GO DOWN AND DRIER
AIR IS ONCE AGAIN MOVING IN. NAAPS MODEL INDICATES THAT A SMALL
AMOUNT OF DUST WILL BE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...HOWEVER...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
VISIBILITIES.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY
SHOW A CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTHERLY AT
07/06Z TO WESTERLY AT 08/06Z WITH NO CHANGE IN SPEED...KEEPING IT
AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE WEAKER WINDS...COMBINED WITH A DECREASE
IN MOISTURE AND A GOOD CAP SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING.

WIND ON THE OTHER HAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 90S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND IN THE MID 90S ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...MUCH LIKE IT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY IN
MAYAGUEZ WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED 95 DEGREES.

IN THE LONG TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DOMINATED
BY A DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS KEEP INSISTING ON AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY TO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE
FLOWS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. SOME STATIONS WILL
REPORT INTERMITTENT MVFR DUE TO CIGS...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VFR UNTIL ABOUT 07/17Z. AT THAT TIME ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING TJBQ.
LLVL WINDS ARE E-ESE 10 TO 20 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 93 78 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 80 89 81 / 20 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

Fair weather conditions even hazy continue for the next several days in the Lesser Antilles...

[cycloneye]

Fair weather conditions even hazy continue for the next several days in the Lesser Antilles...

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Hi Gusty. Here so far not a single drop of rain has fallen so far on June in San Juan.And it has been over the 90's as maximun temperatures on all the past days of this month. And it looks like it will continue this way for the next few days.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU JUN 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS
HIGH AS 99 DEGREES AT MAYAGUEZ AIRPORT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO END ANYTIME SOON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH A
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K
FEET...PROMISE TO MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A SLIGHT RELIEF IN THIS HOT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...WHICH HOPEFULLY...WILL
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 08/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 10 10 10 10
STT 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 10 10

[Gustywind]

Fair weather conditions even hazy continue for the next several days in the Lesser Antilles...

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Hi Gusty. Here so far not a single drop of rain has fallen so far on June in San Juan.And it has been over the 90's as maximun temperatures on all the past days of this month. And it looks like it will continue this way for the next few days.

Hi Cycloneye . Waouw, that's surprising , 2012 is always full of suprises! Very hot too here last days we were approaching 33, 5° C in some areas, too hot for June!