Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A good weekend with dry and with haze is expected for PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST FRI JUN 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 8 DAYS. MID LEVEL AIR IS DRY UNTIL TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE MONDAY PRECEDED BY AN AREA
OF DUST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE
EXPERIENCING SOME OF THE DRIEST CONDITIONS IN SEVERAL YEARS AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA AND IS PRODUCING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST. A RECORD HIGH AT SAN
JUAN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AS THAT IS 96 DEGREES
RECORDED IN 1975. BUT VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT AND FIRE DANGER IS
INCREASING. MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE WRF IS DRIEST WITH SOME SPRINKLES
FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO AND LITTLE ELSE...WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS IN LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL AREA REGISTERING
AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER INCH ON THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND
EVEN THOUGH NO RAIN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND
CONTINUED INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ABOVE 850 MB. A TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD BRING SOME LIMITED RELIEF FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
THAT SHOULD BRING SOME INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. 0-2K FEET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY
FROM 5 KNOTS AT THE SFC TO 20 KNOTS AT 2K FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT THE SURFACE AFTER 08/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET IN OPEN WATERS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOCAL SEAS MAY BE HIGHER WHERE WINDS FUNNEL
AROUND THE ISLANDS...AND WINDS WILL REACH UP T0 18 TO 21 KNOTS AT
TIMES TODAY...DECREASING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC RETREATS SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 92 78 / 0 10 0 10
STT 89 79 89 80 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It has been hot,hot,hot in PR and I am sure in many of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean. This came out this morning.

OF NOTE...AT 1030 AM AST...THE TEMPERATURE AT LMM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REACHED 90S WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS IS THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90S OR MORE AT THE AIRPORT.

And here is this afternoon's discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST FRI JUN 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE REGION IN A DRY AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TO
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH LEADING EDGE NOW
NEAR 40 WEST. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS THIS WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING TRADES
WILL CONTINUE BRING SHALLOW PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...HOWEVER A FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIMIT THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSE
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY INDUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AT LEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE THE TRADE WIND FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREAFTER ANOTHER DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED AREA OF SAHARAN DUST/SAL WILL QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER TIST AND TISX THROUGH AT LEAST 09/12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 89 / 10 0 10 10
STT 79 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 10

[jasons2k]

I know that has got to feel hot with the humid air! It's getting to be summer here to and it's very tropical-like when we get flow from the Caribbean.

We were down in Grand Cayman, Montego Bay, and Cozumel a few weeks ago. The water down there is so beautiful.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry weather will continue today for PR and adjacent islands. Maybe some afternoon showers fall in interior PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SAT JUN 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING A
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND TO OUR NORTH FROM
THE HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A TROUGH OUT OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A JET WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL
MAINTAIN EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45 WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE...NOT YET OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS NOT EXPECTED
BEFORE THE FOLLOWING SUD NAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON NEXRAD RADAR
AND EVEN FEWER WERE NOTED OVER LAND. THESE TRACKED WEST OVER CEIBA
AND NAGUABO EARLIER THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTERLY THAN NOTED YESTERDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STABILITY IS GREATER AND MOISTURE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...INTENSE HEATING OVER LAND AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW
LOOKS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS MINIMAL
AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY HOMOGENEOUS UP THROUGH 22 KFT. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE FAIRLY GOOD LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. MOS HAS
BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES TOO LOW ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT WITH WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY UNTIL
MONDAY...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS ONLY 1 DEGREE ON THE NORTH COAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN...IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND A TURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...HAVE RAISED TEMPS ON THE NORTH COAST 2
DEGREES FOR A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES AT THE LMM AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.
TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND LOCAL
SHOWERS...BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY DUSTY AIR FROM
THE SAHARA. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING...BUT OTHERWISE THE OVERALL RAINFALL WILL BE
LIMITED IN NATURE...WITH SOME AREAS...INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...RECEIVING LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES. 0-2K FEET WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM 5 KNOTS AT THE SFC TO 15 KNOTS AT 2K
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT THE SURFACE
AFTER 09/12Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 09/16Z AND 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CATEGORY TODAY BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
6 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 79 / 10 10 10 10
STT 89 78 89 80 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

May Climate report for Puerto Rico/St Thomas and St Croix.

It was with plenty of rain on the first half of the month,but more drier weather prevailed on the last 10 days.And it was with normal to slightly above normal temperatures.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=may2012cr

[tropicana]

Dry Start to June 2012 across the Eastern Caribbean

June 1-9 2012 Rainfall totals:-

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 27.8mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 2.9mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 5.7mm
Castries, St Lucia 1.9mm
Canefield Airport Dominica 18.0mm
Melville Hall, Domincia 19.3mm
VC Bird, Antigua 8.1mm
West End, Anguilla 1.8mm
St Thomas VI trace
St Croix VI trace
San Juan PR trace

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Heavy showers and thunderstorm are over El Salvador tonight. You can see the IR image above and the radar in the Central part of the country below:



I will post some observations later today or tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK..AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...LOTS
OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 48 WEST IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE SHOWS AN AREA OF 20-25
PERCENT BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AMOUNTS UPSTREAM OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THIS PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS PWAT VALUES ARE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THIS HIGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE TAF PRD. GENERAL LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST AT 5-15 KTS BLO 20K FT. FEW-SCT PATCHES OF
LOW LVL CLD LYRS BTW 010-030K FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RGN FROM TIME
TO TIME IN THE PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY...
BUILDING TO 5 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 92 / 10 10 10 10
STT 79 86 80 87 / 10 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

One funnel cloud and one tornado were reported this afternoon in the western part of the country, that is very very unusual and I had never seen anything like that on land just a few waterspouts in previous years. 6 home were damaged because of the tornado according to some reports. These are the pictures:

[Macrocane]

These were the temperatures in Central America on June 8 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal in El Salvador, Honduras and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.9°C (49.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.2°C (57.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 11 2011
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.8°C (67.6°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 8 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.2°C (43.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.2°C (63.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.8°C (73.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.6°C (97.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.3°C (93.7°F) Warmest since April 30 2012
Boquete, Panama 25.4°C (77.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Showers will increase slightly today but much more on late Monday thru Tuesday as a Tropical Wave moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SUN JUN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL HOLD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE LOW WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF
NORTHWEST FLOW.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY EXCEPT DURING THE PASSAGES OF
THE TROPICAL WAVES TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER NOON ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINOR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED STEADILY OVER
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS SINCE 10/02Z WHILE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS SHIFTED DIRECTIONS FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM
SET TO CROSS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
10/17Z AND 11/02Z. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN THE LIFTED INDEX...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF DRIER AIR WILL CROSS
THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE THE RAMP-UP OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AFT 12/00Z. WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW...SHOWERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BETWEEN 12/00Z AND 13/00Z. A
RETURN TO A DRIER PATTERN AND SOME MORE SAHARAN DUST WILL FOLLOW
UNTIL SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
THUNDERSTORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITHOUT BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... VERY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER TJMZ...AND TJBQ BETWEEN 10/18Z AND 10/21Z...IN ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET WITH
WINDS AROUND OR JUST BELOW 18 KNOTS DURING THE WINDIEST PARTS OF
THE DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON MONDAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 10 0 10 30
STT 90 79 90 80 / 10 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN JUN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE PROMOTES AN
STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK..AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A
SMALL AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING PARTS OF PUERTO RICO..ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED STREAMERS
DOWNWIND OF THE SMALL ISLANDS AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OF EL YUNQUE
NATIONAL FOREST. THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED WEST OF EL YUNQUE
PRODUCED SOME RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF CAROLINA...TRUJILLO ALTO AND
SAN JUAN BUT THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.

SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE. THE PWAT ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED AN ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE
NEAR 56/57 WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. OPERATIONAL
MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TUESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A DRY AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS
OF 4 FEET OR LESS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 78 88 / 0 10 50 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 20 20 50 50

[Macrocane]

VIDEO OF TORNADO IN SANTA ANA, EL SALVADOR

Here's a video of yesterday's tornado :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmUDYCWj9xc&feature=share[/youtube]

[Macrocane]

This afternoon we have the same story as yesterday, first the IR and then a picture I took from my window as the storm approaches:

[cycloneye]

Wow,that rope mantained almost stationary there. And that is really bad weather there.Did it caused damage? Is not common to have those over there right?

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on June 9 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Near normal in El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.9°C (57.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.2°C (43.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.2°C (63.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador. Near normal in Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Panama.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.8°C (74.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.5°C (95.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.6°C (76.3°F)

[Macrocane]

Wow,that rope mantained almost stationary there. And that is really bad weather there.Did it caused damage? Is not common to have those over there right?

Yes, it's very uncommon . 6 homes have been reported damaged but fortunately no fatalities have occurred.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will move thru the Eastern Caribbean today bringing scattered showers to the islands,but no widespread rain is expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST MON JUN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. SATELITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS MOMENT...AND
IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DRY AIR...WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST. IN
FACT...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE ONLY FROM 1.5 INCHES TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES AS THE TROPICAL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR BEHIND THE WAVE...COMBINED WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...PROMISE TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION... TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME AND WILL PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 11/20Z AND 11/23Z WITH SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA. MVFR CONDS MAY OCCUR BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER. THE
WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE USVI AFT 12/04Z AND MUCH OF PR DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
PUERTO RICO MONDAY...SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN INTENSE HEATING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH A
STREAMER POSSIBLE OFF OF EL YUNQUE. LLVL WINDS E 10 TO 20 KT WILL
BECOME AFT 11/16Z EASTERLY NEAR THE SFC TO S 10-15 KT AT 10 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 10 30 40 40
STT 89 79 89 81 / 20 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST MON JUN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
AND BROAD TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT CONTINUE
WESTWARDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ALTHOUGH VERY
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST.

BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND...DRIER SAHARAN AIR WILL
QUICKLY FILTER IN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK. IN ADDITION...A WIND SURGE ACCOMPANYING THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER NOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS. FOR REST OF WORK WEEK AND THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOOKING FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS BUT
STILL EXPECT LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN ISOLATED SPOTS EACH DAY. NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHRA EN ROUTE TO THE LOCAL AREA BTW 11/22Z AND
12/08Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAY OCCUR IN PASSING SHRA. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE FA. LLVL
E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 30 40 40 10
STT 79 89 80 91 / 50 50 30 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No change to the dry and warm weather today and for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SAHARAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW BRUSHING THE COASTAL AREAS. A
VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL REGION.
THIS DRY AIR MASS...IN COMBINATION WITH A EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.
YESTERDAY THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED IN THE LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN WAS 92 DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 13/12Z FOR ALL TAF
SITES IN THE LEEWARD AND USVI. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES
IN PUERTO RICO THRU 12/16Z...AFT WHICH MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 13/02Z AND MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MAINLY
BTWN 12/18-21Z WITH ISOLD TSRA AND SCT SHRA. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 10
TO 15 KT UP TO 10 KFT...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY WINDS
BTWN 10-20 KFT 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 80 / 20 20 10 10
STT 89 80 91 82 / 20 20 10 20