Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Dry,Dry,Dry,Dry........... and very warm,very warm,very warmv,very warm are the dominant factors in PR for the next few days. Today the San Juan airport station went up to 94 degrees and that ties the record for this date.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND BROAD/DEEP TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW...AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN A DOMINANT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL PRODUCT...SUGGEST THAT
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
BUT WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DOMINANT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH LITTLE OR
NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 12/22Z. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 10 TO 15 KT UP TO 10 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 90 / 0 10 10 10
STT 80 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

Saturday tornado damaged 12 homes in Santa Ana and completely destroyed 2 more, fortunately there were no fatalities. This is an impressive video of the system :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CUuoh4y3T0[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Contrary to this dry and warm pattern that the NE Caribbean is going thru the opposite is occuring where Macrocane is in Central America as a wet pattern has established there and it looks like it will continue for the next few days.

[Gustywind]

Dry,Dry,Dry,Dry........... and very warm,very warm,very warmv,very warm are the dominant factors in PR for the next few days. Today the San Juan airport station went up to 94 degrees and that ties the record for this date.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND BROAD/DEEP TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW...AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN A DOMINANT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO INCREASE THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL PRODUCT...SUGGEST THAT
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
BUT WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DOMINANT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH LITTLE OR
NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 12/22Z. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 10 TO 15 KT UP TO 10 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 90 / 0 10 10 10
STT 80 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10

Oh boy Cycloneye that heat wave is pretty impressive. What a contrast compared to the impressive amounts of May. 2012 is surely the year of the surprises in store, let's hope that the hurricane season does not bring any surprises in terms of landfall or anything like that in Lesser or Greater Antilles. We will see, take care .

[Macrocane]

Contrary to this dry and warm pattern that the NE Caribbean is going thru the opposite is occuring where Macrocane is in Central America as a wet pattern has established there and it looks like it will continue for the next few days.

You're right cycloneye, we could even have a tropical storm in a couple of days that may increase the rains, and most of the models are in agreement:

[cycloneye]

Saturday tornado damaged 12 homes in Santa Ana and completely destroyed 2 more, fortunately there were no fatalities. This is an impressive video of the system :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CUuoh4y3T0[/youtube]

Impressive video. The good news is that no fatalities occured.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
948 PM AST TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ATLC WILL GRADUALLY FILL
WITH RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE TROUGHING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO
THE MID 90S TODAY AND AREA REMAINED DRY. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND
ANY RELIEF TO THE HEAT LOOK VERY DISMAL NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...MODELS SHOW A CLOSED H25 HIGH DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER PR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM TEMPS BETWEEN
950-700 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY HOT WEATHER HOTTER THAN IT
HAS BEEN LATELY AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS HIT THE
CENTURY MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT MAYAGUEZ HIT 97 TODAY AND
99F A FEW DAYS AGO.

MODELS SHOW BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LAST THREE TROPICAL
WAVES THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING AND THIS
ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE THE FOURTH IN A ROW. THE WAVE WILL BE
FIGHTING AGAINST BUILDING/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNFAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION. EVEN IF SOME SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND WOULD NOT INCREASE THE FUEL
OR SOIL MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY TO PREVENT A SIG FIRE WEATHER
THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIG WX IMPACT
ANTICIPATED ATTM. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE 10 TO 25 KT
BELOW 12K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT CARIBBEAN
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WINDS 15-20 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS PAST 30 DAYS AND HOT WEATHER
HAVE DRIED OUT FUELS AND MADE THEM VULNERABLE TO BURNING WITH
FIRES OBSERVED ALL ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AS OBSERVED BY ME TODAY.
NO SIG RAINS ARE FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING AND BRING FUELS CLOSER TO IGNITION IN
OTHER AREAS. SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS SFC THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. VERY HOT
AND WINDY WEATHER WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ARE LIKELY. WHILE
CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE UNDER STRONG RIDGE...VERY DRY FUELS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OFFSET AMY NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT STABLE CONDITIONS MIGHT HAVE.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2012 AT SJU LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
RECORD BOOKS. SO FAR THE AVG AND MAXT HAS BEEN 85.2F AND 91.9F
DEGS RESPECTIVELY SECOND ONLY TO JUNE 1988 IN BOTH CATEGORIES.
TODAY ALSO MARKS THE FOURTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPS AOA 90F
AND THE TWELFTH DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST GET HALF WAY TO THE
MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS AOA 90F DEG (35 DAYS) IN 1981
AND ALSO TO THE MAXIMUM CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN
(36 DAYS) IN 2005.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 94 80 94 / 0 10 10 10
STT 82 89 82 89 / 0 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

The temperatures on June 11 2012 in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 28.2°C (82.8°F) It was 28.6°C (83.5°F) yesterday, THE WARMEST IN 2 YEARS.
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.5°C (47.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.1°C (57.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.4°C (75.9°F) Warmest since April 5 2012
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.7°C (62.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Near normal in Honduras. Cooler than normal in Guatemala , Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.6°C (88.9°F) Warmest since April 9 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F) Coolest since April 24 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.1°C (48.4°F) Coldest since March 7 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)

[Rgv20]

Macrocane your going to have to empty out your rain gauge at least a couple of times in the next 8 days....Looks like a rainy pattern setting up.


0zGFS Forecast Rainfall Totals

[Macrocane]

The GFS has been very consistent showing all that rain over us, hopefully we won't see another record rainfall event again as it would be the 4th consecutive year to have one. Thanks for the info!

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More dry and very warm weather is expected for the next few days in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST WED JUN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH A RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR...HAZY...HOT AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE COULD BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER AGAIN
FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO NEAR 25 KNOTS BELOW 12K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAINLY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL DEFICITS PAST 30 DAYS AND HOT WEATHER HAVE DRIED OUT
FUELS AND MADE THEM VULNERABLE TO BURNING...WITH FIRES OBSERVED
ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE FORESEEN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
FURTHER DRYING AND BRING FUELS CLOSER TO IGNITION IN OTHER AREAS.
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS PROBABLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS AGAIN FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. HOT AND WINDY WEATHER AND NEAR OR RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE
UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE...VERY DRY FUELS...LOW HUMIDITIES...HOT
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACT TO OFFSET ANY NEGATIVE
FACTORS THAT STABLE CONDITIONS MIGHT HAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 94 79 94 79 / 10 10 10 10
STT 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

A new record for this day was broken as it rose to 95 degress in San Juan.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST WED JUN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...A FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO LEAD TO A GRADUAL
EROSION OF AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN. NAAPS MODEL CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE
10 TO 25 KT BELOW 12K FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. THIS BROKE
THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1997. TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE FIFTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE
THIRTEEN DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 90 / 0 0 0 0
STT 82 89 82 89 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,are the authorities there talking about 94E that is SSW of El Salvador?

[Macrocane]

Macrocane,are the authorities there talking about 94E that is SSW of El Salvador?

Yes, the authorities are already monitoring the system, the SNET has issued the first special report on the system, but no alert has been declared yet.

It has been very hot in Puerto Rico cycloneye, hopefully you'll get a relief soon.

[Macrocane]

The temperatures registered on June 12 2012 in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Near normal in El Salvador and Guatemala. Cooler than normal in Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.2°C (41.4°F) Coldest since May 10 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F) Coolest since May 4 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F) Coldest since May 12 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in El Salvador. Near normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.6°C (74.5°F) Coolest since April 24 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.3°C (48.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F) Coolest since December 14 2012
Panama city, Panama 27.6°C (81.7°F) Coolest since April 6 2012
Boquete, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,now this is turning more serious with this Tropical Weather Outlook.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. . INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

[Macrocane]

Yeah it seems that southern Mexico and western Guatemala is going to deal with a tropical storm to say the least. In El Salvador the rains may not be as persistent as it seemed yesterday but they can be heavy at times, in fact we've had some moderate to heavy rains this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Yeah it seems that southern Mexico and western Guatemala is going to deal with a tropical storm to say the least. In El Salvador the rains may not be as persistent as it seemed yesterday but they can be heavy at times, in fact we've had some moderate to heavy rains this afternoon.

The track is well away from where you are but some outer bands may move thru.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Let's hope that the moisture increases this weekend as we need it badly.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST THU JUN 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY TROUGHINESS ENCROACHING ON THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIDGE THEN NOSES
INTO THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR...HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT READINGS TO MAKE THE SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT RECORD OF 96 DEGREES SET IN 1983...IT WILL BE CLOSE AND
IRRESPECTIVE...IT WILL REMAIN HOT. IN FACT...THE CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT AND HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR LITTLE OR NO COOLING RELIEF. AS
A REMINDER...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS...SHOULD REFRAIN FROM PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES...TAKE
FREQUENT COOL OR SHADY BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR OTHER
NON-ALCOHOLIC AND DECAFFEINATED BEVERAGES...TO REMAIN WELL
HYDRATED.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE...IT
APPEARS THAT DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST...WILL INDUCE A MOIST SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...AS GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING...FA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND DRYNESS...AS SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. OVERALL DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN
FOR MONDAY AND AT LEAST A PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST A LITTLE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY AND HOT WITH SIGNIFICANT FUEL DRYING...AND
THERE IS A RISK OF FIRES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 79 93 79 / 0 0 0 10
STT 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 20

[Macrocane]

Good morning. Let's hope that the moisture increases this weekend as we need it badly.



.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR...HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT READINGS TO MAKE THE SAN JUAN LMM
AIRPORT RECORD OF 96 DEGREES SET IN 1983...IT WILL BE CLOSE AND
IRRESPECTIVE...IT WILL REMAIN HOT. IN FACT...THE CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT AND HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR LITTLE OR NO COOLING RELIEF. AS
A REMINDER...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS...SHOULD REFRAIN FROM PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES...TAKE
FREQUENT COOL OR SHADY BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR OTHER
NON-ALCOHOLIC AND DECAFFEINATED BEVERAGES...TO REMAIN WELL
HYDRATED.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 79 93 79 / 0 0 0 10
STT 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 20

Wow cycloneye, even the nights are very warm that has to be uncomfortable without A/C hopefully that trough will help over the weekend.

Here in El Salvador it has been more sunny than expected but rains should occur later today. Green alert has been declared in the country.