#133 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:06 pm
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND SW MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...
VALID 272157Z - 272300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
EXTREME SE KS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER BEHIND EARLIER CONVECTION. WW 95 IS SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE THREAT WILL EXTEND BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME.
DISCUSSION...A DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ERN KS SWD INTO
ERN OK. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS W-CENTRAL AND SW
MO...SKIES HAD CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. FURTHER EAST TOWARD SGF AND
S-CENTRAL MO...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER WERE LIMITING
INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
E/NE WITH ENSUING RECOVERY EXPECTED TO EXPAND EWD WITH TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPE WAS APPROACHING 2000 J/KG NEAR JLN WITH
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX IMPINGES ON THE REGION. REGIONAL 88-D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS
AND 0-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE MOVING E/NE INTO THE
RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SW MO. GIVEN LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...TORNADOES /POSSIBLY ONE OR
TWO STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND BEYOND 00Z
WHEN CURRENT TORNADO WATCH 95 EXPIRES AND A NEW WATCH WILL NEED TO
BE COORDINATED WITH WFO/S SGF AND EAX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...
ICT...
LAT...LON 39519501 40599372 40589250 39969250 38779260 38499206
38049140 37839137 36699111 36499115 36469273 36509510
39519501
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