Texas Fall-2016
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Maybe with Malakas recurve, its real?
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
I think in 2013, September October was fairly warm. Just need to hang on, were almost through it!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
More interesting discussion from the EWX this afternoon in the long range.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181928
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
High pressure continues to strengthen over South Central TX today
into Monday, leading to a threat of record highs. SAT has the
best chance of reaching a record with slightly cooler records to
reach than our other 3 climate sites. Heat indices the next two
days are also going to approach the Heat advisory criteria that is
defined as 108 or more over most of our Counties. Low level
moisture remains abundant as noted by a couple T/Td observations
of 80/80 over the SErn counties this morning. Light winds are
expected again tonight, and thus will again expect some patchy fog
at daybreak and another hot/humid day for Monday.
The upper ridge appears to be doing a fine job of deflecting much
of the moisture over the unstable Eastern Pacific/TS Paine well to
the west of South Central TX, but it will be interesting to see if
a small amount of this moisture wrapping around the periphery of
the mid/upper level Ridge is sufficient to destabilize the mid
levels as a weak mid level shear axis sags south into Central TX
late Monday. Should it do so, a shallow inverted-V forecast
sounding at AUS could suggest a few storms with gusty downdrafts.
Will include a slight chance PoP over the Coastal Prairies for
late Monday, but confidence is not high enough to raise concerns
over convective wind threats at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The mid/upper level ridge continues to expand Nwd Tuesday into
Wednesday, and the mid level winds continue to help bring daily
drying from E/NE low-mid level winds. This impact should keep
temps high, but perhaps add enough drying to lower min temps and
afternoon heat indices a few degrees. By Thursday, mid level winds
become onshore, and this is expected to help lower the max Temp,
at least over areas along/East of I-35. Model consensus continues
to show fair to good agreement on a deep upper trough to
destabilize the area Friday into this weekend, with a significant
cold front to follow by late Sunday. Good rain chances could
develop and possibly bring heavy rain, especially should the
Eastern Pacific remain unstable at it has been the past several
days. As well discussed in WPC`s Extended Forecast Discussion, the
run-to-run deterministic solutions are not consistent enough to
rule out a deviation from this trend, and will keep the day 7 PoPs
beneath blended MOS guidance suggestions.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181928
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
High pressure continues to strengthen over South Central TX today
into Monday, leading to a threat of record highs. SAT has the
best chance of reaching a record with slightly cooler records to
reach than our other 3 climate sites. Heat indices the next two
days are also going to approach the Heat advisory criteria that is
defined as 108 or more over most of our Counties. Low level
moisture remains abundant as noted by a couple T/Td observations
of 80/80 over the SErn counties this morning. Light winds are
expected again tonight, and thus will again expect some patchy fog
at daybreak and another hot/humid day for Monday.
The upper ridge appears to be doing a fine job of deflecting much
of the moisture over the unstable Eastern Pacific/TS Paine well to
the west of South Central TX, but it will be interesting to see if
a small amount of this moisture wrapping around the periphery of
the mid/upper level Ridge is sufficient to destabilize the mid
levels as a weak mid level shear axis sags south into Central TX
late Monday. Should it do so, a shallow inverted-V forecast
sounding at AUS could suggest a few storms with gusty downdrafts.
Will include a slight chance PoP over the Coastal Prairies for
late Monday, but confidence is not high enough to raise concerns
over convective wind threats at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The mid/upper level ridge continues to expand Nwd Tuesday into
Wednesday, and the mid level winds continue to help bring daily
drying from E/NE low-mid level winds. This impact should keep
temps high, but perhaps add enough drying to lower min temps and
afternoon heat indices a few degrees. By Thursday, mid level winds
become onshore, and this is expected to help lower the max Temp,
at least over areas along/East of I-35. Model consensus continues
to show fair to good agreement on a deep upper trough to
destabilize the area Friday into this weekend, with a significant
cold front to follow by late Sunday. Good rain chances could
develop and possibly bring heavy rain, especially should the
Eastern Pacific remain unstable at it has been the past several
days. As well discussed in WPC`s Extended Forecast Discussion, the
run-to-run deterministic solutions are not consistent enough to
rule out a deviation from this trend, and will keep the day 7 PoPs
beneath blended MOS guidance suggestions.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
FWD seems interested too:
Rain chances will increase across all of North and Central TX on
Saturday as synoptic scale lift overspreads the region. The best
lift is expected to be across western and northern zones and this
is where the highest PoPs (40%) are painted. Good forcing for
ascent will continue through the day on Sunday as the high
amplitude trough slowly nudges towards the east. The ECMWF has
come into a bit better agreement with the latest GFS with regards
to the upper trough. This upper trough should help to drag a
noticeable cold front through much of the region resulting in
continued rain chances into early next week. Temperatures in the
wake of the cold front should fall closer to seasonal averages
with high temperatures in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s
and 70s. Both the GFS and ECMWF both pinch the main upper level
low off from the stronger westerlies aloft. This could mean that
cooler weather and low rain chances linger even towards the middle
portion of next week, which will certainly be welcomed after the
extended period of above average temperatures.
Rain chances will increase across all of North and Central TX on
Saturday as synoptic scale lift overspreads the region. The best
lift is expected to be across western and northern zones and this
is where the highest PoPs (40%) are painted. Good forcing for
ascent will continue through the day on Sunday as the high
amplitude trough slowly nudges towards the east. The ECMWF has
come into a bit better agreement with the latest GFS with regards
to the upper trough. This upper trough should help to drag a
noticeable cold front through much of the region resulting in
continued rain chances into early next week. Temperatures in the
wake of the cold front should fall closer to seasonal averages
with high temperatures in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s
and 70s. Both the GFS and ECMWF both pinch the main upper level
low off from the stronger westerlies aloft. This could mean that
cooler weather and low rain chances linger even towards the middle
portion of next week, which will certainly be welcomed after the
extended period of above average temperatures.
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#neversummer
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Tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
HGX is still not on board:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 182123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
423 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Quick update to issue a short Heat Advisory for the coastal
counties where heat index values have climbed into the 106 to 112
degree range with 4 PM CDT observations. Expect heat index values
to remain elevated through sunset. No other changes made to the
forecast.
Huffman
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
The handful of showers that have managed to form near the coast
and offshore waters this afternoon should dissipate by this
evening. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two are also
expected for tomorrow, primarily near the coast. High pressure
settling in over Texas through the next couple of days will bring
in drier conditions and stifle any shower/thunderstorm activity
through much of this week. Towards the end of the week, a trough
approaching from the northwest will erode the high pressure enough
to allow a disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico to move onto the
lower Texas coast. Around Friday, this disturbance will approach
SE Texas from the southwest, increasing rain chances through the
weekend. By early next week, the trough will push through the
central CONUS, potentially dragging a cold front into SE Texas
sometime around Monday. However, models have been pretty
inconsistent so far with this system, and confidence on the timing
remains low.
This upcoming week is expected to be quite hot, with high
temperatures forecast in the mid 90s across inland areas each
afternoon until the arrival of the aforementioned disturbance on
Friday. Heat indices are forecast in the low 100s for the next day
or so, followed by the upper 90s through early next week. Although
these heat indices may not reach heat advisory criteria (108),
they can still be dangerous, and heat safety messaging should be a
priority this week. The US has already accumulated 30 child
vehicular heat stroke deaths so far this year, which is already
greater than the total from all of 2015 (24). So far, Texas has
recorded 7 of these deaths, which is up from 5 in 2015. 11
MARINE...
Still looking for a weak backdoor front to bring mainly
light northeast to east winds to the area for the first
half of the week. Light to moderate onshore winds return
for the second half of the week and on into next weekend
partly in response to building high pressure to the east
and deepening low pressure to the west. This onshore flow
will also bring the area gradually building seas. At this
time, still not anticipating the need for Caution/Advisory
flags. Not real confident on the strength/timing on a cold
front early next week. Hopefully models can come into better
and more consistent agreement over the next several days. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
Looking for possible SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon with peak
daytime heating, but not anticipating significant coverage so will
not include in the TAFs at this time. VFR until possibility late
tonight through early tomorrow morning when MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or
visibilities could develop. For winds, look for current VRB04KTish
to become more out of the ESE and SE this afternoon, then back to
light and variable overnight. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 96 75 95 73 / 0 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 76 96 76 94 74 / 0 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 80 90 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Jackson...
Matagorda.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...14
00
FXUS64 KHGX 182123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
423 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Quick update to issue a short Heat Advisory for the coastal
counties where heat index values have climbed into the 106 to 112
degree range with 4 PM CDT observations. Expect heat index values
to remain elevated through sunset. No other changes made to the
forecast.
Huffman
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
The handful of showers that have managed to form near the coast
and offshore waters this afternoon should dissipate by this
evening. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two are also
expected for tomorrow, primarily near the coast. High pressure
settling in over Texas through the next couple of days will bring
in drier conditions and stifle any shower/thunderstorm activity
through much of this week. Towards the end of the week, a trough
approaching from the northwest will erode the high pressure enough
to allow a disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico to move onto the
lower Texas coast. Around Friday, this disturbance will approach
SE Texas from the southwest, increasing rain chances through the
weekend. By early next week, the trough will push through the
central CONUS, potentially dragging a cold front into SE Texas
sometime around Monday. However, models have been pretty
inconsistent so far with this system, and confidence on the timing
remains low.
This upcoming week is expected to be quite hot, with high
temperatures forecast in the mid 90s across inland areas each
afternoon until the arrival of the aforementioned disturbance on
Friday. Heat indices are forecast in the low 100s for the next day
or so, followed by the upper 90s through early next week. Although
these heat indices may not reach heat advisory criteria (108),
they can still be dangerous, and heat safety messaging should be a
priority this week. The US has already accumulated 30 child
vehicular heat stroke deaths so far this year, which is already
greater than the total from all of 2015 (24). So far, Texas has
recorded 7 of these deaths, which is up from 5 in 2015. 11
MARINE...
Still looking for a weak backdoor front to bring mainly
light northeast to east winds to the area for the first
half of the week. Light to moderate onshore winds return
for the second half of the week and on into next weekend
partly in response to building high pressure to the east
and deepening low pressure to the west. This onshore flow
will also bring the area gradually building seas. At this
time, still not anticipating the need for Caution/Advisory
flags. Not real confident on the strength/timing on a cold
front early next week. Hopefully models can come into better
and more consistent agreement over the next several days. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
Looking for possible SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon with peak
daytime heating, but not anticipating significant coverage so will
not include in the TAFs at this time. VFR until possibility late
tonight through early tomorrow morning when MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or
visibilities could develop. For winds, look for current VRB04KTish
to become more out of the ESE and SE this afternoon, then back to
light and variable overnight. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 96 75 95 73 / 0 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 76 96 76 94 74 / 0 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 80 90 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Jackson...
Matagorda.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...14
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Fall is coming, I think... GFS is very unsettled all next week:
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#neversummer
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weatherdude1108
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- Posts: 4228
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- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Not much change in the overnight/early morning discussion from yesterday, except a pattern change? 
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190843
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
343 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Subtropical Ridge remains over Texas through mid week keeping rain
out of the forecast. Ridge eases off to the east late this week
into next weekend with subsidence and capping weakening. Consensus
of the models/ensembles show a deepening upper level trough over
the western states moving to the northeast across the northern
plains with the southern part pinching off and developing into a
closed low anywhere from the Four Corners Region to Western Texas
depending on the model/ensemble member. Deeper moisture moves back
into the Texas coastal areas on Thursday and spreads into South
Central Texas on Friday. Slight chance POPs return to the Coastal
Plain on Thursday and spread west to the US highway 281 corridor
on Friday as the airmass destabilizes. The approach of a cold
front adds to the lift next weekend with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. Due to uncertainty on the movement of the
upper level low will only go with 30 to 40 POPs. A couple of
models show a potential for heavier rains beyond this forecast for
early in the following week as the upper level low and cold front
maximize lift of a very moist airmass with PWS near 2 inches.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190843
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
343 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Subtropical Ridge remains over Texas through mid week keeping rain
out of the forecast. Ridge eases off to the east late this week
into next weekend with subsidence and capping weakening. Consensus
of the models/ensembles show a deepening upper level trough over
the western states moving to the northeast across the northern
plains with the southern part pinching off and developing into a
closed low anywhere from the Four Corners Region to Western Texas
depending on the model/ensemble member. Deeper moisture moves back
into the Texas coastal areas on Thursday and spreads into South
Central Texas on Friday. Slight chance POPs return to the Coastal
Plain on Thursday and spread west to the US highway 281 corridor
on Friday as the airmass destabilizes. The approach of a cold
front adds to the lift next weekend with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. Due to uncertainty on the movement of the
upper level low will only go with 30 to 40 POPs. A couple of
models show a potential for heavier rains beyond this forecast for
early in the following week as the upper level low and cold front
maximize lift of a very moist airmass with PWS near 2 inches.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Any chance Paine brings some Pacific moisture into the state this coming weekend?
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
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- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall-2016
The 0z operational runs of the GFS and Euro now back the cooler air off to the beginning of October. I'm hoping the medium range models are variable due to Pacific hurricane activity but I will let out resident expert of these issues -- Ntxw -- opine accordingly. 
I sure hope the models come back to a solution which breaks the back of this late summer heat sooner rather than later.
Have you folks seen how hot it has been in the Valley this summer? This was a tweet yesterday from NWS Brownsville:
"79 days of 100 or higher for high temperatures in McAllen so far this year. This breaks record of 78 days set in 1998 and 2009. #rgv #rgvwx"
Poor Rgv20.
I sure hope the models come back to a solution which breaks the back of this late summer heat sooner rather than later.
Have you folks seen how hot it has been in the Valley this summer? This was a tweet yesterday from NWS Brownsville:
"79 days of 100 or higher for high temperatures in McAllen so far this year. This breaks record of 78 days set in 1998 and 2009. #rgv #rgvwx"
Poor Rgv20.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Goodness gracious. This Summer is finishing us off good. Like a Cleveland Browns game. Oops...sorry Porta...LOL
Oh great...we are under a heat advisory...oh yea....
00
FXUS64 KHGX 191519
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1019 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory through 7 PM. Looking for heat
index values to peak in a 105 to 110 range in and around the Advisory
area. A record high temperature was set at Houston Hobby yesterday
(97 degrees broke the old record of 96 degrees set in 1982), and today`s
record high at Houston Intercontinental Airport of 97 degrees set in
1995 is in jeopardy of being tied or broken. With the heat, cannot
totally rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. But anticipate
a majority of Southeast Texas to stay dry today. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
Low/mid level ridging will dominate area wx for the next several
days bringing continued hot temps & minimal rain chances.
Heat indicies will probably again approach the 105-110 range during
the afternoon hours and a short term heat advisory can`t be ruled
out, especially closer to the coast. Lower dewpoints should backdoor
into the region on Tue which should limit humidity/heat indices
going into midweek.
Rain-wise...may see a few cells pop up from time to time, but
suspect combination of lower pw`s & subsidence will be too much
to overcome for most areas. Seabreeze might be about the only
decent shot, albeit low, in the coming days. Any stronger late
aftn cells could produce strong wind gusts.
Ridge loosens its grip Friday and into the weekend. Temps will
moderate, and moisture levels & rain chances gradually increase.
Latest guidance slows the eastward progression of the next upper
trof compared to what we were looking at yesterday. Brings a bit
more uncertainty regarding which days that might see the better
chances of rain this weekend and early next week. Will keep the
30-40%`ers going for now as a starting point until fcst confidence
improves. 47
MARINE...
A weak backdoor front is expected to bring light NE/E winds to the
coastal waters later this afternoon...persisting through tomorrow.
However, high pressure building to the east and lowering pressures
out west will allow for the return of onshore winds by Weds night.
This light/moderate onshore flow is forecast to strengthen by late
Thurs night as the developing low out west help tighten the gradi-
ent across the area. This deepening SE flow will also increase low
level moisture and rain chances for Fri (and likely on through the
weekend). At this time still not anticipating the need for Caution
or Advisory flags during this time frame. All of this unsettled wx
appears to be setting the stage for a cold front early next week.
The latest long range runs appear to be backing off on this system
but that is to be expected this time of year. Perhaps later models
will come into better consensus these next several days. 41
AVIATION...
Will likely be dealing with morning fog/low clouds through the rest
of the morning...especially for our more southern TAF sites. Again,
we could see a repeat tonight/early Tues morning (despite the pass-
age of a weak backdoor cool front). Otherwise will be expecting VFR
conditions during the afternoon with no mention of precipitation as
the airmass remains dry. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 76 96 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Oh great...we are under a heat advisory...oh yea....
00
FXUS64 KHGX 191519
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1019 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory through 7 PM. Looking for heat
index values to peak in a 105 to 110 range in and around the Advisory
area. A record high temperature was set at Houston Hobby yesterday
(97 degrees broke the old record of 96 degrees set in 1982), and today`s
record high at Houston Intercontinental Airport of 97 degrees set in
1995 is in jeopardy of being tied or broken. With the heat, cannot
totally rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. But anticipate
a majority of Southeast Texas to stay dry today. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
Low/mid level ridging will dominate area wx for the next several
days bringing continued hot temps & minimal rain chances.
Heat indicies will probably again approach the 105-110 range during
the afternoon hours and a short term heat advisory can`t be ruled
out, especially closer to the coast. Lower dewpoints should backdoor
into the region on Tue which should limit humidity/heat indices
going into midweek.
Rain-wise...may see a few cells pop up from time to time, but
suspect combination of lower pw`s & subsidence will be too much
to overcome for most areas. Seabreeze might be about the only
decent shot, albeit low, in the coming days. Any stronger late
aftn cells could produce strong wind gusts.
Ridge loosens its grip Friday and into the weekend. Temps will
moderate, and moisture levels & rain chances gradually increase.
Latest guidance slows the eastward progression of the next upper
trof compared to what we were looking at yesterday. Brings a bit
more uncertainty regarding which days that might see the better
chances of rain this weekend and early next week. Will keep the
30-40%`ers going for now as a starting point until fcst confidence
improves. 47
MARINE...
A weak backdoor front is expected to bring light NE/E winds to the
coastal waters later this afternoon...persisting through tomorrow.
However, high pressure building to the east and lowering pressures
out west will allow for the return of onshore winds by Weds night.
This light/moderate onshore flow is forecast to strengthen by late
Thurs night as the developing low out west help tighten the gradi-
ent across the area. This deepening SE flow will also increase low
level moisture and rain chances for Fri (and likely on through the
weekend). At this time still not anticipating the need for Caution
or Advisory flags during this time frame. All of this unsettled wx
appears to be setting the stage for a cold front early next week.
The latest long range runs appear to be backing off on this system
but that is to be expected this time of year. Perhaps later models
will come into better consensus these next several days. 41
AVIATION...
Will likely be dealing with morning fog/low clouds through the rest
of the morning...especially for our more southern TAF sites. Again,
we could see a repeat tonight/early Tues morning (despite the pass-
age of a weak backdoor cool front). Otherwise will be expecting VFR
conditions during the afternoon with no mention of precipitation as
the airmass remains dry. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 76 96 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall-2016
I feel like it's dejavu... now the models are backing off the cooler air and rain again... 
fall is never coming.
fall is never coming.
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#neversummer
-
South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4198
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Texas Fall-2016
I don't like the latest trends in the models...they are now starting to retrograde the upper-low for this weekend keeping it too far west to bring us much rain and cooler temperatures.
This happened with the system that was originally forecast to bring us rain this past weekend (but the low ended up near southern California).
Ugh.
This happened with the system that was originally forecast to bring us rain this past weekend (but the low ended up near southern California).
Ugh.
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Tireman4
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- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
More fun news from HGX..
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.AVIATION...
Some of the short term guidance is showing some potential for
shra/tsra later this aftn but the cu field is looking rather flat
at the current time so will keep area TAFs dry for now. A weak
boundary will approach the area late tonight or early Tuesday.
Some potential for fog ahead of the boundary especially for areas
s/sw of the front like KLBX and KSGR. This is the area that the
SREF is pinging with vsbys less than 3 miles. The latest RAP and
the NMM produce some showers after 08z as a weak boundary moves
into SE TX. Confidence not terribly high with this feature but
both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings support a bkn060 deck with PW
values between 1.75-2.00 inches so went ahead and mentioned VCSH
for KIAH southward early Tuesday morning. 43
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.AVIATION...
Some of the short term guidance is showing some potential for
shra/tsra later this aftn but the cu field is looking rather flat
at the current time so will keep area TAFs dry for now. A weak
boundary will approach the area late tonight or early Tuesday.
Some potential for fog ahead of the boundary especially for areas
s/sw of the front like KLBX and KSGR. This is the area that the
SREF is pinging with vsbys less than 3 miles. The latest RAP and
the NMM produce some showers after 08z as a weak boundary moves
into SE TX. Confidence not terribly high with this feature but
both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings support a bkn060 deck with PW
values between 1.75-2.00 inches so went ahead and mentioned VCSH
for KIAH southward early Tuesday morning. 43
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Fall-2016
South Texas Storms wrote:I don't like the latest trends in the models...they are now starting to retrograde the upper-low for this weekend keeping it too far west to bring us much rain and cooler temperatures.
This happened with the system that was originally forecast to bring us rain this past weekend (but the low ended up near southern California).
Ugh.
Ugh.
I spoke too soon earlier, feeling enthused. Seems to always happen that way. Lucy grabs the football.
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22951
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Yep, that's some cold front moving through Texas next Monday. Might knock our highs down to the mid 90s. Better go check my furnace...
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Latest Euro with a blocking high over Texas which would mean no relief from the warm air. Also would be a pattern for keeping any tropical systems away as well. Animation from day 5 to day 10 below
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22951
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Brent wrote:I feel like it's dejavu... now the models are backing off the cooler air and rain again...
Now that's the spirit! 2016-2017 - the year without a winter. I have Nov. 8th as the date for the first Houston cold front (sub-50F temp at IAH). I'm not seeing much chance of a significant cold front over the next few weeks.
I assume you meant "no relief from the warm air", gatorcane.
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