Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

#121 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:30 pm

EWG I wish and I'll be watching too, but lowering our pops from 50 to 40 isn't a good sign.

#122 Postby **wx247** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:57 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yeah I did, but I still dont think my last graphic was too far off. The models seem to be slowing this thing down a bit and it doesnt surprise me either, so i decided to treck a little westward with my highest risks.

And in case you are wondering, I think spc is overdone on TODAYS severe threat,. I just cant see a 45% probability for wind damage is such a heavily capped area. I dunno, the tornado threat seems reasonable, but I think the wind damage probs are overdone. Much like november 27 2005 when a large wind damage area was indicated but mainly hail and tornadoes were the threats. I still think Hail is the biggest threat this evening into the overnight with isolated tornadoes likely. But, I think the tornado threat will be further north near southwest missouri and into southeast kansas as opposed to southest OK and northeast TX, I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all goes down.

I hope you're wrong. I don't want to witness another tornado again. I would be more than happy to relinquish my talent of tornado magnet to someone else.

#123 Postby **wx247** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:20 pm

New TORNADO WATCH for Eastern Oklahoma... goes until 10:00. I don't have the text yet, but it just came across the wires. More shortly!

6SpeedTA95 · #124 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:21 pm

wx247 wrote:New TORNADO WATCH for Eastern Oklahoma... goes until 10:00. I don't have the text yet, but it just came across the wires. More shortly!

Took them long enough, they should have done that an hour ago...

#125 Postby **wx247** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:23 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 415 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVE OKLAHOMA
TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...

DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING ON THE SURFACE DRYLINE AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE
UNCAPPED ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN INSTABILITY BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KT
SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS THAT CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...MCCARTHY

#126 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:46 pm

Sounds quite ominous...

6SpeedTA95 · #127 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Sounds quite ominous...

You throw that word around a lot...

Its a tornado watch, we'll just have to see what happens

#128 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 6:07 pm

Yeah I do, there are no warnings yet - but nighttime tornadoes can be the worst as people can't often see them and may not get the warnings.

6SpeedTA95 · #129 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 6:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Yeah I do, there are no warnings yet - but nighttime tornadoes can be the worst as people can't often see them and may not get the warnings.

Yes thats true and the setup is good especially for this early in the year

#130 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 7:46 pm

There are now four watches out:

Watch 39 - Tornado Watch - eastern Kansas/western Missouri
Watch 40 - Tornado Watch - eastern Oklahoma
Watch 41 - Severe T-Storm Watch - northern Missouri/eastern Iowa (with warnings)
Watch 42 - Tornado Watch - central Oklahoma/north-central Texas

conestogo_flood · #131 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:15 pm

Nothing is firing up tonight. When will this all start!

wxmann_91 · #132 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:23 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Nothing is firing up tonight. When will this all start!

When the atmosphere feels like it...

But seriously, the upper-air energy has yet to catch up, but when it does storms should be blowing up.

Tomorrow could be a big day if the shear profiles are not unidirectional. Also the cap will be a big player, too much ahead of the line will prevent supercell development, too little will cause a big glop of convective junk.

Extremeweatherguy · #133 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:28 pm

worst case would be a late night start...many people would be caught off gaurd as they slept. In 1998 a tornado outbreak hit central Florida during the middle of the night killing 48+ people (Most were killed in a rare Florida F4 tornado). It was a disaster. Let's hope that a similar situation does not occur with this system.

conestogo_flood · #134 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:32 pm

Most people in tornado alley have a weather radio don't they? Plus, the tornado sirens must work.

WaitingForSiren · #135 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:47 pm

wx_man, you should make a graphic of where you think the greatest severe threat is tomorrow .

And also, I think tonight will be a bust overall. High clouds have ruined the surface heating earlier this afternoon and should continue inhibiting convection. I guess severe storms could fire up later tonight, but the longer we go without severe storms across the mdt risk area the less tornadic they will likely be. I mean, anything is possible, but overall I dont think tonight will be moderate risk material.

#136 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:51 pm

It was expected to start late this evening and into the overnight hours and all day tomorrow.

Tornado Watch 39 (eastern Kansas/western Missouri) has been cancelled.

WaitingForSiren · #137 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:10 pm

THE FOLLOWING IS MY OPINION ONLY, AND NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.

#138 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:34 pm

Storms picking up in DFW area:

Click it twice.

Extremeweatherguy · #139 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:47 pm

The clouds are really zipping by above Houston tonight. I will be watching closely tomorrow morning.

jhamps10 · #140 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:50 pm

I have a map that shows my personal forcast of highest risk area, I made it last night and posted it in another forum, I am making changes to wendle down some areas, and should be up by 10 PM Central Time.

Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

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