SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[double D]

How are the models looking as far a a nice cool down after Thanksgiving?

It looks like we will start cooling down after Thanksgiving, how much remains to be seen. The GFS brings down some Arctic air around the end of the month, but as of right now it looks like the brunt of it goes east. Plus the arctic air looks transient and does not hang around very long. The progressive pattern continues.

[Portastorm]

How are the models looking as far a a nice cool down after Thanksgiving?

It looks like we will start cooling down after Thanksgiving, how much remains to be seen. The GFS brings down some Arctic air around the end of the month, but as of right now it looks like the brunt of it goes east. Plus the arctic air looks transient and does not hang around very long. The progressive pattern continues.

I'll try and summarize after looking at the last 3 consecutive GFS runs along with the last 2 Euro runs ... look for an overall pattern change by late Thanksgiving weekend to a split flow across the CONUS. How much return moisture we're able to get in Texas remains to be seen though. Outside of SE Texas, the rest of us could really use the rain!

Looks like a very strong cold shot comes down at the beginning of December but as double D wrote, it'll be transient. So far, GFS numbers show highs near 50 and lows in the lower 30s for several days around Austin at that time. Temps then rebound closer to seasonal around Dec. 4th and beyond.

[JenBayles]

I have no idea what we hit for the morning low since my thermometer crashed on me, but it was cold enough to spark up the fireplace last night. If I hadn't had a morning appointment, I would have sparked it up again this morning. Yeah, I'm a firebug! I think I hear the screams of dying mosquitos as I type....

[double D]

Very nice explanation Portastorm. I wonder what JB is saying about the cold late next week? Maybe EWG can enlighten us.

[double D]

I have no idea what we hit for the morning low since my thermometer crashed on me, but it was cold enough to spark up the fireplace last night. If I hadn't had a morning appointment, I would have sparked it up again this morning. Yeah, I'm a firebug! I think I hear the screams of dying mosquitos as I type....

I love to start the fireplace any chance I can get too Jen. I love the smell of oak burning in the fireplace

Although we don't have as many mosquitos in the Hill Country, I'm glad that the bugs are hopefully gone for the winter.

[Yankeegirl]

I hit 34 out here last night... Thank God my thermometer has memory on it!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not sure if I actually hit freezing this AM - I didn't get to check my good thermometer before work but the closest Weatherbug - which is generally accurate - did hit 32.

I am surprised that we did get the freeze as dewpoints were coming up - I thought there was still enough residual moisture to keep us safe. Apparently some drier air was able to advect down to the surface so I busted on that.

And no EWG it doesn't "always" happen that way on a radiational night; there are a number of factors that influence what the dewpoint will bottom-out at. Last night the higher dewpoints were quickly scoured-out and then the temperature was able to drop. On a perfectly still night they might have held up high enough at the surface to prevent a freeze. That's what I thought would happen but it didn't hold - maybe next time

Ok, may be not always, but a good 90% of the time I see dewpoints shoot upwards early in the evening and then slowly fall back down as the temperatures drop overnight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another cold one on the way tonight! Mid to upper 30s for northern Harris county.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Very nice explanation Portastorm. I wonder what JB is saying about the cold late next week? Maybe EWG can enlighten us.

JB's evening update says that he expects a sharp, but brief cold shot to come down the plains next week. He said that the plains (including TX) will see a 1-2 day period of mid-winter-like temperatures behind the front before things moderate again to near normal.

[jasons2k]

Wow! After thinking all day I had a freeze, it turns out I didn't after all

I finally checked the thermometer and my low fell to 35. The banana trees in my yard don't have any leaf burn, so they live for another threat...

[JenBayles]

jschlitz - you reminded me of the years we had a ton of bananna trees. I don't miss them one bit since we had them ripped out about 3 years ago. Nasty, slimy things when they freeze, huh? All it takes is one healthy plant to make it through one winter, and you've got banannas forever. One plant I don't miss at all.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow! After thinking all day I had a freeze, it turns out I didn't after all

I finally checked the thermometer and my low fell to 35. The banana trees in my yard don't have any leaf burn, so they live for another threat...

wow. You really lucked out. With Conroe at 29F, Tomball at 32F and Houston at 32F you would have thought you would have had a freeze too. Luckily for your bananna trees though you managed to escape it. I wonder how that happened? Do you live in a heavily paved area or is your location under trees?

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, another sign that winter could be especially snowy in the south (and hopefully TX)...

SNOW is being reported in the Orlando, FLORIDA area!



(Too bad I don't still live there to see it!)

[Yankeegirl]

WWHHAATTTTTTT????????? Snow in Orlando???? WTF???

[Extremeweatherguy]

WWHHAATTTTTTT????????? Snow in Orlando???? WTF???

yeah I know, I am very amazed myself. Go check out the threads on it in the winter weather forum.

[KatDaddy]

We may pay for all the nice weather after Thanksgiving.

UPPER RIDGE STILL FORECAST TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN CENTRAL GULF/MS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE VERY SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND
MONDAY AND GIVEN THE MUCH BETTER PERFORMANCE (SEE NCEP MODEL BIAS
PAGE) OF THE ECMWF WILL FAVOR THIS PATH. THIS LEADS TO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...IE NO FROPA JUST
CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PERHAPS THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT EVEN THE DAY 8-9-10 GRAPHICS KEEP THE
TROUGH WEST OF HERE THOUGH WE ARE CERTAINLY GETTING INTO THE
BUSINESS END OF THE TROUGH...PERHAPS WE WILL RING IN THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER WITH A BIG EVENT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We may pay for all the nice weather after Thanksgiving.

UPPER RIDGE STILL FORECAST TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN CENTRAL GULF/MS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE VERY SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND
MONDAY AND GIVEN THE MUCH BETTER PERFORMANCE (SEE NCEP MODEL BIAS
PAGE) OF THE ECMWF WILL FAVOR THIS PATH. THIS LEADS TO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...IE NO FROPA JUST
CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PERHAPS THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT EVEN THE DAY 8-9-10 GRAPHICS KEEP THE
TROUGH WEST OF HERE THOUGH WE ARE CERTAINLY GETTING INTO THE
BUSINESS END OF THE TROUGH...PERHAPS WE WILL RING IN THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER WITH A BIG EVENT.

If the 6Z GFS is correct, then we certainly will:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

It once again shows some potential for winter weather in parts of SE Texas on day 9.

And not only that..but if it is right, December 1st will be COLD!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml
^^highs likely not reaching 50F for many SE Texas locations on Dec. 1st^^

[double D]

We may pay for all the nice weather after Thanksgiving.

UPPER RIDGE STILL FORECAST TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN CENTRAL GULF/MS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE VERY SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND
MONDAY AND GIVEN THE MUCH BETTER PERFORMANCE (SEE NCEP MODEL BIAS
PAGE) OF THE ECMWF WILL FAVOR THIS PATH. THIS LEADS TO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...IE NO FROPA JUST
CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PERHAPS THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT EVEN THE DAY 8-9-10 GRAPHICS KEEP THE
TROUGH WEST OF HERE THOUGH WE ARE CERTAINLY GETTING INTO THE
BUSINESS END OF THE TROUGH...PERHAPS WE WILL RING IN THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER WITH A BIG EVENT.

If the 6Z GFS is correct, then we certainly will:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

It once again shows some potential for winter weather in parts of SE Texas on day 9.

And not only that..but if it is right, December 1st will be COLD!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml
^^highs likely not reaching 50F for many SE Texas locations on Dec. 1st^^

It almost sounds like thier talking about a severe weather event instead of a snow or cold event. The NWS says the trough should be west of Houston which would pump in moisture from the gulf. Anyway it does sound a little confusing by what they mean by the "big event".

[Extremeweatherguy]

We may pay for all the nice weather after Thanksgiving.

UPPER RIDGE STILL FORECAST TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN CENTRAL GULF/MS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE VERY SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND
MONDAY AND GIVEN THE MUCH BETTER PERFORMANCE (SEE NCEP MODEL BIAS
PAGE) OF THE ECMWF WILL FAVOR THIS PATH. THIS LEADS TO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...IE NO FROPA JUST
CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PERHAPS THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT EVEN THE DAY 8-9-10 GRAPHICS KEEP THE
TROUGH WEST OF HERE THOUGH WE ARE CERTAINLY GETTING INTO THE
BUSINESS END OF THE TROUGH...PERHAPS WE WILL RING IN THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER WITH A BIG EVENT.

If the 6Z GFS is correct, then we certainly will:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

It once again shows some potential for winter weather in parts of SE Texas on day 9.

And not only that..but if it is right, December 1st will be COLD!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml
^^highs likely not reaching 50F for many SE Texas locations on Dec. 1st^^

It almost sounds like thier talking about a severe weather event instead of a snow or cold event. The NWS says the trough should be west of Houston which would pump in moisture from the gulf. Anyway it does sound a little confusing by what they mean by the "big event".

your right, they could be meaning it in that way too. However, in the end, if the models and JB are right...we should still get very cold to close out next week.

In fact, next week could be very interesting. We may start well above normal, then recieve a period of rain/storms and then close out with the coldest air so far this season. It may be one of those weeks where the weather is really interesting each day.

[jasons2k]

Wow! After thinking all day I had a freeze, it turns out I didn't after all

I finally checked the thermometer and my low fell to 35. The banana trees in my yard don't have any leaf burn, so they live for another threat...

wow. You really lucked out. With Conroe at 29F, Tomball at 32F and Houston at 32F you would have thought you would have had a freeze too. Luckily for your bananna trees though you managed to escape it. I wonder how that happened? Do you live in a heavily paved area or is your location under trees?

I do have a pool but still I am normally the same as IAH or just one degree below. I am also usually on par with the John Cooper School weatherbug in The Woodlands. Maybe my area was just in a warm patch. Driving through the neighborhood this morning - none of the banana trees had leaf burn from a freeze.