Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[r22weiss]

Norman NWS with a timeline of the Woodward tornado:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full6.jpg

[r22weiss]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC037-113-117-151045-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0047.120415T0943Z-120415T1045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 545 AM CDT

* AT 438 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF PAWNEE TO 33 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DRUMRIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
PAWNEE...RALSTON...BURBANK...QUAY...FAIRFAX...SKEDEE...MARAMEC...
SHIDLER...DRUMRIGHT...BLACKBURN...OILTON...JENNINGS...HALLETT...
FORAKER...TERLTON...CLEVELAND...PEARSONIA...OSAGE...HOMINY...
PAWHUSKA...WYNONA...WESTPORT...WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK...
BIGHEART...OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK...BARNSDALL...OKESA...AVANT AND
HULAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9602 3642 9600 3591 9662 3615 9663
3616 9683 3624 9682 3624 9692 3633 9693
3633 9704 3649 9704 3655 9697 3656 9691
3660 9691 3701 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 224DEG 52KT 3647 9696 3572 9696

[r22weiss]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC001-099-125-133-205-207-151100-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0056.120415T1001Z-120415T1100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
501 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
EASTERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT

* AT 456 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF YATES CENTER TO ELK
CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHANUTE...IOLA...PARSONS...BUFFALO...NEODESHA...ALTOONA...
CHERRYVALE...THAYER...HUMBOLDT...MOUND VALLEY...GAS...GALESBURG...
ALTAMONT...LA HARPE...ERIE...MORAN...OSWEGO...ST. PAUL...SYCAMORE
AND ROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

[r22weiss]

Only Tornado Watch 175 remains. All other watches were allowed to expire.

[r22weiss]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC037-105-113-117-131-143-147-151130-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0048.120415T1030Z-120415T1130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NOWATA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN ROGERS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 527 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF HULAH TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF
MANNFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
OKESA...KEYSTONE STATE PARK...BARNSDALL...HULAH...AVANT...
BARTLESVILLE...COPAN...SAND SPRINGS...DEWEY...OCHELATA...
SKIATOOK...SPERRY...RAMONA...TULSA...WANN...VERA...OWASSO...
COLLINSVILLE...SOUTH COFFEYVILLE...LENAPAH...DELAWARE...TALALA...
OOLOGAH...NOWATA...WATOVA...FOYIL...NEW ALLUWE AND CHELSEA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 187 AND 219.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wow, Woodward ends up getting hit the hardest by a cell that formed from a linear storm. My condolenses to the families of the victims in this tragic event in Oklahoma.

[cycloneye]

Here is information about what occured in Wichita,Kansas. Thankfully,so far no fatalities there,only some injuries,but plenty of damage.

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/04/14/35 ... south.html

[Dave]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN A BAND FROM ILLINOIS
AND MISSOURI SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND
EAST TEXAS.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...A NEW ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHWEST
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
IN IOWA. SUNSHINE IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL BOOST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 04/15/2012

$$

[RL3AO]

So the sirens weren't working in Woodward.

The siren mentality strikes again. Might be better off getting rid of the damn things altogether.

A $20 weather radio might have saved some of those lives.

[Ntxw]

Was not expecting the news out of Woodward waking up this morning. Can't emphasize enough to not be in trailer homes especially during a night situation like it was. Condolences to the lost

[Dave]

From KWTV News 9

Massive Damage, Fatalities After Tornado Strikes Woodward

http://www.news9.com/story/17454118/tornado-strikes-woodward-causing-major-damage-injuries

[artist]

thanks for the coverage all.

[CrazyC83]

Probably the real count is around 60-80 tornadoes yesterday. The initial rounds were all individual tornadoes it appears, but the later rounds was likely a series of very long-tracking storms.

[CrazyC83]

WFUS54 KTSA 151442
TORTSA
ARC007-143-OKC001-151515-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0011.120415T1442Z-120415T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 938 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF PROCTOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION...
A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
CHRISTIE...WESTVILLE...CINCINNATI...WATTS AND SILOAM SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 9430 3583 9479 3595 9480 3600 9480
3617 9458 3616 9457 3618 9457 3626 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1442Z 225DEG 35KT 3593 9475

$$

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN THROUGH SCNTRL
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...

VALID 151425Z - 151600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A
TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 16Z. NEW WW WOULD INCLUDE A PORTION OF NERN
TX...EXTREME ERN OK...WRN AR INTO SRN MO.

SQUALL LINE FROM EXTREME SWRN MO SWWD THROUGH ERN OK AND NERN TX
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD THROUGH NERN TX INTO THE
LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 50 KT LLJ
DEVELOPING SLOWLY NEWD WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NWD
WITH TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CLOUD BREAKS...AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AN AXIS OF 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP NWD
INTO MO. VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LLJ AXIS JUST
EAST OF THE LINE ALONG WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR. DESPITE A
DOMINANT LINEAR MODE...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SOME OF THE STORMS
IN THE LINE TO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO
LIKELY. GIVEN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS...THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 04/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 32569596 34399533 36309428 37689301 37879193 37269131
36149190 32119488 32569596

[apocalypt-flyer]

Scrap that, I cannot spot the difference between dark red and red anymore. Flash flood warning for Joplin.

[MGC]

Trailer parks should be abandoned when there is a tornado watch. How many have been killed in trailers by tornadoes? This is a preventable tragedy.....MGC

[Dave]

This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0177


WOUS64 KWNS 151548
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

TORNADO WATCH 177 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC005-009-015-029-033-047-049-051-065-071-083-087-089-097-101-
105-113-115-127-129-131-137-141-149-152300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0177.120415T1555Z-120415T2300Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CONWAY CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND IZARD
JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY POLK POPE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
STONE VAN BUREN YELL


MOC009-029-043-055-059-065-067-077-091-093-105-125-131-149-153-
161-169-179-203-209-213-215-221-225-229-152300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0177.120415T1555Z-120415T2300Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL
IRON LACLEDE MARIES
MILLER OREGON OZARK
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT


OKC079-152300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0177.120415T1555Z-120415T2300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LE FLORE


ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...LSX...

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF VICHY MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 176. WATCH NUMBER 176 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 1055 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD
AS CELLS MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NEWD WITHIN THE BAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AREAS OF THINNING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WHICH
WILL PERMIT REGIONS OF ENHANCED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WIND PROFILER AND VAD DATA EXHIBIT VERY
STRONG WINDS /50 KT OR GREATER IN THE 1-2 KM AGL LAYER/ AND
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG SHEAR/SRH THAT
WILL PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL SCALE BOW
ECHOES TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...WEISS

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 151627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NERN
IA...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN MN...AND WRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD
INTO ERN TX AND LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD DURING THE
PERIOD REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NEB WILL MOVE TO THE NWRN IA/SWRN MN BORDER
AREA BY THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI AND
SRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 16/12Z. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME WRN MN AND SRN WI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT NWD...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S/ SPREADING NWD INTO SERN MN AND WI. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD
FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MS VALLEY TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE
SRN PART OF THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS ERN AND SRN TX TONIGHT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF THINNING CLOUDS FROM ERN
NEB AND WRN IA INTO SRN MN...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF
NERN IA AND CENTRAL/SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE
DIABATIC HEATING AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE
REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
INCLUDING FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND TORNADOES /A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG/...WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/NEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 03-06Z.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO ERN TX/NWRN LA...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN MO INTO CENTRAL TX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORMS LIKELY
INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
/MLCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J PER KG/. WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT 50+ KT
FLOW BEGINNING IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...WITH THE RESULTANT INTENSE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE BAND.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO NERN MO AND IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DIABATIC
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND A
WEAKENING OF THE CAP. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSLATE NNEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING WITH TIME.
THIS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

..WEISS/COHEN.. 04/15/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1703Z (1:03PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME