Texas Fall-2014

[weatherdude1108]

We were at 35 this morning. Not quite. Guess it is our turn for a more likely first freeze.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
WEST OF I-35 PORTIONS OF THE ESCARPMENT FROM 11 PM CST TONIGHT
THROUGH 10 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING...

.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT IN SOME SPOTS...BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND THEN RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM. MANY AREAS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY THAT STAYED ABOVE FREEZING LAST NIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FEW
SPOTS THAT STAYED ABOVE FREEZING IN GILLESPIE AND KERR COUNTIES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT WEST OF I-35 IN HAYS...TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
WILL HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS AROUND SUNRISE
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE AUSTIN METRO AREA WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TXZ171>173-183>192-131000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FZ.W.0003.141113T0500Z-141113T1600Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
313 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...26 TO 32 DEGREES

* IMPACTS...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY DAMAGE COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS.
EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE. OUTDOOR PETS MAY NEED EXTRA
PROTECTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

[TheProfessor]

According to weatherbug, my temperature only made it to 35 degrees today and now its at 34.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WITH THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGER
AREA THAT SAW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT...AND FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR SAID AREA.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
NIGHT...WHEN WE LOSE ALL CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DECOUPLE. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL INVADE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
EXTREME WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS MINIMAL CHANCE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION...IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT
OUT OF THE AREA...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS STILL SIX
DAYS OUT AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON MONDAY AND DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

[Ntxw]

DFW's high so far today is 39F, with clouds rolling in think we've about peaked.

[gpsnowman]

DFW's high so far today is 39F, with clouds rolling in think we've about peaked.

CBS 11 weather has really gone down on forecasted temps for the next week. Also introduced some possible flurries from DFW to points north Sunday night into Monday. The plot thickens. BTW, where is orangeblood? Have not heard from him during the cold snap.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z PGFS has backed off on moisture but keeps the cold. 18Z GFS is very similar with light precip . Still many runs before the event.

[Texas Snowman]

From Steve McCauley on FB:

"Quick update: the sleet pellets/snow flurries we talked about last night for late this weekend may be a little understated. Although it does not look anything like a multi-inch dumping of snow (a la European Model), it looks like we could get a dusting of snow to go with a few sleet pellets in north Texas by Sunday and Monday as the cold air lingers and a fast moving disturbance passes us by.

Obviously since we are more than 24 hours out, precise totals cannot be predicted, but I may have to modify my sleet/ snow flurry forecast to perhaps a tad more by Sunday night."

So the Stat Method was wrong last night?

[MSUDawg]

From Steve McCauley on FB:

"Quick update: the sleet pellets/snow flurries we talked about last night for late this weekend may be a little understated. Although it does not look anything like a multi-inch dumping of snow (a la European Model), it looks like we could get a dusting of snow to go with a few sleet pellets in north Texas by Sunday and Monday as the cold air lingers and a fast moving disturbance passes us by.

Obviously since we are more than 24 hours out, precise totals cannot be predicted, but I may have to modify my sleet/ snow flurry forecast to perhaps a tad more by Sunday night."

So the Stat Method was wrong last night?

Was just about to post that!! As he notes, really hard to determine that far out. But ill be paying attention close to what he says tomorrow and Friday.

[Texas Snowman]

(In regards to Steve McCauley's post) Ahhh, where's Mississippi State Guy when you need him?!?

[TheProfessor]

Folks around the Waco area could see some light sleet tonight.

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley on FB:

"Quick update: the sleet pellets/snow flurries we talked about last night for late this weekend may be a little understated. Although it does not look anything like a multi-inch dumping of snow (a la European Model), it looks like we could get a dusting of snow to go with a few sleet pellets in north Texas by Sunday and Monday as the cold air lingers and a fast moving disturbance passes us by.

Obviously since we are more than 24 hours out, precise totals cannot be predicted, but I may have to modify my sleet/ snow flurry forecast to perhaps a tad more by Sunday night."

So the Stat Method was wrong last night?

Someone asked him if the Stat Method was coming around to the Euro and this is his reply:

Not even close I am happy to say The SM has flurries and some sleet pellets as of yesterday. But it shows nothing like the crippling winter storm a la Euro Model

[MSUDawg]

:uarrow: (In regards to Steve McCauley's post) Ahhh, where's Mississippi State Guy when you need him?!?

I'm here but I'm not the right Mississippi State guy, lol
Steve McCauley went to MSU, he can count.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Some returns are beginning to show up near the Red River.

[Ntxw]

We have to remember McCauley's stat method is a statistical way of looking at it, based on model runs. It takes a conglomerate of all guidance and weights them accordingly based on skill and consistency. A majority of the time when you follow the best odds you are better off, but that doesn't always work. Sometimes the models do whiff (for instance last Feb with the snow event the stat method turned out wrong) when the snow profiles said yes but the guidance didn't. But make no mistake for a forecasting standpoint it is a great tool he has developed. It cuts down a lot of the "which model is right".

The ENS are still showing a major system crossing the US thanksgiving week. If you have travel plans, may want to keep that in mind.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like some winter precip along the Red River being reported according to wundermap and mping.

[DonWrk]

It's definitely sprinkling along and south of the red river when I came through.

[SouthernMet]

Some returns are beginning to show up near the Red River.

Should be noted the HRRR showed this earlier, albeit very light. The FWD NWS had no mention of this. Denton & FW Alliance are already at 32 & should continue to drop until 7am, this is some solid cold air advection.

[ludosc]

very tiny/light sleet at my house just west of downtown Ft. Worth. Easier to hear than it is to actually see.

[HockeyTx82]

FWD makes mention

[Rgv20]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...

.BRISK NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE ARE ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS
CLEAR...BEFORE FALLING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT. A FEW
HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS AND RURAL AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

TXZ248>250-252-130745-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.A.0007.141114T0700Z-141114T1400Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA
545 PM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS 30 DEGREES.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

* IMPACT...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION EXPOSED TO THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.