Texas Summer 2018

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Haris
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1201 Postby Haris » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:13 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1202 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:32 pm

:uarrow:
Model trends are looking much better for heavy rain in south central TX today. This weekend will hopefully be a very wet one!
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1203 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:53 pm

Awesome outflows across the DFW area and now we are getting an impressive light show up this way.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1204 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:23 pm

come on rain!!! :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1205 Postby Cerlin » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:25 pm

Massive storm above 121 right now!! Huge lightning all across the sky.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1206 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:29 pm

Cerlin wrote:Massive storm above 121 right now!! Huge lightning all across the sky.


funny I thought the storms would die after sunset(so did the mets), seems to be the opposite :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1207 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:42 pm

Some really impressive lightning with some serious green glows!
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1208 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:43 pm

Wow I was just looking out the window huge flash in the backyard the second I do and the power went poof for a few seconds :double: That was weird
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1209 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:55 pm

Hands down the most impressive light show of the summer!
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1210 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:05 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Hands down the most impressive light show of the summer!


This is crazy. I dont even remember lightning like this in the spring :double:

Thats two... three... power surges now
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1211 Postby Cerlin » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:42 pm

It was crazy driving back home. There were more green flashes (I’m assuming electrical arcing) than I had ever seen, one was even a deep royal blue!! :double:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1212 Postby TarrantWx » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:48 pm

Once again, Northern Tarrant County gets the shaft. This afternoon's storms basically stayed South of I-30 and this evening's storms couldn't sink any further South than the Denton/Tarrant line. All we're getting is some light sprinkles and a light show off to the East. So frustrating. I'm going to need some weather Prozac here soon. I'm ready for some synoptic scale rain events.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1213 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:06 pm

Cerlin wrote:It was crazy driving back home. There were more green flashes (I’m assuming electrical arcing) than I had ever seen, one was even a deep royal blue!! :double:


definitely didn't expect that, I had pretty much given up on today and was looking towards the weekend :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1214 Postby Haris » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:31 am

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What happened to all the WTX rain !? It’s over hill co ! Yay
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1215 Postby Haris » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:36 am

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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1216 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:28 am

I’m in the area that still got zip. So close!
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1217 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:07 am

It might rain here. The hill country is already flooding in parts this morning. That's good, because that's where our water source for our sprinklers are.

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 100831
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
331 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Early morning showers that have formed across the Edwards Plateau in
response to residual outflows and lift associated with the stalled
front are a precursor of what is to come throughout the day today.
The NAM, NMM, and ARW all show the front continuing to sag south
through the say on Friday to around a Rocksprings to Austin to La
Grange line which will focus shower and thunderstorm activity more
across South Central Texas. While the focus today will remain along
and near the boundary across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country,
coverage of precipitation should begin to increase today. While
general rainfall amounts today should only be between 1/4 and 1/2
inch brief heavy downpours are possible near the boundary which could
result in higher totals. Because of this WPC has left parts of the
Hill Country in a Day 1 Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

As Friday turns into Saturday all 3 major models (ECMWF, GFS, and
NAM) show the trough axis becoming a cut off low. The location of the
low in the 00z guidance tonight has shifted to be more across North
Central Texas rather than West Texas and the Panhandle like last
nights models showed. This has shifted the higher rainfall totals
beginning Saturday from the Midland/San Angelo area to more San
Angelo/Sonora/Rocksprings. With the washed out boundary around, and
the low pressure across North Texas providing needed lift showers and
storms should become more numerous Friday night into Saturday. The
Day 2 Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall expands over much of the area
west of I-35,
but the main focus for the heaviest rainfall will
remain the Edwards Plateau.

The increased cloud cover and precipitation will have the added
benefit of keeping temperatures down across much of South Central
Texas beginning on Saturday. Highs will only reach into the upper 80s
to lower 90s, which is below seasonal normals. Areas farther to the
south, farther from the front and low will see more sunshine and
lower rain chances resulting in warmer temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Models are coming into better focus that Saturday night through
Sunday night will be the wettest period of this event.
For this 24
hour period the cutoff low will drift across North Texas near the Red
River. Plentiful moisture will be in place, with precipitable water
values of 1.5 to 2 inches for Saturday night through Sunday night.
Residual outflow boundaries, the cutoff low pressure, and the
overnight low level jet will all enhance coverage and intensity of
precipitation. WPC continues the Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall
into Sunday and Sunday night as well. While the focus remains across
the Edwards Plateau for the heaviest rainfall more precipitation is
expected along the I-35 corridor during the Saturday night to Sunday
night timeframe.

With the shifting position of the low pressure system the maxima in
expected rainfall amounts shifted south into Edwards, Real, and Val
Verde County with this round of models. In general areas of the
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains can expect 2 to 3 inches of
rainfall, with isolated totals as high as 4 to 6 inches by the end of
the day Monday. Farther to the east 1 to 2 inches of rain are
possible along the I-35 corridor through Monday
, with totals less
than an inch east of I-35. The new drought monitor that came out
today continued to highlight the increased drought across the Rio
Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau so this rainfall is a welcome
relief to these areas.
Chances for precipitation begin to decrease
through the day on Monday as the low pressure begins to lift
northward.

As the ridge builds across the Southern CONUS the cutoff low will
lift into the Central Plains on Tuesday and open up into a broad
trough as it gets absorbed into the flow across the northern half of
the country. This will translate into a drying and warming trend for
the area for Tuesday through the end of the work week. Highs will
climb from the mid 90s on Tuesday to the upper 90s by Wednesday and
Thursday under partly to mostly sunny skies
.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1218 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:36 am

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0624
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100918Z - 101440Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall should expand across portions of central
TX over the next 2-3 hours with a threat for flash flooding
forecast through 14Z despite dry antecedent conditions. There will
be potential for 3-5 inches of rain by 15Z.

Discussion...GOES 16 "clean window" IR imagery showed a remnant
MCV spinning over west-central TX at 0830Z, located between ABI
and SJT. As has been advertised in a majority of the hi-res
models, convection appears to be expanding in coverage and
intensity with the strongest storm located over McCulloch county
as of 0845Z. The environment as sampled by area GPS sites shows
precipitable water values ranging between 1.8 and 2.1 inches along
with a 200-600 J/kg increase in CAPE over the past 3 hours
coincident with newly developing storms with the 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis page showing 500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE as of 08Z. Flow
aloft was diffluent, with the axis of contraction and associated
enhancement to vertical motion situated over the developing
convection.

Average storm motions have been off toward the east or northeast
at 5-15 kt and locally enhanced southwesterly 850 mb flow of 15-25
kt was evident in VAD wind plots between KDFX and KFWS, just
southeast of the MCV. Short term forecasts by the RAP show a slow
eastward translation of the MCV from west-central TX over the next
6 hours and a corridor of locally stronger 850 mb flow (10-20 kt)
extending from roughly JCT to CRS. These winds will allow for the
potential of back building and training rainfall echoes. Given
tall/skinny CAPE profiles, heavy rainfall with rates of 2-3 in/hr
will be possible along with 6 hour totals of 3-5 inches.

While recent dry conditions across central TX have resulted in
high Flash Flood Guidance values of about 4 inches in 3 hours,
even these high values could be exceeded in a couple of locations
over the next few hours.

Otto


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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1219 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:57 am

Brent wrote:come on rain!!! :lol:


I left out from work yesterday and could see the rain falling to the south of DTN FTW, by the time I got to the house it was pooring with some pretty good claps of thunder. It was a shame the down poor only lasted 10-15 min before falling apart and moving to the south towards Johnson Co.

I hope for more of the same today, just need it to last an hour or two this time. Good thing though, there was no runoff as my lawn is bone dry.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1220 Postby Cerlin » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:32 am

Got a pretty hefty shower in Hebron TX about 30 minutes ago! :D
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