Texas Spring 2023

[rwfromkansas]

Would like a bit more 3+ bumped east, but at least DFW still gets a decent rain. We are close to the cut-off of the bigger totals though.

I am glad to see SW TX up to the Big Country getting bullseyed for once. They need some help on reservoirs, rivers etc.

[Iceresistance]

Random storm in Northern DFW

[Ntxw]

2015ing

[gpsnowman]

Random storm in Northern DFW

Sitting outside watching the pouring rain listening to the thunder feeling the cool breeze. Nice little surprise to start the week.

[Edwards Limestone]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0728.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081803Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts are
possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently developed across parts of
southeast TX. Storm coverage and intensity is expected to increase
with time this afternoon, supported by moderate to strong buoyancy
(MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg), minimal capping, and a remnant MCV
moving across the region. Deep-layer flow is rather weak, but
low-level southeasterly flow veering to westerly aloft is supporting
effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for modestly organized
storms, and a few strong multicells and possibly a marginal
supercell or two could evolve with time.

Some hail threat will be possible with any stronger semi-discrete
cells, given the magnitude of instability. Large PW will also
support a threat of wet microbursts. Eventually, storm/outflow
mergers could result in development of a weakly organized cluster,
with some southwestward backbuilding possible. At this time, watch
issuance is considered unlikely due to the relatively localized
nature of the threat.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2023

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX sometimes has colorful adjectives to describe their forecast discussions. I'm really liking the 2015ish rain projections, although too much at once could be "too much of a good thing."

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
221 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

|The latest GOES 16 satellite imagery, along with the latest regional
radar indicate storms have already started to light up along the
Sierra Madre Oriental Mountain range of northeastern Mexico. The
going thinking is that this convection will merge and grow upscale
into an MCS and move eastward late this afternoon into the evening
hours. After some coordination with SPC, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5) has been reintroduced for the Rio Grande Plains and southern
Edwards Plateau with large hail being the primary concern followed
by damaging winds. Storms will likely start out as hail threats
early evening before transitioning to a wind threat further to the
south over the southern Rio Grande Plains from Eagle Pass southward
into the CRP CWA. The main limiting factor today would be weak flow
aloft, however, with steep mid-level lapse rates and nasty levels of
instability, the thought is that storms will probably develop and
move off the higher terrain and over our western CWA. In fact, after
a cool start over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau
in the lower to middle 60s, rapid warming has taken place as skies
remained clear. Some cumulus have started to bubble up over this
region, but activity is expected to start out west of the border
then move east.

Elsewhere, some of the 12Z CAMs indicated a threat for isolated to
scattered storms to develop over the middle Texas coast and slide
northward into the Coastal Plains early this afternoon. While cu
have started to bubble up over in this region, tops on the DCP RGB
do not indicate robust convection and things are likely still
somewhat capped from this morning`s cloud cover. However, latest
ACARS soundings from AUS indicate that the cap may have already
eroded and convection could fire this afternoon by 20Z.
Additionally, latest SPC RAP mesoanalysis indicates significant
SBCAPE, on the order of 5000-6000 J/kg in place! Shear appears to be
the limiting factor here, but with such extreme instability, it
wouldn`t take much to overcome weak shear.

On Tuesday, the shortwave disturbance over northern Mexico will
become closed off as a mid-level vorticity maximum over the Hill
Country. This should result in cooler temperatures along with
scattered to perhaps more numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing over the I-35 corridor, Hill Country, and Coastal Plains
Tuesday afternoon and evening. As of this writing, Tuesday is very
much so up in the air as far as convective development goes as
Monday`s storms will place a big role in the placement and timing of
storms on Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
instances of flash flooding, especially where storms can train over
the same location.The forecast gets even MORE ACTIVE in the long
term. Please see below for more juicy details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday and Thursday
before the pattern becomes even more active and wetter from Friday
through this upcoming weekend.

While a closed off upper low is expected to exit our area toward the
east-northeast through Wednesday, enough lingering moisture along
with subtle shortwave energy and/or westerly flow aloft near the
southern flank of a stronger upper level system moving through the
Four Corners region should help aid in more diurnally driven
convection. This would be exacerbated by any lingering mesoscale
boundaries and/or features from convection from the day prior. With
temperatures peaking in the 80s for most and into the low 90s along
the Rio Grande, expect for instability to pool where SBCAPE could
exceed 3000 J/kg. Thursday looks to trend slightly higher with
instability as temperatures trend a couple of degrees warmer than
Wednesday and with a little less cloud cover. While the deep layer
shear remains quite modest, it could still remain sufficient enough
to where isolated strong to severe storms could be possible.

While the main upper level low that moved over the Four Corners
region is expected to pivot into the north-central plains into and
through Friday,a sub-tropical jet with the split flow aloft will
approach from the west and this helps to carve out a deeper upper
level trough over the Desert Southwest and across the Baja
California peninsula. These synoptic setups are notorious for
bringing in high amounts of moisture and precipitable water values
across our region are expected to approach 2 inches and into the
97.5 to 99 percentile anomalies for this time of year. The models
are remaining consistent on indicating a heavy rainfall event from
Friday night through the weekend. The midday update of the Day 5
excessive rainfall outlook (12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday) from
the WPC has expanded the slight risk to cover our western and
central portions of our CWA within a slight risk while a marginal
risk exists across the remainder of the area. The latest medium
range and ensemble guidance remains in good agreement with the
potential for several inches of rain with localized amounts that
could exceed 5 inches. As mentioned in the previous long term
forecast discussion, the NBM probabilities continue to indicate
greater than 50% chance of at least 3 inches of rain from Friday
through the weekend. While this is a good sign that a lot of the
area will receive beneficial rainfall, there is the concern for
Flash Flooding, if too much rain comes down in a too short of a
period of time. Otherwise, expect for cooler daytime temperatures
with all the cloud cover and moisture while the overnights will
remain warm and humid. Stay tuned to the forecast during the days
ahead as confidence increases leading up to this potential heavy
rainfall event.

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather/status/1655703889327300610

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather/status/1655703889327300610?s=20

Kountze, TX also got a huge amount of rain today. Just north of Beaumont.

[Ntxw]

Our warmer season tends to be inverse of the Pac NW. If y'all remember a couple of summers ago the Pacific NW had a very hot summer, while Texas had an unusually cool one. Ridges up there equates to cutoff troughs down here.

[Cpv17]

Our warmer season tends to be inverse of the Pac NW. If y'all remember a couple of summers ago the Pacific NW had a very hot summer, while Texas had an unusually cool one. Ridges up there equates to cutoff troughs down here.

https://i.imgur.com/mfuD5Gt.png

SE ridge trying to flex=sharp gradients in rainfall?

[Brent]

I just saw the same qpf graphic from May 2015 and it's eerily similar. I can't unsee it now

[Cpv17]

Looks like a pretty serious flooding situation could be happening around San Antonio this weekend. Looks like between there and Del Rio could get 10+”.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Our warmer season tends to be inverse of the Pac NW. If y'all remember a couple of summers ago the Pacific NW had a very hot summer, while Texas had an unusually cool one. Ridges up there equates to cutoff troughs down here.

https://i.imgur.com/mfuD5Gt.png

Ridge up there means no ridge in TX too. Great news!

[Bhow]

Interesting to watch that stationary low swirl right over San Antonio. HRRR puts the bullseye east of Austin, NAM puts it over Austin.

[txtwister78]

Looks like a pretty serious flooding situation could be happening around San Antonio this weekend. Looks like between there and Del Rio could get 10+”.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1655894130298433536

[wxman22]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.ibb.co/RTQLXXh/wpc-excessive-rainfall-day1-us-sc.png

https://i.ibb.co/PDM64JN/wpc-excessive-rainfall-dty2-us-sc.png

On the Experimental D5, there is already a Moderate for San Antonio.

[jasons2k]

Getting a lot of lightning and thunder with today’s storm complex. Had .95” yesterday. It’s piling up now.

[Iceresistance]

Houston International has gotten 2 inches in 24 hours.

[Bhow]

Meso low 1 looks to be washing out around San Marcos followed by a new one near Uvalde. Been an odd radar presentation with all the spinning throughout the day in sctx.