MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 AM CDT THU APR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW INTO CNTRL VA
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 131651Z - 131845Z
   
   DESPITE INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH AND INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   ...SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHY HAVE PROVEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS OCCURRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST CHARLOTTESVILLE...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
   NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. 
   
   EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO/THROUGH THE CHARLOTTESVILLE
   AREAS BY 18-19Z...WHEN DEVELOPING STORMS MAY BECOME ROOTED IN A DEEP
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS.
   HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS MAY OCCUR IN
   STRONGER CELLS...AND DOWNBURSTS ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...
   GIVEN LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...STRONGER STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED...AND ANY
   SEVERE THREAT RATHER HIGHLY LOCALIZED.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
   
   38767828 38767786 38377751 37857743 37577809 37547856
   37257915 37177984 37358002 37657975 38137936 38447912
   38667866

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN / NERN IA / SWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132159Z - 140000Z
   
   MODIFIED TAMDAR/ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT
   WHERE IT HAS HEATED INTO THE UPPER 80S...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
   HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL IA TOWARD ALO.
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS WRN IA WHERE IT
   HAS BECOME HOT...WITH RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DEEP MIXED
   LAYER EXTENDING TO 700 MB WITH ONLY UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS.
   
   ALTHOUGH CU FIELD IS INCREASING OVER W CENTRAL IA...FOCUS FOR
   DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WEAK...WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN
   SURFACE TROUGH. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
   BE FARTHER NE ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI WHERE
   CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST AND BENEATH WEAKER CAP. 18Z PARALLEL
   NAM RUN INDICATES STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 00Z OVER SERN MN WITH
   MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO ERN IA. IF THIS OCCURS...A FEW
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...WITH
   MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT...TRANSITIONING TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   WITH TIME AS STORMS EVOLVE SEWD AND COLD POOL GROWS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   45189142 44719003 43568900 42658884 42038910 41619037
   41559125 41739222 42329388 43019448 43579395 43989356
   44879314 45079246

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN NY INTO FAR NERN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132312Z - 140015Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
   NY INTO FAR NERN PA THROUGH 00-01Z...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING AFTER
   SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
   
   EXIT REGION OF WNWLY 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER LAKE HURON/LAKE
   ERIE COMBINED WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES /-22 TO -24 C/ WILL
   MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  30-35 KT
   OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL AS THE
   PRIMARY THREAT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE
   COVERAGE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   43207809 43227659 43487602 43417553 43057527 42527442
   41747524 41767676 42557814

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / SWRN WI / NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...
   
   VALID 140058Z - 140230Z
   
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITHIN WW 178.
   FARTHER E...ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NRN IL AND FAR SRN
   WI.
   
   CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND WILL LIKELY
   MERGE INTO ONE LARGE MCS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
   AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO IL AND SRN WI. THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES WITH
   INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS EXISTS...HOWEVER PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND RELATIVELY LOW
   BOUNDARY LAYER RH SUGGEST ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE BRIEF. THIS
   THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS STORMS MERGE.
   
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DIRECTLY AHEAD OF MCS IS WEAK AS SEEN ON 00Z
   ILX SOUNDING...SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SYSTEM FROM
   THE SW. GIVEN LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DOWNSTREAM...ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS COULD RESULT.
   THEREFORE...A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED E OF CURRENT WATCH.
   
   FARTHER N INTO WRN WI AND SERN MN...ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
   REMAIN FOR SVR TSTORMS WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING
   ACROSS FAR WRN WI ALONG WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY POSE A WIND AND
   HAIL THREAT BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE COMPARED TO ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
   WHERE INSTABILITY POOL IS LARGER.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   40438757 41099387 44269319 44739194 44879131 43788782
   43088794

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140106Z - 140230Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE POTENTIAL...EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY MID EVENING /AROUND 03Z/ ACROSS WEST
   CENTRAL WI THEN SPREAD ESEWD.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED NORTH OF WW 178
   FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.
   
   LATEST LIGHTNING DATA/SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
   CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD IS ASSOCIATED WITH
   LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH SRN CANADA/ND SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH.  WEAK INSTABILITY OVER ERN ND SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
   THREAT WITH PRESENT ACTIVITY OVER THAT REGION.
   
   AT 00Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL MN SEWD ACROSS NRN
   IL/NRN IND.  STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ ACROSS ERN IA/IL INTO CENTRAL
   WI WILL PROVIDE A FEED OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
   STORMS ONCE THEY DEVELOP ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL WI.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WEST CENTRAL
   WI /POTENTIALLY ERN MN/ BY 03Z AS THE ASCENT NOW LOCATED OVER ERN
   ND/SD ENCOUNTERS THE GREATER INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST. HAIL SHOULD
   BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS MUCH OF THIS EXPECTED NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL
   LIKELY BE ELEVATED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   44549253 44909294 45839293 45839129 45508972 45088889
   44288914 44299023 44629096 44639195

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1031 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/CENTRAL-SRN WI/NRN IL/FAR NWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...179...
   
   VALID 140331Z - 140430Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY SERN PART OF WW 178
   AND MUCH OF WW 179.  NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR SWRN LOWER MI AND
   CENTRAL/NRN IND BY 04Z.
   
   HP SUPERCELL CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE IL COUNTIES OF ROCK
   ISLAND...MERCER AND HENRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ALONG
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH EXTENDED SEWD INTO CENTRAL TO SERN
   IL.  MEANWHILE...STRONGEST LEFT MOVING STORMS OVER NRN IL/SRN WI
   HAVE MOVED N OF WARM FRONT SUGGESTING THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD BE HAIL AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE AT 50-55 KT.
   
   50 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN MO INTO NRN IL/SRN WI WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO ONGOING MCS
   ACROSS FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI.  LLJ IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SWLY
   AND TRANSLATE EWD EXTENDING INTO SRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL
   AID DESTABILIZATION FOR MCS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD WITH ATTENDANT
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   44348669 43538471 41598477 39748486 39768887 40249019
   40739065 41059115 41439137 42569140 43339124 44359065
   45048999 45128960 44748719

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI THROUGH ERN HALF OF IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179...181...
   
   VALID 140634Z - 140800Z
   
   OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR MCS TO DEVELOP ESEWD. STRONGEST STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON WRN AND SWRN FLANKS OF THE MCS ACROSS E
   CNTRL IL NEXT FEW HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OTHER
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SERN WI
   AND LAKE MI. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF ERN IL AND
   WRN IND SHORTLY.
   
   A RATHER LARGE MCS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES
   FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IL INTO SERN WI. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO
   2000 J/KG W OF THE MCS OVER WRN IL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
   STRONG...AOA 55 KT...BUT GRADUALLY VEER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
   EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA. WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INITIATION THROUGH THE
   EARLY MORNING. STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN ON WRN FLANKS OF THE MCS
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN IL WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS IMPINGING ON
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
   RELATIVE TO THE MOST UNSTABLE INFLOW TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY
   NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO
   SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
   
   41408741 38498779 38668931 41168974 43968883 43778704

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IND...NRN KY AND SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140814Z - 140945Z
   
   STRONGEST STORMS PERSIST ON SRN END OF MCS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   SERN IND AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NRN KY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ACTIVITY
   MAY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WW 182 BY 09Z. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING
   IS THAT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD SEWD. UNLESS TRENDS
   BEGIN TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WW S OF WW 182 WILL PROBABLY
   NOT BE NECESSARY.
   
   STRONG STORM ON SRN END OF MCS NEAR MORGANTOWN IS MOVING SEWD AT
   ABOUT 40 KT AND MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO FORWARD PROPAGATING.
   STRONGEST LIFT AND FEED OF HIGHER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   WLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ON THE WRN FLANKS OF THE MCS.
   HOWEVER...SOME WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS ALSO OCCURRING AND
   IS CONTRIBUTING TO A STRENGTHENING CAP. AS ACTIVITY MOVES SWD IT
   WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AS WELL AS WEAKER
   INSTABILITY...AND THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY SERVE AS AN OVERALL
   LIMITING FACTOR. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST SE OF WW 182 INTO
   PARTS OF SRN IND...BUT UNLESS STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION
   ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   38458661 38808554 39218457 38768361 38138411 37858649

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...EXTREME NERN MO INTO W CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141220Z - 141415Z
   
   CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS SERN IA INTO W CNTRL IL THIS
   MORNING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS OVER SRN IA TO INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. IF STORMS INTENSIFY...LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
   JET WERE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. COUPLED WITH THE
   MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS A BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS
   ACROSS NRN MO INTO SRN IA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   WITHIN THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN IA AND SPREAD EWD WITH TIME.
   CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ELEVATED AND DEVELOPING ABOVE A STRONG CAP
   OVER SRN IA. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE DVN 12Z
   RAOB SHOW THAT THE CAP FOR ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR THE 850
   MB LAYER WEAKENS WITH ERN EXTENT TOWARD W CNTRL IL. MUCAPE IS AROUND
   2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C/KM.
   THESE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   UPDRAFT ROTATION WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IF STORMS
   BEGIN TO REALIZE INFLOW NEAR THE 850-800 MB LAYER AS THEY DEVELOP
   EWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...
   
   39888982 40049138 40699221 41279142 40908943

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL/SRN IND...WRN OH AND N CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...
   
   VALID 141505Z - 141630Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  AREAS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
   OF WW 183 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WWS...WHICH LIKELY WILL
   BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SEEMS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WEST
   CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THIS IS OCCURRING WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT IN ITS WAKE...STRONG WARM
   ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST
   CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THIS MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   WITH AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
   ILLINOIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   MEANWHILE...35 TO 50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID
   DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF EXPANDING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BASED ABOVE
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT CAPE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL
   ...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN SUB CLOUD LAYER ARE ALREADY
   PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES
   THE CHAMPAIGN AREA.
   
   BY MID AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID
   80S...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR STORMS TO BECOME INCREASING BASED IN
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD
   BECOME FOCUSED ON STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL...WHICH WILL
   LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL...POSSIBLY ACROSS THE INDIANAPOLIS/CINCINNATI AND
   LOUISVILLE AREAS DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   40328974 40688887 40618750 40488652 40308554 39838429
   39108410 38588447 38228525 38088627 38408708 38858824
   39959092

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141718Z - 141845Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON FROM WV INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL VA. WILL MONITOR FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ESE ACROSS
   FAR EASTERN WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A PERSISTENT NATURE OF
   THE COMPLEX EXHIBITED BY COLD CLOUD TOPS VIA IR SATELLITE AND ACTIVE
   CG LIGHTNING TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS MODERATE
   CLEARING IN WAKE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CURRENTLY NEARING THE
   COASTAL PORTIONS OF VA/NC...BACK INTO SOUTHERN OH WHERE THE MOST
   AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS ARE
   CURRENTLY MODEST INVOF THE APPALACHIANS...AMPLE INSOLATION AND
   INSTABILITY FEED FROM THE WEST/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO A
   PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS
   DESTABILIZATION...WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A MIXED MODE
   OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING
   WIND/LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   39437950 39387895 39077773 37457799 36877995 37118137
   37588192 39078163 39408028

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL THROUGH INDIANA INTO WRN OH...PARTS OF N
   CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...
   
   VALID 141846Z - 142015Z
   
   WW 183 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY CURRENT 20Z EXPIRATION.
   
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.  HOWEVER
   ...CAPPING...ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL WARMING...NOW APPEARS A BIT
   STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  THIS HAS INHIBITED INITIATION OF
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
   COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING STORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
   
   NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NOW ONGOING SOUTHEAST OF CHICAGO INTO
   AREAS NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS...APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG 700 MB
   THERMAL GRADIENT...WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE
   CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKER INHIBITION.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY
   CURRENTLY BE SURFACE BASED...AND SEEMS TO OFFER BEST POTENTIAL FOR
   INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER  AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD
   NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH 21-22Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   41128692 41228588 41358489 40928347 40218267 39448284
   38848347 39078450 39418579 39788695 40428756

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL
   INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 142148Z - 142315Z
   
   MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
   CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST GIVEN INITIATION OF DEEP
   CONVECTION...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...GRADUALLY DEEPENING CU FIELD
   CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE QUAD
   CITIES INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL IL. MASS FIELDS/AIRMASS QUALITY
   CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...AND RENEWED
   BOUT OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC
   COLD FRONT AND/OR INVOF MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL IL...FURTHER AIDED BY GLANCING ASCENT VIA SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODIFIED 18Z DAVENPORT IA RAOB SUGGESTS
   NEGLIGIBLE CINH NOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AT THIS
   TIME...WITH A SIMILAR DESTABILIZATION TREND OBSERVED IN RECENT 21Z
   LINCOLN IL RAOB. THESE ADJUSTED SOUNDINGS COUPLED WITH RUC GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS MLCAPE OF 1750-2250 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   IL.
   
   GIVEN INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A DISTINCT
   POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE
   ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS OR GREATER WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
   ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN VICINITY OF MODIFYING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED...NAMELY FROM NORTH
   CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IL...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST
   INDIANA.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   41499020 42178898 42138808 41268617 39378735 38988985
   39239051 40019105 40819088

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IND/OH/NRN KY/WRN PA/WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184...
   
   VALID 142154Z - 142300Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 184 THROUGH THE
   EVENING. 
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN OH/WRN
   PA AND MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL WV.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
   THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN HALF OF IND EWD INTO
   WRN/CENTRAL OH...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING DOWNSTREAM
   INTO WRN PA AND MUCH OF WV.  DESPITE THIS CLOUD SHIELD...AIR MASS
   EAST OF WW 184 HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM ERN OH/SWRN PA/WV WSWWD ACROSS SRN OH/NRN
   KY INTO CENTRAL/SRN IND.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS EAST OF WW 184 THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   APPARENT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PER WV IMAGERY ACROSS IND AND
   OH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE ACROSS WW 184 TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...
   
   38778674 41348698 41698670 41398445 41248030 40217969
   38558008 37938021 38238269 38428562

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...187...
   
   VALID 142357Z - 150130Z
   
   TORNADO WATCHES 185/187 CONTINUE UNTIL 05Z. PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT
   /INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES/ EXISTS FROM
   NORTHEAST IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   SCATTERED SUPERCELLS /WITH HISTORY OF AT LEAST ONE TORNADO ALREADY
   IN LA SALLE COUNTY IL/ CONTINUE FROM NORTHEAST IL INTO CENTRAL
   INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES...WILL EXIST ALONG/JUST NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT EXISTS ROUGHLY NW-SE FROM
   NEAR KANKAKEE IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR LAFAYETTE AND THE
   INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA. THIS CORRIDOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY BACKED
   LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY LARGE
   HAIL WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   40389050 41198961 41668811 41008656 40348503 39408559
   39428685 39588959 39589063

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150051Z - 150215Z
   
   TORNADO WATCHES 185/187 CONTINUE UNTIL 05Z. PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT
   /INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES/ CONTINUES FROM
   NORTHEAST IL/FAR EAST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. A POTENTIALLY
   DANGEROUS SITUATION MAY DEVELOP INTO THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA BY
   02Z/10 PM LOCAL TIME.
   
   SCATTERED SUPERCELLS /WITH HISTORY OF TORNADOES/ CONTINUE FROM
   NORTHEAST IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME. PRIMARY TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR
   TWO...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL REMAIN IN AREAS ALONG/JUST
   NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE
   THAT IS ROUGHLY ORIENTED NW-SE FROM NEAR KANKAKEE IL INTO CENTRAL
   INDIANA NEAR LAFAYETTE AND THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA.
   
   AIDED BY A SUB-SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW...THIS CORRIDOR IS CHARACTERIZED
   BY A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS /00Z LINCOLN IL RAOB/...BACKED LOW
   LEVEL FLOW/ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   INTENSE SUPERCELL IN MONTGOMERY/TIPPECANOE COUNTIES INDIANA MAY
   APPROACH THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA BY AROUND 02Z. VERY LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THESE ONGOING
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   40339030 41138935 41668811 41008656 40348503 39158544
   39138691 39588959 39849025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0812 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN OH/SW-SOUTH CENTRAL PA/WV/WRN-NRN VA/WRN
   MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...
   
   VALID 150112Z - 150245Z
   
   ...EAST OF WW 186...
   AREA OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN PA THROUGH ERN
   WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  STABILIZATION PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   ALONG/E OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /EAST OF WW 186/ GIVEN THE LOSS
   OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS HAS BEEN INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
   VA DURING THE LAST HOUR /SINCE 2330Z/. GIVEN THIS TREND AND LIMITED
   TIME/SPACE OF SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 186...A NEW WW IS NOT
   WARRANTED.  STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER RNK/IAD 00Z
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CORES THROUGH 02-03Z.
   
   ...PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL OH/WRN WV...
   AIR MASS ACROSS THIS PART OF WW 186 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.  UPSTREAM
   STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SWRN OH/SERN IND...SHOULD TRACK
   ESE INTO SWRN PART OF WW 186 BY 02-03Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...
   
   39538266 39088087 40287902 39887777 38797761 37617895
   36918031 37188152 38038268 38828278

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1038 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL-SERN IND/SWRN OH/NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...188...
   
   VALID 150338Z - 150515Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN IND INTO
   PARTS OF CINCINNATI METRO AREA THROUGH 05Z.  THEREAFTER...
   STABILIZING AIR MASS IN WAKE OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN OH
   SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT FARTHER SEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OH AND
   THE REST OF NRN KY.
   
   LATE EVENING SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL IND /WARREN AND FOUNTAIN COUNTIES/ SEWD
   ACROSS FAR NRN KY /JUST S OF CVG/ AND THEN ESEWD INTO NERN KY TO
   CENTRAL WV.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN OH
   HAVE CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED/STABILIZED THE AIR MASS ALONG/N OF THIS
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  50 KT WSWLY LLJ LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING DESTABILIZATION/SHEAR TO SUPPORT
   ONGOING CENTRAL/SERN IND STORM CLUSTERS AS THIS ACTIVITY REACHES THE
   CINCINNATI METRO AREA BETWEEN 04-05Z.  DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   38938684 39818675 40478590 40388455 39758276 38298321
   38358481 38748564 38678674

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL OH AND CENTRAL/SRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...
   
   VALID 150405Z - 150500Z
   
   WW 186 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05Z.
   
   MOST OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 186 FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
   OH INTO CENTRAL/SRN WV HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED BY EARLIER
   AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT HAVING
   DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST HOUR.  STRONGEST STORMS AT
   THIS TIME ARE LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM AROUND THE CINCINNATI OH AREA...
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENING PRIOR TO REACHING WW 186.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...
   
   39238259 39088171 38427965 38018007 37898074 37208143
   37178166 37608227 38518280

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...
   
   VALID 150417Z - 150445Z
   
   WW 187 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.
   
   STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 187 WERE LOCATED OVER RUSH/
   DECATUR COUNTIES AND MOVING SEWD AT 40 KT.  OVERALL DECREASING TREND
   IN SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES
   INTO MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF WW 188 BY 0430-05Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   38918683 39818642 40468560 40448493 39298540 38888559
   38768604 38678665