Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't see anything with teleconnections as of yet that would lead to cooler air down here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFS run for 12/26 calling for max temps across Big Bend of North Florida in the upper 30s and lower 40s for the Jax metro area. Min temps low to mid 20s Big Bend region next Wednesday morning (12/27) and upper 20s to near 30 Jax metro (12/27)

Old Man Winter is coming just after Christmas , especially North Florida.

18Z GFS shows massive 1063 Arctic High pushing down into the Central Plains by next Wednesday morning. Should the GFS run verify, very cold modified arctic air will sink all the way to the Gulf Coast and into Florida.


18Z GFS is showing 38 degrees next Wednesday morning (12/27) in Orlando and only a max temp.of 51 on that day.

Keep monitoring this of course....

[boca]

Orlando will be 51 and South Florida will be 81,just kidding and I hope we get into the cooler air as well

[psyclone]

A more likely scenario is the arctic airmass slowly grinds southeast and erodes the southeast ridge with time. the 8-14 day outlook continues to hint at such a scenario with decreasing areal coverage of above normal anoms while introducing below normal temps into northern FL. I don't buy the GFS cold. I do expect our warm oasis to gradually vanish with time as this sort of cold slowly pancakes out and modifies. the shallow cold will likely win at some point but it will be a slow process.

[northjaxpro]

That would not be shocking with these type of arctic boundaries. The cold front on the GFS looks to stall out over South Florida for right now. Just have to follow the model runs the next several days. That Arctic High is forecasted to be very strong, so if I was to hedge a bet, that shallow cold air.mass may push down through the southern peninsula by Thursday (12/28).

[boca]

I would think that a 1063 high would cool the whole state off but if the front stalls over S Florida it might be Seattle weather down here.

[chaser1]

Hmmmmm, I'm with Payclone on this one. So far i'm just seeing the upper pattern remaining a good deal more zonal than what we saw up to recent. Thats not too suggest that such a strong surface high couldnt advect some far cooler air down here. Even if it did, AND remained Northerly for perhaps a day..... I still see the cooling impact primarily causing a day or two high temps to be closer to normal, but with mid level heights being as projected its really hard for me to fathom Orlando low temps going lower then upper 40's. Obviously, warmer further south

[NDG]

With the forecasted sypnotic set up for the next 7-14 days any cool down will be just to slightly below average temps for central and southern FL if indeed such a dense Arctic high comes down the plains.

[Patrick99]

This may prove tough to fully dislodge....looks like quite a high parked right over us.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[StormingB81]

It's crazy the dense fog that just rolled in off the ocean at 5 in the afternoon

[psyclone]

So it now looks like there's going to be a pretty good spread top to bottom on Christmas day with 80 degree temps confined to south Florida and 70's over central Florida with 60's to the north... based on current estimates. that's a pretty big change from the talk of near record highs on Christmas a few days ago. Longer term there's really not a compelling indication that the cold gets here...in fact, the southern extent of below normal anomalies depicted in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks actually retreated a bit to the north as compared to yesterday. I would remain skeptical of any long range model depictions of cold as they are often way overdone only to relent as the time frame reels in.

[northjaxpro]

We will cool off over North and Central Florida beginning Christmas Day. Shallow cold air mass will get enough of a push to give lows into the 30s by Tuesday morning across the Big Bend area and to near 40 degrees here in Jax on Tuesday morning. Max temps in the upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS showing potential of freeze over portions of North Florida Wednesday morning.

Today's 18Z GFS gets the front down through the peninsula, showing mid-upper 50s for max temps over the central peninsula, and 60-65 for max temps for South Florida on next Tuesday.


The cool down next week will be brief. Temps rebound next Thursday over the peninsula as the return southerly flow will be back in play. It will likely be back into the 70s and low 80s by the end of next week for the peninsula.

[northjaxpro]

Looking just beyond New Year's Day, by the way, we could be seeing quite a significant cool down approaching the Deep South and at least North Florida. I don't want to go too detailed at this time, since this is still 10-14 days out, but just a quick mention of that potential down the road.......

[NDG]

Need that AO to go negative and the PNA to go back way positive like it was 10 days ago for any significant cold air to penetrate the Peninsula, the NAO has been reluctant to go negative since Dec 1st.

[boca]

We had our one week of winter, like NDG said all the ducks have to line up before we get cold and it's just not happening

[psyclone]

If anything Christmas day has trended a bit cooler with the 70 degree isotherm now projected to reside in the vicinity of the I-4 corridor. 80 degree temps look to be squashed into the MIA CWA. For the Tampa Bay area this would be about 15 degrees cooler than last year and much more in line with historical climo where about 4 out of 5 Christmas days are under 80 (often substantially).

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe a little cool down around the New Year. Some signs of teleconnections. Atleast the AO.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

[gatorcane]

Okay GFS, behave yourself. Not how I want to bring in the New Year

[TheStormExpert]

Okay GFS, behave yourself. Not how I want to bring in the New Year

Don’t worry! The 12z GFS completely dropped that New Year’s front.

[TheStormExpert]

Merry Christmas Eve everyone! Looks like the warm weather will continue for the foreseeable future at least as the GFS on yesterdays 12z run dropped the intense New Year's front it forecasted coming through. GFS, you're on the naughty list this year!