Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro and GFS are in good agreement on where the 850mb 0C line sets up in 5 days and it dips down into Central Florida. Look for NWS Tampa and Orlando to lower the overnight lows some for this event in their next forecast package update with 30s looking likely for Tampa and Orlando metro areas.

[psyclone]

Well that would be on par with what just happened in mid December...except a longer duration. We have unsettled, showery weather in the forecast so unless that relents it's going to be a tall order getting under 40 (at least in the coastal areas)...but the breezy conditions and long duration will make for protracted unpleasant conditions. Looks like I'll be getting some more firewood the next couple of days..

[AdamFirst]

CMC remains bullish among the bunch, still showing a statewide freeze on Thursday and Friday mornings.

[gatorcane]

And at 168 hours the Euro is colder than 00Z. This cold would rival what the state saw in early December.

[northjaxpro]

:The new 18Z GFS run is out and it continues to show wrap around moisture grazing the Northeast Florida region as a Low Pressure area is shown undergoing major cyclogenesis late Tuesday through Thursday off the Southeast U.S. coast.

EURO develops Low in the same time frame, but shows a bit more moisture with the upper level disturbance moving just ahead of the base of the amplifying upper trough across Northern Gulf region into North Florida.Interesting that the 12Z EURO was the most aggressive with showing a bit more moisture with the upper shortwave as the other models.

The 18Z NAM late this afternoon shows 1012 mb Low Pressure area, but a bit farther south just off the SE Florida coast by 12Z Wednesday morning.

All 3 model runs show the precipitation field with the Low Pressure area getting very close to Jax area by early Wednesday morning. 540 partial thickness line is shown by all the models to be right into Northeast Florida. It is going to be a real close call with potential wintry precip, but it reasonably could happen if the timing of the precip makes it up in this area before exiting by Wednesday afternoon with the departing Low Pressure.

[StormingB81]

Local met said possible snow flurries as far south as Orlando!!! I can hope lol

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z GFS ensemble mean has gone a little colder with a mean of 33F for Orlando at 96 hours and 31F at 120 hours.

[psyclone]

My NWS forecast is showing 6 consecutive days with highs below 60. I can't remember the last time that happened. The chill episode won't be noteworthy for peak intensity but will be for duration. I sure feel sorry for Yankees who booked the week at Disney looking for balmy temps. talk about rolling snake eyes.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the ECMWF has gone a little colder especially for Friday night. Comparing the 850MB GFS and 2M temps which are near freezing for folks along the I-4 corridor, I would think the ECMWF 2M temps would be even colder as the 850mb line is further south.

Does anybody have the 12Z Euro 2M temps?

[psyclone]

A very close shave by any measure. It won't take much to bring a freeze deep into FL at this point. With the variability of forecasts several days out it's worth keeping an eye on.

[psyclone]

I'm delighted to report that the 6-10 day shows a relaxing of the below normal anomalies across the state and the 8-14 day has us painted in a beautiful shade of orange so we should rebound to near normal by around the 8th or so and above by around the 10th...so this week is the show...at least for the near term.

[StormingB81]

NorthJax,

Local met said flurries are possible as far south as Orlando. I'm in Rockledge near cocoa beach. Do we have even a sliver of a chance?

[northjaxpro]

NorthJax,

Local met said flurries are possible as far south as Orlando. I'm in Rockledge near cocoa beach. Do we have even a sliver of a chance?

It depends on.2 major factors. Both the NAM and the GFS earlier today has indicated that the upper trough axis is forecast to sharpen deeply as the upper level shortwave phases with the northern polar jet to get rapid cyclogenesis going off the Florida East beginning Wednesday. Should the upper trough become more negative tilted, that would draw the Low Pressure a bit closer to the coast, which the aforementioned models were hinting. The colder airmass and thermal profiles across North Florida most definitely would be sufficient to support wintry precip.

Now, wintry mix could be possible south into areas possibly as far south as Central Florida IF the moisture is still in place before the Low Pressure area pulls away from the region as the cold air arrives down into that part of the state.

One thing to keep in mind is that the orientation of the Arctic High will be a very important factor. The High will be dropping into the Central Plains region and build down into the Deep South region. The flow will be generally.north/northeast across the peninsula. There will be an onshore flow near the immediate coast, which moderates the air temps at the coast. The farther inland within 30-50 miles from the coast, the coldest air will be entrenched.

I think the best potential of wintry precip will be over interior Northeast Florida. away from the immediate coast. That is why the critical question will be how far on the northwest edge of the Low Pressure area will the precip penetrate inland within the cold air mass that will be in place.

Lots to analyze the next few days!!

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM has a freeze deep into the interior sections of the FL peninsula with 34F in Ft Myers.

[northjaxpro]

I have this morning touched on this in the Deep South Thread, but. quick mention that NWS Jax WFO now has 60% probability of rain, sleet and snow across Northeast Florida and up into Southeast Georgia for Wednesday..

We could be looking at the potential of a very significant coastal. winter storm not seen in this part of the world since the historic December 1989 Christmas Southeast U.S. coastal winter storm

Looks like extremely interesting times coming up for us here in Jax area and across the whole area for the immediate short term, plus with the arctic cold entrenched over the region for all this week!!



More later...

[StormingB81]

Local met calling for flurries possible mixing in

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax WFO has increased the probability even further, now up to 70% for the potential wintry precipitation for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia on Wednesday.

Arctic boundary has passed through the extreme Northeast Florida area as of late this morning. Light rain/drizzle continues and stiff. north wind 15-20 mph with some higher gusts. Wind chill is in the upper 20s currently. Current temp 37.2 degrees here at my home station. Temps staying put today. Clouds, rain and strong cold air advection is locked on place today here.

[gatorcane]

26F in Milton NAS with a windchill of 16F in the panhandle and 74F in Miami. Talk about a stark contrast.

[NDG]

NWS Jax WFO has increased the probability even further, now up to 70% for the potential wintry precipitation for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia on Wednesday.

Arctic boundary has passed through the extreme Northeast Florida area as of late this morning. Light rain/drizzle continues and stiff. north wind 15-20 mph with some higher gusts. Wind chill is in the upper 20s currently. Current temp 37.2 degrees here at my home station. Temps staying put today. Clouds, rain and strong cold air advection is locked on place today here.

Happy New Year!
Forecast sounding for the Jax area by the GFS does indeed show the chance for frozen precip in your area but of only sleet and or freezing rain before the moisture moves out on Wednesday, unfortunately not much chance of any snow, maybe some flurries as the drier air moves in and gets some wet bulb cooling for some some snow flurries to form.

[NDG]

Local met calling for flurries possible mixing in

For our area?
I think the chances are slim to none, the sounding forecast by the GFS does not support it. People around here think that because temps are in the 40s with light drizzle they think that it is light flurries falling down when the freezing level is a good 9k feet above the ground and the lower atmosphere is solidly saturated for wet bulb cooling not to take into effect.