MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151725Z - 151830Z
A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ELEVATED...WITH THE THREAT FOR ANY SVR STORMS BEING
MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. ACCORDINGLY...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/SLOWLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT EAST OF A MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER CNTRL
NEB...AND A REGION OF DCVA NORTHEAST OF THE VORT. SIOUX FALLS VWP
DATA INDICATE THE STRONG WAA PATTERN WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY VEERING
WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SFC. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SITUATED OVER FAR ERN SD INTO
CNTRL MN...AND POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-45 KT JUXTAPOSED
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...AS THE SFC WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
EXPERIENCES LITTLE NWD MOTION. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. WITH ONLY ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL EXPECTED OWING TO THE LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2012
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 45389729 45999569 46039365 45529341 45189374 44269584
43469664 43239760 43799842 44649816 45389729
Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN NEB AND FAR SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151818Z - 151945Z
A FEW STORMS COULD INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE
ANTICIPATED VERY MARGINAL/ISOLATED THREAT FOR ANY SVR STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
EARLY-AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW 30 MILES ESE OF BROKEN BOW NEB TO 35 MILES NNW OF
SIOUX CITY IA. NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT...MODESTLY
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S -- IS
PRESENT COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SE/S WHERE DEEPER
MIXING INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
30S TO THE 40S. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY OF MIXING
NWWD INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE CNTRL NEB SFC LOW MOVES NNEWD
TOWARD A REGION OF ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD LINE ALIGNING WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL REMAIN A SOURCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL
VORTICITY AND CONVERGENCE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINTS NEAR AND
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...BENEATH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/COLD
CORE...MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
BUOYANCY /I.E. 0-3-KM MLCAPE VALUES REACHING OVER 100 J PER KG IN
SOME AREAS/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD PROMOTE STRETCHING OF VERTICAL
VORTICITY...AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT
FOR A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2012
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41459847 41089868 41019917 41529960 42079909 42569830
42979700 42709662 42429711 42109780 41459847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN NEB AND FAR SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151818Z - 151945Z
A FEW STORMS COULD INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE
ANTICIPATED VERY MARGINAL/ISOLATED THREAT FOR ANY SVR STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
EARLY-AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW 30 MILES ESE OF BROKEN BOW NEB TO 35 MILES NNW OF
SIOUX CITY IA. NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT...MODESTLY
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S -- IS
PRESENT COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SE/S WHERE DEEPER
MIXING INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
30S TO THE 40S. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY OF MIXING
NWWD INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE CNTRL NEB SFC LOW MOVES NNEWD
TOWARD A REGION OF ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD LINE ALIGNING WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT...WHICH WILL REMAIN A SOURCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL
VORTICITY AND CONVERGENCE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINTS NEAR AND
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...BENEATH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/COLD
CORE...MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
BUOYANCY /I.E. 0-3-KM MLCAPE VALUES REACHING OVER 100 J PER KG IN
SOME AREAS/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD PROMOTE STRETCHING OF VERTICAL
VORTICITY...AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT
FOR A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2012
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41459847 41089868 41019917 41529960 42079909 42569830
42979700 42709662 42429711 42109780 41459847
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 177...
VALID 151838Z - 152015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 177 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS FROM NWRN AR THROUGH SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE LINE
ACROSS SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MO APPEARS TO BE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
LLJ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINING LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN
WARM SECTOR. LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN MO THROUGH WRN AR WILL MOVE
EWD THROUGH THIS REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF
MLCAPE FROM BELOW 500 J/KG OVER SRN MO TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER NWRN
AND CNTRL AR. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY WARMS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES
WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND.
OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN WAKE OF INITIAL LINE OVER SWRN
THROUGH CNTRL MO AND MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD AT AROUND 75 KT. THESE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT NEAR JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND VORT LOBE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
OVERTAKING THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS. RAPID MOVEMENT OF THESE
STORMS SUGGESTS THEY ARE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE LEADING CONVECTION...BUT ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
DEEP LAYER WINDS AND UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2012
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34319453 35999423 37959271 38239107 37139117 34279335
34319453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 177...
VALID 151838Z - 152015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 177 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS FROM NWRN AR THROUGH SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE LINE
ACROSS SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MO APPEARS TO BE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
LLJ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINING LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN
WARM SECTOR. LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN MO THROUGH WRN AR WILL MOVE
EWD THROUGH THIS REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF
MLCAPE FROM BELOW 500 J/KG OVER SRN MO TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER NWRN
AND CNTRL AR. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY WARMS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES
WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND.
OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN WAKE OF INITIAL LINE OVER SWRN
THROUGH CNTRL MO AND MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD AT AROUND 75 KT. THESE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT NEAR JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND VORT LOBE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
OVERTAKING THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS. RAPID MOVEMENT OF THESE
STORMS SUGGESTS THEY ARE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE LEADING CONVECTION...BUT ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
DEEP LAYER WINDS AND UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2012
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34319453 35999423 37959271 38239107 37139117 34279335
34319453
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CrazyC83
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- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA...SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151856Z - 152030Z
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM A TRIPLE POINT
30 MILES SE OF SIOUX FALLS SD...WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING ENEWD FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI. INHIBITION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO ERODE...WITH THE MODIFIED
MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL 18Z RAOB ACCOUNTING FOR SFC OBS IN THE WARM
SECTOR INDICATING UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NEAR-ZERO
CINH. A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF CONFLUENCE ALIGNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIALLY BECOMING
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 1930Z AND 21Z AS
DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES TO THE EAST. ALREADY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MODEST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BANDS OF CUMULUS
NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN WRN IA. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPER
CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SVR GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-70 KT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE SFC
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2012
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41949325 41609457 41809547 42429585 43729628 44479528
44979382 44839301 44209248 43519224 42959240 41949325
0156 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA...SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151856Z - 152030Z
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM A TRIPLE POINT
30 MILES SE OF SIOUX FALLS SD...WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING ENEWD FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI. INHIBITION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO ERODE...WITH THE MODIFIED
MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL 18Z RAOB ACCOUNTING FOR SFC OBS IN THE WARM
SECTOR INDICATING UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NEAR-ZERO
CINH. A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF CONFLUENCE ALIGNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIALLY BECOMING
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 1930Z AND 21Z AS
DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES TO THE EAST. ALREADY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MODEST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BANDS OF CUMULUS
NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN WRN IA. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPER
CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SVR GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-70 KT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE SFC
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2012
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41949325 41609457 41809547 42429585 43729628 44479528
44979382 44839301 44209248 43519224 42959240 41949325
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15
NADO WARNING
NEC107-152000-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0008.120415T1911Z-120415T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
211 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 210 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO
9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORCHARD...OR 26 MILES EAST OF ONEILL. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4261 9814 4256 9802 4243 9803 4243 9811
4244 9819 4244 9820 4256 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 184DEG 8KT 4244 9812
$$
DEWALD
NEC107-152000-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0008.120415T1911Z-120415T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
211 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 210 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO
9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORCHARD...OR 26 MILES EAST OF ONEILL. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4261 9814 4256 9802 4243 9803 4243 9811
4244 9819 4244 9820 4256 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 184DEG 8KT 4244 9812
$$
DEWALD
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CrazyC83
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- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15
SPC AC 151957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SRN MN...WRN WI...NERN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX NWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...
...CNTRL AND SRN MN...IA...WI...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING AND HEATING OCCURRING E OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH EXTENDED SWD ACROSS WRN IA EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
SERN SD. A WARM FRONT WAS SLOWLY LIFTING/MIXING NWD ACROSS THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA...EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES INSTABILITY INCREASING AS MOISTURE LIFTS NWD BENEATH
COOLER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. SHEAR IS VERY STRONG PER AREA VWPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE 18Z OBSERVED MPX SOUNDING SUGGESTED THE WARM
FRONT IS WEAKLY SLOPED AND WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS...REVEALS LITTLE CIN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM E OF
THE SURFACE LOW...NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORMS
THAT FORM AND RIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES AND
ALSO SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL IS LIKELY AS WELL. THE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING AS CELLS CONTINUE
ACROSS WI.
HAVE MOVED THE MDT RISK AREA BODILY NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM FRONT
POSITION AS WELL AS DRYING AND DECREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION
GENERALLY S OF I-80.
...MO AND IL SWD ACROSS AR...LA...AND ERN TX...
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM MO SWD INTO TX HAVE BEEN LARGELY
UNDER PRODUCTIVE IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUS FAR...BUT EXTREME SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN AND THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH ACTIVITY THAT
FORMS ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THAT CAN OUTRUN THE EWD MOVING
OUTFLOW. SMALL BOWS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS OR EMBEDDED AREAS OF
ROTATION MAY OCCUR.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SRN MN...WRN WI...NERN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX NWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...
...CNTRL AND SRN MN...IA...WI...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING AND HEATING OCCURRING E OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH EXTENDED SWD ACROSS WRN IA EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER
SERN SD. A WARM FRONT WAS SLOWLY LIFTING/MIXING NWD ACROSS THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA...EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES INSTABILITY INCREASING AS MOISTURE LIFTS NWD BENEATH
COOLER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. SHEAR IS VERY STRONG PER AREA VWPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE 18Z OBSERVED MPX SOUNDING SUGGESTED THE WARM
FRONT IS WEAKLY SLOPED AND WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS...REVEALS LITTLE CIN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM E OF
THE SURFACE LOW...NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORMS
THAT FORM AND RIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES AND
ALSO SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL IS LIKELY AS WELL. THE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING AS CELLS CONTINUE
ACROSS WI.
HAVE MOVED THE MDT RISK AREA BODILY NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM FRONT
POSITION AS WELL AS DRYING AND DECREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION
GENERALLY S OF I-80.
...MO AND IL SWD ACROSS AR...LA...AND ERN TX...
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM MO SWD INTO TX HAVE BEEN LARGELY
UNDER PRODUCTIVE IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUS FAR...BUT EXTREME SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN AND THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH ACTIVITY THAT
FORMS ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THAT CAN OUTRUN THE EWD MOVING
OUTFLOW. SMALL BOWS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS OR EMBEDDED AREAS OF
ROTATION MAY OCCUR.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
SDC009-152030-
/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120415T2030Z/
BON HOMME SD-
309 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN BON HOMME
COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...
AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TYNDALL...OR 21 MILES WEST OF
YANKTON...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SCOTLAND AROUND 325 PM CDT...
THE STRONGEST ROTATION WAS TRACKING JUST EAST OF TYNDALL. THIS STORM
HAS PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS IN KNOX COUNTY NEBRASKA AND
ALSO LIKELY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER JUST NORTH OF SANTEE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 9773 4296 9795 4317 9785 4317 9767
4316 9764 4310 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 199DEG 29KT 4301 9778
$$
MJF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
SDC009-152030-
/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120415T2030Z/
BON HOMME SD-
309 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN BON HOMME
COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...
AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TYNDALL...OR 21 MILES WEST OF
YANKTON...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SCOTLAND AROUND 325 PM CDT...
THE STRONGEST ROTATION WAS TRACKING JUST EAST OF TYNDALL. THIS STORM
HAS PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS IN KNOX COUNTY NEBRASKA AND
ALSO LIKELY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER JUST NORTH OF SANTEE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 9773 4296 9795 4317 9785 4317 9767
4316 9764 4310 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 199DEG 29KT 4301 9778
$$
MJF
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Dave
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- Contact:
This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0178
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WOUS64 KWNS 152034
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
TORNADO WATCH 178 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
IAC033-037-041-059-063-067-081-089-109-131-147-189-191-195-
160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAY
DICKINSON EMMET FLOYD
HANCOCK HOWARD KOSSUTH
MITCHELL PALO ALTO WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH
MNC003-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-
059-063-067-079-081-083-085-091-093-099-101-103-109-123-127-129-
131-139-141-143-147-157-161-163-165-169-171-173-160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO
COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON
ISANTI JACKSON KANDIYOHI
LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON
MARTIN MCLEOD MEEKER
MOWER MURRAY NICOLLET
OLMSTED RAMSEY REDWOOD
RENVILLE RICE SCOTT
SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WINONA WRIGHT
YELLOW MEDICINE
WIC005-011-017-019-033-035-053-063-091-093-095-107-109-119-121-
160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA
CLARK DUNN EAU CLAIRE
JACKSON LA CROSSE PEPIN
PIERCE POLK RUSK
ST. CROIX TAYLOR TREMPEALEAU
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...FSD...
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WOUS64 KWNS 152034
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
TORNADO WATCH 178 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
IAC033-037-041-059-063-067-081-089-109-131-147-189-191-195-
160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAY
DICKINSON EMMET FLOYD
HANCOCK HOWARD KOSSUTH
MITCHELL PALO ALTO WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH
MNC003-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-
059-063-067-079-081-083-085-091-093-099-101-103-109-123-127-129-
131-139-141-143-147-157-161-163-165-169-171-173-160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO
COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON
ISANTI JACKSON KANDIYOHI
LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON
MARTIN MCLEOD MEEKER
MOWER MURRAY NICOLLET
OLMSTED RAMSEY REDWOOD
RENVILLE RICE SCOTT
SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WINONA WRIGHT
YELLOW MEDICINE
WIC005-011-017-019-033-035-053-063-091-093-095-107-109-119-121-
160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA
CLARK DUNN EAU CLAIRE
JACKSON LA CROSSE PEPIN
PIERCE POLK RUSK
ST. CROIX TAYLOR TREMPEALEAU
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...FSD...
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Dave
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...TSRA/SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...-SN CHANCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI MON...
FROST/FREEZE THREAT LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
CENTERED ON WED.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 988MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEB WITH A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST TO NEAR KMSP AND EAST TO NEAR KGRB. SKIES CONTINUED
TO CLEAR OVER IA AND SOUTHERN MN AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHED NORTH/
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW. CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
INCREASING INTO THE 1K OT 1.5K RANGE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S/MID 70S. WITH WARMING COMES INCREASING MIXING DEPTH...WITH SOUTH
SFC WINDS 20-35MPH GUSTING 40-45 MPH OVER MUCH OF IA/SOUTHERN MN.
BULK OF CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SD/MN IN
CONVERGENCE/LIFT WEST/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OR OVER SOUTHERN WI TO
MO EAST OF THE MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.
MODEL RUNS OF 15.12Z INTERNALIZED WELL AND OFFER QUITE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT IN A RATHER FAST/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 15.12Z SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 13.12Z
AND 14.12Z GENERALLY VERIFIED TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE LOW OVER
WESTERN NEB/KS. BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF ON THE LOW
POSITION. MODELS GOOD WITH FEATURES ELSEWHERE ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN
PAC. MODEL CONSISTENCY/CONSENSUS QUITE GOOD TONIGHT/MON AS THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTS THRU THE REGION...WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AT 00Z TUE THAN 12Z SUN THIS MORNING. BETWEEN MODEL AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY GOOD AND IMPROVING FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED
NIGHT AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FOR LATE TUE NIGHT/
WED. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED GEM/ECMWF WERE BETTER
WITH THE SFC LOW POSITION IN EASTERN NEB. ALL WERE QUITE GOOD WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME/60F SFC DEW POINTS OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN/WI SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL LOOKED QUITE GOOD WITH THE
SHORTWAVE DETAILS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/MN. WITH MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER
CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AN NO ONE MODEL WITH CLEARLY BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEYOND TONIGHT...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE VERY DYNAMIC SFC-MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE U.P OF MI BY
12Z MON. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF SOME SUNSHINE...WITH MORE
THAN ADEQUATE 0-6KM WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE
INITIATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS TONIGHT. WRF/HI-RESOLUTION
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN TO
INITIATE SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MN AROUND 20-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS CONVECTION GROWING/TRANSLATING NORTHEAST THRU
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BASED ON RADAR/VIS IMAGERY
TRENDS NEAR KFSD/KOMA...THIS APPEARS VERY REASONABLE. WITH THE
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 23Z-04Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL BE VERY FAST MOVING...50-60MPH. SEE DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST DETAILS. MOST SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
THIS EVENING IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH A SCT-BKN LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AT LEAST SUNSET
WITH THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED PAST 01Z THIS EVENING AS SOME OF THE STRONGEST 925-850MB
WINDS ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND MID LEVEL COOLING AS
THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACK ACROSS MN THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE
SFC TO 850-800MB LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP FOR CONTINUED
MIXING. WILL NOT EXPAND IT AT THIS TIME THOUGH.
SFC TROUGH/FRONT PASSES DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND BRISK/STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. APPEARS NORTHWEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OWING TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITING MIXING DEPTH. DEFORMATION
BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT WRAPPED AROUND THE SFC-700MB LOW WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO/ ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MON.
DEEPER/STRONGER OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH 1/3
TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA MON MORNING. ENOUGH POST-LOW/TROUGH COOLING
OCCURS THAT THE COLUMN WOULD SUPPORT -SN OVER THE FAR NORTH END OF
THE FCST AREA AROUND 18Z MON. ADDED -SN MENTION ALONG/NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 MON. CARRIED 50-65 PERCENT -RA OR -RA/-SN CHANCES OVER
THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT/MON...TO ONLY 20-30 PERCENT OVER NORTHEAST IA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...TSRA/SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...-SN CHANCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI MON...
FROST/FREEZE THREAT LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
CENTERED ON WED.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 988MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEB WITH A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST TO NEAR KMSP AND EAST TO NEAR KGRB. SKIES CONTINUED
TO CLEAR OVER IA AND SOUTHERN MN AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHED NORTH/
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW. CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
INCREASING INTO THE 1K OT 1.5K RANGE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S/MID 70S. WITH WARMING COMES INCREASING MIXING DEPTH...WITH SOUTH
SFC WINDS 20-35MPH GUSTING 40-45 MPH OVER MUCH OF IA/SOUTHERN MN.
BULK OF CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SD/MN IN
CONVERGENCE/LIFT WEST/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OR OVER SOUTHERN WI TO
MO EAST OF THE MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.
MODEL RUNS OF 15.12Z INTERNALIZED WELL AND OFFER QUITE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT IN A RATHER FAST/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 15.12Z SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 13.12Z
AND 14.12Z GENERALLY VERIFIED TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE LOW OVER
WESTERN NEB/KS. BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF ON THE LOW
POSITION. MODELS GOOD WITH FEATURES ELSEWHERE ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN
PAC. MODEL CONSISTENCY/CONSENSUS QUITE GOOD TONIGHT/MON AS THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTS THRU THE REGION...WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AT 00Z TUE THAN 12Z SUN THIS MORNING. BETWEEN MODEL AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY GOOD AND IMPROVING FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED
NIGHT AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FOR LATE TUE NIGHT/
WED. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED GEM/ECMWF WERE BETTER
WITH THE SFC LOW POSITION IN EASTERN NEB. ALL WERE QUITE GOOD WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME/60F SFC DEW POINTS OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN/WI SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL LOOKED QUITE GOOD WITH THE
SHORTWAVE DETAILS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/MN. WITH MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER
CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AN NO ONE MODEL WITH CLEARLY BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEYOND TONIGHT...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE VERY DYNAMIC SFC-MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE U.P OF MI BY
12Z MON. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF SOME SUNSHINE...WITH MORE
THAN ADEQUATE 0-6KM WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE
INITIATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS TONIGHT. WRF/HI-RESOLUTION
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN TO
INITIATE SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHWEST MN AROUND 20-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS CONVECTION GROWING/TRANSLATING NORTHEAST THRU
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BASED ON RADAR/VIS IMAGERY
TRENDS NEAR KFSD/KOMA...THIS APPEARS VERY REASONABLE. WITH THE
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 23Z-04Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL BE VERY FAST MOVING...50-60MPH. SEE DISCUSSIONS FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST DETAILS. MOST SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
THIS EVENING IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH A SCT-BKN LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AT LEAST SUNSET
WITH THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED PAST 01Z THIS EVENING AS SOME OF THE STRONGEST 925-850MB
WINDS ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND MID LEVEL COOLING AS
THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACK ACROSS MN THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE
SFC TO 850-800MB LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP FOR CONTINUED
MIXING. WILL NOT EXPAND IT AT THIS TIME THOUGH.
SFC TROUGH/FRONT PASSES DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND BRISK/STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. APPEARS NORTHWEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OWING TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITING MIXING DEPTH. DEFORMATION
BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT WRAPPED AROUND THE SFC-700MB LOW WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO/ ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MON.
DEEPER/STRONGER OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH 1/3
TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA MON MORNING. ENOUGH POST-LOW/TROUGH COOLING
OCCURS THAT THE COLUMN WOULD SUPPORT -SN OVER THE FAR NORTH END OF
THE FCST AREA AROUND 18Z MON. ADDED -SN MENTION ALONG/NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 MON. CARRIED 50-65 PERCENT -RA OR -RA/-SN CHANCES OVER
THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT/MON...TO ONLY 20-30 PERCENT OVER NORTHEAST IA.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSSELL...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARSHALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MARSHALL AND GHENT AROUND 400 PM CDT...
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LYND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSSELL...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARSHALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MARSHALL AND GHENT AROUND 400 PM CDT...
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LYND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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Dave
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- Posts: 13442
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- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
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- Contact:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHERN IOWA
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE FROM NWRN IA INTO SWRN
MN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX MOVING NEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MN INTO WRN WI HAS WARMED DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. VERY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AID IN STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS AS ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.
...WEISS
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Dave
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
...SAFETY RULES FOR TORNADOES...
A TORNADO WATCH OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. HERE ARE SOME SAFETY TIPS ABOUT TORNADOES.
A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION CLOSELY. THESE STORMS CAN DEVELOP RAPIDLY SO
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONS WHEN ADVANCED WARNING IS NOT POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO WARNING MEANS A TORNADO HAS BEEN SPOTTED...OR STRONG
ROTATION WAS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. IF YOU ARE NEAR OR IN THE
PATH OF A TORNADO...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. FOLLOW THESE SAFETY RULES.
IN OPEN COUNTRY...TRY AND FIND A SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE...FIND A DITCH OR CULVERT AND LAY FLAT. COVER YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR HANDS FOR PROTECTION.
IN HOMES OR SMALL BUILDINGS...GO TO THE BASEMENT OR A SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL...LIKE AN INTERIOR CLOSET...HALL...OR
BATHROOM. GET UNDER SOMETHING STURDY IF YOU CAN. PUT AS MANY WALLS
BETWEEN YOU AND THE STORM AS POSSIBLE.
IN MOBILE HOMES...ABANDON THEM AND GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.
IN A VEHICLE...NEVER TRY AND OUTRUN A TORNADO UNLESS IT IS QUITE
SOME DISTANCE AWAY AND YOU CAN CLEARLY DRIVE AWAY. FIND A SHELTER
INSTEAD OF STAYING WITH YOUR VEHICLE. AUTOMOBILES CAN EASILY BE
PICKED UP AND TOSSED AROUND BY A TORNADO.
IN SCHOOLS...HOSPITALS...OR SHOPPING CENTERS...GO TO DESIGNATED
SHELTER AREAS. INTERIOR SMALL ROOMS OR HALLS ON THE LOWEST LEVELS
ARE USUALLY SAFER. STAY AWAY FROM GYMNASIUMS OR AUDITORIUMS.
THE KEY TO TORNADO SURVIVAL IS BEING PREPARED. TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION
WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED...OR WHEN YOU SPOT A TORNADO. REMEMBER...
THE ACTIONS YOU TAKE DURING A TORNADO MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE AND THE
LIVES OF YOUR FAMILY.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
...SAFETY RULES FOR TORNADOES...
A TORNADO WATCH OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. HERE ARE SOME SAFETY TIPS ABOUT TORNADOES.
A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION CLOSELY. THESE STORMS CAN DEVELOP RAPIDLY SO
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONS WHEN ADVANCED WARNING IS NOT POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO WARNING MEANS A TORNADO HAS BEEN SPOTTED...OR STRONG
ROTATION WAS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. IF YOU ARE NEAR OR IN THE
PATH OF A TORNADO...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. FOLLOW THESE SAFETY RULES.
IN OPEN COUNTRY...TRY AND FIND A SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE...FIND A DITCH OR CULVERT AND LAY FLAT. COVER YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR HANDS FOR PROTECTION.
IN HOMES OR SMALL BUILDINGS...GO TO THE BASEMENT OR A SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL...LIKE AN INTERIOR CLOSET...HALL...OR
BATHROOM. GET UNDER SOMETHING STURDY IF YOU CAN. PUT AS MANY WALLS
BETWEEN YOU AND THE STORM AS POSSIBLE.
IN MOBILE HOMES...ABANDON THEM AND GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.
IN A VEHICLE...NEVER TRY AND OUTRUN A TORNADO UNLESS IT IS QUITE
SOME DISTANCE AWAY AND YOU CAN CLEARLY DRIVE AWAY. FIND A SHELTER
INSTEAD OF STAYING WITH YOUR VEHICLE. AUTOMOBILES CAN EASILY BE
PICKED UP AND TOSSED AROUND BY A TORNADO.
IN SCHOOLS...HOSPITALS...OR SHOPPING CENTERS...GO TO DESIGNATED
SHELTER AREAS. INTERIOR SMALL ROOMS OR HALLS ON THE LOWEST LEVELS
ARE USUALLY SAFER. STAY AWAY FROM GYMNASIUMS OR AUDITORIUMS.
THE KEY TO TORNADO SURVIVAL IS BEING PREPARED. TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION
WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED...OR WHEN YOU SPOT A TORNADO. REMEMBER...
THE ACTIONS YOU TAKE DURING A TORNADO MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE AND THE
LIVES OF YOUR FAMILY.
$$
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ARE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WARM
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WITH COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL
NE/KS. DRY LINE IS SITUATED NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES. SHEER AND
CAPE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND WITH
CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAS ENHANCED DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NORTHERN NE/SOUTHERN SD. WILL BE
A QUICK SHOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND STORMS...WITH PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE DRY LINE.
SECOND CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS. HIGH
WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT...WITH STRONG WINDS
AS LOW APPROACHES IN GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING AS WELL. WHILE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG NEAR LOW...MIXING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH SLIGHT INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND WHILE THEY WILL BE STRONG
WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTH AS BETTER MIXING AND STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW. MIXING WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT AS LOW
DEPARTS MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL BE LESS...THOUGH WILL SEE
SUBSIDENCE...DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA TO EXTEND ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ARE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WARM
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WITH COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL
NE/KS. DRY LINE IS SITUATED NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES. SHEER AND
CAPE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND WITH
CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAS ENHANCED DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NORTHERN NE/SOUTHERN SD. WILL BE
A QUICK SHOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND STORMS...WITH PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE DRY LINE.
SECOND CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS. HIGH
WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT...WITH STRONG WINDS
AS LOW APPROACHES IN GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING AS WELL. WHILE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG NEAR LOW...MIXING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH SLIGHT INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND WHILE THEY WILL BE STRONG
WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTH AS BETTER MIXING AND STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW. MIXING WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT AS LOW
DEPARTS MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL BE LESS...THOUGH WILL SEE
SUBSIDENCE...DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA TO EXTEND ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
LYON MN-
353 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LYON COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...
AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMDEN STATE PARK...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GHENT AROUND 400 PM CDT...
353 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LYON COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...
AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMDEN STATE PARK...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GHENT AROUND 400 PM CDT...
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152044Z - 152215Z
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NWRN LA.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...WITH A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN TX. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOW 80S SUPPORTING AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE LINE. HOWEVER...CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS WITH EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS SUGGESTS A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT REMAINS...AND
STORMS ARE STILL DEVELOPING ABOVE A LOW CLOUD DECK. THE INCREASE IN
STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE PARTLY
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING AND DEEPER ASCENT WITHIN UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT COULD EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE WRN PORTION OF
WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKER CAP AND SUGGESTING THAT
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES REMAIN STRONG WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG LLJ EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152044Z - 152215Z
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NWRN LA.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...WITH A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN TX. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOW 80S SUPPORTING AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE LINE. HOWEVER...CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS WITH EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS SUGGESTS A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT REMAINS...AND
STORMS ARE STILL DEVELOPING ABOVE A LOW CLOUD DECK. THE INCREASE IN
STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE PARTLY
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING AND DEEPER ASCENT WITHIN UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT COULD EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE WRN PORTION OF
WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKER CAP AND SUGGESTING THAT
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES REMAIN STRONG WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG LLJ EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN EMPHASIS IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND A
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT.
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GOOD DRYING ALONG WITH 20-40M 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS SHOWING UP IN WESTERN IA. THE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHWEST MN UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTH METRO HAVEN'T TURNED
OVER TO SOUTH YET...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO DOING SO.
TORNADOES...HAIL...AND WIND IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WILL BE ENHANCED. WE ALREADY HAVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW MN
AND IA...AND THIS POTENT WAVE WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE DRIVING STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHEAR IS VERY STRONG PER AREA VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF
25-30KTS SUPPORTED BY RUC ANALYSIS AND MPX 18Z SOUNDING. THESE
SOURCES ALSO SUGGEST LITTLE CIN AND AND LOW LCL TO GO ALONG WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. THESE ARE STRONG INDICATORS OF
TORNADOGENESIS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILE IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. SUPERCELLS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT FORM AND RIDE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES AND ALSO SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT DIMINISH GREATER THAN 30KM OR SO
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED.
THERE WILL STILL BE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STORMS THAT RIDE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. AGAIN...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO.
LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES COLLAPSE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. FORECAST PROFILES AND 1000-850MB LAYER WET BULB ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN...EVEN INTO NORTHWEST WI. THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE THERMAL PROFILE GETS COLD ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. WE THINK IT WILL...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR AN INCH OR AT THE
MOST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO
LITTLE FALLS TO RICE LAKE WI. A FEW INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN
MN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN EMPHASIS IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND A
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES
OUT.
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GOOD DRYING ALONG WITH 20-40M 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS SHOWING UP IN WESTERN IA. THE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHWEST MN UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTH METRO HAVEN'T TURNED
OVER TO SOUTH YET...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO DOING SO.
TORNADOES...HAIL...AND WIND IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WILL BE ENHANCED. WE ALREADY HAVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW MN
AND IA...AND THIS POTENT WAVE WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE DRIVING STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHEAR IS VERY STRONG PER AREA VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF
25-30KTS SUPPORTED BY RUC ANALYSIS AND MPX 18Z SOUNDING. THESE
SOURCES ALSO SUGGEST LITTLE CIN AND AND LOW LCL TO GO ALONG WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. THESE ARE STRONG INDICATORS OF
TORNADOGENESIS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILE IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. SUPERCELLS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT FORM AND RIDE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES AND ALSO SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT DIMINISH GREATER THAN 30KM OR SO
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED.
THERE WILL STILL BE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STORMS THAT RIDE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. AGAIN...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO.
LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES COLLAPSE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. FORECAST PROFILES AND 1000-850MB LAYER WET BULB ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN...EVEN INTO NORTHWEST WI. THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE THERMAL PROFILE GETS COLD ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. WE THINK IT WILL...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR AN INCH OR AT THE
MOST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO
LITTLE FALLS TO RICE LAKE WI. A FEW INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN
MN.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
414 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NORTH OF GHENT...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARSHALL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.
AT 411 PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 4 TO 7 MILES NORTH OF GHENT.
* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL LYON
COUNTY.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
414 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NORTH OF GHENT...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARSHALL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.
AT 411 PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 4 TO 7 MILES NORTH OF GHENT.
* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL LYON
COUNTY.
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