Caribbean - Central America Weather

[artist]

This morning the South is CALM barely any breeze , light drizzle for most of the night and morning till 9.30am when sun came out for a while, a friend who was on beach earlier said she could feel the air being sucked out to sea. Temps are cool 86F compared to yesterday morning 94F. Anyone wanting to monitor area near San Pedro caye can check this link for caye caulker caye which is like 20 min boat ride from San Pedro http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherda ... r-data.htm

thanks for your update BZSTORM. Thinking about you all there.

[BZSTORM]

Latest from NEMO (Belize) ... Advisory #7

National Emergency Management Organization
"Preserving Life and Property"
DATE: Tuesday, 07th, August 2012 TIME: 8:00 A.M.




NEMO Public Advisory # 7
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

TIME: 6:00 P.M.
LOCATION: 17.8N 84.4W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 250 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST NORTH WEST AT 13 MPH

Hurricane Warning Red II is in effect for the entire Coast of Belize. Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later tonight.

Ernesto is expected to produce accumulation of 3-5 inches. These rains are likely to cause dangerous FLASH FLOODS. If you live in an area subjected to flood, NEMO advises you to be prepared to quickly move your family and belongings to safety.

NEMO will be opening shelters in the North for those who are evacuating and seeking safety at 12:00 midday. If you are going to Shelters take along FOOD and WATER. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.

The last vessel will leave San Pedro at 1:30 p.m. The harbour will be closed at 3:00 p.m. Small Craft should seek safe harbour. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea. The swing bridge will be swung at 1:30 p.m.
Business Companies and stores should be closed down at 1:00 p.m. today.
The Coast Guard has been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes. This morning 176 people were evacuated from San Pedro. The UB Gymnasium has been prepared to shelter the evacuees.
Areas of concern are: Hattieville, Western Paradise, Belize City, Lord's Bank, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill and Maskal. Rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including: Bomba, Progresso, Copper Bank, Chunox up to Sarteneja.
Persons living in Coastal areas in particular are encouraged to put up shutters.
Additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to assist the public moving inland.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Stay Tuned for further advisories from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service.

[BZSTORM]

Latest from NEMO... Advisory #7

National Emergency Management Organization
"Preserving Life and Property"
DATE: Tuesday, 07th, August 2012 TIME: 8:00 A.M.




NEMO Public Advisory # 7
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

TIME: 6:00 P.M.
LOCATION: 17.8N 84.4W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 250 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST NORTH WEST AT 13 MPH

Hurricane Warning Red II is in effect for the entire Coast of Belize. Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later tonight.

Ernesto is expected to produce accumulation of 3-5 inches. These rains are likely to cause dangerous FLASH FLOODS. If you live in an area subjected to flood, NEMO advises you to be prepared to quickly move your family and belongings to safety.

NEMO will be opening shelters in the North for those who are evacuating and seeking safety at 12:00 midday. If you are going to Shelters take along FOOD and WATER. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.

The last vessel will leave San Pedro at 1:30 p.m. The harbour will be closed at 3:00 p.m. Small Craft should seek safe harbour. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea. The swing bridge will be swung at 1:30 p.m.
Business Companies and stores should be closed down at 1:00 p.m. today.
The Coast Guard has been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes. This morning 176 people were evacuated from San Pedro. The UB Gymnasium has been prepared to shelter the evacuees.
Areas of concern are: Hattieville, Western Paradise, Belize City, Lord's Bank, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill and Maskal. Rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including: Bomba, Progresso, Copper Bank, Chunox up to Sarteneja.
Persons living in Coastal areas in particular are encouraged to put up shutters.
Additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to assist the public moving inland.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Stay Tuned for further advisories from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service.

[BZSTORM]

This morning the South is CALM barely any breeze , light drizzle for most of the night and morning till 9.30am when sun came out for a while, a friend who was on beach earlier said she could feel the air being sucked out to sea. Temps are cool 86F compared to yesterday morning 94F. Anyone wanting to monitor area near San Pedro caye can check this link for caye caulker caye which is like 20 min boat ride from San Pedro http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherda ... r-data.htm


Drizzle rain started again, still little to now breeze, friend in San Pedro recently posted on facebook photos from his apartment dark clouds on horizon, winds low right now, drizzle rain - they had more activily last night than right now. Belize city friend reports pretty much same overcast, drizzle, next to no breeze.

[BZSTORM]

photo taken by freind in San Pedro caye Belize approx 10.30am Aug 7 2012 from his apartment http://i46.tinypic.com/250s046.jpg

[BZSTORM]

photo taken by freind in San Pedro caye Belize approx 10.30am Aug 7 2012 from his apartment http://i46.tinypic.com/250s046.jpg

[artist]

photo taken by freind in San Pedro caye Belize approx 10.30am Aug 7 2012 from his apartment http://i46.tinypic.com/250s046.jpg

wow, that looks menacing.

[cycloneye]

Hi BZSTORM. It looks like the core of Ernesto will pass north of your location, maybe close to Cozumel is the landfall. Do you have web cams from there?

[cycloneye]

Is now Hurricane Ernesto


BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON JUST-UPGRADED
HURRICANE ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO.

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[artist]

THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST TUE AUG 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL DIG DOWN
INTO HISPANIOLA BEFORE MOVING TO THE WEST AND A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN ITS PLACE. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STAY OVER THE ARE AFTERWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...COMBINING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER THE WAVE MOVES
OFF...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...A STRONG
MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN OVER THE AREA BY THE
GFS...AS WELL AS SURFACE DIVERGENCE OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS
LINGERING MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE VALUES OF ABOUT 1.9 INCHES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED...REDUCING
PW VALUES TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES AND CONTINUING RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 08/00Z. AFT 08/00Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TISX AND TIST. THE
MOISTURE WILL PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WESTWARD INDUCING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FLYING AREA BY 08/02Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 89 / 50 30 30 30
STT 79 90 79 90 / 70 30 20 20

[FutureEM]

If it goes West like this, then it is going to landfall in a very sparsely populated area. Good News Indeed.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO
MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

92L up to 30%

ABNT20 KNHC 072358
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON JUST-UPGRADED
HURRICANE ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW
OF FLORENCE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[Gustywind]

Latest on 92L mentionned now as... a special feature.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N30W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW AT 12N31W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 31W-35W. WHILE THE LOW IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME...UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE
NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST..OR OVER NORTHEREN BANCO CHINCHORRO
ISLANDS MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We continue to watch ex Florence and Invest 92L.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST WED AUG 8 2012

.UPDATE...FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FCST WERE UPDATED TO INCREASE
SKY CVR AND TO LOWER POPS OVER LAND AREAS AS PRECIP ON THE NORTH
COAST HAS EXITED THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.
HIGH DENSE OVC LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LIMITING HEATING. LATEST 06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL WAVE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM AST WED AUG 8 2012/

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRESS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. AT LOW LEVELS...
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AN IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A TSRA POSSIBLE AT JBQ AND JMZ THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROB
TOO LOW TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCTS. A BIT MORE ACTIVE THU AND
FRI WITH SCT-NMRS TSRA NW PR. THINGS LOOK PRETTY QUIET SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...SUMMER 2012(JJA) AT THE SAN JUAN AREA CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE THIRD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
OF 84.6F. THE WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 85.1F. AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT...SUMMER 2012
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE TENTH WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 83.8F. THE WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN
1979 AND 1994 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 86.6F. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...SUMMER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD DRIEST
SUMMER ON RECORD AT CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT WITH ONLY 2.40 INCHES
MEASURED. THE DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1985 WITH ONLY 3.64
INCHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 80 / 10 30 30 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Happy Birthday BZSTORM and have many more. How did things went there as Ernesto passed to your north?

[msbee]

Happy Birthday BZSTORM
Hope all is well over your way!