Texas Fall 2019

[Ralph's Weather]

Parts of N TX could go 48 hours below freezing early next week. Crazy for early November.

[Haris]

--BRING -- IT -- ON.

I hope we see historic cold every few weeks

[Ntxw]

FWIW it is still 6 days away. By Friday we'll probably see a lot of buzz on here. Expecting to reach page 100 by early next week, should end up easily being the most active Texas Fall thread by end of the month.

[Quixotic]

GFS has DFW with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s Tuesday. By default you can knock off 5 degrees from that as history has shown for the model bias. That's near record territory for the date which is 39/21 back in 1911. We've gone entire winters that barely gets that cold!

What has happened the past 3 weeks has been way out of the ordinary, this is not normal. We've been under the stretch of near record anomalous cool/cold period since mid October.

Closest I can come up with is 1976 and 2014.

[South Texas Storms]

--BRING -- IT -- ON.

I hope we see historic cold every few weeks

As long as there is regular precipitation along the way, I'm good with that.

[dhweather]

I'm not liking the pattern for next week. Might be cold enough for some sleet across Texas (not in Houston).

If there is wintry precip, I'm ok with it. Otherwise, I'm not.

[Ntxw]

GFS has DFW with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s Tuesday. By default you can knock off 5 degrees from that as history has shown for the model bias. That's near record territory for the date which is 39/21 back in 1911. We've gone entire winters that barely gets that cold!

What has happened the past 3 weeks has been way out of the ordinary, this is not normal. We've been under the stretch of near record anomalous cool/cold period since mid October.

Closest I can come up with is 1976 and 2014.

1976 has been popping up a lot since Halloween and 1993. For November 2014 is close. ENSO despite being neutral has quite a modoki structure.



Nino 4 this past week was +0.9C and well over raw SST 29C (enough for sustained convection) with 1+2 cold.

Nino 1+2: -0.4C
Nino 3: +0.5C
Nino 3.4: 0.7C
Nino 4: +0.9C

For the past 6 weeks Nino 3.4 has averaged over +0.5C which is weak Nino territory but 1.2 has been cold..weak modoki.

[Ntxw]

No snow on the Euro, but it is cold. Similar to what the GFS is showing temp wise maybe a touch colder. HP trend is stronger and further west. This run of the ECMWF sends the polar high from NW Canada -> Montana -> Texas panhandle aka cold air damming against the Rockies.

[Ntxw]

I looked back at the WPC surface archives and the same period in 2014. Indeed it was a 1050mb high over Alberta that crossed into Montana about 1042-1045mb. If the forecast holds true, this coming HP will be a bit stronger and should penetrate into Texas unlike 2014. The prior didn't. Both occurring basically in the same week of November.

If it holds true, a second surge of cold should follow it.

November 11th map back in 2014

[wxman57]

I don't like the 1976 analog at all. That was a brutal winter. It was my first year in college. I remember hearing that U.S. troops in Alaska undergoing Arctic survival training were having heat exhaustion due to the warm weather there. That wasn't the case across the rest of the U.S. The Mississippi froze past St. Louis. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans. It snowed in Miami and Key West that winter.

[Portastorm]

I don't like the 1976 analog at all. That was a brutal winter. It was my first year in college. I remember hearing that U.S. troops in Alaska undergoing Arctic survival training were having heat exhaustion due to the warm weather there. That wasn't the case across the rest of the U.S. The Mississippi froze past St. Louis. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans. It snowed in Miami and Key West that winter.

Hey gang, it may be time for us to start a GoFundMe for our favorite cycling, heat-loving meteorologist ... to get him a nice, new electric blanket for this winter!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I don't like the 1976 analog at all. That was a brutal winter. It was my first year in college. I remember hearing that U.S. troops in Alaska undergoing Arctic survival training were having heat exhaustion due to the warm weather there. That wasn't the case across the rest of the U.S. The Mississippi froze past St. Louis. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans. It snowed in Miami and Key West that winter.

Hey gang, it may be time for us to start a GoFundMe for our favorite cycling, heat-loving meteorologist ... to get him a nice, new electric blanket for this winter!

Put me down for $5.

[wxman57]

I don't like the 1976 analog at all. That was a brutal winter. It was my first year in college. I remember hearing that U.S. troops in Alaska undergoing Arctic survival training were having heat exhaustion due to the warm weather there. That wasn't the case across the rest of the U.S. The Mississippi froze past St. Louis. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans. It snowed in Miami and Key West that winter.

Hey gang, it may be time for us to start a GoFundMe for our favorite cycling, heat-loving meteorologist ... to get him a nice, new electric blanket for this winter!

I already have 2 electric blankets and 2 large heating pads. Would like electric blankets to get hotter, though. It's like they don't want to burn "normal" people's skin with them or something...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I need a snow tailgate (or sleet) for our last home game in CS on the 16th. Come on weather Gods, make it happen!

[orangeblood]

I looked back at the WPC surface archives and the same period in 2014. Indeed it was a 1050mb high over Alberta that crossed into Montana about 1042-1045mb. If the forecast holds true, this coming HP will be a bit stronger and should penetrate into Texas unlike 2014. The prior didn't. Both occurring basically in the same week of November.

If it holds true, a second surge of cold should follow it.

Another interesting note about 2014, if I recall, was a recurving Super Typhoon in the Northern Pacific being related to that Cold Snap. I believe we have a similar setup now with Super Typhoon Halong forecast to recurve towards Alaska.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I looked back at the WPC surface archives and the same period in 2014. Indeed it was a 1050mb high over Alberta that crossed into Montana about 1042-1045mb. If the forecast holds true, this coming HP will be a bit stronger and should penetrate into Texas unlike 2014. The prior didn't. Both occurring basically in the same week of November.

If it holds true, a second surge of cold should follow it.

Another interesting note about 2014, if I recall, was a recurving Super Typhoon in the Northern Pacific being related to that Cold Snap. I believe we have a similar setup now with Super Typhoon Halong forecast to recurve towards Alaska.

That was Nuri

[Ralph's Weather]

I looked back at the WPC surface archives and the same period in 2014. Indeed it was a 1050mb high over Alberta that crossed into Montana about 1042-1045mb. If the forecast holds true, this coming HP will be a bit stronger and should penetrate into Texas unlike 2014. The prior didn't. Both occurring basically in the same week of November.

If it holds true, a second surge of cold should follow it.

Another interesting note about 2014, if I recall, was a recurving Super Typhoon in the Northern Pacific being related to that Cold Snap. I believe we have a similar setup now with Super Typhoon Halong forecast to recurve towards Alaska.

Yep, this set up appears to be the second coming of the Nurin induced winter blast almost exactly 5 years ago. That one brought snow and mid teens to my house only a couple weeks after we moved in here.

[weatherdude1108]

022
FXUS64 KEWX 062040
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Current weather pattern across the CONUS is defined by largely zonal
west to east flow across much of the country. A closed low is parked
near the CA/AZ/Mexico border, with west southwesterly flow at the mid
and upper levels sending moisture from the Pacific into the mid to
upper levels of South Central Texas with breezy southeasterly winds
at the surface.

Temperatures this afternoon have exceeded expectations for many
locations, especially where cloud cover has been less than
anticipated (primarily across the Coastal Plains - sitting at 85 in
Kenedy right now). High temps today should range from the mid 70s
across the Hill Country to the low to mid 80s elsewhere under partly
to mostly cloudy skies with a decent southeasterly breeze at the
surface. Tonight will remain generally mild (lows to the mid to upper
60s) with mostly cloudy to even overcast skies (cloud cover
increasing throughout the night). Some patchy fog will be possible
toward sunrise. The overnight period should stay dry, although the
HRRR seems to indicate a chance for an MCS across the Hill Country in
the early morning hours of Thursday (other models do not corroborate
this).

Attention then turns to the cold front tomorrow. Models are in
fairly good agreement that the cold front will be entering the
northern portions of the CWA (northern Val Verde through northern
Burnet counties) by late Thursday morning, and completely through the
entire region by mid to late afternoon Thursday. Winds will shift to
northerly behind the front, with sustained winds increasing to 15 to
20 mph with some gusts up to 30 to 35 mph tomorrow afternoon through
early Friday morning. Temperatures will drop in wake of the front,
so high temperatures tomorrow will vary considerably from north to
south, with the Hill Country maxing out in the upper 60s by late
morning before the cold front passes, while the southern portions of
the region should see high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees.

Models vary in how they handle precipitation with the front. There
will likely be some sort of line (or broken line) of showers and
isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, but models vary
on the robustness of this line. Behind the front, fairly high PoPs
will persist as decent moisture will still in place and some decent
ascent over the cooler surface airmass should produce scattered to
widespread stratiform rain. Rain should come to an end by Friday
morning (possible some showers lingering into the afternoon hours
across the far southeastern counties). Total rainfall amounts should
generally range from quarter of an inch to half an inch of rain,
with higher amounts up to an inch or so possible across the Coastal
Plains. As per usual, there could be isolated higher (or lower)
amounts.

Low temperatures on Thursday night/Friday morning are expected to
remain above freezing, with lows bottoming out in the upper 30s to
mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Cloud cover and cold air advection will keep us chilly on Friday,
with highs only in the mid 50s expected for all of South-Central
Texas. Cloud cover will persist through the overnight period, so once
again temperatures Saturday morning are expected to remain above
freezing, with overnight/early morning lows in the low to upper 40s. Mostly
cloudy skies and northerly winds continue through Saturday as well,
although we are expected to warm up into the mid 60s on Saturday
afternoon.

Winds shift back to the southeast by Sunday, bringing moisture back
into South-Central Texas. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to
continue, however, with high temperatures around 70 degrees.

By late Sunday into Monday, an arctic blast is expected to overtake
much of the US thanks to a potent mid to upper level low and
accompanying trough. This is expected to send a strong cold front
through the region sometime during the day on Monday. This will bring
another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region,
especially for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. It
will also bring in another round of strong northerly winds behind the
front, as well as much cooler temperatures and drier air. Another
freeze seems quite possible early Tuesday morning for the Hill
Country. High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon are expected to be
in the mid 40s to low 50s, with another freeze expected overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with the coverage of this freeze
expanding to everywhere except for the Rio Grande Plains. Cold
temperatures will continue into Wednesday afternoon, with highs
expected to only reach the low to mid 50s.

[dhweather]

GFS has DFW with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s Tuesday. By default you can knock off 5 degrees from that as history has shown for the model bias. That's near record territory for the date which is 39/21 back in 1911. We've gone entire winters that barely gets that cold!

What has happened the past 3 weeks has been way out of the ordinary, this is not normal. We've been under the stretch of near record anomalous cool/cold period since mid October.

Closest I can come up with is 1976 and 2014.

1976 has been popping up a lot since Halloween and 1993. For November 2014 is close. ENSO despite being neutral has quite a modoki structure.

Nino 4 this past week was +0.9C and well over raw SST 29C (enough for sustained convection) with 1+2 cold.

Nino 1+2: -0.4C
Nino 3: +0.5C
Nino 3.4: 0.7C
Nino 4: +0.9C

For the past 6 weeks Nino 3.4 has averaged over +0.5C which is weak Nino territory but 1.2 has been cold..weak modoki.

Interesting - 1993 had the infamous iced in and Leon Lett Thanksgiving game for the Cowboys.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Youre right Ntx, the blob is not only bigger, but more west. As far the models shifting back and forth, great call. Dont remember that much from 13-14. I remember the Nuri induced front, high of 40-42 in Houston area. Off to a good start.

I think this pattern will be common this winter, shifting the trough west towards the inter mountain region and back east over the plains.

Love seeing '76 pop up on the analogs!