MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...IL...IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...195...
   
   VALID 162043Z - 162215Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS ERN IL
   AND INTO WRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW
   REDEVELOPS EWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER THESE AREAS.
   
   AN ARC OF SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
   COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM SCNTRL TO CNTRL IL. NEW
   DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO OCCURRING WEST OF THE INITIAL BAND OF
   STORMS...ACROSS LINCOLN...WRN STANFORD..AND EL PASO COUNTIES...
   INDICATING STRONG ASCENT WAS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION.
   FORCING AND DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DISCRETE CELLS MOVING INTO BACKED
   SURFACE FLOW OVER ERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. EVENTUALLY...CELL MERGERS MAY SUPPORT THE
   EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...
   
   38818533 38528687 38588843 38509026 39609011 40769109
   40709218 40619248 41289236 42189222 42109030 41578886
   41248816 41058560

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL AND FAR SOUTHERN WI/FAR
   NORTHERN INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194...
   
   VALID 162050Z - 162215Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194 CONTINUES UNTIL
   00Z...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   WELL NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL INDIANA...PRIMARY
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL CONTINUES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN INDIANA.
   AHEAD OF STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST IA...AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
   ABOVE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL...WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WW 194
   PER RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
   TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO CLUSTER MAY TEMPER VIGOROUS
   DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST EXTENT ACROSS WW 194.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...
   
   42629006 42708828 41678640 41328647 41458771 41618906
   41818960

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS INDIANA...SRN/ERN IL.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...195...
   
   VALID 162314Z - 170115Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD FROM ERN IL INTO WRN
   INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS THAT INCLUDES
   SEVERAL SUPERCELLS.  SRN-MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY -- WITH UNIMPEDED
   SFC-BASED INFLOW ATTM -- IS STRONGLY RIGHTWARD
   DEVIANT...CLASSIC/CYCLIC SUPERCELL OVER CRAWFORD COUNTY IL WITH
   HISTORY OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND AT LEAST TWO TORNADO REPORTS.  THIS
   TSTM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WABASH RIVER OVER PORTIONS
   SULLIVAN/KNOX/DAVIESS/GREENE COUNTIES INDIANA THROUGH 2Z.  LARGE
   HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
   COUPLE HOURS WITH ACTIVITY FARTHER N...MOVING EWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA
   BORDER. 
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED LOW OVER ERN IA...TRIPLE-POINT LOW
   BETWEEN SPI-PIA...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ESEWD FROM LATTER LOW ACROSS
   IND TO CINCINNATI AREA.  MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND E
   OF SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL ZONE -- A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
   SEPARATING MORE STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR  OF SERN MO/SWRN
   IL FROM AREAS FORMERLY COVERED IN STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SERN IN/SWRN
   INDIANA.  THIS BOUNDARY -- INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM NEAR SPI TO 20 W
   EVV -- SHOULD MOVE EWD OUT OF SERN PORTIONS WW 193 SHORTLY.  THROUGH
   2Z...AIR MASS BETWEEN WARM FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW
   LCL...INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS THAT ARE SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY
   SO...AND SOMEWHAT BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN REGION OF LOCALLY
   MAXIMIZED PRESSURE FALLS.  ACCORDINGLY...0-1 KM SRN IS MAXIMIZED
   OVER SERN IL/SWRN INDIANA AT 250-300 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS
   40-50 KT AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   38488863 39798907 40768978 41188934 41078793 40918695
   40898597 40688561 40118542 39388543 38868558 38578679

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0808 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN INDIANA//EXTREME N-CENTRAL KY.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 195...
   
   VALID 170108Z - 170245Z
   
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF SRN INDIANA BETWEEN SRN EDGE OF WW 195 AND OH
   RIVER WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG SRN EDGE OF
   SEVERE COMPLEX OF TSTMS -- NOW MOVING FROM ERN IL INTO WRN INDIANA.
   PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH HYBRID HP SUPERCELL/BOW
   ECHO OVER KNOX COUNTY INDIANA...WHICH PRODUCED MEASURED
   HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE IN ERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IL.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE OUT OF SRN-MOST
   COUNTIES IN WW...AND ACROSS PORTIONS ORANGE/WASHINGTON
   COUNTIES...TOWARD NWRN/NRN FRINGES SDF METRO AREA.
   
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SBCINH WITH
   SWD EXTENT ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO ADJACENT PORTION NRN
   KY.  BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE GRADUALLY OVER
   NEXT FEW HOURS BECAUSE OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.  THEREFORE THERE IS
   CONSIDERABLE PROBABILITY THAT TSTMS MAY NOT SURVIVE AS FAR AS SDF
   AREA.  HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE-SCALE
   LIFT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY -- SUCH AS STRONG FORCED ASCENT
   PROVIDED BY LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW SLAB.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN TERMS OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER SRH BECAUSE OF STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN LOW
   LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT TRAINING OF CORES PRODUCING 2-3
   INCH/HOUR RAINFALL RATES ALONG SWRN INDIANA CORRIDOR BETWEEN
   KNOX/SULLIVAN COUNTIES...BMG AREA AND ORANGE COUNTY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   38708827 39008773 39448712 39498654 39418582 39048557
   38598560 38298563 38198579 38118627 38348757

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/NERN MT...EXTREME NWRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 170443Z - 170645Z
   
   BAND OF TSTMS -- NOW MOVING NNEWD NEARLY 40 KT ACROSS SRN MCCONE
   COUNTY -- SHOULD MOVE TOWARD PORTIONS RICHLAND/ROOSEVELT/DANIELS
   COUNTIES DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
   BUILD/PROPAGATE NEWD INTO ZONE OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED WAA...AND MAY
   CLIP NWRN CORNER OF ND.  THOUGH INFLOW LAYER APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED
   WELL AGL...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING SFC GUSTS AS
   WELL AS HAIL.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED AREA AND TIME OF
   SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   VWP DATA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND
   LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MOISTENING IN
   650-800 MB LAYER WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW IS ESTIMATED.  ELEVATED
   MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF
   THIS CONVECTION.  THOUGH CONVECTIVELY STABLE...AIR MASS FROM SFC-800
   MB ALSO IS RELATIVELY DRY AND SUPPORTS DCAPE VALUES COMPARABLE TO
   LARGEST MUCAPES...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  GIVEN THAT
   FACTOR AND SHAPE OF WET BULB PROFILE IN SUBCLOUD LAYER.  ISOLATED 58
   KT GUST WAS REPORTED IN ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AND OCNL
   DAMAGING GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO PENETRATE BOUNDARY LAYER AND REACH
   SFC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
   
   47220543 47440581 47530615 47580630 48990574 48980347
   47290517

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY THROUGH SWRN VA AND EXTREME SRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171233Z - 171430Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
   ERN KY AND SWRN VA. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
   LOW IN N CNTRL KY SEWD THROUGH WRN VA AND INTO CNTRL NC. A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH W CNTRL AND SWRN KY. THE
   ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
   HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KY WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE LATER
   THIS MORNING. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ONLY
   NEED TO REACH NEAR 70 FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. STORMS
   CURRENTLY OVER NERN KY ARE DEVELOPING IN ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD MOVING VORT MAX AND ARE ELEVATED N OF SURFACE
   FRONT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES NEXT FEW
   HOURS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THIS
   CLUSTER TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
   NRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT AND SPREAD EWD. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH
   STORMS THAT BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY AND
   LAPSE RATES MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
   ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...
   
   37018170 36768254 37478433 38238405 37778172

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NC/NERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196...
   
   VALID 171737Z - 171930Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE/MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS WW 196.
   WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION SHOWING STORMS EXITING WW
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO HOUR AND A HALF -- I.E. BY 1830 TO 19Z...NEW
   WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM.
   
   LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A RELATIVELY
   DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SRN VA AND INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN
   NC...N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.  A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS SHOULD
   MOVE ATOP THIS MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BECOME ELEVATED...THUS
   LIKELY LIMITING MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TO HAIL.
   
   MEANWHILE...CONTINUED ESEWD MOTION OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT A
   CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE UVV WILL SPREAD ACROSS MORE
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARY. WITH BAND OF STRONG
   WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF UPPER
   TROUGH...SHEAR/INSTABILITY FAVOR AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SRN FRINGE OF THREAT AREA LIKELY
   LIMITED BY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN NC/NERN SC.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   36317933 35897779 34977638 33437887 34208159 35378262
   36058116

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NC/SC COSTAL PLAIN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197...
   
   VALID 172056Z - 172200Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z
   FOR NC/SC...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL QUICKLY SPREADING SE ACROSS
   THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN...INCLUDING THE WILMINGTON NC AREA SHORTLY.
   
   BOW ECHO WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SE
   AT 40 KTS ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN...INCLUDING THE WILMINGTON
   NC AREA BY 2130Z. IN ADDITION TO REPORTS OF WIND
   DAMAGE...FAYETTEVILLE REPORTED A 56 KT WIND GUST AT 20Z. WELL
   ORGANIZED NATURE OF MCS/COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND
   DAMAGE POTENTIAL INTO A RATHER UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
   /1000-1250 MLCAPE/ ADJACENT TO THE COAST. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO
   REMAINS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
   
   34768066 34407945 34657837 34957769 34677718 34017750
   33577806 33517861 33857978 34248065 34468097

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD/NEB
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 172138Z - 172345Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
   WY/FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO FAR WESTERN SD/ND AND PERHAPS THE NEB
   PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST
   CENTRAL WY...WITH 2-HR PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY
   INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/COLD
   FRONT...CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO
   THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY AND SOUTHWEST ND. WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
   TRAJECTORIES AND STEADY APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN WY/FAR SOUTHEAST
   MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND PERHAPS THE NEB PANHANDLE.
   
   NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS TENDED TO
   OFFSET MIXING...WITH NET MAINTENENCE OF MID-UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS
   ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/NEB PANHANDLE. SPECIAL 19Z RAPID CITY
   SOUNDING DEPICTS WELL MIXED PROFILE WITH MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG. ATOP
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...19Z RAP RAOB/MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER IS
   REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH BASED
   SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL TEND TO EVENTUALLY CONGEAL/BE
   UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT AS THEY MOVE NEWD. A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
   EXIST OWING TO SUFFICIENT MUCAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT/SEVERE GUST
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   42990519 44450550 47220369 47750202 44030130 42610212
   42420350

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/E-CENTRAL AL...NWRN GA.
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 172204Z - 172330Z
   
   A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM BAND OF TCU AND SHALLOW CB THAT IS
   EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY AL SEWD TOWARD CALHOUN
   COUNTY.  THIS CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG WELL DEFINED CONFLUENCE
   LINE CORRESPONDING TO WRN EXTENSION OF SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER STAGES OF CAROLINAS MCS.  ANY SUSTAINED
   CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD OR SSEWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN BHM-ATL.
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CINH WITH MLCAPES
   500-1000 J/KG...THOUGH SBCINH WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
   DIABATIC COOLING NEAR SUNSET.  ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
   CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT...VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO ROUGHLY 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS INDICATES SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS
   NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TOO MRGL/ISOLATED
   AND SHORT LIVED TO WARRANT WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34358730 34028621 33878553 33828501 33628486 33008477
   32938563 33338637 33998708 34128718

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN NC AND ERN SC.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197...
   
   VALID 172226Z - 180000Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND AND
   OCCASIONAL/MRGLLY SVR HAIL -- IS MOVING OFFSHORE NC COAST AND SOON
   WILL DO SO ACROSS NERN COAST OF SC.  SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING OF COMPLEX AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS
   SEABREEZE FROM WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY SSEWD...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND
   ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 2300-2315Z.
   THEREAFTER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY.
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ATOP RELATIVELY
   COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW POOL...IN REGIME OF ELEVATED WAA.  HOWEVER...ANY
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED
   THAN WITH INITIAL MCS...AMIDST WEAKER/ELEVATED BUOYANCY.
   THEREFORE...PER COORD/W CAE AND MHX...PORTIONS WW WILL BE CANCELLED
   BEFORE SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   34008037 34298044 34567998 34267941 33947891 33897814
   34267744 34627663 34097637 33187733 32847901 33147984

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0540
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME NERN WY...WRN SD...SWRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198...
   
   VALID 180033Z - 180200Z
   
   BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM HARDING COUNTY SD INTO
   BOWMAN COUNTY ND WITHIN NEXT HOUR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOVING NWD INTO SRN
   HARDING COUNTY AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SW INVOF SD/WY BORDER.
   MIDLEVEL CONVECTION OVER ERN WY IS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF ENHANCED
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVING EWD AHEAD OF INTENSE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT
   BASIN TROUGH ALOFT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING CG
   LIGHTNING...BUILDING REFLECTIVITIES...AND COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS.
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS WW...AND REMAINDER SWRN
   SD...REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 40S ON PLAINS
   AND 30S IN BLACK HILLS.  HOWEVER...MOIST ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING
   LLJ MAY RESULT IN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING ROOTED NEAR SFC.
   MODIFIED 00Z RAP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD
   LAYER CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL TO
   SFC...IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
   BOW FORMATIONS.
   
   53 KT GUST AND THREE REPORTS OF .75-1.75 INCH HAIL HAVE BEEN
   RECEIVED COMBINED AS OF 0030Z...OVER HARDING/BOWMAN COUNTIES.  THIS
   REPRESENTS STRONG CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALY. SPC SEVERE DATABASE
   INDICATES THESE ARE FIRST RECORDED APRIL SEVERE EVENTS IN THEIR
   COUNTIES...AND HALF THE TOTAL OF EIGHT APRIL REPORTS FOR ALL
   COUNTIES IN WW...SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1950.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
   
   44160252 44180435 47050357 47060168

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0541
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN SD.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198...
   
   VALID 180325Z - 180500Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER
   EVENING ACROSS WW AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
   LEVELS MAY STILL OCCUR PARTICULARLY OVER ERN HALF OF ORIGINAL
   WW...SWD ACROSS PENNINGTON COUNTY PLAINS TO NEAR NEB BORDER.  ND
   ALREADY HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM WW AND REMAINING PORTIONS IN SD
   PORTION MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
   
   MERIDIONAL BAND OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION...WHILE EMBEDDED CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS MOVE NNEWD 30-40 KT.
    ONE SUCH BAND IS EVIDENT ATTM OVER ERN CUSTER/NWRN SHANNON
   COUNTY...HEADED FOR CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF BOTH PENNINGTON AND
   MEADE COUNTIES.  PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED WELL E OF
   CONVECTIVE BAND...FURTHER STABILIZING NEAR-SFC LAYER BEYOND AMBIENT
   DIABATIC COOLING RATES.  STILL...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
   SHOW LARGE SUBCLOUD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE STABLE OUTFLOW LAYER
   -- REMNANTS OF EARLIER/DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS.  THIS
   MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC...AS
   WELL AS LARGE HAIL...FROM MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
   
   44200367 45930322 45920195 43020210 43000333

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MN...EXTREME WRN WI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 182349Z - 190215Z

BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MAINTAIN RISK FOR OCNL/MRGL SEVERE
HAIL AS IT MOVES NWD TO NNEWD ACROSS MN AND PERHAPS WRN TIER WI
COUNTIES N RST. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL SD
CYCLONE SEWD ACROSS PIPESTONE COUNTY MN...INTO W-CENTRAL IA.
ELEVATED BAND OF LIFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT PARALLEL
TO AND ABOUT 100 NM NE OF SFC FRONT. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY AS OF
WAS LOCATED FROM MEEKER-WASECA COUNTIES...HOWEVER INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE SEWD TOWARD RST AREA AND SOMEWHAT NWWD TOWARD
DOUGLAS/TODD COUNTIES. VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS ROUGHLY 40 KT SELY
LLJ AROUND 850 MB LEVEL OVER THIS REGION. ELEVATED WAA/MOIST
ADVECTION INTO AREA N AND E OF CONVECTIVE BAND WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
MUCAPES ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG...WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9
DEG C/KM.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2006


ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

43519290 44899433 45519515 45809529 46969503 46599366
45989279 45589248 44849210

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200...
   
   VALID 190050Z - 190245Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 25
   KTS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM GEORGETOWN SWD THROUGH AUS OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING INHIBITION WILL LIKELY LIMIT ADDITIONAL SVR
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WSW OF THIS ACTIVITY. THERFORE THE SVR TSTM
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING OVER THE OVER THE SRN/WRN HILL
   COUNTRY /REAL...BANDERA...MEDINA...UVALDE... AND BEXAR COUNTIES/.
   THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HR.
   
   OBSERVED CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN HILL COUNTRY ENTERED INTO THE 00Z
   DRT SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCINH. WITH THE
   COMBINATION OF STORMS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATION AND INCREASING
   CINH AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...EXPECT A
   GRADUALLY WANING SVR THREAT WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE ERN/NRN
   HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. NO ADDITIONAL WW IS
   EXPECTED EAST OF WW 200 FOR THE ABOVE REASONING.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   30779824 30419959 30049965 29529927 29779827 30459705
   31019716

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0859 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN MO....WRN IL.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...
   
   VALID 190159Z - 190330Z
   
   ONE OR TWO WWS MAY BE REQUIRED E OF PRESENT WW AREA...COVERING
   PORTIONS MO/IL NEAR MS RIVER.
   
   BROKEN BAND OF STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MO...THEN ACROSS MS RIVER OVER PORTIONS WRN IL.
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED FRONT FROM JUST SW DSM SSEWD TO NEAR
   COU...WHERE INTENSE CLUSTER OF TSTMS APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH
   MESOLOW/TRIPLE POINT.  WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THAT AREA TO
   NEAR SRN TIP OF IL...AND SHOULD LIFT NEWD ABOUT 10 KT.
   OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL
   MO.  THIS WILL PRODUCE ESEWD-PROPAGATING ZIPPER EFFECT FOR TRIPLE
   POINT TOWARD AREA NEAR OR JUST SW STL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.  RUC SOUNDINGS
   OVER ERN MO NEAR WARM FRONT...AND VWP FROM STL AREA...ON COOL SIDE
   OF WARM FRONT -- ARE QUITE FAVORABLE WITH 0-3 KM SRH 300-500 J/KG.
   TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED  AROUND
   OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT REGION AND SLGTLY SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT.
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SW OF WARM FRONT WILL STABILIZE GRADUALLY
   THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   EFFECTIVE PARCELS IN WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN ROOTED NEAR SFC FOR
   SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  MAIN THREAT N OF TRIPLE POINT WILL BE
   HAIL...WHERE BUOYANCY IS ROOTED AGL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   37549252 38659239 39739284 40359357 40509339 40549195
   40589077 40269045 39909016 39248983 38648962 38058959
   37648966 37429018

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AR / FAR SERN OK AND NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 190243Z - 190445Z
   
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN AR ALONG COLD FRONT.
   00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
   STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS WHEN MODIFIED FOR MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS AS SEEN ON UPSTREAM SHV SOUNDING. SOME CAPPING
   EXISTS...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
   ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION GOING. AREA VWPS
   INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
   FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
   
   35509348 35999287 36329196 36489136 36299067 35719070
   34609180 33389297 32949402 32739476 32789542 33169600
   33599595 34109517

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN IA...W-CENTRAL/NWRN IL...NERN
   MO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...202...
   
   VALID 190336Z - 190530Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL --- PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WWS AND MAY
   EXTEND EWD INTO EXTREME ERN IA AND NWRN IL.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF
   MAINLY 1 INCH AND SMALLER DIAMETER HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER WWS
   DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS. SINCE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MRGLLY
   SEVERE...AND LIKELY NOT AS NUMEROUS AS FARTHER W ACROSS NRN MO AND
   IA...WW NOT PLANNED ATTM.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT AS OF 315Z...FIRST FROM
   NWRN PORTIONS WW 213 NWD TO NEAR UIN/BRL.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE E
   OF WWS SHORTLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE
   LEVELS.  TSTMS IN OTHER BAND -- GENERALLY BETWEEN MCW AND 20 SW IRK
   -- WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER WRN/NRN PORTIONS WW 201...AND
   FROM NERN PORTIONS WW 199 INTO SERN IA AND EXTREME NERN MO.
   MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   OVER SRN IA/IL BORDER REGION...AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES.
    EXPECT 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MUCAPES AROUND 1500
   J/KG...WITH BUOYANCY ROOTED IN 750-850 MB LAYER.
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY 20-30 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEARS...WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED LARGE
   HAIL EVENT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   38889144 39359154 40479216 40509309 41439330 42009390
   42739379 42739248 42189080 41508970 40378960 39098984

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MO...CENTRAL/SRN IL.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...
   
   VALID 190500Z - 190600Z
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
   LONG-LIVED/COMPLEX CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS MOVING ESEWD FROM
   JEFFERSON COUNTY MO.  PORTIONS STE. GENEVIEVE/PERRY COUNTIES
   MO...AND MONROE/RANDOLPH/JACKSON/PERRY COUNTIES IL ARE IN PATH OF
   THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH CONTINUES TO POSE RISK OF DAMAGING
   GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.  CONVECTION SHOULD
   REMAIN LOCATED INVOF OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT WHERE MOIST BUOYANT
   PARCELS ARE LOCATED...AS WELL AS MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   
   FARTHER E AND NE ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL...ELEVATED MUCAPES
   AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS WITH
   OCCASIONAL HAIL...THROUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN LOW-MIDLEVELS
   OF BUOYANT LAYER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.  MEANWHILE...GUST
   FRONT HAS MOVED WELL AHEAD OF MOST REFLECTIVITY CORES ASSOCIATED
   WITH W-CENTRAL IL LINE...BUT STILL PRODUCED MEASURED 51 KT GUST AT
   IJX OB AT 425Z.  EXPECT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH THIS GUST FROM
   TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...AND AS PARENT CONVECTION REMAINS REMOVED BY SEVERAL MILES OR
   MORE FROM LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   37079080 37399062 38259075 39059001 39458886 39388780
   38928761 37888834 37158929

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 190640Z - 191245Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HRLY RATES OF AT LEAST
   1 IN/HR. STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER MAINTAIN NEAR BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS.
   
   RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASING BAND OF SNOW ACROSS WRN SD AS OF
   630Z...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUC/NAM/WRF MODELS
   INDICATING INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH 12Z ACROSS FAR
   SERN MT AND WRN SD. STRONG NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP HEAVIEST
   PRECIP. RATES FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN BLACK HILLS. WHILE WINDS WILL
   BE STRONG...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL HELP
   MITIGATE DRIFTING...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO AT
   TIMES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   44690489 45570542 46350565 46820527 46910440 46440356
   46180344 45180310 44400308 43940346 43930422