Texas Summer 2017

[Cpv17]

Euro has a fropa next weekend with 60s at the end of the run in DFW

GFS brings 92L to Texas as more moisture for a rain setup late next week

I wouldn't put much stock into the strength of tc formation right now being modeled by the GFS. I'm actually finding it quite comical. More so paying attention to the track, not the strength.

yeah I don't buy the GFS not forming 92L really at all, more interesting to me that it made it to Texas on the 18z.

Yeah I believe one of the prior runs of the GFS also had the vorticity going towards TX as well without developing it. I just have a hard time believing that not even a lopsided tropical storm wouldn't develop with how warm the waters of the Gulf are. Currently waters in the Gulf are 85-90 degrees and that's rocket fuel right there. And it's the middle of August. Climatology would suggest that it would form and TX is vulnerable to a hit in mid to late August.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro has Harvey as a major hurricane just off the TX coast in 10 days.

[Brent]

That was an interesting Euro solution

[Ntxw]

Euro had a gulf storm few runs ago so on and off. Still mildly interested, but in mode of until more evidence and consistency, skeptical. To see a potential TX event Harvey would need to gain some latitude. Storms that hit the Yucatan's northern peninsula historically is more likely to move poleward to the US gulf coast. Belize and further south tends to go into MX

[Texas Snowman]

Good point Ntxw. Remains to be seen what will happen, but it has been nine years since Ike, so I guess the Texas Gulf Coast is overdue.

If it happens to be Harvey, there's a whole lot of fuel out there in GOM.

I do know this, a tropical system sloshing across North Texas right now might bring serious flooding thanks to recent rains.

[Tireman4]

Good point Ntxw. Remains to be seen what will happen, but it has been nine years since Ike, so I guess the Texas Gulf Coast is overdue.

If it happens to be Harvey, there's a whole lot of fuel out there in GOM.

I do know this, a tropical system sloshing across North Texas right now might bring serious flooding thanks to recent rains.

With all due respect, I want a tranquil end of Summer, a cold Fall and an even colder Winter...

[Brent]

There is supposed to be a front late next week so maybe the northward shift with Harvey is legit but I want more consistency first and like said not even the first 10 day fantasy we've seen

[Portastorm]

Good point Ntxw. Remains to be seen what will happen, but it has been nine years since Ike, so I guess the Texas Gulf Coast is overdue.

If it happens to be Harvey, there's a whole lot of fuel out there in GOM.

I do know this, a tropical system sloshing across North Texas right now might bring serious flooding thanks to recent rains.

Bring it to South Central Texas. We will welcome Harvey with open arms and parched landscapes.

Of course if he's too big and strong then he needs to go somewhere else.

[Tireman4]

Good point Ntxw. Remains to be seen what will happen, but it has been nine years since Ike, so I guess the Texas Gulf Coast is overdue.

If it happens to be Harvey, there's a whole lot of fuel out there in GOM.

I do know this, a tropical system sloshing across North Texas right now might bring serious flooding thanks to recent rains.

Bring it to South Central Texas. We will welcome Harvey with open arms and parched landscapes.

Of course if he's too big and strong then he needs to go somewhere else.

Umm Porta, did you not say that with 2011's Tropical Storm Don..and well, we know what happened there...

[Portastorm]

Ugh ... dude ... you're right. Crap. I just killed our chances. And probably Harvey too.

[Ntxw]

The overnight NW Oklahoma storms have sent off a boundary that's crossed the Red River. A few storms have fired ahead of it in Jack and Palo Pinto counties out west

[bubba hotep]

Also, Texas might break that hurricane drought during the next two weeks.

Or maybe Louisiana gets it? Complex setup unfolding over the next week.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has shifted slightly north with Harvey.
And the Euro is way back south again and buries it into southern Mexico not even making it in the BOC. Lots of time yet to keep watching.

[Ntxw]

Atmospheric conditions above Harvey are not that great despite very warm SSTs. Lets see where it is once it hits the W-Carib. My bet is a blend of two solutions and probably something similar to Franklin. As I mentioned earlier storms that hit Belize don't tend to go pole-ward after.

[Brent]

These models are all over the place

[Ntxw]

These models are all over the place

There's no guaranty it will even hold together as a formidable storm for models to do well with to start. Conditions over it are not as favorable as was Franklin. Cloud patterns are more mid level and shear induced structure rather than tightly wrapped system indicative of intensification. More like pulsing thunderstorms.

[Brent]

In other news it's raining again. Almost unbelievable summer in DFW continues lol

[vbhoutex]

I'll trade you Brent!! Currently 97f with feels like of 109f. No rain in over a week, but we had 5.75" on he 7th of august in 3 hours. Feast or Famine.

[JDawg512]

I'll trade you Brent!! Currently 97f with feels like of 109f. No rain in over a week, but we had 5.75" on he 7th of august in 3 hours. Feast or Famine.

Very true, We basically got roughly the average for August in one day so if it doesn't rain here the rest of the month, it would technically still be around average. Of course doesn't help if it's not distributed throughout the month.

I really want it to rain before we head into September. As far as the models go, I'm always skeptical this time of year. Would need to be consistent and would need to see the weather pattern start to change to coincide with what the models show.

[weatherdude1108]

You know it's hot and dry when your own weather service wants it to rain ("Fingers crossed!") I'm so OVER this weather pattern. Rain, no rain, rinse, repeat...etc.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 181936
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
236 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

Continued focus today and tomorrow remains on the elevated heat index
values and temperatures with readings running slightly above normal.
Temperatures near 100F will be common with heat index values
reaching into the 103-108F range each afternoon. Little to no rain is
expected.

A steady H5 ridge of high pressure remains elongated across south-
central Texas eastward to the northern Gulf of Mexico. This
suppression, and drier air aloft per water vapor satellite imagery,
will mean few clouds and no rain chances for much of the region today.
Temperatures will reach the upper 90s and low 100s this afternoon. A
special weather statement is in effect for the heat indices reaching
upwards of 103-107F. Weak upslope flow and stronger heating on the
periphery of the high in Mexico is aiding some showers and
thunderstorms west of the Rio Grande River. While some of this
activity could cross into Val Verde late this afternoon, limited
coverage and impacts are expected.

Another warm night expected with low clouds developing by dawn
Saturday as we repeat the weather from today. While the H5 ridge is
not overly strong (592DM) tomorrow, very weak CAPE due to strong
mixing of the boundary layer will highly limit cloud and convective
potential. Expect another hot (but not overly hot) day as another
special weather statement is likely. Temperatures will fall short of
heat advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Continued status quo late-weekend and early next week as temperatures
top out near 100F each day. A pattern change will occur starting
Tuesday-Thursday next week that could result in greater rain chances
for the region. Fingers crossed!

Water vapor channels currently depict a mid- to upper level-low over
the FL Peninsula and models track this feature across the Gulf of
Mexico through the weekend. By early next week, the feature will be
near the Texas coast. This feature, along with greater moisture in
the mid and upper-levels should aid in at least coastal plain showers
and storms. Both the EC and GFS also indicate a stronger longwave
trough over the Mid-MS valley that will attempt to bring a back-door
front into north Texas. The question at this time will be how strong
will the convection along the boundary be and can it force the line
farther south? The EC is more bullish on bringing more rain to the
region in the QPF signal while GFS keeps most activity north. The
previous instance from just over a week ago yielded more weight to be
placed on the EC. While overall SuperBlend model chances were
reduced, kept at least a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and
potentially into Thursday of next week.

Also of note will be the future track of current Tropical Storm
Harvey. Model indications suggest Harvey to go inland across the
Yucatan Peninsula and possibly re-emerge into the Bay of Campeche.
Majority of model guidance envelope keeps the storm south of the
region. Will provide updates if the track shifts farther north.