Texas Fall 2023

[bubba hotep]

It's my favorite time of year, Fantasy Snow Maps Season!



Just for fun we will throw in some freezing rain maps!

[aggiecutter]

Pretty incredible. While much of Texas has been in a severe drought over the past year, Texarkana will probably finish the year close to a foot above normal for rainfall. BTW, ominous signs in the long range as it pertains to El Nino enhanced severe weather.

[Iceresistance]

What is that!?


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/S8PTC.gif

[Brent]

I'm officially intrigued in the Thanksgiving weekend timeframe here. That is not the first GFS run that has at least tried to show something

[Ntxw]

I'm officially intrigued in the Thanksgiving weekend timeframe here. That is not the first GFS run that has at least tried to show something

While we cannot say there is going to be a winter storm this early, what the ensembles have continued to trend is that a period of Pacific pattern shift should occur after 20th. This has been shown for awhile now. GOA and Alaskan ridge typically is a telling sign that colder air is likely to build and move. SW/W trough will allow it to bleed west and the interior of the continent via surface high pressures. In an El Nino year you tend to give benefit that the STJ is going to fuel a strong system, whatever system that tries to emerge.

For now we just continue to monitor if the ensembles keeps that trend and what quality of cold air, if any, is involved.

[Ntxw]

2009 and 1963 December is in that time frame centered, albeit those years were later. Both those historical time periods featured winter storms and cold.

[Brent]

I'm officially intrigued in the Thanksgiving weekend timeframe here. That is not the first GFS run that has at least tried to show something

While we cannot say there is going to be a winter storm this early, what the ensembles have continued to trend is that a period of Pacific pattern shift should occur after 20th. This has been shown for awhile now. GOA and Alaskan ridge typically is a telling sign that colder air is likely to build and move. SW/W trough will allow it to bleed west and the interior of the continent via surface high pressures. In an El Nino year you tend to give benefit that the STJ is going to fuel a strong system, whatever system that tries to emerge.

For now we just continue to monitor if the ensembles keeps that trend and what quality of cold air, if any, is involved.

https://i.imgur.com/Dar7VSn.gif

Right I'm not saying anything will happen but this is the first possible setup of the season I think if it lines up right. I've heard the teleconnections may actually be favorable

[jasons2k]

Pretty incredible. While much of Texas has been in a severe drought over the past year, Texarkana will probably finish the year close to a foot above normal for rainfall. BTW, ominous signs in the long range as it pertains to El Nino enhanced severe weather.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vmxMWF3/Rain.jpg [/url]

That is pretty crazy considering the distance from drought-stricken areas like SE Texas.

This drought was short, but extremely intense with the heat.

[mmmmsnouts]

As much as Texas needs rain, Louisiana really needs rain. Something like 3/4 of the state currently in D4 drought which seems like it would be nearly impossible.

[Brent]

Cosgrove mentioned 09-10 what can possibly go wrong

[Gotwood]

Cosgrove mentioned 09-10 what can possibly go wrong

I unfortunately missed the historic snow in DFW in 2010. Would love to see something like that in person.

[Brent]

Cosgrove mentioned 09-10 what can possibly go wrong

I unfortunately missed the historic snow in DFW in 2010. Would love to see something like that in person.

Haha we had 22 inches of snow that winter. I can't even imagine...

[rwfromkansas]

Well, I learned today that the earliest sunset is not on the solstice. I’m 40. Yikes.

https://www.weather.gov/ilx/earliest-sunset

[cstrunk]

Pretty incredible. While much of Texas has been in a severe drought over the past year, Texarkana will probably finish the year close to a foot above normal for rainfall. BTW, ominous signs in the long range as it pertains to El Nino enhanced severe weather.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vmxMWF3/Rain.jpg [/url]

They are always cashing in!

[Iceresistance]

Fantasy range, but cold shot still possible by the End of November?


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SR22e.png

[Stratton23]

I think a big cold snap after thanksgiving is possible, we just need to see if we get any blocking over Alaska showing up in the models, although thats just one piece of the puzzle

[tajmahal]

A strong Arctic outbreak is a low probability for the Austin area and sourh Texas through at least December. The stratospheric polar vortex is forecast to strengthen, and atmospheric blocking in the high latitudes should be absent. That combination keeps the frigid air bottled up in the Arctic.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

[Cpv17]

A strong Arctic outbreak is a low probability for the Austin area and sourh Texas through at least December. The stratospheric polar vortex is forecast to strengthen, and atmospheric blocking in the high latitudes should be absent. That combination keeps the frigid air bottled up in the Arctic.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Yeah, oookay. We will see about that.

[Stratton23]

Im not buying the PV strengthening, ive heard that story too many times and it ends up stretching or splitting/ weakening, model guidance is already starting to show hints at blocking over alaska setting up aeound or just after thanksgiving , and even the euro is starting to show a bit of a build up of cold air in NW canada like the end of the GFS run,

[tajmahal]

Im not buying the PV strengthening, ive heard that story too many times and it ends up stretching or splitting/ weakening, model guidance is already starting to show hints at blocking over alaska setting up aeound or just after thanksgiving , and even the euro is starting to show a bit of a build up of cold air in NW canada like the end of the GFS run,

I recommend reading the link I posted. The author is a well–respected atmospheric scientist who publishes frequently about the stratospheric polar vortex in our most prestigious science journals.