MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KY THROUGH NERN TN AND EXTREME SWRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 190702Z - 190900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF
   THE TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT
   HIGHER THETA-E AIR NEWD BENEATH THE PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND
   1500 J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER AND SHIFT EWD
   THROUGH THE TN VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMING MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TN AND
   SERN KY ON THE COOL SIDE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT.
   LATEST RADAR DATA ALREADY SHOW ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING IN THIS
   AREA...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS
   TO ROTATE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...
   
   36408250 35718305 35518412 36348439 37158496 37418391

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KY...S CNTRL KY THROUGH EXTREME SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 205...
   
   VALID 190843Z - 191015Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD NEXT FEW
   HOURS. BEST THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS ON SRN END
   OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN KY. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S
   CNTRL KY.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM EXTREME SRN
   IND SWD INTO SWRN KY. THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE AND
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   HOWEVER...THE LINE IS MOSTLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
   STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE. THIS SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST WITH SRN END STORMS PRIOR TO
   BEING UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT 35 TO 40 KT AND WILL APPROACH THE ERN
   EDGE OF WW 205 BY 0915-0930Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE AND NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF MAINTAINING THEIR
   INTENSITY...ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED E OF WW 205.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...
   
   36998787 37188757 37478735 37838694 37348623 36658624
   36708773

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND NERN TN...SERN KY...SWRN VA
   AND WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206...207...
   
   VALID 191128Z - 191230Z
   
   OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS IN WW 206 TO WEAKEN...BUT ISOLATED
   HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A LINE OF STRONG
   STORMS CONTINUES IN WW 207 FROM S CNTRL KY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
   MIDDLE TN. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 206 THIS MORNING.
   PORTIONS OF SERN TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS
   MORNING.
   
   THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED TO WLY ACROSS TN. WARM ADVECTION AND
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
   SERN KY...SWRN VA...NERN TN AND WRN NC. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND HAS
   BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS INITIAL STRONG CELLS HAVE
   MERGED...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM REGION OVER
   PARTS OF NERN TN INTO WRN NC. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
   FARTHER W FROM S CNTRL KY SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND ARE
   BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 206. STRONGEST STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE. THE DECOUPLED
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR SERVED AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...AS HEATING COMMENCES...SOME
   RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
   TN...AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS
   MORNING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
   
   35278335 35928542 36118612 36748538 37378479 37528315
   37028239 35498151

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN THROUGH NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191258Z - 191500Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD
   THROUGH SERN TN AND INTO NWRN GA. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
   WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN TN AT
   AROUND 35 KT. THE 12Z RAOB FROM ATL SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE
   STABLE...BUT WITH MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
   GA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM THE NW
   ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE. STEEP LAPSE RATES
   UPSTREAM WILL SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES.
   RAOB DATA SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ARE NEEDED FOR
   STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...AND THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SEWD ADVANCING
   STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...
   
   33848478 35068565 35288447 34728415 34028400

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191656Z - 191900Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN GA OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  NEW WW IS ANTICIPATED...THOUGH NOT IMMINENT.
   LESSER SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- ALSO EXPECTED
   WITH MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS SRN SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS SERN GA...AS DAYTIME HEATING
   CONTINUES PER LATEST SURFACE OBS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTHWEST
   OF NW-SE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN
   AND ERN GA/SC. THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN GA SEWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO NEAR SAV...SW OF WHICH INSTABILITY HAS
   INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.
   
   THOUGH VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON -- CONFIRMED BY GRAVITY WAVE APPARENT IN VISIBLE
   LOOP...CONTINUED HEATING/MIXING COMBINED WITH LIFT INVOF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WITH
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING/INCREASING TO NWLY AT 40 TO 45 KT AT MID
   LEVELS...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS.  THOUGH
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT STORMS
   SHOULD ORGANIZED INTO A SEWD-MOVING LINE/BOW WITH TIME...CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   FURTHER NW -- ON COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   SC...STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS
   THIS REGION.  THOUGH LOCAL HEATING MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT
   SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FOR LIMITED DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   33488348 33698236 33748153 32738008 30978152 30688369
   32098418 33048418

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...FAR SRN AR AND NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191735Z - 191930Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS /WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT/ MAY DEVELOP
   BY 19Z OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER. AREA
   CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   17Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MESOLOW OVER FAR NERN TX NEAR
   GGG...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE
   AR/LA BORDER. MODIFIED 12Z SHV SOUNDING FOR 17Z SFC CONDITIONS
   INDICATES LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS WITH MODERATE CU
   OBSERVED RECENTLY ON VIS SAT IMAGERY JUST EAST OF GGG. ENHANCED
   CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MESOLOW AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATING/DIMINISHING CINH MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. DESPITE MARGINAL EFFECTIVE
   LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM ROTATION /35-40 KTS PER RECENT DE
   QUEEN AND PALESTINE PROFILER DATA /...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG / WILL AID IN STRONG UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
   /EVIDENT PER ACCAS FIELD ON SAT DATA/ SUGGESTS STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8 DEG C/KM / FURTHER SUPPORTING THREAT FOR LARGE
   SVR HAIL. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE INITIATED SVR
   CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...SOME OF THIS ACCAS MAY
   EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /AND BECOME SVR/ AS
   IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   33419209 33299303 33209380 33139417 32779466 32449490
   31959488 31659435 31609364 31779186 32349099 33199132

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL/NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...
   
   VALID 191839Z - 192015Z
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE -- MOST OF WHICH REMAIN SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED ON THE COOL SIDE OF SWWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE WARM
   ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED.
   
   STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST OFF THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY...REFLECTED BY OBJECTIVELY-ANALYZED 3500 TO
   4000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS NERN MS/NWRN AL -- W OF OUTFLOW
   WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
   
   THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR -- AND THEN
   ORGANIZE AND RIDE SEWD ALONG -- SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IN WHICH
   CASE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN
   SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN HAIL WITH SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED STORMS ON COOL
   SIDE OF OUTFLOW.
   
   WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- AND ASSOCIATED STORM DEVELOPMENT --
   CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SWWD TOWARD WRN PORTIONS OF WW OVER
   AL...THREAT MAY SPILL JUST W OF CURRENT WW AREA WITH TIME.
   HOWEVER...OVERALL WWD EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY APPARENT
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NWRN
   AL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34958591 34268384 33008303 32378555 32918768 34938746

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191901Z - 192100Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR
   DEL RIO ENEWD TO NORTH OF AUS STARTING AROUND 21Z. THE AREA
   CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS GRADUAL WEAKENING CINH ALONG A
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF DRT ENEWD TO BETWEEN
   TEMPLE AND AUSTIN. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
   TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA MX WHERE LITTLE TO NO CINH REMAINS. GIVEN
   AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH AT 18Z...SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING WILL
   BE REQUIRED BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY. RECENT TRENDS IN SAT AND SFC DATA INDICATES THAT THE
   BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SLOWLY NWD AND REACH A JCT TO TPL LINE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE EARLIEST INITIATION WILL BE IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW /JUST NORTH OF DRT/ WHERE SFC
   CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SUPPORT FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
   APPEARS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
   ACROSS NRN MX COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM
   2500-3000 J/KG / AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /35-45 KTS/. ANY STORM
   THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVE COOLING. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW
   LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ELY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...LCL HEIGHTS WILL
   BE FAIRLY HIGH /1.5-2 KM/ WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   30460048 29910124 29470106 29200051 30019804 30529661
   31099632 31419669 31319762 30839950

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN AL/W CENTRAL GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...
   
   VALID 191931Z - 192100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WWD ACROSS GA INTO AL.  NEW WW
   WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED...TO REPLACE WW 208 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
   EXPIRE AT 20/21Z.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS -- NOW SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS -- DEVELOPING
   WWD ACROSS NWRN AL JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF WSWWD-MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.  ADDITIONALLY... A NEW STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN MORGAN
   COUNTY AL...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE NW-SE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
   NW-SW PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. 
   
   WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THIS AREA...IT APPEARS THAT
   STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING
   INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.  THUS...EXPECT SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF
   STORMS TO REMAIN TIED TO THE OUTFLOW...AND INVOF THE OUTFLOW/SURFACE
   TROUGH INTERSECTION.
   
   GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WELL
   BEYOND THE 21Z EXPIRATION OF WW 208.  THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY
   BE ISSUED SHORTLY...ADDRESSING THE ONGOING THREAT FOR HAIL AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A COUPLE TORNADOES.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...
   
   34708535 33258393 32248338 31698536 32888728 34938746

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NCENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192018Z - 192215Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING ELEVATED
   CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL/NCENTRAL TX THROUGH
   THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTM A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION WAS
   LOCATED IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER. IN THIS LAYER...MOISTURE WAS INCREASING
   BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 3 KM. SUFFICIENT
   MOISTENING/ASCENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS TO INITIATE A
   FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SWRN TX 50-75 MILES NORTH OF THE SFC
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSPECTION OF RECENT RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE IS POSSIBLE IF THE
   MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS NEGATED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE
   COVERAGE AND/OR INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   WILL INCREASE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH 40-50
   KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR BE SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL NEWD
   INTO NCENTRAL TX.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
   
   33219708 31750007 30930076 30670058 30789931 31689762
   32339650 33139607 33309639

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/SERN AL/NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192040Z - 192245Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT INCREASING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN AL/SRN
   GA.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MEAN-LAYER CAPE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG/ IS
   INDICATED NEAR AND S OF MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH CURRENTLY
   EXTENDS FROM LEE COUNTY AL ESEWD ACROSS SRN GA TO COASTAL AREAS OF
   CHATHAM/LIBERTY/BRYAN COUNTIES IN SERN GA.  CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE
   EVIDENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
   COASTAL SE GA...NEAR INTERSECTION OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A WWD-MOVING
   SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY.
   
   THOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS
   REGION AS OPPOSED TO AREAS FURTHER N...PARAMETERS ARE NONETHELESS
   SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT.  THOUGH CAPPING HAS HELD CONVECTION IN
   CHECK THUS FAR...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS THROUGH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD.  WITH THREAT FOR HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WHICH
   DEVELOP...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
   
   31818127 31178146 30398153 30248246 30558451 31318549
   32208608 32258545 31778348

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AR...ECENTRAL/NERN TX AND NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...
   
   VALID 192055Z - 192300Z
   
   CONTINUE ALL OF WW 209.
   
   ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS YET TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND STRENGTHEN. SINCE IT/S STILL RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
   AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS CONVECTION TO
   STILL BECOME ROOTED AND INTENSIFY AS CINH REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
   OVER NRN LA/ECENTRAL TX. ALSO...RECENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CINH
   REMAINS WEAK OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 209 AS TOWERING CU IS EVIDENT
   OVER FAR NERN TX /IN THE VICINITY OF A MESOLOW/ AND TO A LESSER
   EXTENT ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SRN AR.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   33409302 33619414 33379475 32669539 31419540 31039532
   31969102 33769120

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CNTRL MS...WRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192150Z - 192315Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   ACROSS NRN MS WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND DRIFTING
   SSEWD ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 2230Z
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NRN MS
   WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGH SFC
   DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE RESULTING IN STRONG
   INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION WILL
   ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE AND SPREAD SSEWD THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 30 KT...SUBSTANTIAL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW 700 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS OF GREATER THAN 20 DEGREES F WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS AND MORE WELL-DEVELOPED LINE
   SEGMENTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   
   34119007 34468917 34418843 33718741 33038711 32448701
   32188780 32118867 32428940 32959020 33489031 33689029

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192212Z - 200015Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL TX /SW OF THE DFW METRO AREA/ MAY
   INTENSIFY AND BECOME SVR AS THEY MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL/NERN TX
   /AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 209/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRENDS
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RECENT SAT OBS INDICATES THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE /CENTERED AROUND THE
   850 MB LAYER/ WAS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE MORE RAPIDLY NORTH OF A SFC
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT NWD OVER CENTRAL TX. AS
   THIS MOISTURE MOVES NWD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THE MID LEVEL
   CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 3 KM AND AID IN AN INTENSIFICATION
   PROCESS WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF SWRN TX. FCST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE WILL BE REALIZED BY THESE STORMS OVER NCENTRAL/NERN TX. GIVEN
   40-45 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...AN INCREASING SVR HAIL THREAT
   WOULD THUS OCCUR.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
   
   33249467 32769717 32569790 32359873 32129881 31499838
   31469761 31609668 32119513 32329445 32959425

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...
   
   VALID 192253Z - 200100Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW FOR MOST OF WW 211 FOR
   THE NEXT 1-2 HRS /THROUGH 00Z/. HOWEVER THE SVR THREAT IS
   ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE / ESPECIALLY OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 211
   THEREAFTER/.
   
   A LARGE CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH SVR TSTM CLUSTER OVER NRN
   COAHUILA MX HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EWD
   INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS EVIDENT BY A 5-7 DEG
   COOLING TREND NOTED IN RECENT SFC OBS FROM DRT AND ECU. CONVECTION
   ON THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA /AND
   NORTH OF THE LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD/ MAY BE THE FIRST TO POSE A RENEWED
   SVR THREAT AS IT MOVES INTO NRN VAL VERDE...CROCKETT AND SUTTON
   COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. A GREATER SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
   WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
   NRN COAHUILA MX AS THEY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE INTO SRN
   MAVERICK COUNTY /AROUND 01Z/. FURTHER NORTH...ELEVATED SVR POTENTIAL
   WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z OVER THE NRN EDWARDS PLATEAU/CONCHO
   VALLEY REGION AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS NORTH OF A SLOWLY
   MOVING WARM FRONT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   31520019 30780115 29920121 28510116 29739801 31909807

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER-MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 200031Z - 200230Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN COAHUILA MX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   EWD AROUND 20-25 KTS AND ENTER WEBB AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND 02Z.
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS APPEAR LIKELY IF STORMS CAN
   MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER INHIBITION FURTHER
   EAST.
   
   00Z DRT/BRO SOUNDINGS INPUT WITH OBSERVATION AT LRD INDICATES A
   EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.
   CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS /WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE/ OVER NERN COAHUILA
   MX WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD CROSS THE RIO GRANDE AROUND 02Z. GIVEN
   THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE-LOWER RIO GRANGE RIVER
   VALLEY..IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
   AREA. HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST...CINH WAS HIGHER AND SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS EVENING. THUS THE SVR
   THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN A 3-5 COUNTY AREA
   SOUTH OF WW 211.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   29079962 28700010 27779989 27219925 27559888 28079875
   29209910

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL TX...NRN LA AND SRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...
   
   VALID 200041Z - 200215Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 209 VALID
   TIME /02Z/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT STILL REMAINS
   AND MODERATE INSTABILITY NO CLEARANCE OF WW 209 APPEARS WARRANTED
   ATTM.
   
   00Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWED A NEARLY UNCAPPED MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   PROFILE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
   SHORTWAVE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS NOW LEFT MOST OF WW 209 IN A
   REGION OF NEUTRAL FORCING. ALONG WITH THIS...THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
   THAT WAS ONCE ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER HAS GRADUALLY LIFTED NWD AND IS
   NOW ALONG THE FAR NRN EDGE OF WW 209 ACROSS SRN AR. GIVEN LIMITED
   REMAINING HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEW TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...ELEVATED
   CONVECTION /REF 00Z FWD SOUNDING/ IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE INTO WW
   209 UNTIL AFTER 02Z GIVEN RECENT OBSERVED CELL MOTIONS. HOWEVER
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LIMITED CINH IN PLACE...IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT THIS NCENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY STILL
   INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD AND THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
   PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 02Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   33329472 32669545 30989538 31979116 33699119 33559374

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AL...SW GA...NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...
   
   VALID 200051Z - 200215Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF AL...SW GA AND
   NRN FL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE THREAT IN AL SHOULD
   GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD ACROSS THE SE PART OF WW 213. ALTHOUGH THE AREA
   ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...IT APPEARS
   A NEW WATCH WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TO REPLACE WW 210.
   
   A LARGE COMPLEX OF MOSTLY ELEVATED STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
   NCNTRL AL JUST BEHIND THE COOL SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS MOVING WWD EVIDENT
   ON WSR-88D. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CNTRL AL...NEW CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE ONGOING MCS DRIFTING SLOWLY SSWWD
   ACROSS THE SERN PART OF WW 213. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
   OF SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER
   COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AL AND SWRN GA/NRN FL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
   INSTABILITY SLOWLY DECREASES THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
   
   30878551 31908695 32838792 33318798 33848766 33928695
   33618652 32928587 31658411 31298391 31008396 30598436
   30618489

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0830 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 200130Z - 200230Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   THROUGH THE EVENING. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE N OF WARM FRONT IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE.
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WITH STRONG ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. GIVEN CONTINUING WARM
   ADVECTION...STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   31840189 32850151 33270041 33489746 33309648 32049607
   31479672 31669983 31470161

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL THROUGH PARTS OF WRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214...
   
   VALID 200743Z - 200845Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214 WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY
   ANOTHER WW BY 08Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MAY DEVELOP
   FARTHER W LATER THIS MORNING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING...A SELY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH WRN TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER
   THETA-E AIR NWWD WITH TIME BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT WHERE
   THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INTERSECTING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WV IMAGERY
   SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NM. DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SELY LOW
   LEVEL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
   MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FARTHER W.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
   
   32349831 31950077 31760231 32440247 32920175 32860005
   32769831