Florida Weather
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Re: Florida Weather
I beg to differ. Looks like rainy season gonna commence by end of the week. If the models are right.
The east wind will prevail into the weekend, but guidance
continues to suggest significant moisture will work northward from
the northwest Caribbean starting Thursday. Rain chances have now
be raised to likely for Friday and Saturday, with low end
thunderstorm chances also in the forecast as confidence in fairly
wet pattern increases. Temperatures will be near normal for mid-
may into the weekend.
The east wind will prevail into the weekend, but guidance
continues to suggest significant moisture will work northward from
the northwest Caribbean starting Thursday. Rain chances have now
be raised to likely for Friday and Saturday, with low end
thunderstorm chances also in the forecast as confidence in fairly
wet pattern increases. Temperatures will be near normal for mid-
may into the weekend.
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hurricanelonny
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Re: Florida Weather
Not me being right. I hope the models don't flip flop. They tend to back off the closer it gets to the rain event. Consistency is the key to the model runs. So I guess will see. I think just a better chance of showers. Not a wash out.
Latest model solutions continue to suggest significant moisture
returning to the area from the northwest Caribbean starting late
Thursday, and increasing chances of rain for Friday and Saturday.
There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorm through the
weekend.
Latest model solutions continue to suggest significant moisture
returning to the area from the northwest Caribbean starting late
Thursday, and increasing chances of rain for Friday and Saturday.
There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorm through the
weekend.
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hurricanelonny
- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
Here's the official start to the Florida rainy season!? With YET another frontal passage expected to bring low humidity and low rain chances the next few days we will likely have to wait until at least late week for a permanent change.
Latest model solutions continue to suggest significant moisture
returning to the area from the NW Caribbean starting late
Thursday, and increasing chances of rain for Friday and Saturday.
There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorm through the
weekend.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Yeah I agree this weekend could be the official start with that moisture surge...
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Re: Florida Weather
Then again the weather channel had me at 90% today. No rain on radar. Sure they dropped %. Just didn't check.
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hurricanelonny
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Re: Florida Weather
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Re: Florida Weather
Taffy wrote:Please help me understand what the colors represent.
Taffy, at least with regard to the above map from Levi's site.... the colors in the map represent higher wind speeds at the 200mb level (upper level of the atmosphere). While the area of white may represent slower (more gentle) upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico and eventually over Florida, of importance here is the direction of those winds (rather then the strength of them). The counter-clockwise rotation from this upper level low pressure feature tends to act as a pulley by grabbing hold of the rich and moist air extending from the W. Caribbean/Central America Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and eventually yanking it up and northward over W. Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas. Typically during the hurricane season, any time you might see a stream of 200mb "color" over an area of the tropics or sub-tropics this might suggest generally unfavorable upper air conditions for a tropical cyclone to either form or move into. El Nino years often cause these higher than normal upper level winds to stream across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and parts of the Atlantic. During more favorable condition years, these stronger upper level winds tend to remain in the higher northern latitudes with less often occasional dips to the south sometimes occurring over, near, or east of the Eastern CONUS.
Perhaps beyond the scope of your question but of interest in the longer term (days to week beyond) is whether this "weakness" in the upper levels might reflect a bit lower in the atmosphere to around the mid-level steering levels. If so... and depending on if more or less over Florida, just east of Florida, or altogether gone.... could play a steering role in any "potential" early Caribbean tropical system that the GFS model is consistently forecasting to take form in the 228 hour span.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
I will not yet jump on the bandwagon for potential development in the NW Caribbean until Saturday at the earliest.I definitely want to see more models develop that area the next few days. I like to get inside of 10 days before looking at potential tropical cyclone development in that area. We should have a better idea of this potential this upcoming weekend.
We have had a great stretch of weather here since late April. We still have yet to hit 90 degrees officially at the NWS Jax office nor here at my home locale. Seabreezes have been able to push inland by mid afternoon most days and have kept temps from reaching We are getting dry again as we have not had any measurable rain since April 27.
Yeah. It looks as if we will finally get an influx of rich moisture on southerly flow from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. beginning Sunday and into next week. Models are developing a mid/upper level trough over the Eastern GOM and literally it meanders there for days. This will set the stage of opening up Mother Nature's faucet across the peninsula . We should see some beneficial rainfall next week over the region.
We have had a great stretch of weather here since late April. We still have yet to hit 90 degrees officially at the NWS Jax office nor here at my home locale. Seabreezes have been able to push inland by mid afternoon most days and have kept temps from reaching We are getting dry again as we have not had any measurable rain since April 27.
Yeah. It looks as if we will finally get an influx of rich moisture on southerly flow from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. beginning Sunday and into next week. Models are developing a mid/upper level trough over the Eastern GOM and literally it meanders there for days. This will set the stage of opening up Mother Nature's faucet across the peninsula . We should see some beneficial rainfall next week over the region.
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Re: Florida Weather
WPC 7 day QPF has had a consistent them of heavy rain potential favoring the southeast part of the state...generally south and east of a line from the cape to the keys. this will likely bridge south florida into the rainy season which typically gets going in mid May anyway in that region.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
Looks like the rainy season is about to kick off this weekend here in South Florida at least in a BIG way this year!
6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook
Days 3-7 Hazards Outlook
Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook
Days 3-7 Hazards Outlook
Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
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Re: Florida Weather
psyclone wrote:WPC 7 day QPF has had a consistent them of heavy rain potential favoring the southeast part of the state...generally south and east of a line from the cape to the keys. this will likely bridge south florida into the rainy season which typically gets going in mid May anyway in that region.
Do you have a link to that page I can never find it.
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Re: Florida Weather
Thank you Chaser1. Excellent explanation of the map and what it was showing. Now I understand what I am looking at.
Let it rain!
Let it rain!
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Taffy-SW Florida
Re: Florida Weather
Taffy wrote:Thank you Chaser1. Excellent explanation of the map and what it was showing. Now I understand what I am looking at.
Let it rain!
Very welcome
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Florida Weather
Some years we just kinda ease into the rainy season. Other years, we get a catalyst. Looks like this will be one of those years.
I tended to think we are already in the rainy season, but dewpoint this AM is still 67 degrees....we still haven't met the "days above 70" criterion.
I tended to think we are already in the rainy season, but dewpoint this AM is still 67 degrees....we still haven't met the "days above 70" criterion.
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Re: Florida Weather
Crap it's gonna rain. The NWS Miami radar is down. Always rains when that happens.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no
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hurricanelonny
Re: Florida Weather
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Crap it's gonna rain. The NWS Miami radar is down. Always rains when that happens.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 11&loop=no
I don't see anything on my radar app. See plenty of rain in the FL Straits though. It's coming!
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Well, finally measured the first 90 degree reading of 2018 yesterday. 91.2 degrees at my locale. Today is forecast to reach into the lower 90s interior.
The models are showing development of a mid-upper trough over the Eastern GOM on Monday. GFS wants to develop a surface reflection off shore of the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday morning.
Bottom line, regardless of development, deep moisture on southerly flow from this system will bring widespread beneficial rain to the entire peninsula next week. Heavy rainfall potential will also be possible as well.Definitely will monitor this next week.
It is still too soon for me to get fully invested with regards of what the GFS insists on developing a potential healthy tropical cyclone moving north out of the Caribbean just beyond the 10 day range. GFS is still basically mostly all out on a limb with this. I think by the end of this weekend, we have have a better idea of the situation. The other reliable models have to start showing development for me to get more intrigued. However, no doubt, wet times are in store for the state going forward and the rainy season finally looks to kick into gear starting next week..
The models are showing development of a mid-upper trough over the Eastern GOM on Monday. GFS wants to develop a surface reflection off shore of the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday morning.
Bottom line, regardless of development, deep moisture on southerly flow from this system will bring widespread beneficial rain to the entire peninsula next week. Heavy rainfall potential will also be possible as well.Definitely will monitor this next week.
It is still too soon for me to get fully invested with regards of what the GFS insists on developing a potential healthy tropical cyclone moving north out of the Caribbean just beyond the 10 day range. GFS is still basically mostly all out on a limb with this. I think by the end of this weekend, we have have a better idea of the situation. The other reliable models have to start showing development for me to get more intrigued. However, no doubt, wet times are in store for the state going forward and the rainy season finally looks to kick into gear starting next week..
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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