Texas Fall 2023

[Brent]

GFS has gotten much colder on Thanksgiving here today. Have to see if that holds up. It's still not that cold by any means but considering it was pushing 70 yesterday

[Ntxw]

Ensembles showing Alaskan ridging. As mentioned before Halloween, usually indicative of a cold shot.

[Stratton23]

looks like the 12z euro is showing that cold air beginning to spill into the US at day 10, pretty impressive blocking ridge over alaska as well

[Brent]

looks like the 12z euro is showing that cold air beginning to spill into the US at day 10, pretty impressive blocking ridge over alaska as well

Yeah definitely at least an initial front for Thanksgiving

[Ntxw]

Thanksgiving week and beyond looks quite interesting still. -EPO, fairly stout Alaskan blocking. -PDO a factor too, with the carved western trough if there is HP could see cold beat the models down the plains. If this were +PDO/PNA the east would party, but nope.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx interesting indeed, if the sub tropical jet is in place over texas, and if this pattern verifies, we could be looking at a pretty decent winter storm across the state, lots to watch for sure

[Brent]

Our TV met just posted on Facebook about Arctic air around Thanksgiving

[tajmahal]

Some ensemble temperature forecasts for Thanksgiving Day:

.GEFS......EPS
50–31...51–34...Amarillo
60–47...67–52...Austin Camp Mabry
71–65...76–64...Brownsville
28–15...25–15...Casper
55–45...56–49...Dallas
37–18...36–20...Denver
60–44...61–40...El Paso
67–54...71–56...Houston
49–37...52–40...Tulsa
B21–B24...B31–B36...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia
46–31...47–34...Woodward
19–14...10–03...Yellowknife, Yukon, Canada

[Stratton23]

Pretty good bet that arctic air will be coming down, its just a matter of how cold will it get and how far south it will go, im siding with the Euro and CMC solutions , I think the cold air will make it all the way down to mexico

[Brent]

Pretty good bet that arctic air will be coming down, its just a matter of how cold will it get and how far south it will go, im siding with the Euro and CMC solutions , I think the cold air will make it all the way down to mexico

If it's really arctic air the models will just keep trending colder imo. That's the key here we always see how they struggle with it. I mean even the Halloween cold was like that

[Ntxw]

Pretty good bet that arctic air will be coming down, its just a matter of how cold will it get and how far south it will go, im siding with the Euro and CMC solutions , I think the cold air will make it all the way down to mexico

At this range ensembles 500mb flow probably provides a better glimpse than the OPs. Raised heights over AK historically tends to seed western Canada with cold air. Then it depends on progress of the split flow below. My bet is gradually see a 1040s surface high pressure dome down the Canadian Prairies and Plains with time.

The Alaskan blocking has been modeled on the ensembles pretty steadily for some time now.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here is a old indicater of the coming Winter (Woolly Bear Caterpillars) The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.

I can't tell you how many of these I have over the past 2 weeks, probably close to a 100 by now which is way more than normal. I see these lage black fuzzy caterpillars crossing the roads, in the yard and on the trees,
most have been almost solid black thick with fuzz and very active. So will this be a colder than normal Winter? we shall see my friends.

[gpsnowman]

Here is a old indicater of the coming Winter (Woolly Bear Caterpillars) The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.

I can't tell you how many of these I have over the past 2 weeks, probably close to a 100 by now which is way more than normal. I see these lage black fuzzy caterpillars crossing the roads, in the yard andon the trees.
Most have be almost solid black thick with fuzz and very active. So will this be a colder than normal Winter? we shall see my friends.

I haven't seen that many but the ones I have are black and fuzzy also. Hopefully some lore that is a predictor of a cold winter!!

[tajmahal]

I, for one, am not wishing for a repeat this winter of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak for the ERCOT service area, which is most of Texas. A report from the National Electricity Reliability Corporation last week said that demand would exceed supply by more than 5 gigawatts. That would mean "rolling" blackouts. How "rolling" they would be depends on how fine–grained the circuits are in each locality.

[Brent]

I, for one, am not wishing for a repeat this winter of the February 2021 Arctic outbreak for the ERCOT service area, which is most of Texas. A report from the National Electricity Reliability Corporation last week said that demand would exceed supply by more than 5 gigawatts. That would mean "rolling" blackouts. How "rolling" they would be depends on how fine–grained the circuits are in each locality.

Oh I don't want a repeat of 2021 either.. but I do want to do better than the mess of last winter

[Iceresistance]

SOI index is crashing, today's daily value is at -32.77

[Tejas89]

It’s that time of year we see references to animal behaviors, and various tree nuts to help forecast the winter.

One thing we generally don’t want is a very chilly November - which we haven’t seen and not in the immediate outlook. That’s often meant flipping back to a warm pattern for the first half of winter.

[Quixotic]

Juncos have been here since before Halloween. I like seeing 63-64, 09-10 and 13-14 showing up in discussions. El Niño and -QBO? Real promising.

[cheezyWXguy]

Here is a old indicater of the coming Winter (Woolly Bear Caterpillars) The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.

I can't tell you how many of these I have over the past 2 weeks, probably close to a 100 by now which is way more than normal. I see these lage black fuzzy caterpillars crossing the roads, in the yard and on the trees,
most have been almost solid black thick with fuzz and very active. So will this be a colder than normal Winter? we shall see my friends.

I hate the be the buzzkill here, but this doesn’t quite hold up. The caterpillar’s coat is a reflection of the previous growing season, not the season to come. It could also potentially be a different variety of the caterpillar that is just naturally black colored. I know, I must be real fun at parties

More info here:
https://www.weather.gov/arx/woollybear#:~:text=The%20longer%20the%20woolly%20bear's,will%20be%20coldest%20or%20hardest.

[rwfromkansas]

I know they aren't that scientific, but all the lore predictions are fun. Lol.

I remember as a kid having a "weather stick" my dad got that would bend down I think if it was supposed to rain.