Texas Fall 2019

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 0z&6z ECMWF,GFS, and CMC it has several members with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s during the afternoon hours on Tuesday for Deep South Texas. Will be interesting to see how this event unfolds and hopefully this is the start of many winter tracking events for the state of Texas!

[aggiecutter]

I'm surprised nobody from my area of the state has posted this snippet from the morning AFD out of NWS Austin San Antonio:

Monday will bring the coldest front so far this season, and like the
front from Thursday, another midday arrival will make the temperature
trend forecast challenging. A complicating factor with this system
has taken a turn for the worse in that a cut-off upper low to the
west is trending stronger and closer to TX on the heels of the front.
This increases the chance for isentropic lift well behind the front.
As temperatures are likely to hit freezing for most of the area by
Tuesday morning, a winter mix is possible Tuesday morning. Current
deterministic solutions would not suggest measurable amounts at this
time with either some flurries or light freezing rain to create
minimal impacts at least for Tuesday. However, should this pattern
continue amplifying with subsequent model runs, there could be a need
to consider some light accumulation in the future updates. The cut-
off low is forecast by the GFS/ECM to drag across TX Wednesday into
Thursday leading to more light precip chances.

Mainly a brief mix of precip is in the forecast for the metro cities
Tuesday morning and only rain is forecast for Wednesday. Pattern
amplification could change the picture for Wednesday as well, as min
temps will still be near or below freezing. A freeze warning for the
first freeze will likely be needed for most, if not all of the
counties along and south of Hwy 90. The temperatures should moderate
to well above freezing by midday Wednesday and thus end the potential
for any winter impacts going forward. A dry and continued chilly
pattern will finish out the work week.

I predict that Austin will be inundated with freezing drizzle and unknown precipitation, whatever that is. BTW, there is snow in the forecast for Texarkana on Monday night.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm surprised nobody from my area of the state has posted this snippet from the morning AFD out of NWS Austin San Antonio:

Monday will bring the coldest front so far this season, and like the
front from Thursday, another midday arrival will make the temperature
trend forecast challenging. A complicating factor with this system
has taken a turn for the worse in that a cut-off upper low to the
west is trending stronger and closer to TX on the heels of the front.
This increases the chance for isentropic lift well behind the front.
As temperatures are likely to hit freezing for most of the area by
Tuesday morning, a winter mix is possible Tuesday morning. Current
deterministic solutions would not suggest measurable amounts at this
time with either some flurries or light freezing rain to create
minimal impacts at least for Tuesday. However, should this pattern
continue amplifying with subsequent model runs, there could be a need
to consider some light accumulation in the future updates. The cut-
off low is forecast by the GFS/ECM to drag across TX Wednesday into
Thursday leading to more light precip chances.

Mainly a brief mix of precip is in the forecast for the metro cities
Tuesday morning and only rain is forecast for Wednesday. Pattern
amplification could change the picture for Wednesday as well, as min
temps will still be near or below freezing. A freeze warning for the
first freeze will likely be needed for most, if not all of the
counties along and south of Hwy 90. The temperatures should moderate
to well above freezing by midday Wednesday and thus end the potential
for any winter impacts going forward. A dry and continued chilly
pattern will finish out the work week.

I honestly forgot to read the discussion. I'm slacking. I saw the graphic they had, but didn't want to jump the gun yet since they mentioned little to no accumulation on the graphic. Seen so many false promises. Although right now if the temperature were 15 or fewer degrees colder, we'd be in a big mess around town.



A warming trend is expected Saturday into Sunday, however temperatures remain below normal. An Arctic cold front will move across our area Monday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along with breezy northerly winds causing temperatures to plummet again. A freeze is possible across the Hill Country into Central Texas Tuesday morning and much of the region on Wednesday morning. There will be a brief window for a rain/snow mix behind the front Monday night into Tuesday morning, but little to no accumulations are expected.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm surprised nobody from my area of the state has posted this snippet from the morning AFD out of NWS Austin San Antonio:

Monday will bring the coldest front so far this season, and like the
front from Thursday, another midday arrival will make the temperature
trend forecast challenging. A complicating factor with this system
has taken a turn for the worse in that a cut-off upper low to the
west is trending stronger and closer to TX on the heels of the front.
This increases the chance for isentropic lift well behind the front.
As temperatures are likely to hit freezing for most of the area by
Tuesday morning, a winter mix is possible Tuesday morning. Current
deterministic solutions would not suggest measurable amounts at this
time with either some flurries or light freezing rain to create
minimal impacts at least for Tuesday. However, should this pattern
continue amplifying with subsequent model runs, there could be a need
to consider some light accumulation in the future updates. The cut-
off low is forecast by the GFS/ECM to drag across TX Wednesday into
Thursday leading to more light precip chances.

Mainly a brief mix of precip is in the forecast for the metro cities
Tuesday morning and only rain is forecast for Wednesday. Pattern
amplification could change the picture for Wednesday as well, as min
temps will still be near or below freezing. A freeze warning for the
first freeze will likely be needed for most, if not all of the
counties along and south of Hwy 90. The temperatures should moderate
to well above freezing by midday Wednesday and thus end the potential
for any winter impacts going forward. A dry and continued chilly
pattern will finish out the work week.

I predict that Austin will be inundated with freezing drizzle and unknown precipitation, whatever that is. BTW, there is snow in the forecast for Texarkana on Monday night.

We're going to have an inclement weather day at work because of freezing drizzle, yet the streets will be dry. Seen that happen many times around here. But, I've also seen the opposite where they didn't close work until after the temperature dropped to freezing and below and it was raining, ice starting to accumulate. The roads were a mess getting home.

I guess based on that, that's why they "jump the gun" so much now with a threat of a few freezing drizzle drops. Live and learn.

[Ralph's Weather]

Snow has entered the forecast for Lindale. Kinda surprised they are putting in the forecast this far out for a very uncertain event that at max appears to be a dusting.

[TexasF6]

I'm surprised nobody from my area of the state has posted this snippet from the morning AFD out of NWS Austin San Antonio:

Monday will bring the coldest front so far this season, and like the
front from Thursday, another midday arrival will make the temperature
trend forecast challenging. A complicating factor with this system
has taken a turn for the worse in that a cut-off upper low to the
west is trending stronger and closer to TX on the heels of the front.
This increases the chance for isentropic lift well behind the front.
As temperatures are likely to hit freezing for most of the area by
Tuesday morning, a winter mix is possible Tuesday morning. Current
deterministic solutions would not suggest measurable amounts at this
time with either some flurries or light freezing rain to create
minimal impacts at least for Tuesday. However, should this pattern
continue amplifying with subsequent model runs, there could be a need
to consider some light accumulation in the future updates. The cut-
off low is forecast by the GFS/ECM to drag across TX Wednesday into
Thursday leading to more light precip chances.

Mainly a brief mix of precip is in the forecast for the metro cities
Tuesday morning and only rain is forecast for Wednesday. Pattern
amplification could change the picture for Wednesday as well, as min
temps will still be near or below freezing. A freeze warning for the
first freeze will likely be needed for most, if not all of the
counties along and south of Hwy 90. The temperatures should moderate
to well above freezing by midday Wednesday and thus end the potential
for any winter impacts going forward. A dry and continued chilly
pattern will finish out the work week.

CHAMP THE CHARGER>>>GREY GOOSE>>>READY???

[Haris]

Hmmmmmmm

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like DFW gets screwed and folks to the south will get it. I am not shocked.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/6Z7hWk9/B9 4-A6108-C883-4211-AA1-C-0-A5-B04648-D39.png [/url]

Hmmmmmmm

Woah, thats a lot of members showing winter precip.

[Ralph's Weather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/6Z7hWk9/B9 4-A6108-C883-4211-AA1-C-0-A5-B04648-D39.png [/url]

Hmmmmmmm

Woah, thats a lot of members showing winter precip.

Euro has some members showing snow but not near as many.

[gpsnowman]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/6Z7hWk9/B9 4-A6108-C883-4211-AA1-C-0-A5-B04648-D39.png [/url]

Hmmmmmmm

Woah, thats a lot of members showing winter precip.

Most have it all south of DFW. But hey, I hope central Texas gets a taste of some early season winter fun!!! DFW will have chances in the next 4 months.

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/6Z7hWk9/B9 4-A6108-C883-4211-AA1-C-0-A5-B04648-D39.png [/url]

Hmmmmmmm

Woah, thats a lot of members showing winter precip.

Most have it all south of DFW. But hey, I hope central Texas gets a taste of some early season winter fun!!! DFW will have chances in the next 4 months.

haha we better though we never got it the last couple times it happened...

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the precip may outrun the cold temps back towards Dallas. Transition per GFS ensembles seems to be after midnight. Generally the best chance looks to be between I-10 and I-20 statewide with bullseye in high terrain of West Texas and a secondary bullseye around Toledo Bend.

[Brent]

Hmmmm its not completely hopeless at least on the GEFS. Honestly i'm done with this missing to the south

[Haris]

This euro run sucks.

I’ll cheer myself up with the gefs

[South Texas Storms]

This euro run sucks.

I’ll cheer myself up with the gefs

But how about that big cut-off low approaching from the west in 10 days?

[Ralph's Weather]

This euro run sucks.

I’ll cheer myself up with the gefs

But how about that big cut-off low approaching from the west in 10 days?

That Baja energy is the key to it all, when and how intact does it eject?

[hamburgerman7070]

This euro run sucks.

I’ll cheer myself up with the gefs

But how about that big cut-off low approaching from the west in 10 days?

That Baja energy is the key to it all, when and how intact does it eject?

It will be too warm by then. I think it will be a month before our next winter weather opportunity. Not being a debbie downer, but trying to be realistic also

[Ralph's Weather]

But how about that big cut-off low approaching from the west in 10 days?

That Baja energy is the key to it all, when and how intact does it eject?

It will be too warm by then. I think it will be a month before our next winter weather opportunity. Not being a debbie downer, but trying to be realistic also

Just depends on -EPO.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting EWX discussion for early next week.



000
FXUS64 KEWX 082119
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
319 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Isentropic downglide is beginning to develop as flow aloft turns
northwest and therefore the areas of light rain across southeast
counties should exit the region through the remainder of the
afternoon. Partial clearing is possible later this evening and
through the overnight across the northeast half of the CWA, with low
clouds remaining in place across southwest areas. The remainder of
the clouds should gradually erode during the day on Saturday. Much
warmer conditions Saturday afternoon, with highs forecast in the 60s
to even near 70 across northeast areas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Weak ridging moves across the region on Sunday and as southerly low
level flow becomes established temperatures warm further into the
70s for highs.

A northern stream trough is forecast to deepen through the Central
CONUS and Great Lakes late Sunday and Monday, sending a dense, cold
airmass south into South Central Texas Monday afternoon and night.
The cold front is currently forecast to arrive into the northern
Hill Country early Monday afternoon, into the I-35 corridor late
afternoon, and through the southeast CWA early evening. Sharply
falling temperatures are expected along with windy conditions through
the night. Initially a few showers are possible along and ahead of
the front. More widespread, light rain is expected to develop behind
the front through the evening and overnight.

Complicating the forecast is a cut-off upper level low deep in
latitude swinging through Baja California. The low is currently
forecast to remain just far enough to the west that an end in post
frontal precipitation from north to south should take north to south
into Tuesday morning. When that end in precipitation takes place is
critical to the forecasting of winter precip type across the region
early Tuesday morning. Using a top-down forecast approach, 12Z
forecasting soundings indicate a sufficiently cold cloud layer in
the dendritic growth region to introduce ice down into the "warm"
layer. However, forecast soundings also indicate a very warm nose of
6-10 deg C in the "warm" layer Monday evening, resulting in melting
and a cold, light rain over the region. Low level cold air advection
is currently forecast to result in freezing temps across the Hill
Country after midnight, and a change over to freezing rain could
occur through the overnight across this region. Freezing rain could
develop into northern portions of the I-35 corridor Tuesday morning,
especially on elevated surfaces. Forecast sounding do indicate the
warm nose begins to cool overnight, and by 12Z Tuesday *IF* precip
is still occurring a brief changeover to snow could occur across
portions of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. NBM probabilities
for snow > 0.1" still indicate a 30-50% probability through portions
of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, but less than 15% elsewhere.
Therefore we will keep a mention of a slight chance of light snow
early Tuesday morning across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.
Caution is advised this far out still, as fluctuations in models and
winter precip type are still likely. Also of note, wind chill values
late Monday night into Tuesday morning are forecast to dip into the
teens to low 20s for many areas.

Dry and cold conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon and night.
Eventually the upper level low to the west is forecast to eject east
across South Central Texas Wednesday into Wednesday night. The ECMWF
is indicating QPF with the disturbance over the CWA while the GFS is
dry. This will also need to be watched closely through the coming
days.