Texas Fall 2022

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps are in the low to mid 20s generally across Northeast Texas. 25 at my house. Haven't seen any teens but won't be surprised if there are a few by 7am.

[Iceresistance]

I got down to 19°F

[Cpv17]

Temps are in the low to mid 20s generally across Northeast Texas. 25 at my house. Haven't seen any teens but won't be surprised if there are a few by 7am.

That’s wild. We were in the low 40’s in southeast TX. 15-20 degree difference between southeast Texas and northeast Texas..crazy!

[Cpv17]

I got down to 19°F

19° is the second coldest temperature I’ve ever experienced living here in southeast TX. It got down to 19° here in early March of 2002.

It’s hard for me to find much information about that cold blast. I’ve tried to research it but couldn’t find much but that was one heck of an Artic blast for early March. It was so significant to me at the time. I remember it really well and it’s a big reason why I’m so interested in weather to begin with.

I want to say it was March 4th or 5th?

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is the first run to feature the December Cold Blasts. I am aware that it's at the end of the run, but this needs to be watched very closely.

The MJO is still expected to be in Phase 7 in early December.

[harp]

12z GFS is the first run to feature the December Cold Blasts. I am aware that it's at the end of the run, but this needs to be watched very closely.

The MJO is still expected to be in Phase 7 in early December.

I was just about to post that. Shows the mother load of cold coming down.

[HockeyTx82]

12z GFS is the first run to feature the December Cold Blasts. I am aware that it's at the end of the run, but this needs to be watched very closely.

The MJO is still expected to be in Phase 7 in early December.

I was just about to post that. Shows the mother load of cold coming down.

We all know what happened when it did that in Feb "21.......

We all thought it was out to lunch, but it won out.

[Itryatgolf]

I think we have a long break head of us in regards to cold and storminess. Mjo traversing the warmer phases will keep us warm for a while imo until mid December at the earliest.

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS has a Rain/Snow mix in my area for Black Friday!

[Ntxw]

Models are hinting at a cold surge the ending days of November. The Alaskan peninsula is prone. Better Atlantic side blocking will likely direct whatever comes down south.

[Itryatgolf]

Models are hinting at a cold surge the ending days of November. The Alaskan peninsula is prone. Better Atlantic side blocking will likely direct whatever comes down south.

Ntxw, you don't feel we will have an extended warm spell with mjo trajectory?

[Ntxw]

Models are hinting at a cold surge the ending days of November. The Alaskan peninsula is prone. Better Atlantic side blocking will likely direct whatever comes down south.

Ntxw, you don't feel we will have an extended warm spell with mjo trajectory?

MJO isn't everything. Above normal? Probably but likely not wall to wall torch. I noted earlier this season the troposphere is cold. You can have a great MJO like 2015 super Nino but without a cold Canada means little. You have a poor MJO but enough cold and bleeds. The EPO/WCAN domain is in a favorable state. If there was a raging cold pool in the GOA I'd buy torch.

[Itryatgolf]

Models are hinting at a cold surge the ending days of November. The Alaskan peninsula is prone. Better Atlantic side blocking will likely direct whatever comes down south.

Ntxw, you don't feel we will have an extended warm spell with mjo trajectory?

MJO isn't everything. Above normal? Probably but likely not wall to wall torch. I noted earlier this season the troposphere is cold. You can have a great MJO like 2015 super Nino but without a cold Canada means little. You have a poor MJO but enough cold and bleeds. The EPO/WCAN domain is in a favorable state. If there was a raging cold pool in the GOA I'd buy torch.

I hope we can get a good trajectory that promotes moisture and enough cold air to make things interesting moving forward. I know it's only mid-end of November, but trying to remain optimistic. We want a west based -nao for better cold trajectory south and sw. Just hope it's colder and stormier than last winter

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, you don't feel we will have an extended warm spell with mjo trajectory?

MJO isn't everything. Above normal? Probably but likely not wall to wall torch. I noted earlier this season the troposphere is cold. You can have a great MJO like 2015 super Nino but without a cold Canada means little. You have a poor MJO but enough cold and bleeds. The EPO/WCAN domain is in a favorable state. If there was a raging cold pool in the GOA I'd buy torch.

I hope we can get a good trajectory that promotes moisture and enough cold air to make things interesting moving forward. I know it's only mid-end of November, but trying to remain optimistic. We want a west based -nao for better cold trajectory south and sw. Just hope it's colder and stormier than last winter

Think the NAO and AO will play a bigger role later in December and Jan/Feb. That's how we'll beat Nina climo. But for now, if we can get the NPAC/Alaska to break for us then we'll see one of those better winters. Definitely not looking like a warm one.

[Iceresistance]

Models are hinting at a cold surge the ending days of November. The Alaskan peninsula is prone. Better Atlantic side blocking will likely direct whatever comes down south.

Ntxw, you don't feel we will have an extended warm spell with mjo trajectory?

MJO isn't everything. Above normal? Probably but likely not wall to wall torch. I noted earlier this season the troposphere is cold. You can have a great MJO like 2015 super Nino but without a cold Canada means little. You have a poor MJO but enough cold and bleeds. The EPO/WCAN domain is in a favorable state. If there was a raging cold pool in the GOA I'd buy torch.

The cool pool at the GOA has warmed up somewhat, I'm buying a cold shot for December as well, the GFS is showing consistency for this now.

The GEFS is not buying it, for now. Could be over dependent on the MJO.

[dpep4]

Orchard Park, NY is now up to 77 inches per WPC!

"81 inches with the 'fro." - Fletch dream

[Brent]

GFS is cold again for the start of December

Also if that cutoff low next weekend verifies the warmup will be muted anyway. No way it'll be that warm. Let's remember that 60s are still average. It just seems warm because it was so cold last week. It's not like we're going back to the 80s for most

[Iceresistance]

Orchard Park, NY is now up to 77 inches per WPC!

"81 inches with the 'fro." - Fletch dream

Orchard Park, NY got more snow, they are now up to 80 inches!

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1594337517733453824

[bubba hotep]

Looks like all the models are trending toward the GFS. The last holdout is the Euro, but the 06z was a big step towards the GFS. We could be looking at a very dynamic system moving across Texas later this week. Too bad all the cold air is gone.