Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Usually I am just an observer to your "expert" conversations, but I do have a question. The following was posted on the Discussion thread:

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Still no well-defined LLC. I can identify a broad and very weak circulation near 13.5N/61.7W (red crosshairs below). Winds very light across the islands. Recon won't be of much value if it flew today. I'm sure winds are in the 30kts or so with gusts 45-50 kts in squalls east of the wave axis, but that doesn't make it a TD/TS. And those squalls will be moving across the islands in the coming hours, so we'll have ground-based observations of winds in the squalls shortly. I still think that any development would be more likely late tomorrow or Sunday after it passes PR.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/98Lb.gif


Two questions. You see the low more south than what NHC says NW of ST Lucia? You still think it will be near or over PR despite the NW movement?


The reason for the discrepancy is that there's very little to identify as an LLC, as it's so poorly-defined. Really, it's just a tropical wave axis. With the SW wind continuing, you might stay west of the squalls, Luis. I think the weak center will track close to PR tomorrow with squalls remaining to the east of any center.

This analysis differs greatly with the last forecast that viewed 98L crossing Puerto Rico. Also, in the spaghetti models in other sites just one forecast follows the Puerto Rico route. Is there any way to know the intensity of what we can expect in Puerto Rico, if any?

First,welcome to Storm2k. In terms of intensity,is still early to say for sure how strong the system will be when it gets closer to PR. Maybe we can know more after the plane investigates 98L this afternoon so keep in touch here for the latest.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Dr Jeff Masters.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the VIrgin Islands, Puerto RIco, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

[cycloneye]

The late morning update from the San Juan NWS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.UPDATE...THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN IS CONTROLLED BY TWO TUTT
LOWS...ONE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST AND BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOWS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE CLOSELY DURING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND ALTHOUGH WE
ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND
FORWARD SPEED. NHC INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT
EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN
STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM

[Gustywind]

WEATHER FORECAST. Guadeloupe in orange for heavy rains and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr 12.10.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php

The tropical wave No. 37, very active, continues to cross the Caribbean arc. Time continued to deteriorate progressively with showers becoming more frequent, sometimes sustained and stormy. This bad weather continues and grows over the next 24 hours.


The tropical wave No. 37, very active, continues to cross the Caribbean arc. It has a high potential to become a depression. Weather continued to deteriorate progressively with showers becoming more frequent, sometimes sustained and stormy. This bad weather continues and grows over the next 24 hours. A significant strengthening of the south-easterly wind is also planned. Its average speed is around 40 to 50 km/h. Gusts of 70 to 90 km/h are also likely close to the strongest stormy grains.
Furthermore, this strengthening of wind accompanied by a deterioration of the State of the sea. It becomes strong, chopped and dangerous, mainly in the Atlantic and in channels, average trough 3 m to 3 m 50, maximum 5 to 6 m waves. No free improving conditions before Sunday.
At present, 80 to 100 litres per square metre of precipitation fell in 24 hours, on the relief of Basse-Terre, 10 and 40 litres per m2 on the rest of the territory. Gusts of 78 km/h were recorded on la Désirade, 65 km/h at Marie-Galante. This means hollow Sea 3 m 50, max: 6 m 70 at la Grande Vigie.
The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already wet soils can result in strong accumulations of water, landslides and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.

[BatzVI]

Stay safe Gusty.....did you see the note I sent you?

[abajan]

Things had calmed down for a while but we're now experiencing the strongest winds we've had from this system so far. I estimate some of the gusts to be easily in excess of 50 mph.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012


.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN...WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE
WEST AND A RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO THE EAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A CLOSED LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND USVI. AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE
ESTABLISHES TO THE EAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT
OVERALL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
PROBABLY INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS
STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR
TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND AND TJSJ THIS EVENING. AFTER 13/16Z...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR. THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST...AT 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 87 / 70 70 50 50
STT 79 88 79 88 / 70 70 50 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN...WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE
WEST AND A RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO THE EAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A CLOSED LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND USVI. AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE
ESTABLISHES TO THE EAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT
OVERALL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
PROBABLY INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS
STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR
TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND AND TJSJ THIS EVENING. AFTER 13/16Z...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR. THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST...AT 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 87 / 70 70 50 50
STT 79 88 79 88 / 70 70 50 60

[BatzVI]

Though not a TD or TS yet, but with what looks like some bad conditions, shouldn't a "Special Tropical Weather Disturbance" statement be made at least.

I'm hoping to be able to fly to St. Croix tomorrow by seaplane, but not sure it'll happen. Flight doesn't leave until 1:40pm.

Stay safe all...

[Macrocane]

Last HPC Caribbean discussion of the week. Improvement of the weather in Central America but heavy rainfall is expected in the eastern Caribbean islands:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM PATTY CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 72.0W...WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35KT.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 02KT. SEE NHC ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS.

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 12/00 UTC: AT 500 HPA THE MODELS INITIALIZE A
CLOSED HIGH JUST EAST OF TAMAULIPAS/SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHERE IT IS
TO MEANDER DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE IT WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS TAMAULIPAS TOWARDS NUEVO LEON. THIS HIGH IS TO
ANCHOR A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA-THE
GULF TO THE SOUTHERN USA. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE PATTERN TENDS TO
FLATTEN LATER IN THE CYCLE...IT IS TO PERSIST ACROSS MEXICO-GULF
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS...IT IS TO
ESTABLISH A SUBSIDENCE CAP. THIS IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO BY THROUGH THE EVENING...WHILE
EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 30-36 HRS. THIS IS
TO ALSO SUSTAIN A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO...PRESSING AGAINST THIS RIDGE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PERTURBATIONS ARE TO LIFT ACROSS BAJA PENINSULA-SONORA/SINALOA TO
THE SOUTHWEST USA. THIS IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORTS WHILE
FAVORING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL ON DAY 03 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

EAST OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AT 250 HPA...A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN-NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT 72-84 HRS. AT 500 HPA THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS TENDS TO WEAKEN AS THE
CYCLE PROGRESSES...MEANWHILE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. AT LOW LEVELS...IT IS TO EXTEND A FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS IS TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALSO...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
USA...A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO-NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS
IN THIS AREA ARE TO PEAK AT 20-25KT. THE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS
TO FAVOR A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS-EASTERN-CENTRAL CUBA-JAMAICA TO NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THIS IS TO THEN DISSIPATE BY 42-48 HRS. THE
NORTHERLIES FAVOR TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO-NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY TO
AFFECT NORTHERN CHIAPAS-TABASCO-CAMPECHE. ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS
TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH 24-30 HRS. SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY...WHILE OVER THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CUBA-JAMAICA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.

THE NHC FORECAST TS PATTY TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO MEANDER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WITH REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON DAY 02. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH WANING
SHEAR LINE OVER THE BAHAMAS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY. SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY COULD THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA
THROUGH DAY 03...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.

FARTHER EAST...A TUTT LOW CENTERS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST...THE 250 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS TO START
LIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES.
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...MEANWHILE...IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...DRIFTING NORTH OF LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA LATER
THIS EVENING...THEN NEARLY DISSIPATES AS IT NEARS THE GULF OF
URABA/THE DARIEN IN PANAMA BY 48-54 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT
TENDS TO SHEAR APART...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON. UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL BRISK EASTERLY
TRADES...EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
COLOMBIA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD WEST INTO THE DARIEN IN
PANAMA THROUGH 60-72 HRS...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
61W 62W 63W 65W 66W 67W 68W TW
75W 77W 79W 81W 82W 83W DISP. TW
98W 101W 104W 107W 110W 113W 116W EW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W SUSTAINS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND
WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO EVOLVE. THUS FAR...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ECMWF IS DOING A BETTER JOB THAN THE GFS-UKMET IN
INITIALIZING/FORECASTING AREAS OF CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS FEATURE. AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE TUTT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MOISTURE/CONVECTION IS TO QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD/FRENCH ISLANDS. IN A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR ECHO
TRAINING...IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 125-250MM/DAY. THROUGH 42/48 HRS THIS WILL EXPAND/BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN WHILE RELOCATING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. ACROSS JAMAICA IT IS
TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA-EASTERN PANAMA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY...WHILE OVER
COSTA RICA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY...WHILE OVER NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM BY 48-60 HRS.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 98W IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO TO COLIMA/NAYARIT IN CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THIS AREA
IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[Macrocane]

Now it's Rafael, be safe guys!!

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,we have Tropical Storm Rafael now so this is turning more serious for the islands that will be impacted. We have a lot of TS Watches and Warnings issued. Lets prepare for the best but hoping for the best. Stay safe and dry my friends.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
730 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN...GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[msbee]

yep, we're gonna get a lot of rain and wind. we just had a heavy downpour a few minutes ago.
I expect the squalls to be coming in more frequently as things progress.

[cycloneye]

Local statement by the San Juan NWS.

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
814 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE NOW BEEN
ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SURROUNDING MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE
PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0N...LONGITUDE 63.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE NOW BEEN
ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

AMZ712-735-742-745-130615-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.1017.121013T0014Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
814 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

[Gustywind]

Be safe and dry my friends! Don't let guard down. I will keep your informed.

Gustywind

[msbee]

FROM ST. MAARTEN:

News Release – BROADCAST MEDIA ADVISORY

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org

For Immediate Release: Friday, October 12, 2012/N319-Advisory #2 – BROADCAST MEDIA ADVISORY

Tropical Wave/Low#98 becomes Tropical Storm Rafael; Country under a Tropical Storm Warning; Public advised to monitor progress of storm

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Tropical Wave/Low#98 has now become Tropical Storm (TS) Rafael, the 17th storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the country according to the Meteorological Department of Curacao (MDC).
A Tropical Storm Warning means that storm conditions are expected within 36 hours somewhere within the warning area. Residents are advised to monitor radio broadcasts and weather reports for updates.

According to the MDC, TS Rafael is forecasted to pass approximately 55 miles from Sint Maarten on Saturday afternoon as a moderate tropical storm.

Residents are advised to secure loose items in and around their yards and businesses as a precautionary measure; garbage pails should also be properly secured.

MDC says impact on local conditions could be gale force winds up to tropical storm force on Saturday. Seas will be moderate to very rough on Saturday with waves between eight to 12 feet.

MDC says rainfall is expected to be heavy, three to six inches in some locations with the possibility of street flooding in low lying areas.

Motorists are advised to exercise caution while driving in low lying areas which could flood – street flooding - due to heavy and persistent rainfall.
Motorists driving near hillsides are also asked to exercise caution with respect to possible rock falls.

TS Rafael at 7.30pm was approximately 125 miles West-Southwest of Dominica, and moving North-Northwest at 12 miles per hour; highest wind speeds are 40 miles per hour.

The 10 Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) that form the country’s’ disaster management organization were placed on alert earlier today-Friday by the Office of Disaster Management.

The ESFs are: GEBE Utility Company, Telem Telecommunications, Public Works Dept., Fire Dept., Police, Ministry of Public Health and Social Development, Dept of Communications, Ministry of General Affairs, and the Ministry of Tourism, Economy, Transportation and Telecommunications.


Roddy Heyliger (Email/Blackberry: roddyheyliger at gmail.com; roddy.heyliger at sintmaartengov.org; Cells: +1 721 520-4217, 581-6323)

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten

[BZSTORM]

Keep safe all of you in Rafael's path we all know Oct storms can turn out to be more than anticipated and deviate from forecast tracks, stay alert and safe.

[cycloneye]

How many miles center passes from my location as of 11 PM EDT advisory.

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.0N, 64.5W or about 104.0 miles (167.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 3 hours and 36 minutes from now.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,nothing bad occurs in any of the islands. I will keep all informed on what occurs in PR.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
530 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR ST. LUCIA...

AT 0530 AST...0930 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA